Core Points - Indonesia's diplomatic strategy between the US and China has faced significant challenges, leading to a trade agreement with the US that has sparked international trade tensions [1] - The US imposed punitive tariffs of up to 32% on Indonesian goods, which were later negotiated down to 19% after intense diplomatic discussions [3] - The trade agreement allows US goods to enter Indonesia tariff-free while Indonesian products face a 19% tariff in the US, creating an imbalanced trade environment [5] - Indonesia is required to import at least $19 billion worth of goods from the US annually, including $10 billion in energy products, which poses risks to its domestic market [6] - The Indonesian government plans to use US imports for re-export to mitigate losses, but this strategy carries significant risks, including potential impacts on local agriculture and market saturation [7] - The US government promotes the agreement as a means to access Southeast Asian markets, but this claim may overstate Indonesia's market capacity and is driven by strategic interests in nickel resources [9] - China's response includes maintaining anti-dumping duties on Indonesian steel products, signaling a strong stance against perceived discriminatory practices [12] - The trade agreement reflects a complex geopolitical struggle, with Indonesia caught between the US and China, raising concerns about its economic viability and future trade relations [12]

Core Viewpoint - China has shifted from a passive defensive strategy in international trade to an active offensive approach, responding decisively to unfair treatment and trade pressures from multiple countries [1][3][22]. Trade Measures - On July 1, China announced anti-dumping duties on stainless steel products imported from 30 countries, including the EU, Indonesia, and South Korea [4][5]. - The move is seen as a direct response to previous trade actions against China, such as the EU's imposition of a 13.2% anti-dumping duty on Chinese tinplate products [5][15]. Strategic Implications - The decision to impose tariffs on multiple countries simultaneously signals a significant change in China's role in international trade, indicating a transition to a more assertive stance [3][22]. - China is leveraging its strong industrial base in stainless steel production, which accounts for a substantial portion of the global market, to enhance domestic competitiveness [15][18]. Market Dynamics - The tariffs are designed to apply differentiated rates, particularly targeting South Korean companies, which may face punitive tariffs as high as 103.1%, while leaving some room for cooperation [18]. - Countries like Indonesia, which rely on their natural resources, are attempting to use their position to gain political leverage, but they may underestimate China's control over critical resources like nickel [10][19]. Global Reactions - The EU and UK are facing significant supply chain risks due to China's actions, prompting a reevaluation of their trade relationships with China [18]. - South Korean companies are experiencing stock declines and are considering relocating operations to mitigate risks associated with China's trade policies [18]. U.S.-China Relations - The U.S. has notably been excluded from the recent tariff list, indicating a potential shift in its approach towards China, as evidenced by recent actions to ease restrictions on exports to China [5][19][21]. - This strategic omission suggests that the U.S. may be seeking to improve relations with China, recognizing the importance of cooperation in the context of global supply chains [19][21].

Group 1 - The EU is facing significant challenges from the combined pressures of the US, China, and Russia, with France expressing concerns about being bullied by these powers [1][4] - The US has set a deadline of July 9 for tariff negotiations, with the Treasury Secretary threatening to impose tariffs on countries that do not reach an agreement, specifically mentioning the EU [1][4] - China has announced countermeasures against the EU, including anti-dumping duties on imported brandy and stainless steel billets, as well as restrictions on medical device imports [4][6] Group 2 - France's Finance Minister has criticized the situation, likening the global landscape to a game where the EU is being bullied by the US, Russia, and China, and has called for stronger tariff barriers [4][8] - The EU's actions against Chinese companies, such as imposing taxes on Chinese electric vehicles, have been cited as provocations that led to China's retaliatory measures [8][11] - The EU's reliance on the US for security, particularly in the context of the Ukraine conflict, has complicated its relationship with Russia and contributed to its current predicament [11][12]

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced the continuation of anti-dumping duties on imports of stainless steel billets from the EU, UK, South Korea, and Indonesia for a period of five years starting July 1 [1][3] - The anti-dumping tax imposed by China on EU companies is as high as 43.0%, reflecting the significant dumping margin from the EU [3] - The EU's steel industry is facing challenges due to rising energy costs and pressures for green transformation, leading to a sharp decline in domestic demand and a reliance on exports to China, the largest stainless steel consumer market [3][5] Group 2 - The recent anti-dumping measures are partly a response to the EU's stance towards China, particularly comments made by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the G7 summit, which were perceived as provocative [5][7] - Despite the tensions, China remains open to dialogue and values the relationship with the EU, indicating a willingness to discuss cooperation during the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations [7]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce of China announced the continuation of anti-dumping duties on imports of stainless steel billets and hot-rolled sheets/strips from the EU, UK, South Korea, and Indonesia, effective from July 2025 for a period of five years [1] - The ongoing trade dispute has highlighted China's proactive stance in the context of US-China trade tensions, with the US facing difficulties in imposing tariffs on Chinese products [3][4] - The rise of trade protectionism amid global economic downturn poses significant challenges for Chinese products in international markets, with China firmly opposing unreasonable trade protectionist measures [4][6] Group 2 - China has shown a willingness to cooperate in resolving trade disputes, contrasting with the EU's protectionist measures, such as the anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese electric vehicles [6][8] - The extension of anti-dumping duties signals China's commitment to fair trade practices and adherence to rules, emphasizing the importance of mutual respect in international trade relationships [8] - The evolving dynamics suggest that China is no longer in a passive position but is actively setting the agenda and rules in trade negotiations, urging the EU to reconsider its approach [8]

Core Points - China has decided to impose anti-dumping duties on 30 countries, with the highest rate reaching 103.1%, aimed at protecting its domestic industries from harm, with a duration of five years [1][3] - The countries affected include the 27 EU nations, the UK, South Korea, and Indonesia, primarily due to dumping practices related to stainless steel products [3][4] - The highest anti-dumping duty is on South Korea at 103.1%, while the EU and UK face a rate of 43%, and Indonesia has the lowest at 20.2% [3][5] Summary by Sections Anti-Dumping Duties - China will start imposing anti-dumping duties on July 1, 2025, for a period of five years against 30 countries due to dumping of stainless steel products [3] - South Korea faces the highest duty at 103.1%, with POSCO being an exception at 23.1% due to its compliance efforts [3] - The EU and UK will incur a duty of 43%, while Indonesia's duty is set at 20.2% [3] Trade Protectionism - The article highlights the hypocrisy of Western nations, particularly the EU, which have initiated trade protectionism under the guise of protecting local industries without substantial evidence [4] - China has stated that affected countries can appeal the decision, indicating a willingness to reconsider if presented with sufficient justification [4] EU and US Relations - The EU is under pressure regarding its reliance on China for rare earth materials, and despite its demands, China has not fully acquiesced [7] - The EU has shown signs of compromise with the US regarding tariffs, indicating a willingness to accept a 10% general tariff in exchange for exemptions in key sectors [9] - The article suggests that the EU's dependence on the US market makes it difficult for them to confront the US directly [9] Impact on US Market - The article discusses the unintended consequences of Trump's tariff policies, which were intended to boost US manufacturing but have led to increased costs for American consumers [11] - The rising costs have prompted US buyers to seek ways to circumvent tariffs, highlighting the challenges of finding alternatives to Chinese manufacturing [11] - The overall sentiment is that engaging with China requires sincerity from both the EU and the US, as China's retaliatory measures are seen as a response to excessive pressure [11]

Group 1 - The South Korean government announced a 21.62% anti-dumping tax on Chinese stainless steel plates for five years, escalating trade tensions despite previous commitments to ease relations with China [1][3] - In response, China extended anti-dumping duties on stainless steel billets and hot-rolled coils from South Korea, the EU, the UK, and Indonesia, with rates as high as 103.1% [3][4] - The steel industry is crucial for China's manufacturing sector, and the anti-dumping measures reflect a strategic response to protect domestic industries from external low-price dumping [4][14] Group 2 - South Korea's actions are part of a broader strategy that includes investigations into various steel and chemical products, indicating a comprehensive approach to trade protection [3][4] - The anti-dumping measures from China are based on a systematic logic, with a history of investigations dating back to 2019, and are designed to prevent Korean companies from benefiting from the expiration of previous tariffs [4][14] - The trade conflict is influenced by U.S. pressure, as South Korea faces potential automotive tariffs from the U.S. if it does not impose higher tariffs on Chinese steel products [6][7] Group 3 - The South Korean steel and chemical industries are under significant pressure, with capacity utilization rates projected to drop from 82% in 2023 to 68% by 2025, leading to potential closures of over 30 small and medium-sized steel firms [7][11] - China's anti-dumping measures include exemptions for certain companies, such as POSCO, if they maintain export prices above a specified threshold, indicating a more nuanced approach compared to South Korea's blanket measures [4][5] - The ongoing trade tensions highlight the delicate balance South Korea must maintain in its foreign relations, particularly in the context of its economic dependencies on both the U.S. and China [14][15]

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced tariffs on 30 products from various countries as a countermeasure against trade protectionism, marking the beginning of an international economic and trade confrontation [1][3] - India has imposed a temporary safeguard tariff of 12% on Chinese steel after progress in US-India trade negotiations, indicating a strategy to gain favor with the US [1][3] - The EU is collaborating with the US to address China's "overcapacity" issues, with some EU leaders expressing willingness to align with US policies in exchange for tariff reductions [1][3] Group 2 - China has implemented anti-dumping duties on products from the EU, UK, South Korea, and Indonesia for five years, effective July 1, following previous anti-dumping measures taken by these countries against Chinese goods [3][5] - The EU has expressed concerns over China's control of rare earth exports, with officials demanding the restoration of open trade, but China has tightened regulations in this sector [5][7] - The current international landscape is characterized by rising trade protectionism, with China firmly defending its interests and willing to engage in equal negotiations with countries that show sincerity [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The economic situation in China shows mixed signals. In May, investment data weakened, especially in the real - estate sector, and exports were under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. With the approach of the Politburo meeting in July, there is a possibility of further strengthening of growth - stabilizing policies. In the US, economic data such as retail sales, manufacturing PMI, and ADP employment are weak, increasing the possibility of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The progress of international trade negotiations among various countries is complex, and the "Big Beautiful" bill's passage in the US House of Representatives needs attention. Macro - inflation trading is heating up, and sectors such as non - ferrous metals, gold, and black metals are worthy of attention [1][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, in May, investment data weakened, especially in the real - estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were also under pressure. Only consumption showed resilience. The third - batch of consumer goods replacement funds will be released in July, and the 800 billion yuan "Two - Major" construction project list for this year has been fully issued. In June, China's official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all increased slightly, but the manufacturing PMI has been below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months. The central bank's net investment in the open market on June 26 reached 305.8 billion yuan, and attention should be paid to the possibility of further strengthening of growth - stabilizing policies in the July Politburo meeting [1]. International Trade Situation - The deadline for the US to suspend tariffs is approaching. Trump threatened to impose high tariffs on multiple countries. The EU is willing to accept the US "benchmark national tax" but seeks industry tax exemptions and quotas. The EU trade negotiation representative will go to the US for talks. The UK - US trade agreement has come into effect, and Canada has cancelled the digital service tax. The India - US trade negotiation is deadlocked. The eurozone's June manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5, and the harmonized CPI increased to 2% [2]. US Economic Data and Policy - The US Senate passed the tax - reform "Big Beautiful" bill, and the House of Representatives will vote on it. In May, US retail sales decreased by 0.9% month - on - month. The June ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, and the ADP employment decreased by 33,000. After the data was released, traders increased their bets on the Fed's at least two interest - rate cuts by the end of 2025. The Fed plans to relax key bank capital regulations, and stable - coin legislation may be introduced in mid - July [3]. Macro - inflation Trading - From the 2018 tariff review, tariff - adding events first lead to a decline in trading demand and then an increase in inflation trading. Recently, with the increasing expectation of the US "Big Beautiful" bill's passage and the approaching of important domestic meetings, macro - inflation trading has heated up again. Non - ferrous metal sectors with supply constraints and gold are key areas of concern, and the black metal sector should focus on domestic policy expectations. In the energy sector, the EU will extend sanctions against Russia, and attention should be paid to the OPEC meeting on July 6 [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and gold at low prices [5]. Important News - The National Development and Reform Commission has arranged over 300 billion yuan for the third - batch of "Two - Major" construction projects in 2025. Trump threatened to impose high tariffs on Japan. Powell said that without Trump's tariff plan, the Fed would adopt a more accommodative monetary policy. The US House of Representatives will vote on the Trump tax - legislation draft on July 2. US economic data such as manufacturing PMI and ADP employment are weak. Iran has suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Israel has agreed to the conditions for a 60 - day cease - fire in Gaza. US API crude oil inventory increased by 680,000 barrels last week [7].

Group 1 - The European Union (EU) is expressing significant concerns over the decline in rare earth exports from China, which is impacting European companies severely [1] - The EU plans to address the rare earth supply issue in an upcoming meeting with Chinese leaders, emphasizing the urgency of the situation [1] - European automotive manufacturers are facing production risks due to limited inventory of rare earth magnets, which can only sustain production for 2 to 4 weeks [1] Group 2 - In response to EU pressure, China has implemented measures to protect its rare earth industry, including requiring companies to report core expert lists and enhancing traceability systems for rare earth magnets [3] - China has also announced the continuation of anti-dumping duties on imports of stainless steel products from the EU, UK, South Korea, and Indonesia for five years, citing potential harm to its domestic industry [3][5] - The Chinese stainless steel industry has seen a double-digit profit growth this year, contrasting with the EU's struggles to diversify its market [5] Group 3 - The continuation of anti-dumping duties is seen as a move to ensure fair trade and to remind the EU of the importance of mutual respect in trade relations [7] - The relationship between China and the EU is characterized by deep interdependence, and unilateral pressure tactics may not yield the desired outcomes for the EU [5][7] - Establishing a cooperative relationship based on mutual respect and equality is deemed essential for resolving trade issues effectively [7]