Core Viewpoint - The electrolytic aluminum industry is in an upward cycle, benefiting from rising aluminum prices and low coal prices, leading to significant profit elasticity for China Hongqiao (01378) [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, with a gross profit of 20.8 billion yuan, up 30 billion yuan, representing a growth rate of 17% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 12.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32%, with a basic earnings per share of 1.314 yuan, up approximately 36% [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The revenue from liquid aluminum alloys and aluminum alloy ingots was approximately 51.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%, with a gross profit of 13.1 billion yuan, up 9.5 billion yuan, representing an 8% growth [2] - The revenue from alumina was about 20.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28%, with a gross profit of 5.9 billion yuan, up 18 billion yuan, representing a 44% growth [2] - The revenue from aluminum processing products was approximately 8.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, with a gross profit of 1.9 billion yuan, up 2.8 billion yuan, representing an 18% increase [3] Group 3: Capacity and Cost Management - The increase in shareholding in Yunnan Hongtai from 75% to 100% will enhance the company's rights to 203,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity, resulting in an increase of approximately 40,600 tons in equity capacity [4] - The average electricity price in Yunnan is expected to decrease from 0.49 yuan per kWh in the first half of 2024 to 0.42 yuan per kWh in the second half, significantly reducing production costs [5] Group 4: Mining Operations - The profit from the Guinea bauxite mine increased to approximately 1.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 119% [6] - The company has established a strong raw material supply capability through its overseas bauxite layout and is expected to enhance profits with the upcoming West Simandou iron ore project [6] Group 5: Shareholder Returns - The company plans to repurchase shares for no less than 3 billion Hong Kong dollars, reflecting confidence in its long-term value [7] - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio of around 50% since 2021, with a cash dividend total of 13.9 billion yuan in 2024 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The electrolytic aluminum industry is in an upward cycle, benefiting from rising aluminum prices and low coal prices, with China Hongqiao (01378) showing significant profit elasticity and increased equity stakes, leading to a projected net profit of 25.7 billion yuan, 27.8 billion yuan, and 30 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%; gross profit was 20.8 billion yuan, up 30 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 17%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32% [1] - The company's basic earnings per share reached 1.314 yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 36% [1] Group 2: Business Segments - Revenue from liquid aluminum alloys and aluminum alloy ingots in H1 2025 was approximately 51.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%, with a gross profit of 13.1 billion yuan, up 9.5 billion yuan [2] - Revenue from alumina in H1 2025 was approximately 20.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28%, with a gross profit of 5.9 billion yuan, up 44% [2] - Revenue from aluminum processing products in H1 2025 was approximately 8.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, with a gross profit of 1.9 billion yuan, up 18% [3] Group 3: Capacity and Cost Management - The increase in equity stake in Yunnan Hongtai from 75% to 95% will enhance the company's rights to 203,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity, with an expected increase of approximately 30,600 tons in equity production [4] - The company plans to relocate production to Yunnan, where electricity costs are significantly lower during the wet season, leading to reduced production costs [5] Group 4: Mining Operations - The company's share of profits from joint ventures in H1 2025 was approximately 1.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 119% [6] - The Guinea bauxite project has seen a significant increase in shipment volume, with a year-on-year growth of 35% [6] - The company is also developing the WCS iron ore project in Guinea, which is expected to contribute to profit starting in 2026 [6] Group 5: Shareholder Returns - The company plans to repurchase shares for no less than 3 billion Hong Kong dollars, reflecting confidence in its long-term value [7] - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio of around 50% since 2021, with a cash dividend total of 13.9 billion yuan in 2024 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company has established a complete aluminum product industry chain, making it one of the world's leading aluminum manufacturers, with a focus on vertical integration and sustainability [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Chain and Production Capacity - The company has built a complete closed-loop industry chain from bauxite mining to aluminum deep processing, including recycling and automotive components [1]. - The current electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 6.459 million tons, ranking second in China, while alumina production capacity is 21 million tons [1][2]. - The company is implementing a "north aluminum south move" strategy to adapt to green trends, with plans to relocate production capacity from Shandong to Yunnan, targeting 3.451 million tons in Shandong and 3.008 million tons in Yunnan by 2027 [2]. Group 2: Cost Management and Supply Chain - The company has a self-sufficient power generation rate of approximately 50% due to its self-built thermal power plants, which helps in cost management [2]. - The alumina required for production is primarily sourced from self-production in Shandong and external procurement in Yunnan, with bauxite imported from Guinea and stable supply channels established in Australia and Indonesia [2][3]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Future Outlook - The company’s alumina production capacity is 21 million tons, with significant contributions from both domestic and overseas projects, leading to a projected revenue increase of 34.7% and gross profit growth of 142.2% in 2024 [3]. - The company aims to enhance its risk resilience and performance stability through vertical integration and proactive overseas resource acquisition [4]. - Expected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are projected to be 22.64 billion, 24.21 billion, and 25.39 billion yuan, respectively, with a corresponding EPS of 2.44, 2.61, and 2.73 yuan [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company has established a complete aluminum product industry chain and is one of the world's leading aluminum manufacturers, with a focus on vertical integration and sustainability [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Chain and Capacity - The company has built a complete closed-loop industry chain from bauxite mining to aluminum deep processing, including recycling and automotive components [2]. - The company currently has an electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 6.459 million tons, ranking second in China, and an alumina production capacity of 21 million tons [2][3]. - The company is implementing a "north aluminum south move" strategy to align with green trends, with plans to relocate electrolytic aluminum capacity from Shandong to Yunnan, expecting capacities of 3.451 million tons and 3.008 million tons respectively by 2027 [3]. Group 2: Cost and Supply Chain Management - The company has a self-sufficient power supply rate of approximately 50% due to its self-built thermal power plants, which helps in cost savings [3]. - The alumina required for production in Shandong is mainly self-produced, while the Yunnan region sources alumina externally [3]. - The company has established stable supply channels for bauxite from Guinea, Australia, and Indonesia, ensuring a steady supply of raw materials [3][4]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Dividends - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 22.64 billion, 24.21 billion, and 25.39 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 2.44, 2.61, and 2.73 yuan [5]. - The company has a high dividend yield, projected at 6.7%, 10%, and 13.6% for 2022 to 2024, indicating a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders [5]. Group 4: Technological Advancements and Sustainability - The company has advanced aluminum deep processing technology and is actively developing recycled aluminum and circular economy projects [7]. - The company completed a 20,000-ton waste aluminum recycling project in 2023, aiming to become a competitive player in the green aluminum packaging industry [7].

Group 1 - The company has a complete aluminum product supply chain and is one of the world's leading aluminum manufacturers [1] - The company aims to become a world-leading century-old manufacturing enterprise with a focus on high dividend returns, similar to Shenhua [1] - The company has a projected net profit of 22.64 billion, 24.21 billion, and 25.39 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 2.44, 2.61, and 2.73 CNY [1] Group 2 - The company has maintained an electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 6.459 million tons since 2017, with a strategic shift of production from Shandong to Yunnan [2] - The company’s electrolytic aluminum production is primarily based on large anode prebaked electrolytic cells with a current intensity of over 400KA, which helps reduce casting costs [2] - The company has a self-sufficient power supply rate of approximately 50% due to its self-built thermal power plants [2] Group 3 - The company has an abundant alumina production capacity of 21 million tons, with significant contributions from both domestic and overseas projects [3] - The company’s Indonesian alumina project is the first large-scale alumina smelting plant built by a Chinese enterprise overseas [3] - The company established the "Winning Alliance" in 2015 to secure stable upstream bauxite supply, achieving a bauxite production of 44.188 million tons in 2023 [3] Group 4 - The company has advanced aluminum deep processing technology and is actively developing recycled aluminum and circular economy projects [4] - The company has an aluminum processing capacity of 1.5665 million tons, with significant breakthroughs in high-end aluminum materials [4] - The company completed a 200,000-ton waste aluminum recycling project in 2023, aiming to become a competitive player in the green aluminum packaging industry [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][6]. Core Views - The company is recognized as one of the world's leading aluminum manufacturers, with a complete vertical integration of the aluminum product supply chain, enhancing its resilience and performance stability [5][14]. - The company aims to become a century-old leading manufacturing enterprise, similar to Shenhua, with a strong emphasis on high dividend returns for investors [6][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has established a complete aluminum product supply chain, integrating mining, alumina, primary aluminum, aluminum deep processing, and recycling [5][14]. - As of March 2025, the company has an electrolytic aluminum capacity of 6.459 million tons and alumina capacity of 21 million tons [14][37]. 2. Electrolytic Aluminum Business - The company currently holds an electrolytic aluminum capacity of 6.459 million tons, with production primarily located in Shandong and Yunnan [37][39]. - The company is implementing a "North Aluminum South Move" strategy to relocate production capacity from Shandong to Yunnan, with expected capacities of 3.451 million tons and 3.008 million tons by 2027, respectively [37][44]. 3. Alumina Business - The company has a robust alumina capacity of 21 million tons, with significant contributions from both domestic and overseas sources [5][19]. - The alumina project in Indonesia is notable as the first large-scale alumina refinery established by a Chinese company overseas [5][25]. 4. Aluminum Processing Business - The company has advanced aluminum processing technology and is actively developing recycled aluminum projects, aiming to become a competitive player in the green aluminum packaging industry [5][6]. - As of 2024, the company has an aluminum processing capacity of 1.5665 million tons, with significant growth in high-precision aluminum products [5][6]. 5. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company forecasts a net profit of 22.64 billion RMB in 2025, with an EPS of 2.44 RMB, reflecting a PE ratio of 7.9 times based on the market value as of July 30, 2025 [6][7]. - The company has shown a historical growth trend in revenue and net profit, with a record net profit of 22.372 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 95.21% [17][19].