事件：公司发布2025 年半年报。2025H1 实现营收290.8 亿元，同比增加18.0%，归母净利27.7 亿元，同 比增加9.9%，扣非归母净利27.6 亿元，同比增加15.4%。单季度看，25Q2 营收146.7 亿元，同比增加 10.4%，环比增加1.8%，归母净利17.9 亿元，同比增长32.3%，环比增长84.1%，扣非归母净利17.9 亿 元，同比增长32.0%，环比增长84.2%，业绩符合前期业绩预告。Q2 业绩环比大幅增长主要由于氧化铝 价格走弱。 投资建议：公司电解铝权益产能大，业绩弹性高，绿色铝未来价值潜力大，我们预计公司2025-2027 年 将实现归母净利67.2 亿元、80.0 亿元和84.2 亿元，对应现价的PE分别为10、8 和8 倍，维持"推荐"评 级。 风险提示：电解铝需求不及预期，云南限产超预期，电解铝行业纳入碳交易进展不及预期。 资源拓展持续推进，提升铝土矿保障能力。2025 上半年资源获取成果显著，成功竞拍昭通太阳坝铝土 矿普查探矿权，积极推进文山、鹤庆等探矿权的探转采和自有探矿权勘查和空白区找矿等工作，阳宗海 5 万吨铝资源综合利用项目顺利投产，建成"全自动一体化 ...

上半年公司分占联营公司溢利18亿，较去年同期8亿显著提升，同时也超过去年全年的17.6亿。费用方 面，上半年公司各项费用总体呈现下降趋势，尤其是得益于公司持续优化债务结构，财务费用减少较为 明显。 大规模高频回购彰显信心 截至上半年，公司已回购及注销1.87亿股，合计金额24亿。8.15日公司宣布新一轮回购计划，总额不低 于30亿港元。2025年在公司股价不断突破的同时，年内回购金额已创历史新高，彰显了公司对未来发展 的信心。 供需缺口持续扩大不可逆转，电解铝从再分配走向再扩张 智通财经APP获悉，中泰证券发布研报称，维持中国宏桥(01378)"买入"评级，考虑到宏观情绪改善，上 调对其2025/2026/2027年铝价假设为2.05/2.05/2.15万元/吨，对氧化铝价格假设维持3150/3000/2800元/ 吨，预计公司2025-27年净利润分别为240/242/269亿元。8月15日中国宏桥发布公告，2025上半年公司实 现营业收入810.39亿元，同比+10%;归母净利润124亿元，同比+35%。业绩较前期预告一致，同时公司 宣布新一轮回购计划，总额不低于30亿港元。 中泰证券主要观点如下： 量价 ...

中泰证券（600918）发布研报称，维持中国宏桥(01378)"买入"评级，考虑到宏观情绪改善，上调对其 2025/2026/2027年铝价假设为2.05/2.05/2.15万元/吨，对氧化铝价格假设维持3150/3000/2800元/吨，预计 公司2025-27年净利润分别为240/242/269亿元。8月15日中国宏桥发布公告，2025上半年公司实现营业收 入810.39亿元，同比+10%;归母净利润124亿元，同比+35%。业绩较前期预告一致，同时公司宣布新一 轮回购计划，总额不低于30亿港元。 截至上半年，公司已回购及注销1.87亿股，合计金额24亿。8.15日公司宣布新一轮回购计划，总额不低 于30亿港元。2025年在公司股价不断突破的同时，年内回购金额已创历史新高，彰显了公司对未来发展 的信心。 供需缺口持续扩大不可逆转，电解铝从再分配走向再扩张 电解铝供给国内产能几近天花板，海外产能则"投建成本高、建设周期长"，电解铝环节"类资源"属性日 益凸显，供应增速仅为1%附近。而需求端，同样受益于泛新能源、电网建设以及包装消费的合力拉动 将有效拉动电解铝需求达到2-3%。供不应求趋势不可逆，电解铝环节盈 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in H1 2025, with revenue and net profit growth, driven by increased aluminum prices and operational efficiency [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 81.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit of 13.55 billion yuan, up 35.4% year-on-year, aligning with previous forecasts [1]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.36 billion yuan, reflecting a 35.0% increase year-on-year [1]. Segment Performance - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Revenue reached 51.88 billion yuan, a 5.2% increase year-on-year, with sales volume of 2.906 million tons, up 2.4%. The average selling price rose to 17,853 yuan/ton, a 2.7% increase [1]. - **Alumina**: Revenue was 20.66 billion yuan, a 27.5% increase year-on-year, with sales volume of 6.368 million tons, up 15.6%. The average selling price increased by 10.3% to 3,243 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum Processing**: Revenue reached 8.07 billion yuan, a 6.5% increase year-on-year, with sales volume of 392,000 tons, up 3.5%. The average selling price was 20,615 yuan/ton, a 2.9% increase [1]. Share Buyback and Dividends - The company spent 2.61 billion Hong Kong dollars on share buybacks in H1 2025 and plans to allocate no less than 3 billion Hong Kong dollars for buybacks in the future, indicating strong confidence in its development [2]. - The company aims to maintain a stable high dividend payout rate, with a dividend rate of 63.4% for 2024 [2]. Future Outlook - The company has a well-integrated industrial chain with a total electrolytic aluminum capacity of 6.459 million tons and alumina capacity of 21 million tons, ensuring strong raw material supply [3]. - A decline in thermal coal prices is expected to enhance cost advantages and improve earnings elasticity [3]. - The shift of electrolytic aluminum capacity to Yunnan, supported by green energy, is anticipated to contribute to long-term growth [3]. - The company is also expanding into iron ore resources through its stake in the Guinea iron ore project, which may provide additional investment returns [3]. Investment Recommendations - The upward trend in aluminum prices and significant cost advantages are expected to enhance earnings elasticity, with projected net profits of 24.93 billion yuan, 25.89 billion yuan, and 27.24 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 8, 8, and 7 times [4].

国盛证券发布研报称，2025年上半年中国宏桥(01378)业绩表现亮眼实现，营收810.4亿元，同比增长 10.1%；归母净利123.6亿元，同比增长35%。公司业绩大幅增长主要受铝产品"量价齐升"及电价同比大 幅下降所带来的成本下降所致。考虑到当前时点下产能兑现及降本增效为竞争关键，公司有望通过海外 拓展与上下游深度赋能实现跨越式增长，国盛证券维持中国宏桥"买入"评级。 国盛证券指出，从"量"来看，25H1中国宏桥电解铝销量290.6万吨，同比增长2.4%；氧化铝销量636.8万 吨，同比增长15.6%；铝加工产品销量39.2万吨，同比增长3.5%。从"价"来看，2025年上半年公司电解 铝售价(不含税)为1.79万元/吨，同比增长2.7%；氧化铝售价(不含税)为3243元/吨，同比增长10.3%；铝 加工产品售价(不含税)2.06万元/吨，同比增长2.9%。成本方面，25H1山东自备电发电成本(含税)为0.33 元/度，同比减少31%，环比减少21%。 另外，中国宏桥对云南宏泰的持股比例提升至90.07%，云南宏泰拥有203万吨电解铝产能，中国宏桥将 受益股权比例的提升，电解铝权益产能增长45.7万吨。基 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price based on projected earnings growth and market conditions [6][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 81.04 billion RMB for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit of 13.55 billion RMB, up 35.4% year-on-year, aligning with previous forecasts [2]. - The increase in revenue and profit is attributed to rising prices in electrolytic aluminum and alumina, alongside a robust production capacity [3]. - The company has demonstrated confidence in its future by repurchasing shares worth 2.61 billion HKD and planning to maintain a high dividend payout ratio [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, electrolytic aluminum revenue reached 51.88 billion RMB, a 5.2% increase year-on-year, with sales volume at 2.906 million tons, up 2.4%. The average selling price rose to 17,853 RMB/ton, a 2.7% increase [3]. - Alumina revenue was 20.66 billion RMB, a 27.5% increase, with sales volume at 6.368 million tons, up 15.6%. The average selling price increased by 10.3% to 3,243 RMB/ton [3]. - The aluminum processing segment generated 8.07 billion RMB in revenue, a 6.5% increase, with sales volume at 392,000 tons, up 3.5% [3]. Share Buyback and Dividends - The company spent 2.61 billion HKD on share repurchases in H1 2025 and plans to allocate no less than 3 billion HKD for buybacks, reflecting strong confidence in its growth prospects [4]. Future Outlook - The company has a well-integrated supply chain with a total electrolytic aluminum capacity of 6.459 million tons and alumina capacity of 21 million tons, ensuring strong raw material security [5]. - The decline in thermal coal prices is expected to enhance profit margins, with coal prices dropping to approximately 652 RMB/ton [5]. - The shift of electrolytic aluminum production capacity to Yunnan, supported by green energy, is anticipated to benefit long-term growth [5]. - The company is also diversifying by investing in iron ore projects in Guinea, which may provide additional returns [5]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 24.93 billion RMB, 25.89 billion RMB, and 27.24 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8, 8, and 7 [6][7].

Summary of Zhongfu Industrial Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zhongfu Industrial - **Industry**: Aluminum production and processing Key Points Industry and Company Developments - Zhongfu Industrial increased its electrolytic aluminum equity capacity by approximately 120,000 tons through the acquisition of shares in Yulian Group, which is a highlight given the current capacity constraints in the industry [2][3] - The adjustment of the electricity settlement scheme in Sichuan Province and the decline in alumina prices have reduced production costs, effectively expanding profit margins in the electrolytic aluminum segment [2][4] Financial Performance and Projections - The company expects net profits of approximately 1.98 billion yuan, 2.46 billion yuan, and 2.75 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, benefiting from capacity enhancements, cost optimization, and improvements in processing operations [2][7][30] - The employee stock ownership plan totals no more than 1.25 billion yuan, with a future three-year dividend plan distributing no less than 60% of the annual distributable profits, enhancing development confidence [2][8] Risks and Challenges - Zhongfu Industrial faces risks including fluctuations in raw material prices (alumina, coal), adjustments in electricity pricing, international aluminum price volatility, and potential power restrictions during drought periods [2][9] - The company has experienced challenges due to environmental regulations leading to production limits in Henan, resulting in asset efficiency and value declines [11][12] Operational Insights - The company has a complete industrial chain including coal, electricity, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum processing, with equity capacities of approximately 600,000 tons of coal, 900,000 kW of thermal power, and 690,000 tons of aluminum processing capacity [2][10] - The aluminum processing segment, which has a capacity of 690,000 tons, is primarily focused on can body and can material production, with 66% of output exported [5][25] Market Dynamics - The electrolytic aluminum industry has seen a supply-side reform since 2017, with a current utilization rate of 98.22%, indicating limited upward capacity [16] - Global aluminum demand has shifted, with reduced demand from the construction sector and increased demand from transportation and electricity sectors [20] Pricing and Profitability - The company anticipates a conservative price outlook due to recent tariff policies, with expected average prices of 20,000 yuan/ton for aluminum in 2025, and 3,200 yuan/ton for alumina [29] - The profitability of the electrolytic aluminum segment is sensitive to price changes, with a 1,000 yuan increase in aluminum prices potentially adding about 500 million yuan to profits [32] Future Outlook - The company is positioned for growth with a focus on enhancing production capacity and optimizing costs, while also navigating the challenges posed by market volatility and regulatory environments [2][30][31]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company has successfully restructured and improved its profitability after facing significant losses and a risk of delisting in previous years. It has a solid market position and a well-established industrial chain in coal, electricity, aluminum, and aluminum processing [1][14]. - The company is focusing on green transformation and expanding its electrolytic aluminum production capacity, which is expected to enhance its profitability due to lower electricity costs in the Sichuan region starting in 2025 [2][3]. - The report highlights the importance of the green aluminum pricing mechanism and the company's potential to gain cost pricing power and market access in the European and American green supply chains [4]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Company Overview - The company was established in 1993 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2002. It has a comprehensive industrial chain with capacities of 2.25 million tons of coal, 750,000 tons of aluminum, and 690,000 tons of aluminum processing [1][14]. - After a significant restructuring in 2021, the company returned to profitability in 2021 and successfully lifted its delisting risk in 2022 [1][14]. Section 2: Electrolytic Aluminum and Green Transformation - In September 2023, the company acquired a 25% stake in Zhongfu Aluminum, increasing its electrolytic aluminum capacity to 630,000 tons, with plans to reach 750,000 tons by 2025 [2]. - The company anticipates a decrease in electricity costs for its electrolytic aluminum production in Sichuan starting in 2025, which will enhance its profitability [3]. Section 3: Green Transition and High-Quality Development - The report discusses the impact of carbon reduction policies and the evolving pricing logic for aluminum, emphasizing the importance of green transformation for future competitiveness [4]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the green aluminum market, with expectations of significant growth in profitability from 2025 to 2027 [4]. Section 4: Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.8 billion, 2.3 billion, and 2.7 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8.1, 6.3, and 5.5, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [4][5].

Group 1: Restructuring Progress - The audit and evaluation of the target company for the restructuring are currently underway, with updates to be announced in due course [1][2] - The restructuring aims to create a complete aluminum material industry chain, enhancing asset quality and risk resistance [1][2] - The restructuring is in line with national policies to promote the consolidation of quality assets in the aluminum industry [1] Group 2: Financial Performance and Projections - The target company, Kaiman Aluminum, reported a 2024 production capacity of 290 tons of gallium, with revenues of 30 billion and profits of 9.2 billion [2] - The company holds an 11% stake in China Rare Earth Metals Co., with no current plans for disposal [2][3] - The company's effective tax rate is projected to be 25%, with fluctuations in 2023 and 2024 due to investment income adjustments [4] Group 3: Shareholder and Market Concerns - As of May 20, 2025, the total number of shareholders is 103,092 [4] - The company acknowledges the impact of coal price declines on electricity costs, which may improve overall cost efficiency [4] - The company is committed to maintaining market value and shareholder interests through improved governance and investor relations [4]