1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of both Jiao coal 2509 and Coke 2509 are mainly "oscillation", with a reference view of "range oscillation". Jiao coal and coke are expected to have a long - term upward trend in price after a short - term correction [1][5][8] 3. Summary by Variety Jiao Coal (JM) - **Views**: Intraday and medium - term views are "oscillation with an upward bias", and the reference view is "range oscillation" [5] - **Core Logic**: As of the week ending August 1st, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 77.7 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and 0.6 million tons higher than last year. After mines completed their production targets at the end of the month, production decreased and will gradually recover in August. From July 21st - 26th, the average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port was 1000.5 vehicles, and on July 30th, the single - day customs clearance reached 1461 vehicles, a new high for the year. The daily average coke output this week was 111.78 million tons, basically unchanged from the previous week. The previous driving forces for the coal price increase have been realized, and the market's optimistic sentiment has cooled. After the correction, the coal price is expected to gradually rise in the long - term [5] Coke (J) - **Views**: Intraday and medium - term views are "oscillation with an upward bias", and the reference view is "range oscillation" [8] - **Core Logic**: This week, coke supply stabilized while demand decreased slightly, and the fundamentals still face some pressure. The profitability of downstream steel mills improved, and the decline in hot metal production was moderate. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. After the Politburo meeting on July 30th, the market's optimistic sentiment had a phased correction. Coke is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short - term, and future market attention will gradually return to the actual supply of Jiao coal [8]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3608.88, up 0.09%, Shenzhen Component Index at 11203.78, up 0.10%, and ChiNext Index at 2348.99, up 0.15% [1] - Hong Kong stocks opened lower, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.64% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.29% [2][3] Bond Market - The bond market showed a recovery, with the 10-year treasury futures up 0.03% and the 5-year and 2-year treasury futures also up 0.03% [4] Commodity Market - Domestic commodity futures mostly rose, with lithium carbonate increasing nearly 7%, glass up over 7%, and焦煤 (coking coal) up 6% [5][17] - Iron ore and shipping indices fell over 1% [5] Sector Performance - CRO (Contract Research Organization) stocks were active, with 博腾股份 (Boteng Co.) rising nearly 10% and 康龙化成 (Kanglong Chemical) up 8.94% [7][8] - Bank stocks saw initial gains, with 宁波银行 (Ningbo Bank) up over 5% [9][10] - 雅江水电站 (Yajiang Hydropower Station) concept stocks faced adjustments, with 深水规院 (Deepwater Institute) down over 10% [13] Key Stock Movements - Notable gainers included 康龙化成 (Kanglong Chemical) at 30.45, up 8.94%, and 博腾股份 (Boteng Co.) at 23.88, up 8.55% [8] - Major declines were seen in 雅江水电站 concept stocks, with 深水规院 (Deepwater Institute) at 30.53, down 8.54% [13]

Market Overview - The market shows a clear bullish sentiment with 46 contracts rising and 31 contracts falling today, indicating increased trading activity in upward-moving varieties [2] - The main contracts with significant price increases include焦煤2509 (+7.97%), 碳酸锂2509 (+7.21%), and 玻璃2509 (+6.87%), driven by supply and demand factors [4] Fund Flow - The most significant inflows were seen in 碳酸锂2509 (1.674 billion), 中证1000 2509 (846 million), and 沪深300 2509 (803 million), indicating strong interest from major funds [6] - Conversely, the largest outflows were from 沪金2510 (-2.829 billion), 纯碱2509 (-2.52 billion), and 沪银2510 (-954 million), suggesting a withdrawal of funds from these contracts [6] Position Changes - Notable increases in open interest were observed in 碳酸锂2509 (+20.62%), 焦煤2509 (+13.02%), and 沪铅2509 (+12.40%), indicating new funds entering the market and high trading enthusiasm [8] - Significant decreases in open interest were noted in 棉纱2509 (-12.76%), 纯碱2509 (-10.66%), and 豆粕2509 (-9.27%), suggesting a withdrawal of major funds and warranting attention for future performance [8] Industry Insights - Recommendations for the multi-crystalline silicon and photovoltaic industry emphasize the need for careful planning to avoid blind investment cycles, with a focus on international collaboration and long-term strategic goals [9] - The domestic pure soda inventory decreased by 2.15% to 1.8646 million tons, indicating a slight reduction in stock levels, although overall inventory remains historically high [10][11] - The production of rebar steel increased by 1.39% to 2.1196 million tons, with a notable increase in demand from steel mills, suggesting a resilient market despite potential short-term corrections [12][15] Commodity Specific Analysis - The焦煤 market is experiencing upward pressure due to supply constraints and strong demand from steel mills, with prices reaching a five-month high [18] - The碳酸锂 market is influenced by supply uncertainties and strong speculative interest, with prices hitting a new high, although long-term supply from South American projects may limit further increases [19][20] - The玻璃 market is buoyed by positive macroeconomic sentiment and inventory reductions, with prices reaching a five-month high, although future performance will depend on policy developments and demand from the real estate sector [21]

Group 1 - The market shows a strong bullish sentiment with 61 contracts rising and 16 contracts falling today, indicating increased trading activity in upward-moving varieties [2][6] - The top gainers include polysilicon (+5.50%), glass (+5.25%), and coking coal (+4.24%), significantly influenced by supply and demand dynamics [6] - The largest inflows of capital were seen in the CSI 1000 (+2.34 billion), CSI 300 (+2.232 billion), and SSE 50 (+1.44 billion), while the largest outflows were in copper (-0.978 billion), soda ash (-0.616 billion), and glass (-0.374 billion) [8] Group 2 - The inventory of float glass has decreased to a two-and-a-half-month low, with a reduction of 1.983 million heavy boxes, indicating a tightening supply [11] - Malaysia's palm oil inventory reached an 18-month high, with June exports falling by 10.52% and production down by 4.48%, suggesting a bearish outlook for palm oil [12] - As of July 10, rebar production and inventory have shifted from increases to decreases, with production down by 2% and social inventory down by 1.44% [13] Group 3 - The U.S. plans to impose a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1, 2025, which may impact the copper market significantly [14] - Domestic soda ash inventory has reached historical highs, with a week-on-week increase of 2.98%, indicating potential oversupply issues [15] - Brazil's soybean production for the 2024/2025 season is projected to reach 169.6058 million tons, a 14.8% increase year-on-year, reflecting strong agricultural output [16] Group 4 - The glass main contract rose by 5.25% due to expectations of reduced production, which is likely to support prices [20] - The polysilicon main contract increased by 5.50%, but the market is still in a destocking phase, which may limit further price increases [21] - The caustic soda main contract rose by 3.64%, supported by improved macroeconomic sentiment and stable demand [23]