文：向善财经 近日，珍酒李渡发布业绩预警。 报告显示，2025上半年，该集团营收为24亿至25.5亿元人民币，相比去年，下滑38.3%至41.9%，净利润降23%至24%，非国际标准净利润预计下降39%至 40%。 预警发布的同时，疯狂的市场先生似乎又展现出了自己非理性的一面，在发布大跌的业绩预警之后，珍酒李渡的股价反而大幅上涨。 客观来看，不光是业绩影响，股价的变动包含的因素很多，珍酒李渡上涨，可能主因还在于市场对未来的期待。 投资者的这份期待，可能就要归功于珍酒李渡创始人吴向东了。 近两个月，吴向东一直朝着"网红"的方向努力，在微信视频号上非常活跃，网感十足。 视频内容也是语不惊人死不休，创造了"我要为我们白酒行业代言"、"为吹牛干杯"、"酒是男人的labubu"等等一系列金句，十分吸睛，不少视频点赞过万， 斩获了不少流量，大有白酒界雷军的既视感。 借助短视频，借助自身的IP，把各方的利益绑定在了一起，让不少投资者、经销商对未来充满了信心。 不过，短视频营销毕竟是流量思维，对白酒企业来说，福祸未知。 //增长的本质不是流量问题，而是战略问题 和其他创始人一样，走到前台要流量自然是为了变现。 和各种金句穿插 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhenjiu Lid, is facing significant challenges in the first half of 2025, with expected revenue declines and a strategic focus on product innovation and market adaptation to stabilize its performance [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company anticipates revenue between 2.4 to 2.55 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 38.3% to 41.9% [1] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decrease by 23% to 24%, while the adjusted net profit (Non-IFRS) is expected to decline by 39% to 40% [1] - The adjusted net profit decline aligns closely with the revenue decline, indicating stable profit margins despite the downturn [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The overall white liquor industry is experiencing weak recovery momentum due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, with a decline in consumption during key festive periods [1] - The company is actively adjusting its strategies to cope with industry pressures, including launching new products and enhancing its pricing control [1] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company launched a strategic new product, "Zhenjiu Dazhen," in June, which aims to strengthen brand recognition and improve market penetration through quality upgrades [2] - A new channel innovation strategy has been implemented, focusing on a low deposit entry and limited supply model to rebuild distributor confidence [2] - The chairman indicated that a significant portion of the budget will be allocated to the "Dazhen" product, suggesting a strong commitment to this strategic initiative [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 5.666 billion yuan and 6.074 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a projected year-on-year decline of 19.82% in 2025 followed by a growth of 7.21% in 2026 [2] - The adjusted net profit (Non-IFRS) is expected to be 1.312 billion yuan in 2025 and 1.443 billion yuan in 2026, with a decline of 21.73% in 2025 and a growth of 9.95% in 2026 [2] - The company is recommended for investment due to its clear brand positioning and strategic focus on optimizing the competitive landscape of premium liquor brands [2]