21世纪经济报道 2025-12-15 19:14发布于广东21世纪经济报道官方账号 21世纪经济报道记者李莎 报道 11月房地产市场还在波动，但稳楼市政策成效仍在显现，部分大中城市成交相对活跃。 12月15日，国家统计局发布11月房地产数据，11月70个大中城市房价整体仍在调整，但部分指标有所改善，上海、沈阳、南京、合肥、 重庆、贵阳等8个城市新房价格上涨，上涨城市数量较上月有所增加。二手房市场继续呈现"以价换量"特征。 年底置业窗口来临，机构数据显示，11月新房供应阶段性增加，广州、西安、合肥、珠海等地成交环比有不同程度增长。整体来看，1— 11月新建商品房销售仍面临一定调整压力，但降幅较1—10月有所收窄。 资料图 随着商品房去库存工作持续推进，11月末，商品房待售面积75306万平方米，比10月末减少301万平方米，库存面积连续9个月下降。 中指研究院指数研究部总经理曹晶晶表示，12月是房企业绩冲刺节点，预计重点城市优质项目入市将有所增加，市场成交量有望保持一 定规模。 商品房库存九连降 11月房地产市场延续调整。 国家统计局数据显示，11月70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格环比总体下降。 在新房市场，1 ...

11月房地产市场延续调整。 国家统计局数据显示，11月70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格环比总体下降。 资料图 21世纪经济报道记者李莎 报道 11月房地产市场还在波动，但稳楼市政策成效仍在显现，部分大中城市成交相对活跃。 12月15日，国家统计局发布11月房地产数据，11月70个大中城市房价整体仍在调整，但部分指标有所改善，上海、沈阳、南京、合肥、重庆、 贵阳等8个城市新房价格上涨，上涨城市数量较上月有所增加。二手房市场继续呈现"以价换量"特征。 年底置业窗口来临，机构数据显示，11月新房供应阶段性增加，广州、西安、合肥、珠海等地成交环比有不同程度增长。整体来看，1—11月 新建商品房销售仍面临一定调整压力，但降幅较1—10月有所收窄。 随着商品房去库存工作持续推进，11月末，商品房待售面积75306万平方米，比10月末减少301万平方米，库存面积连续9个月下降。 中指研究院指数研究部总经理曹晶晶表示，12月是房企业绩冲刺节点，预计重点城市优质项目入市将有所增加，市场成交量有望保持一定规 模。 商品房库存九连降 在新房市场，11月一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.4%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。其中， ...

上海克而瑞信息技术有限公司(以下简称"克而瑞")发布的最新数据显示，重点30城一二手房成交总量在 今年前10个月保持在2.74亿平方米的水平，与去年同期基本持平，市场底部特征逐步显现。 从各城市表现看，克而瑞监测数据显示，今年前10个月，深圳一二手房成交面积上涨12%；北京、上海 和广州前10个月一二手房成交同比增幅分别为7%、6%和2%。 在年内多轮稳楼市政策作用下，重点30城楼市成交整体出现止跌企稳迹象。 不少二线城市也较具韧性。克而瑞数据显示，合肥前10个月一二手房累计成交面积同比增长18%，增幅 排在30城首位；成都前10个月一二手房成交面积为2630万平方米，同比增长11%。重庆、西安、武汉、 杭州等核心二线城市成交量也均突破1000万平方米，且均实现同比正增长，成为支撑二线城市市场止跌 回稳的主力。 中指研究院监测数据显示，今年1月份至10月份，重点30城新房以及二手房成交总套数累计同比增长 0.6%，其中新房成交同比下降7.2%，二手房成交同比增长5.4%。 "从核心数据看，住房需求规模总体保持稳定，说明居民仍有较强的购房意愿。今年多城二手房活跃度 提升，显示出稳楼市政策的成效以及市场较强的韧性 ...

Core Insights - The land market in Hangzhou, Changsha, and Guangzhou remains active, with core areas experiencing high competition and premium bidding, while peripheral regions show more rational transactions [1][2][3] - The recovery of confidence in the land market is attributed to ongoing "stabilizing the real estate market" policies and improved financing conditions, which have boosted developers' investment confidence [1][4] Group 1: Land Auction Results - In Hangzhou, two residential land parcels were auctioned, with the Binhai District parcel sold for 1.728 billion yuan, achieving a floor price of 25,108 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 19.33% [2] - Changsha auctioned three residential plots, with the most notable being the Kaifu District plot sold for 1.474 billion yuan at a floor price of 8,497 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 18% [2] - In Guangzhou, a residential land parcel in Panyu District was sold for 1.194 billion yuan, with a premium rate of 8.15% after 18 rounds of bidding [2][3] Group 2: Market Trends and Developer Sentiment - The land market shows a differentiated pattern, with core areas attracting multiple bids and certain premiums, indicating a rebound in investment confidence among brand developers [3][5] - Recent land market activity is not limited to the mentioned cities; other cities with strong industrial bases and improving land supply-demand structures are also witnessing increased participation from developers [3] Group 3: Policy Impact - The recovery in land market confidence is closely linked to the implementation of over 470 real estate-related policies across approximately 200 provinces and cities, with more than 120 policies introduced in the third quarter alone [4] - Specific measures include expanded housing provident fund withdrawal options, targeted purchase subsidies, and financial innovations aimed at stabilizing the market [4] - Notable policy changes include Guangzhou's complete removal of purchase, sale, and price restrictions, and Changsha's encouragement of "old-for-new" housing exchanges and enhanced support for housing provident funds [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy adjustments in various Chinese cities, including Wuhan's "Han Eight Measures," aim to stimulate the real estate market by enhancing housing loan limits, increasing subsidies for rigid housing demand, and optimizing home purchase residency procedures, indicating a proactive approach to stabilize the housing market [1][5][10]. Policy Adjustments - Wuhan's "Han Eight Measures" includes eight initiatives such as increasing housing provident fund loan limits and enhancing support for commercial properties [1][5]. - Guangzhou and Changchun have also optimized their housing provident fund policies, with Changchun reducing the minimum down payment for new homes from 20% to 15% and Guangzhou allowing provident fund withdrawals for down payments [1][5][6]. - Other cities like Jiangmen and Shaoyang have introduced measures to promote housing consumption, with Jiangmen launching a real estate promotion month [1][6]. Market Dynamics - The real estate market is currently in a traditional peak season for marketing, with various cities hosting housing exhibitions and promotional activities to attract buyers [7][11]. - The government's involvement in these events includes setting up consultation booths to explain housing subsidies and other policies [7]. Future Expectations - Analysts anticipate that more measures to stabilize the housing market will be introduced, as the current period is seen as a window for policy benefits [1][12]. - The Central Committee's recent meeting emphasized the need to adjust housing purchase restrictions, which could lead to further policy relaxations in major cities [10][12]. - The overall sentiment suggests that while significant policy changes may be limited, there is still room for structural adjustments to support the market [11][13].

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy adjustments in various Chinese cities, including Wuhan's "Han Eight Measures," aim to stimulate the real estate market by enhancing housing loan limits, increasing subsidies for rigid housing demand, and optimizing home purchase procedures, indicating a proactive approach to stabilize the housing market [1][4][9]. Group 1: Policy Measures - Wuhan's "Han Eight Measures" includes eight initiatives such as increasing housing provident fund loan limits and enhancing subsidies for home purchases [1][4]. - Other cities like Guangzhou and Changchun have also optimized their housing loan policies, with Changchun reducing the minimum down payment for new homes from 20% to 15% [4][5]. - The measures are part of a broader trend where cities like Hefei and Dongguan are also releasing favorable policies to boost the housing market [1][5]. Group 2: Market Context - The timing of these policy releases aligns with the traditional peak season for real estate marketing, known as "Golden September and Silver October," which is characterized by favorable weather for housing exhibitions [5][6]. - Historical patterns show that significant real estate policies are often announced before the National Day holiday, indicating a strategic approach to market stabilization [6][8]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Analysts expect that the current period remains a window for policy benefits, with more measures likely to be introduced to support the housing market [1][9]. - The Central Government's emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market suggests that further structural adjustments may occur, particularly in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen [9][10]. - The potential for additional policies aimed at enhancing housing supply and addressing specific housing categories, such as commercial properties, is anticipated [9][10].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform" [4] Core Insights - The building materials industry saw a significant improvement in net profit in H1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 23.9%, while revenue decreased by 5.9% to 270.9 billion yuan [12][9] - The cement and fiberglass sectors performed particularly well, with cement profits increasing by 1487% year-on-year in H1 2025 [38][41] - The report indicates that the traditional demand remains weak, but profit growth is driven by price and cost improvements in certain building materials, as well as increased demand for emerging materials [12][9] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - In H1 2025, the building materials industry achieved a total revenue of 270.9 billion yuan, down 5.9% year-on-year, while net profit reached 14.3 billion yuan, up 23.9% [12][9] - The second quarter saw a net profit growth of 30.2% compared to the first quarter, indicating a positive trend [12][9] 2. Subsector Performance - **Cement**: Revenue of 118.1 billion yuan in H1 2025, down 7.7% year-on-year, with net profit soaring by 1487% to 5.2 billion yuan [41][38] - **Consumer Building Materials**: Revenue of 66.9 billion yuan, down 3.8%, with net profit declining by 12.8% [41][38] - **Fiberglass**: Revenue increased by 20.8% to 10.4 billion yuan, with net profit rising by 127% [41][38] - **New Materials**: The electronic materials sector showed significant growth, benefiting from high demand in computing power [41][38] 3. Investment Recommendations - Key stocks recommended include Zhongcai Technology, Huaxin Cement, and China Jushi, among others, with various ratings from "Buy" to "Hold" based on their performance and market conditions [8][41]

Group 1 - Guangzhou has proposed to expand the scope of housing provident fund withdrawals, allowing funds to be used for down payments on existing commercial housing, allocated affordable housing, or shared ownership housing, in addition to newly sold commercial housing [1] - Changchun has adjusted its housing provident fund loan policy, with a minimum down payment of 15% for first-time users or second-time users without housing in the purchase area for new homes in main urban areas and development zones [1] - As of September 28, Henan Province has issued special bonds totaling 270.635 billion yuan, focusing on municipal and industrial park infrastructure, shantytown renovations, and other public service areas [1] Group 2 - According to Zhongtai Securities, in the current policy environment, financially stable real estate companies are the focus of investment, with a recommendation to pay attention to leading companies with strong financials and performance [3] - With the recovery of market demand, property management companies are expected to see performance and valuation recovery [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the launch of various real estate promotional activities in multiple Chinese cities during the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October," aimed at stimulating the housing market and providing financial relief to homebuyers [1][4][9]. Group 1: Promotional Activities - Hunan Province initiated the "Anju Furong · Chang Gou Hao Fang" campaign, involving 14 cities, to offer multiple home purchase incentives [1]. - Chongqing launched an online autumn real estate and home furnishing exhibition featuring over 100 projects from 23 brands [1]. - Liaoning Province started a "Real Estate and Home Furnishing Promotion Activity" with various companies participating and offering discounts [1][4]. Group 2: Duration and Format of Events - This year's "Autumn Fair" is characterized by a longer duration and a more diverse range of participating companies compared to previous years [3][4]. - The Hunan event will last until mid-November, while the fairs in Liaoning and Chongqing will continue until the end of October [4]. Group 3: Discounts and Incentives - Many real estate companies are offering special price discounts, full payment incentives, and other promotional measures during the fairs [4][5]. - Specific incentives include a maximum subsidy of 200,000 yuan for homebuyers in Yueyang, and a 15,000 yuan voucher for full payment buyers in Changchun [5]. Group 4: Policy Support - Recent policy measures have been introduced in various cities to stabilize the housing market, including adjustments to housing fund policies and the introduction of purchase subsidies [5][8]. - Major cities like Beijing and Shanghai have implemented significant policy changes to stimulate demand, such as relaxing purchase restrictions and optimizing loan policies [7][8]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Analysts expect a rebound in market activity during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, driven by the combination of promotional events and supportive policies [9]. - The overall sentiment in the market is optimistic, with expectations of increased project launches and sales in core cities [9].

Group 1 - The core theme of the news is the launch of various housing promotion activities across multiple cities in China, particularly during the traditional peak season for real estate sales known as "Golden September and Silver October" [1][2] - Hunan province initiated a campaign titled "Anju Furong · Chang Gou Hao Fang," which includes multiple housing purchase incentives aimed at reducing the financial burden on homebuyers [1][3] - The "Autumn Trade Fair" is characterized by a longer duration and a more diverse range of participating companies compared to previous years, indicating stronger support for the real estate market [1][4] Group 2 - New policies were introduced during the housing fairs, such as home purchase subsidies in Yueyang, with amounts reaching up to 200,000 yuan for eligible buyers [5] - Several cities, including Nanchang and Fuzhou, have optimized their housing fund policies to stimulate the market, reflecting a broader trend of policy adjustments aimed at stabilizing the real estate sector [7][8] - The expectation of further policy measures to stabilize the housing market is growing, with more cities likely to announce supportive actions during the peak sales season [9][10]