主要财务指标预测 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 10,665 | 11,081 | 11,713 | 12,416 | | 收入增长率% | -2.93 | 3.90 | 5.70 | 6.00 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 538 | 707 | 841 | 974 | | 利润增长率% | 24.80 | 31.44 | 18.97 | 15.79 | | 毛利率% | 28.36 | 28.50 | 28.80 | 29.10 | | 摊薄 EPS(元) | 0.62 | 0.82 | 0.98 | 1.13 | | PE | 27.23 | 20.71 | 17.41 | 15.04 | | PB | 4.79 | 4.03 | 3.44 | 2.98 | | PS | 1.37 | 1.32 | 1.25 | 1.18 | 公司点评 · 食品饮料行业 低温业务持续高增，盈利能力稳健提升 —— 2025 年三季报业绩点评 2025 年 10 月 31 日 核心观点 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 21 yuan [2][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 8.434 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.49%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 623 million yuan, up 31.48% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.908 billion yuan, a 4.42% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 226 million yuan, reflecting a 27.67% year-on-year growth [2]. - The company continues to see strong growth in its low-temperature dairy segment, with double-digit growth rates, while new product contributions have reached new highs [9]. - The sales structure and expense ratios have been optimized, leading to a net profit margin of 7.99% in Q3 2025, an increase of 1.45 percentage points year-on-year [9]. - The company is expected to outperform the industry due to its strong product and organizational capabilities, with a focus on high-margin low-temperature dairy products [9]. Financial Summary - For 2024A, total revenue is projected at 10.665 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -2.9%. By 2025E, revenue is expected to rise to 11.201 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.0% growth [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 538 million yuan in 2024A, increasing to 717 million yuan in 2025E, which represents a growth rate of 24.8% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is estimated to be 0.62 yuan for 2024A, increasing to 0.83 yuan for 2025E [5].