021-60635736 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 钢材日评 日期 2025 年 12 月 8 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | 表1：12月5日钢材期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2605 | 3175 | ...

Core Points - China has decided to impose anti-dumping duties on 30 countries, with the highest rate reaching 103.1%, aimed at protecting its domestic industries from harm, with a duration of five years [1][3] - The countries affected include the 27 EU nations, the UK, South Korea, and Indonesia, primarily due to dumping practices related to stainless steel products [3][4] - The highest anti-dumping duty is on South Korea at 103.1%, while the EU and UK face a rate of 43%, and Indonesia has the lowest at 20.2% [3][5] Summary by Sections Anti-Dumping Duties - China will start imposing anti-dumping duties on July 1, 2025, for a period of five years against 30 countries due to dumping of stainless steel products [3] - South Korea faces the highest duty at 103.1%, with POSCO being an exception at 23.1% due to its compliance efforts [3] - The EU and UK will incur a duty of 43%, while Indonesia's duty is set at 20.2% [3] Trade Protectionism - The article highlights the hypocrisy of Western nations, particularly the EU, which have initiated trade protectionism under the guise of protecting local industries without substantial evidence [4] - China has stated that affected countries can appeal the decision, indicating a willingness to reconsider if presented with sufficient justification [4] EU and US Relations - The EU is under pressure regarding its reliance on China for rare earth materials, and despite its demands, China has not fully acquiesced [7] - The EU has shown signs of compromise with the US regarding tariffs, indicating a willingness to accept a 10% general tariff in exchange for exemptions in key sectors [9] - The article suggests that the EU's dependence on the US market makes it difficult for them to confront the US directly [9] Impact on US Market - The article discusses the unintended consequences of Trump's tariff policies, which were intended to boost US manufacturing but have led to increased costs for American consumers [11] - The rising costs have prompted US buyers to seek ways to circumvent tariffs, highlighting the challenges of finding alternatives to Chinese manufacturing [11] - The overall sentiment is that engaging with China requires sincerity from both the EU and the US, as China's retaliatory measures are seen as a response to excessive pressure [11]

Group 1: Trade Policy Changes - The joint statement from the China-US Geneva economic and trade talks resulted in a reduction of tariffs on Chinese steel and steel products exported to the US, down to 65% and 63% respectively [1] - The slight easing of steel tariffs during the 90-day exemption period is expected to support the resilience of indirect steel exports from China [1] Group 2: Export and Import Data - In April, China exported 10.462 million tons of steel, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, while imports were 522,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20.7% [1] - From January to April, China's total steel exports reached 37.891 million tons, up 8.2% year-on-year, while imports totaled 2.072 million tons, down 13.9% [1] Group 3: Global Steel Market Conditions - As of May 8, the export prices for hot-rolled coils from India, Turkey, and the CIS regions were $595/ton, $550/ton, and $460/ton respectively, while China's price was $462/ton [2] - In March, global crude steel production reached 166.1 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with non-China regions producing 73.3 million tons, up 0.5% [2] Group 4: Manufacturing and Export Orders - The global manufacturing PMI for April was reported at 49.1%, indicating a decline, while China's manufacturing PMI for new export orders was at 44.7%, down 4.3 percentage points from the previous month [3] - The steel export order index for Chinese steel companies continued to contract, with a new export order index of 41.0 in April, down 0.1 percentage points [3] Group 5: Trade Tensions and Protectionism - Recent trade tensions include Brazil's anti-dumping ruling on galvanized and aluminum-zinc plates from China, India's temporary 12% tariff on certain steel imports, and Canada's anti-dumping investigation into carbon and alloy steel wire from multiple countries including China [4] - Despite a slight easing in the foreign trade environment, the trend of trade protectionism is expected to suppress future steel exports from China [4]