成熟的商业模式+全链路整合能力背书，渠道、供应链、品牌三重壁垒构筑竞争优势。 1）渠道：公司采取轻资产加盟模式拓张门店，截至2025Q3，公司门店覆盖31 个省份，数量达到10761 家，门店数量规模领先同业。公司在"山河四省"有着较高的渗透率，70%以上门店分布在三线以上的高 线城市，线下门店网络的深度和广度仍可向新地区及下沉市场渗透；2）供应链：依托上游持续的产业 建设和产业投资，以及对冷链物流体系的持续优化，锅圈已布局7 家自有食品工厂，覆盖牛肉、滑类、 丸类、水产、火锅底料等核心品种，并实现了全国大部分门店的"次日达"物流网络，兼具工业化生产能 力和零售响应速度的双重优势；3）品牌：公司坚持场景化营销，绑定娱乐、社交、运动等新消费场景 建立品牌心智。线上以抖音为核心阵地，用"爆品套餐+达人种草+明星直播+全民共创"的组合拳引流消 费者到线下门店履约兑现，线下聚焦"情感共鸣价值"，通过会员日、社区节等多样化的活动，持续激活 会员，创造增量收入。截至2025 年11 月，公司会员数量突破6000 万。 机构：中泰证券 研究员：何长天/熊欣慰/赖思琪 深加工食材，为消费者提供餐食解决方案。锅圈2015 年在 ...

食品加工 | 锅圈：重构餐饮零售效率，场景扩展驱动新一轮增长 | | --- | 锅圈（02517.HK） 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2025 年 12 月 30 日 | 评级： | 买入（首次） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：何长天 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 6,100 | 6,470 | 7,847 | 9,028 | 10,269 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | -15% | 6% | 21% | 15% | 14% | | 执业证书编号：S0740522030001 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 240 | 231 | 451 | 550 | 652 | | Email：hect@zts.com.cn | | 增长率 yoy% | 4% | -4% | 96% | 22% | 19% | | | | 每股收益（元） | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.17 ...

Core Insights - The number of single-person households in South Korea is projected to reach 8.55 million by 2027, 9.71 million by 2037, and nearly 10 million by 2042, reflecting a significant societal shift [1] - As of last year, single-person households accounted for 36.1% of all households in South Korea, marking a notable increase from 27.2% in 2015 and 31.7% in 2020 [1][3] - The rise in single-person households is attributed to changing social structures, with a notable impact on consumption patterns and the emergence of new business models [1][4] Demographic Trends - The increase in single-person households is primarily driven by two demographic groups: young individuals under 29 years old (19.8%) and seniors aged 70 and above [3] - Young people are increasingly opting for shared living arrangements and services, such as car-sharing, due to economic factors and the high costs associated with car ownership [3][4] - The number of new car registrations among individuals in their 20s has significantly declined, dropping to 2.9066 million units in the first half of 2025, representing only 5.7% of total registrations [4] Economic Implications - The demand for small-sized products, single-person dining options, and mini kitchen appliances has surged, leading to the emergence of new business sectors catering to single-person households [4] - Despite the growth of single-person households, there are signs of a potential reversal, as marriage and birth rates have shown some recovery this year [4] Aging Population Challenges - The aging population in South Korea is contributing to the rise of single-person households among the elderly, with over 10 million individuals aged 65 and above, representing 20.1% of the total population [5] - By 2052, it is estimated that 51.6% of single-person households will consist of individuals aged 65 and older, increasing the demand for social services and healthcare [5] - A recent survey indicated that only 34.2% of elderly individuals living alone consider themselves healthy, with nearly one-third reporting feelings of loneliness [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese restaurant food chain franchise industry is undergoing profound changes, driven by macroeconomic recovery and increasing consumer spending power, leading to market expansion and digital transformation [1][4][9] Market Overview - The Chinese restaurant food market is projected to reach 12.6 trillion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.2% from 2020 to 2024, driven by both service and retail sectors [9] - The average annual growth rate of GDP is expected to be 6.9%, while the retail sales of consumer goods will grow at about 5.5% during the same period, indicating resilient domestic demand [4] Consumer Behavior - Urban and rural residents' per capita consumption expenditure is showing a recovery trend, with urban residents growing at 6.4% and rural residents at 8.9% annually from 2020 to 2024, reflecting the vitality of the lower-tier market [6] - The demand for food and beverages remains stable, providing a solid foundation for the restaurant food industry [6] Industry Trends - The chain rate in the restaurant service sector is expected to rise from 15% in 2020 to 24% by 2025, indicating significant growth potential compared to developed countries [12] - The rise of "at-home dining" is reshaping industry structures, with this market segment growing at a CAGR of 18.4% from 2020 to 2024, significantly outpacing overall food retail growth [10] Franchise Dynamics - The franchise market is dominated by the restaurant sector, which accounts for nearly 50% of the market, but most franchise businesses are still in early expansion stages, with nearly 80% of registered franchise companies having fewer than 10 stores [20][22] - The competitive environment is shifting towards refined operations, with franchisees focusing on quality site selection and cost structure rather than engaging in price wars [24] Investment Considerations - Franchisees are increasingly favoring the "at-home dining" segment due to its lower investment threshold and shorter return on investment period, with expected payback periods of 10 to 20 months [34][36] - The leading brand in the at-home dining segment, Guoquan Shihui, is recognized for its low investment requirements and mature, replicable business model, making it a preferred choice for franchisees [39] Digital Transformation - The industry is experiencing a critical need for digital transformation to support scale expansion and profitability, with brands leveraging data-driven site selection and standardized operational systems [44] Franchisee Profile - The franchisee landscape is evolving, with a growing number of professional franchisees who have prior successful experiences, leading to a more selective relationship between brands and franchisees [47][48]

Core Insights - The company reported a strong revenue growth for Q3 2025, with revenues estimated between 1.85 billion to 2.05 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.6% to 25.8% [1] - The total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 is projected to be between 5.09 billion to 5.29 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 18.5% to 23.2% [1] - Core operating profit for Q3 is expected to be between 65 million to 75 million RMB, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 44.4% to 66.7% [1] Revenue and Profitability - The core operating profit margin for the period is estimated to be around 3.5% to 3.7%, which is an improvement of 0.7 to 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, indicating better store operations [1] - The company aims to exceed its target of opening over 1,000 new stores in 2025, with 361 new stores added in Q3 alone, bringing the total to 10,761 stores by the end of September [1] Market Expansion and Product Diversification - The company is enhancing customer loyalty through an optimized membership system, expecting to surpass 60 million members in the second half of the year [1] - The product range has expanded significantly, with the revenue share from barbecue rising from less than 5% to 22% over four years, alongside the introduction of eight product categories to meet home dining needs [2] - The SKU count has increased from 66 in 2020 to 412 in 2024, with 95% being self-developed, showcasing a strong focus on supply chain control and cost optimization [2] Financial Confidence and Future Projections - The company has demonstrated confidence in its growth by executing three share buyback announcements since 2024, with each buyback not exceeding 100 million HKD [2] - The management plans to distribute dividends of 200 million and 190 million RMB for the full year of 2024 and the first half of 2025, respectively, while maintaining a healthy cash flow [2] - Revenue growth is projected at 22.7% and 20.3% for FY25E and FY26E, respectively, with net profit growth expected to be 85.6% and 26.3% for the same periods [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 5.17 [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a robust revenue growth of approximately RMB 1.85 billion to RMB 2.05 billion for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.6% to 25.8% [1]. - The total revenue for the first three quarters is estimated to be between RMB 5.09 billion and RMB 5.29 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 18.5% to 23.2% [1]. - Core operating profit for Q3 is projected to be between RMB 65 million and RMB 75 million, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 44.4% to 66.7% [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth and Store Expansion - The company added 361 new stores in Q3, bringing the total to 10,761 stores by the end of September, an increase of 611 stores compared to the end of 2024 [2]. - The company aims to exceed its target of opening over 1,000 new stores for the year, particularly during the peak hot pot sales season in Q4 [2]. Product Diversification - The company has successfully developed barbecue as a second growth category, increasing its revenue contribution from less than 5% to 22% in the first half of 2025 [3]. - The product range has expanded to cover eight categories, including beverages and single-serving meals, with a significant increase in SKU count from 66 in 2020 to 412 in 2024, with 95% being self-developed [3]. Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns - The company has consistently repurchased shares since 2024, with each repurchase not exceeding HKD 100 million, indicating management's confidence in the company's future [4]. - The company plans to distribute dividends of RMB 200 million and RMB 190 million for the full year of 2024 and the first half of 2025, respectively, while maintaining a healthy cash flow [4]. - Revenue is expected to grow by 22.7% and 20.3% for FY25E and FY26E, respectively, with net profit growth projected at 85.6% and 26.3% for the same periods [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [5]. Core Insights - The company, Guoquan, is a leading brand in the home dining food product sector in China, with over 10,150 stores as of 2024, and a revenue forecast of 6.47 billion yuan for the same year, with 84% of revenue coming from franchisees [1][4]. - The home dining market in China has grown significantly, with a CAGR of approximately 14.7% from 2018 to 2022, and the segment for food products has seen even faster growth at 25.5% [1][34]. - Guoquan's business model includes a deep integration of the supply chain and a focus on optimizing its commercial model, which is expected to enhance profitability [2][55]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Guoquan is positioned as a leading brand in home dining food products, offering a variety of ready-to-eat and ready-to-cook ingredients across eight categories [12][14]. - The company has established a nationwide franchise network, achieving a store count of 10,150 by the end of 2024 [1][26]. Industry Analysis - The home dining market in China has expanded from 32.48 trillion yuan in 2018 to 56.16 trillion yuan in 2022, with projections to reach 71.09 trillion yuan by 2027 [34]. - The competitive landscape is highly fragmented, with Guoquan holding a market share of approximately 3.0%, leading the industry [39]. Core Advantages - Guoquan employs a "single product, single factory" model, operating seven factories to cover various product categories, which enhances its supply chain efficiency [2][55]. - The company has established a robust network of over 300 suppliers, ensuring a comprehensive supply chain and optimizing production costs [55][56]. Future Outlook - The company aims to expand its store count to 20,000, primarily targeting lower-tier cities, with a projected revenue growth of 13.3% to 95.9 billion yuan by 2027 [2][3]. - Profitability is expected to improve, with net profit margins projected to rise as operational efficiencies are realized [3][27].

Core Insights - The article highlights the recognition of Guoquan Shihui as a leading brand in the home meal sector, awarded by iResearch Consulting for its significant market position among over ten thousand franchisees [1][6]. Industry Overview - The Chinese restaurant food chain industry is moving towards refined operations, with the chain service rate increasing from 15% in 2020 to 24% by 2025, indicating a shift towards more structured and efficient business models [3]. - The trend of retailing in the restaurant sector is accelerating, driven by growing consumer demand for home dining, leading to an expansion into delivery, prepared meals, and ready-to-eat products [3]. Market Dynamics - The home meal sector is becoming increasingly attractive to franchisees due to its rapid growth, strong certainty, and relatively low competition [4]. - The operational requirements for home meal products are lower, with a focus on frozen goods, high standardization, and flexible product combinations, making it easier for franchisees to enter the market [4]. Company Positioning - Guoquan Shihui stands out as a leading player in the home meal sector, offering a diverse product matrix that includes over 600 SKUs across various categories such as hot pot, barbecue, and ready-to-cook meals [5]. - The company has established a comprehensive supply chain with seven production bases and 19 regional distribution centers, ensuring efficient product delivery and coverage across various consumer scenarios [5]. - Guoquan Shihui's business model is validated by its presence in over 10,400 stores nationwide, with a significant number of franchisees benefiting from its brand recognition and operational support [6].

Core Viewpoint - The rise of the "i-person economy" reflects a shift in consumer behavior towards low-interaction, personalized experiences, driven by the increasing popularity of the MBTI personality test and the growing preference for solitude among consumers [4][6][37]. Group 1: One-Person Dining - The "one-person dining" model is gaining traction, with the market expected to exceed 18 trillion yuan by 2025, showing a compound annual growth rate of 15.3% [6][8]. - Restaurants designed for solo dining, such as "Ichiran Ramen" and "23 Seat Noodle House," cater to the need for independent spaces while minimizing social discomfort through private booths and call buttons [6][8]. - Unmanned restaurants are emerging as innovative alternatives, utilizing a "three-no" model (no ordering staff, no cooking chefs, no cashiers) to enhance efficiency and meet the demand for a quiet, autonomous dining experience [8][9]. Group 2: Unmanned Hotels - Unmanned hotels are transforming the hospitality industry by eliminating social interactions during check-in and stay, thus providing a truly "no-disturb" experience for introverted consumers [11][13]. - The global smart hotel market is projected to grow from approximately $5 billion in 2020 to $15 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of around 15% [13]. - These hotels leverage technology to enhance user experience, including soundproofing, high-quality entertainment systems, and personalized service options [11][13]. Group 3: Unmanned Supermarkets - Unmanned supermarkets address the social pressures faced by introverted consumers and the efficiency challenges encountered by busy professionals, minimizing unnecessary interactions and wait times [15][17]. - The operational model relies on digital technologies such as RFID and computer vision to streamline the shopping experience, allowing for 24-hour operation and improved supply chain management [17][18]. - Despite their potential, unmanned supermarkets face challenges in accurately identifying products and providing assistance to customers when needed [17][18]. Group 4: Unmanned Study Rooms - Unmanned study rooms are emerging to meet the growing demand for quiet, independent study spaces among students and professionals, offering flexible rental options [20][21]. - The market for study rooms is expanding rapidly, with over 85,300 related businesses currently operating in China [23]. - However, the industry faces challenges such as reliance on a single revenue stream and intense competition, which may impact profitability [23]. Group 5: Unmanned Pet Grooming Shops - Unmanned pet grooming shops cater to pet owners seeking convenience and cost-effectiveness, allowing for a stress-free grooming experience without social interactions [25][27]. - These shops utilize smart technology for precise service and pricing, ensuring that consumers only pay for the services they need [27]. - The growth of the pet economy and the integration of technology into pet services are expanding the market for unmanned grooming options [27]. Group 6: Self-Service Car Washes - Self-service car washes are becoming increasingly popular among car owners due to their affordability and convenience, allowing for a flexible and stress-free experience [28][30]. - The average cost for a self-service wash ranges from 10 to 20 yuan, significantly lower than traditional car wash services [28][30]. - The rise in vehicle ownership in China, with over 353 million cars by the end of 2024, presents a significant opportunity for the self-service car wash industry [30]. Group 7: Self-Service Clothing Stores - Self-service clothing stores are gaining popularity by offering a no-interaction shopping experience that appeals to younger consumers seeking value and a pleasant shopping environment [31][33]. - These stores fill a gap in the traditional retail experience by allowing customers to try on clothes without the pressure of sales staff, enhancing the overall shopping experience [33][36]. - However, challenges such as inventory management and maintaining store cleanliness need to be addressed for sustained success [35][36].

Core Viewpoint - The rise of the "i-person economy" reflects a shift in consumer behavior towards low-interaction, personalized experiences, driven by the increasing popularity of the MBTI personality test and the growing preference for solitude among certain consumer groups [1][28]. Group 1: One-Person Dining - The "one-person dining" model is gaining traction, with the market expected to exceed 1.8 trillion yuan by 2025, showing a compound annual growth rate of 15.3% [2]. - Restaurants designed for solo dining, such as "Ichiran Ramen" and "23 Seat Noodle House," cater to the needs of i-persons by providing private booths and minimizing social interactions [2][4]. - The emergence of unmanned restaurants, which eliminate the need for human interaction, aligns perfectly with the i-person's desire for efficiency and autonomy in dining experiences [4][5]. Group 2: Unmanned Hotels - Unmanned hotels are transforming the hospitality industry by removing traditional social interactions, thus providing a "no-disturb" accommodation experience for i-persons [5][6]. - The global smart hotel market is projected to grow from approximately $5 billion in 2020 to $15 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of around 15% [8]. Group 3: Unmanned Supermarkets - Unmanned supermarkets address the social pressures faced by i-persons and the efficiency concerns of busy consumers, offering a digital shopping experience that minimizes unnecessary interactions [9][11]. - The operational model relies on advanced technologies like RFID and computer vision, allowing for 24-hour service and optimized supply chain management [11][12]. Group 4: Unmanned Study Rooms - Unmanned study rooms are emerging to meet the growing demand for quiet, independent study spaces, particularly among students and working professionals [13][14]. - The market for study rooms is expanding rapidly, with over 85,300 related businesses currently operating in China [16]. Group 5: Unmanned Pet Grooming - Unmanned pet grooming services cater to pet owners' needs for convenience and cost-effectiveness while minimizing social interactions during the grooming process [17][19]. - The service utilizes smart technology for precise billing based on pet size and grooming duration, enhancing the overall customer experience [19]. Group 6: Self-Service Car Wash - Self-service car washes are becoming increasingly popular among i-person car owners due to their affordability and convenience, with prices typically ranging from 10 to 20 yuan per wash [20][21]. - The rise in car ownership in China, with over 353 million vehicles by the end of 2024, presents significant growth opportunities for this service model [21]. Group 7: Self-Service Clothing Stores - Self-service clothing stores are gaining traction by offering a no-interaction shopping experience that appeals to younger consumers seeking value and a pleasant shopping environment [22][24]. - These stores fill a gap in the traditional retail experience by allowing customers to try on clothes without the pressure of sales staff, thus enhancing customer satisfaction [24][27]. Conclusion - The "i-person economy" signifies a broader trend towards respecting individual boundaries in consumer experiences, emphasizing the importance of personalized, low-interaction services across various industries [28].