2月25日，首钢股份盘中上涨2.18%，截至09:49，报5.62元/股，成交3609.05万元，换手率0.09%，总市 值435.83亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出129.58万元，大单买入492.75万元，占比13.65%，卖出622.33万元，占 比17.24%。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，首钢股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第七大流 通股东，持股4631.40万股，相比上期减少729.93万股。南方中证500ETF（510500）位居第九大流通股 东，持股2262.55万股，相比上期减少52.87万股。国泰中证钢铁ETF（515210）位居第十大流通股东， 持股1552.95万股，为新进股东。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资料显示，北京首钢股份有限公司位于北京市石景山区群明湖南路6号院3号楼，成立日期1999年10月15 日，上市日期1999年12月16日 ...

[Table_Title] 如何展望节后的钢铁行情？ 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨钢铁 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当前钢铁板块是一个弹性大且可能超预期的板块。从高频数据上看，产业的预期无疑是比较低 的。今年冬储累库的力度为近年来最弱，五大钢材总库存的高度也处于近年低位，映射经过四 年多的下行期后，产业在心态上比较谨慎和悲观。但另一维度，低库存有助于缓解节后去库的 压力；价格底部或意味着价格的调整较为充分，成材从供需维度逐步达到弱平衡。由此，在基 本面和价格均充分筑底的状态下，若需求或供给侧受到催化，成材涨价的弹性或较为显著。当 前时点，成材价格上涨的概率或大于下跌的概率；且一旦涨价，涨价弹性值得期待。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 赵超 易轰 吕士诚 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490520080012 SAC：S0490525080005 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUY139 SFC：BUZ394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table ...

Group 1 - The company exports approximately 500,000 tons of products to the European Union each year, including hot-rolled, cold-rolled, automotive sheets, tinplate, and silicon steel among various types [2]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨钢铁 [Table_Title] 铁矿供需趋弱，如何展望铁矿石的价格？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年开始，铁矿基本面宽松的格局逐步显现。尽管国内铁水产量不降反增——钢联口径， 247 家样本钢企日均铁水产量 236.79 万吨，同比增 3.1%，意味着铁矿需求端的支撑强劲；然 而，铁矿企业供应量的增长，以及海外对铁矿需求的弱势，使得国内铁矿供给的增长比需求更 显著——结果是，当前铁矿石港口库存达到 1.71 亿吨，为有纪录以来的最高位，超过了 2016~2018 年供改和 2021 年国内粗钢产量平控期间，铁矿港口库存累积的幅度。然而，与铁 矿供需趋弱相矛盾的，是矿价的高居不下。如何展望铁矿石的价格？ 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 赵超 易轰 吕士诚 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490520080012 SAC：S0490525080005 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUY139 SFC：BUZ394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% re ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current trends in various sectors, including liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, indicating potential investment opportunities and market dynamics. Group 1: Liquidity and Financing Environment - SPDR Gold ETF holdings are at their highest level since June 2022 [4] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for January 2026 is 50.27, up 6.62% month-on-month [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -4.7 percentage points in December 2025, down 1.60 percentage points month-on-month [4] - Current London gold spot price is $4,880 per ounce [4] Group 2: Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - January high furnace capacity utilization is expected to be at the highest level for the same period in five years [5] - Weekly price changes include rebar down 0.61%, cement price index down 1.10%, rubber up 4.49%, coke up 3.65%, coking coal down 0.64%, and iron ore up 0.50% [5] - National high furnace capacity utilization, cement, and asphalt operating rates decreased by 0.04 percentage points, 0.02 percentage points, and 0.7 percentage points respectively [5] Group 3: Real Estate Completion Chain - Titanium dioxide and glass prices are at low levels, with titanium dioxide price unchanged and glass price up 1.38% [6] - Titanium dioxide gross profit is -1,834 yuan per ton, while flat glass operating rate is 73.89% [6] Group 4: Industrial Products Chain - January national PMI new orders index is at 49.20% [7] - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel unchanged, copper up 3.50%, and aluminum up 2.11%, with corresponding gross profit changes showing improvements [7] - National semi-steel tire operating rate is 74.84%, up 0.28 percentage points [7] Group 5: Subcategories - Orientation silicon steel prices have reached the lowest level since 2018 [8] - Graphite electrode price is 19,000 yuan per ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 1,921.48 yuan per ton, down 4.00% [8] - Electrolytic aluminum price is 24,640 yuan per ton, up 2.11%, with estimated profit of 7,389 yuan per ton (excluding tax), up 6.91% [8] - Electrolytic copper price is 104,640 yuan per ton, up 3.50% [8] - Tungsten concentrate price is 605,000 yuan per ton, up 11.42% from last week [8] Group 6: Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of hot-rolled to rebar is at the lowest level for the same period in five years [9] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 3.96 this week [10] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 50 yuan per ton [10] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 360 yuan per ton, up 30 yuan per ton [10] - The price difference between small rebar (mainly used in real estate) and large rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) is 200 yuan per ton, up 33.33% from last week [10] - The price difference between medium-thick plates and rebar is 50 yuan per ton [10] Group 7: Export Chain - January China PMI new export orders are at 47.80%, down 1.2 percentage points [11] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) composite index is 1,175.59 points this week, down 2.74% [11] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is 76.90%, up 1.00 percentage points [11] - Starting January 1, 2026, China will implement export licensing management for certain steel products, which is expected to further regulate steel exports [11] Group 8: Valuation Percentiles - This week, the CSI 300 index increased by 0.08%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being oil and petrochemicals, up 7.95% [12] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the PB of the two markets is 32.46% and 100.00% respectively [12] - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the two markets is currently 0.52, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82, reached in August 2017 [12]

Group 1 - Ansteel's product price policy for February 2026 remains stable with no changes in hot-rolled, pickled, cold-rolled, and automotive steel prices [1] - Ansteel's high-strength wire prices for grades 590MPa, 780MPa, 980MPa, and 1180MPa are also unchanged [1] Group 2 - Benxi Steel's product price policy for February 2026 shows stability in most products, with cold-rolled, galvanized, and rebar prices remaining flat [2] - An increase of 50 yuan/ton is noted for non-oriented silicon steel and wire rod prices [2] - The pricing for special steel remains unchanged [2] Group 3 - Ling Steel's product price policy for February 2026 indicates no changes in hot-rolled, rebar, and special steel prices [3] - An increase of 50 yuan/ton is applied to wire rod and non-oriented silicon steel prices [3] - The pricing for cold-rolled, pickled, and automotive steel remains stable [3] Group 4 - Ling Steel's pricing adjustments for February 2026 include a 50 yuan/ton increase for wire rod and non-oriented silicon steel, while other products remain unchanged [4] - The pricing for hot-rolled, rebar, and special steel is stable [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Shougang Co., Ltd. has experienced fluctuations in stock price and trading volume, with a recent decline of 2.18% and a total market capitalization of 38.31 billion yuan [1] - As of January 9, the stock price of Shougang Co., Ltd. was reported at 4.94 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 138 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.37% [1] - The company has seen a year-to-date stock price increase of 0.82%, with a 15.15% increase over the past 20 trading days and a 14.62% increase over the past 60 trading days [1] Group 2 - For the period from January to September 2025, Shougang Co., Ltd. achieved an operating income of 77.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.78%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 368.13% to 0.95 billion yuan [2] - The company has distributed a total of 8.22 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 0.405 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3] - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders of Shougang Co., Ltd. increased by 9.59% to 91,800, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 8.75% to 70,890 shares [2][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is Neutral, maintained [9] Core Insights - The report highlights that the expansion of low-cost capacities, such as Simandou and the four major mines, is expected to drive long-term declines in iron ore prices. A significant drop in prices is anticipated in March and April, with current iron ore inventories at historical highs, suggesting a potentially larger decline [2][6] - The steel industry is experiencing a reduction in supply pressure due to self-initiated production cuts, leading to a slight improvement in profitability despite weak demand in the construction steel sector. Total steel demand is supported by resilient plate demand, with a year-on-year decline of 3.57% and a month-on-month decline of 0.56% in apparent consumption [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side policies aimed at reducing low-end exports and eliminating outdated capacities, with a focus on environmental and energy efficiency evaluations expected to be completed by the end of 2025 [2][6] Summary by Sections Cost Analysis - The black industrial chain's profits are largely captured by iron ore, with total profits estimated at 4,127 billion for iron ore, 337 billion for coking coal, and 1,264 billion for steel, representing 72%, 6%, and 22% of total profits respectively. The majority of iron ore is imported, leading to a significant outflow of profits overseas [5] - The Simandou project is expected to begin production by the end of 2025, with anticipated sales of 30 million tons from the northern mine and 5 to 10 million tons from the southern mine in 2026, contributing to a projected 4.3% increase in global iron ore supply [5] Supply Analysis - The report indicates that the steel industry is focused on reducing excess capacity, with policies aimed at "grading management and eliminating the weak" expected to be implemented in 2026. Non-compliant enterprises may face significant production cuts, highlighting the importance of regulatory compliance [6] - The report notes that the overall steel inventory has decreased by 2.70% week-on-week, while year-on-year it has increased by 12.34%, indicating a gradual reduction in inventory levels [4]

Supply Side - The steel industry is expected to see an increase in valuation driven by supply-side production regulation and more proactive fiscal policies [1] - By 2025, ongoing regulatory policies will focus on innovative capacity governance, emphasizing quality and structure over mere capacity reduction, marking a shift towards more refined and long-term industry governance [1] - As of November 2025, the cumulative crude steel production in China is projected to be 890 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.04%, indicating an increase in industry self-discipline and a tightening supply trend expected to continue into 2026 [1] Demand Side - Steel exports are anticipated to play a crucial role in alleviating domestic supply-demand imbalances, with cumulative steel exports reaching approximately 110 million tons by October 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.29 million tons [2] - Although the demand for construction steel is still facing a downward trend, the rate of decline is narrowing, indicating that demand is nearing its bottom [2] - The demand for steel in manufacturing is expected to remain stable, driven by sectors such as automotive, home appliances, and new infrastructure projects like wind power and 5G, which are increasing consumption of various steel products [2] Cost Side - Global iron ore demand is expected to decline overall, with China's structural upgrades and capacity replacements leading to a gradual decrease in steel demand, while growth in other emerging markets is insufficient to offset this reduction [3] - In the first half of 2025, supply easing is expected to suppress coking coal prices, with price drivers primarily influenced by supply adjustments rather than strong demand growth [3] - The price of scrap steel is projected to remain stable with no significant fluctuations, indicating a low probability of drastic price changes in 2026 [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel products are expected to trade in a low - level consolidation range [4] Group 3: Summary Based on Content Macro - Policy - Premier Li Qiang of the State Council chaired a meeting of the leading group for the preparation of the Outline Draft of the 15th Five - Year Plan, emphasizing the planning of major projects and carriers to support future development and current economic stability [3] Export Situation in November 2025 - In November 2025, most categories of China's steel exports reversed from a decline to an increase on a month - on - month basis, with an obvious rotation in the export structure. Among plates, there was a differentiation: the month - on - month export of coated sheets, which had ranked first for many months, dropped by 13.7% to 1.753 million tons, while the month - on - month export of hot - rolled sheets reversed from a decline to an increase, rising to the first place in monthly export volume [3] Market Performance - The steel products fluctuated and consolidated yesterday with a small price range, and the market contradiction was not prominent. The fundamentals showed a situation of weak supply and demand. After the domestic meetings at the end of the year, macro - disturbances will significantly decrease in the future. Without a driving force, steel prices may continue to consolidate within the current range [3]