1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term pulp market may continue the low - level oscillation pattern. Spot prices are suppressed by high inventory and have limited room for rebound. Later, attention should be paid to port inventory, seasonal demand during the "Golden September and Silver October", terminal demand orders, and the capital trend in the market under the support of rising broadleaf prices. Although Suzano's price increase and marginal improvement in demand inject rebound momentum, high inventory and delivery risks still restrict the upside space. The valuation of the futures market is neutral and slightly low. The recommended strategies are to try long positions on far - month contracts on dips [88]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - Shandong Sun Paper plans to invest up to 1.53 billion yuan in a 700,000 - ton high - grade packaging paper project at its Yandian plant in Shandong, with a construction period of 18 months. It also announced a 600,000 - ton bleached chemical pulp project with a total investment of up to 3.51 billion yuan [5]. - As of August 28, 2025, the inventory of pulp in major Chinese ports showed a downward trend. The inventory in Changshu Port was 515,000 tons, down 15,000 tons (2.8% MoM); in Qingdao Port, it was 1.39 million tons, down 10,000 tons (0.7% MoM); in Gaolan Port, it was 52,000 tons, down 10,000 tons (16.1% MoM). The total inventory of major ports was 2.084 million tons, down 48,000 tons (2.3% MoM) [5]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On August 29, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 682 yuan/ton, down 1.45% MoM and up 251.55% YoY; the Silver Star - Russian Needle spread was 82 yuan/ton, up 95.24% MoM and 139.81% YoY [12]. - The 11 - 01 month spread was - 326 yuan/ton, down 27.34% MoM; the 01 - 05 month spread was - 20 yuan/ton, down 200% MoM [17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The prices of imported coniferous pulp in the spot market declined slightly. The prices of Silver Star, Cariboo, Northern Wood, Lion Brand, and Russian Needle all decreased compared to the previous period. The prices of imported broadleaf pulp showed a mixed trend, with some regions showing a slight increase due to cost pressure, while others were weak due to limited acceptance from downstream paper mills [29][34]. - The import profits of coniferous and broadleaf pulp decreased. The import profit of Silver Star was - 159 yuan/ton on August 29, 2025, down 92.32% MoM and 1082.86% YoY [27]. 3.3.2 Supply - The supply of domestic chemimechanical pulp increased this week. The weekly output of domestic chemimechanical pulp was 872,000 tons on August 28, 2025, up 3.81% MoM [44]. - In June 2025, the inventory in European ports increased YoY and MoM, and the global pulp outbound volume increased seasonally MoM but was lower YoY. In May, the W20 pulp inventory increased significantly [48][52]. - In June, the export volume of coniferous pulp from Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States to China increased MoM but was still at a low level YoY. In July, the export volume of Chilean coniferous pulp to China increased significantly. In June, the export volume of broadleaf pulp from Brazil and Indonesia to China decreased slightly MoM but was at a high level YoY. In July, the export volume of Brazilian broadleaf pulp to China remained at a high level YoY, while that of Uruguay decreased significantly MoM [55][57]. - In July 2025, the total import volume of Chinese pulp decreased. The import volume of coniferous pulp decreased by 4.64% MoM, and that of broadleaf pulp decreased by 5.84% MoM [61]. 3.3.3 Demand - The domestic offset paper market was in a supply - demand game, with light trading. The production of large - scale factories was basically stable, but the industry's profitability was poor, and there were situations of paper machine conversion and shutdown for maintenance. The downstream consumption was flat, and the purchasing was mainly for replenishment [64]. - The copperplate paper market was sluggish. Factories maintained stable production, but demand continued to decline due to various factors. The consumption of base paper by downstream users was slow, and the market was in a stalemate [67]. - The white cardboard market was stable. Both supply and demand increased, and large - scale manufacturers achieved a balance between production and sales. Some paper mills planned to raise prices in September [70]. - The living paper market was in a flat consolidation. The terminal demand did not improve significantly, and the industry's operating rate remained at a low level. The price of raw pulp had limited support for the price of living paper [73]. - In July, the retail sales in the pulp terminal demand areas weakened seasonally MoM. The retail sales of cultural office supplies and daily necessities increased significantly YoY, while the retail sales of books and magazines and the production of dairy products decreased YoY [76]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of August 29, 2025, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 247,400 tons, with 229,200 tons in warehouses and 18,200 tons in factories, down 1.79% and 0% MoM respectively, and down 48.45% and 38.46% YoY respectively [78]. - The total inventory of the five major ports (Qingdao, Changshu, Gaolan, Tianjin, and Rizhao) was 2.084 million tons on August 29, 2025, down 2.25% MoM and up 12.71% YoY [85].

Core Viewpoint - Sun Paper Industry plans to invest in two major projects in its Shandong base, including a 600,000-ton bleaching chemical pulp project and a 700,000-ton high-end packaging paper project, with total investments not exceeding RMB 3.51 billion and RMB 1.53 billion respectively [1][5] Investment Projects - The 600,000-ton bleaching chemical pulp project aims to enhance the production capacity of the Shandong base, reducing reliance on external purchases of bleaching wood pulp and improving cost control [3][6] - The 700,000-ton high-end packaging paper project aligns with the company's long-term development strategy and is expected to further enhance the efficiency of the three major bases [1][5] Strategic Development - Sun Paper Industry's "Four Three Three" strategy focuses on adjusting its business structure to achieve a profit distribution among three segments: paper making, biomass new materials, and fast-moving consumer goods, with revenue shares targeted at 40%, 30%, and 30% respectively [3][6] - The company has established a strategic layout with three major bases in Shandong, Guangxi, and Laos, which are crucial for achieving high-efficiency collaborative development [3][7] Market Positioning - The company aims to enhance its product competitiveness and market share in the northern market by optimizing and upgrading production facilities across its Shandong base [6][7] - Sun Paper Industry is recognized as one of the few listed companies in China that has achieved "forest-pulp-paper integration" and full-category coverage, which strengthens its ability to withstand industry cyclical fluctuations [7] Future Outlook - The company is set to launch significant new production capacities by 2025, including various projects that are expected to improve profitability as pulp and paper prices recover [6][7]

消息面 8月6日，上期所纸浆仓库期货仓单233178吨，环比上个交易日减少272吨；纸浆厂库期货仓单19240吨， 环比上个交易日持平。 截至周四，据钢联统计全国港口纸浆库存为210.5万吨，周环比去化3.8万吨。 近日，聊城市行政审批服务局公示了山东银河瑞雪纸业有限公司年产30万吨生物基新材料产业化应用项 目。公示材料显示，该公司拟淘汰现有10.2万吨麦草化学浆的一期、二期、三期连蒸洗选漂车间及配套 碱回收车间、白泥精制碳酸钙车，打算新建30万吨漂白化学浆。 机构观点 中财期货： 综合来看，上周阔叶现货弹性放大印证投机性正套建库，高价接受度有限下阔叶现货弹性依旧偏弱，本 周受盘面风险偏好走弱影响盘面下修，9-1月间反套、非标阔叶正套顺畅。当下月间结构略不合理， SP09或超跌，前期空单及正套头寸可逐步离场，关注盘面企稳信号出现。 国信期货： 当前仍处于传统消费淡季，下游纸厂业者采买原料积极性不足，部分采取压价策略，卖方亦带有挺价情 绪，交易延续动态博弈格局。下方成本端存在一定支撑，后期淡季逐渐转至旺季，关注需求企稳情况。 若下游企业盈利改善，可考虑逢低做多。短期操作建议暂时观望。 ...