晨会纪要（R3） 晨会纪要 2025 年 08 月 28 日 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 3800.35 | -1.76 | | 深证成指 | 12295.07 | -1.43 | | 创业板指 | 2723.20 | -0.69 | | 科创 50 | 1272.56 | 0.13 | | 北证 50 | 1550.44 | -2.60 | | 沪深 300 | 4386.13 | -1.49 | 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 -5% 15% 35% 55% 2024-08 2024-11 2025-02 2025-05 上证指数 沪深300 | 黄红卫 | 分析师 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号:S0530519010001 | | | huanghongwei@hnchasing.com | | | 周舒鹏 | 研究助理 | | zhoushupeng@hnchasing.com | | 晨会聚焦 一、财信研究观点 【市场策略】大盘放量调整，沪指险守 3800 点 【基金研究】基金数据日跟 ...

Core Insights - The European offshore wind power market is expected to quadruple in demand driven by "net zero emissions" and "energy independence" goals, with a projected cumulative installation of 126GW from 2025 to 2034, averaging over 12GW annually, which is more than four times the average installation from 2020 to 2024 [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Growth and Demand - The offshore wind power market in Europe is projected to grow significantly, with the underwater foundation market expected to double to 25 billion yuan in the next three years and exceed 40 billion yuan by 2030 [1][6] - The submarine cable market is anticipated to reach 30 billion yuan per year by 2030, representing an approximate 200% increase from 2025 [1][6] Group 2: Policy and Macro Environment - The macroeconomic environment is expected to improve from 2024, with significant policy support for offshore wind development, including increased auction price limits and extended contract durations [3][4] - The EU has set a roadmap to completely eliminate dependence on Russian gas imports by 2027, further emphasizing the need for offshore wind as a key component of energy transition [2][3] Group 3: Supply Chain Dynamics - There is a growing supply chain bottleneck in Europe for offshore wind equipment, with local manufacturers facing long delivery times, while Chinese companies are expanding capacity and can effectively fill this gap [4][5] - The UK shows the highest enthusiasm for offshore wind development, with significant policy support and a pressing need for imported equipment due to a lack of domestic production capacity [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the wind power equipment industry [1]. Core Insights - The report addresses key issues including the current development status of offshore wind power in Europe, the reasons for the three-year downturn, policy logic behind the development, and the inevitable market space for China's offshore wind industry to export to Europe [13]. - European offshore wind demand is expected to quadruple, driven by the goals of "net-zero emissions" and "energy independence" [27][32]. - The next decade is critical for Europe's energy transition and independence, with an expected cumulative addition of 126GW of offshore wind capacity from 2025 to 2034, which is over four times the average annual installation from 2020 to 2024 [32][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Offshore Wind Power Market Importance - Europe is the second-largest offshore wind market globally, with a cumulative installed capacity of 36.73GW as of the end of 2024, accounting for approximately 44% of the global total [14][22]. - The average annual installation from 2020 to 2024 was 3.03GW, showing significant acceleration [15][29]. 2. Supporting Energy Independence - The EU has set ambitious offshore wind development targets, aiming for over 160GW by 2030, with a focus on reducing reliance on natural gas imports [38]. - The dependency on natural gas imports is projected to be 51% in 2024, highlighting the urgency for offshore wind development [21]. 3. Recent Trends and Challenges - The offshore wind sector in Europe faced a downturn from 2022 to 2024 due to macroeconomic factors, leading to project delays and cancellations [20][36]. - However, improvements in the macro environment and policy support are expected to drive a resurgence in offshore wind development [36]. 4. Cost Reduction and Policy Synergy - The report indicates that macroeconomic factors are easing, and large-scale projects are helping to reduce costs, which will further accelerate offshore wind development in Europe [36][38]. 5. Supply Chain Bottlenecks and Opportunities for Chinese Manufacturers - European supply chain constraints are becoming apparent, with local manufacturers facing order backlogs, creating opportunities for Chinese companies to fill the gap [5][36]. - The report emphasizes the complementary advantages between China and Europe in the offshore wind supply chain [4][36]. 6. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report highlights several key companies in the offshore wind sector, including 大金重工 (Dajin Heavy Industry), 东方电缆 (Oriental Cable), and 明阳智能 (Mingyang Smart Energy), among others, with varying investment ratings and profit forecasts [5][6].

Summary of Offshore Wind Projects and Market Insights Industry Overview - The offshore wind market outside mainland China is experiencing significant developments, with a total auction scale of approximately 30GW from January to July 2025, down from 58GW in 2024, primarily due to stagnation in the North American market, while Europe and the Asia-Pacific regions remain stable [1][5] - The expected new installed capacity for offshore wind projects outside mainland China in 2025 is projected to exceed last year's figures, with a notable increase in Europe and the Asia-Pacific regions, while North America remains stagnant [1][9] Key Insights - **Project Progress**: The offshore wind project progress outside mainland China has accelerated in 2025, with an expected new grid-connected capacity of about 5 to 6GW, significantly higher than the 3 to 4GW level in 2024. Europe is the main market, contributing approximately 5GW, while the Asia-Pacific region accounts for over 1GW [3][9] - **FID and Construction**: From January to July 2025, the FID (Final Investment Decision) volume reached 6.5GW, roughly in line with the 7GW from the previous year, with expectations to surpass last year's total. The majority of FID activity is concentrated in Europe (approximately 5.6GW) and the Asia-Pacific region (around 1GW) [6][9] - **New Construction**: The new construction scale outside mainland China reached 12GW from January to July 2025, an increase from less than 10GW in the previous year, indicating a significant uptick in market activity, particularly in Poland, Germany, the UK, South Korea, and Taiwan [7][9] Market Dynamics - **Regional Differences**: The development pace of offshore wind projects outside mainland China differs from domestic projects, with a similar overall process but distinct phases such as site auctions and leasing, followed by development preparations and equipment tenders [4] - **Future Projections**: The offshore wind market is expected to continue growing in the coming years, with new installed capacity potentially reaching 10GW or more by 2026, and further growth to 15GW or even 20GW annually thereafter [10] Domestic Companies' Performance - **International Expansion**: Domestic companies in the supply chain, such as cable and pile manufacturers, have achieved significant order volumes and deliveries in overseas markets, benefiting from net profit advantages due to exports [2][11] - **Wind Turbine Manufacturers**: Leading domestic wind turbine manufacturers are actively pursuing export opportunities, with notable orders in onshore wind and early investments in offshore wind projects in Europe, positioning them favorably in the international market [12][13] Investment Opportunities - **Focus Areas**: Investment recommendations emphasize the offshore wind sector, particularly in companies involved in piles and cables, as well as wind turbine manufacturers that have successfully secured overseas orders. The anticipated recovery in profit margins post-price stabilization presents additional investment opportunities [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the wind power industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [32]. Core Insights - The report highlights that during the week, 7.4GW of onshore wind projects were awarded at an average price of 1485 CNY/kW. Year-to-date, a total of 52.7GW of wind projects have been awarded, with 6.8GW offshore and 45.9GW onshore [10][12]. - The report emphasizes the significant growth in offshore wind projects, with a total of 69GW in various stages including competitive allocation, approval, and construction as of June 29, 2025. Key provinces with substantial projects include Guangdong, Shandong, and Fujian [15][18]. - Investment suggestions focus on three main lines: high reserves of domestic offshore wind projects, robust onshore wind bidding in 2024, and regional growth in overseas installations. Companies to watch include Mingyang Smart Energy, Dongfang Cable, and Zhongtian Technology [16]. Summary by Sections Wind Turbine Data - In the week, 0.6GW of onshore wind was tendered, with a total of 43.8GW tendered year-to-date, split between 3.6GW offshore and 40.2GW onshore [10][12]. Offshore Wind Progress - As of June 29, 2025, the offshore wind project pipeline includes 69GW in competitive allocation, 16GW approved, 7GW tendered, 9GW in cable tendering, and 15GW under construction. The first batch of units from the Jiangsu Guoxin Dafeng 850,000 kW offshore wind project has successfully connected to the grid [15][18]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three investment themes: 1) High reserves of domestic offshore wind projects with supportive policies, 2) Increased bidding for onshore wind in 2024, and 3) Growth in overseas installations for domestic cable and component manufacturers. Recommended companies include Mingyang Smart Energy, Dongfang Cable, and Zhongtian Technology [16].

Investment Rating - The overall industry strategy is optimistic, with expectations for the future six months indicating that the overall return of the industry will exceed the CSI 300 index by more than 5% [31] Core Viewpoints - CATL is set to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is expected to boost the entire new energy industry chain. The accompanying policies for solar storage are gradually improving, and the current low expectations in the industry present a good opportunity for investment [3][4] - The market for lithium iron phosphate is expanding, with companies like Fulin Precision and Hunan Youneng benefiting. Data from GGII shows that the global installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries reached 51.5% in Q1 2025, surpassing half for the first time [4][24] - The trend of leading technology companies transitioning from material suppliers to comprehensive solution providers is noteworthy, with companies like Putailai and BTR benefiting from this shift [4] - The solar storage market is expected to gradually recover as supporting policies are implemented, with recent mechanisms for electricity pricing being discussed in Guangdong [5][26] - The integration of AI in the new energy sector continues to show promise, with Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus demonstrating significant technological advancements [6][27] Summary by Sections Industry Chain Prices - The price of lithium carbonate has decreased by 5% over the past week, indicating market fluctuations [11] - The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is currently at 3.15 million yuan per ton, reflecting a decrease of 5.26% [12] Industry News Tracking - The Guangdong 136 document is expected to lead to the implementation of pricing mechanisms for new energy projects, with execution periods set at 14 years for offshore wind and 12 years for other renewable projects [23][26] - The demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries is surging overseas, indicating a significant growth opportunity in the global market [23][24] Company News Tracking - CATL plans to raise $5 billion through its IPO on May 20, marking the largest IPO in four years [4][24] - Daikin Heavy Industries' subsidiary has signed a contract for a European offshore wind project worth approximately 1 billion yuan, expected to contribute 26.46% to its 2024 revenue [29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the wind power industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [37]. Core Insights - The report highlights a total of 2.8GW of land-based wind power projects tendered during the week, with an average winning bid price of 1723 CNY/kW for land-based turbines and 2545 CNY/kW for offshore turbines [12][16]. - Year-to-date, a total of 37.4GW has been tendered, with 34.3GW being land-based and 3.1GW offshore [12]. - The report emphasizes the significant growth potential in the offshore wind sector, driven by high project reserves and supportive policies, with expectations for concentrated project launches in 2025 [23]. Summary by Sections Wind Turbine Data - During the week, 2.8GW of land-based wind turbines were tendered, with major contributions from State Power Investment Corporation (2.5GW) and Huadian (0.2GW) [12]. - Year-to-date, 34.8GW of wind turbines have been awarded, with 30.6GW being land-based and 4.3GW offshore [14]. Submarine Cable Data - The report notes that 0.3GW of submarine cables and 0.9GW of onshore cables were awarded during the week, with a total of 4.3GW of submarine cables tendered year-to-date [17]. Offshore Wind Progress - As of May 11, 2025, there are 31GW of offshore wind projects in various stages, including competitive allocation, approval, and construction [19]. - The report identifies Guangdong, Shandong, and Fujian as provinces with significant project reserves, totaling 30GW, 16GW, and 13GW respectively [19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes in the wind power sector: high reserves of offshore wind projects, increased land-based wind tenders, and regional growth in overseas installations [23]. - Companies to watch include Mingyang Smart Energy, Oriental Cable, Zhongtian Technology, and others [23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the wind power industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [6][35]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant bidding activity in the wind power sector, with 5.8GW of onshore wind turbines bid this week, contributing to a total of 31.3GW bid so far in 2025, with offshore and onshore projects accounting for 3.1GW and 28.2GW respectively [12][20]. - The report notes that the average winning bid price for onshore wind turbines is 1373 CNY/kW, while for offshore wind turbines it is 2626 CNY/kW, indicating competitive pricing in the market [16][20]. - The report emphasizes three main investment themes in the wind power sector: high domestic offshore wind project reserves, robust onshore wind bidding activity, and regional growth in overseas installations [20]. Summary by Sections Wind Turbine Data - This week saw a total of 5.8GW of onshore wind turbine bids, with major contributions from various companies [12]. - Year-to-date, a total of 31.3GW has been bid, with offshore projects at 3.1GW and onshore at 28.2GW [12]. Offshore Wind Progress - As of April 25, 2025, there are 30GW of offshore wind projects in various stages, including competitive bidding, approval, and construction [17]. - The report highlights that Guangdong, Shandong, and Fujian have the highest number of existing projects, with 30GW, 16GW, and 13GW respectively [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three investment lines: high reserves of domestic offshore wind projects, increased bidding activity for onshore wind, and growth in overseas installations [20]. - Companies to watch include Mingyang Smart Energy, Dongfang Cable, Zhongtian Technology, and others [20].