Core Insights - The recent data from the People's Bank of China indicates a significant decrease in both household and corporate deposits, while non-bank deposits have increased, suggesting a shift in asset allocation rather than a true "migration" of deposits [1][3][8] Group 1: Deposit Trends - In October, household deposits decreased by 1.34 trillion yuan, and corporate deposits fell by 1.09 trillion yuan, while non-bank deposits rose by 1.85 trillion yuan [1] - The term "deposit migration" is deemed inaccurate as it reflects a reallocation of deposits among different entities rather than a net outflow [1][3] - The increase in non-bank deposits is attributed to the expansion of wealth management products and sustained trading activity in the stock market [3][8] Group 2: Wealth Management Products - "Fixed income plus" (固收+) products have gained popularity, with some achieving annualized returns of up to 7% [2][6] - The total market size for "fixed income plus" wealth management products is expected to grow by over 1.4 trillion yuan this year, contributing to an overall market size of 33.5 trillion yuan by 2025 [6] - The shift towards "fixed income plus" reflects a broader trend of investors seeking higher yields as traditional deposit rates decline [6][9] Group 3: Investor Behavior - There is a notable increase in the number of individual and institutional investors in wealth management products, with personal investors rising by 10.29 million in the first half of the year [4] - The risk appetite among investors has shown signs of recovery, reversing a four-year trend of declining risk tolerance [4][10] - Wealth management firms are adapting by diversifying their product offerings and enhancing risk management strategies to meet changing investor expectations [9][10] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The overall market for wealth management products reached 32.13 trillion yuan by the end of Q3, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.42% [8] - The transition towards "fixed income plus" is seen as a critical strategy for wealth management firms, although progress has been slow due to investor hesitance towards net asset value fluctuations [8][9] - Firms are increasingly incorporating equity assets into their "fixed income plus" products to enhance returns and attract a broader investor base [7][9]

（上接1版） 关于市场讨论较多的"存款搬家"这一说法，业内专家表示，今年以来，在资本市场回暖背景下，有市场 机构将存款增长放缓视为存款"搬家"到股市。但从宏观层面看，存款搬家的说法不够准确。因为居民、 企业和非银机构用存款买卖股票，只是存款和股票在不同主体之间的重新分配。买股票的人存款减少、 股票增多，卖股票的人股票减少、存款增多，整体看存款是大体不变的。当然从大类资产市值的角度 看，股市上涨，会带来股票总市值上升，相对于存款的比重会有提高。 "对个体而言，投资者为了追求收益最大化，会根据不同资产的收益率，把储蓄存款转换成其他资 产。"业内专家称，比如，当存款利率趋于下降时，会更愿意买理财资管产品，但从理财资管的最终投 向看，大部分也还是购买同业存单、存放在银行或购买债券，最终还是会体现为银行的同业存款或是经 营主体的存款。近期居民存款增长放缓、非银存款增多，主要还是与前期规范同业活期存款利率有关， 非银主体存款趋于定期化，也更愿意持有同业存单。 报告认为，几组重要的利率比价关系需要关注：一是央行政策利率和市场利率的关系，商业银行资产端 和负债端利率的关系，不同类型资产收益率的关系，不同期限利率的关系，不同风 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in deposit growth and asset allocation in the context of a recovering capital market, suggesting that the notion of "deposit migration" to the stock market may not be entirely accurate, as it reflects a redistribution of deposits among different entities rather than a net decrease in deposits [3][4]. Group 1: Deposit Trends - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reported that the slowdown in deposit growth is linked to the adjustment of asset allocation, influenced by interest rate dynamics [3][4]. - Experts indicate that the term "deposit migration" is misleading, as it represents a reallocation of deposits among individuals, enterprises, and non-bank institutions rather than an overall decline in deposits [3][4]. Group 2: Interest Rate Dynamics - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a reasonable interest rate relationship across various asset classes, which guides macroeconomic equilibrium and resource allocation [4]. - The market-oriented interest rate system facilitates the flow of funds towards higher return opportunities, thereby influencing investment activities across banking, bond, stock, and insurance markets [4]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - Investors are motivated to maximize returns by converting savings into other assets, particularly when deposit rates decline, leading to increased interest in wealth management products [5]. - Recent trends show a decrease in household deposits and an increase in non-bank deposits, primarily due to regulatory changes affecting interbank demand deposit rates, with non-bank entities favoring time deposits and interbank certificates [5].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the implementation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy to maintain relatively loose social financing conditions and improve the monetary policy framework [1][2][3] Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The report advocates for a balanced approach between short-term and long-term goals, as well as between supporting economic growth and managing risks [2][3] - It highlights the importance of using various monetary policy tools to ensure ample liquidity and stabilize credit support from banks [2][3][7] - The central bank aims to align financial growth with economic growth and price level expectations, focusing on the social financing scale [3][7] Group 2: Interest Rate Management - Maintaining a reasonable interest rate relationship is crucial for macroeconomic balance and resource allocation [4][5] - The report discusses the significance of the relationship between central bank policy rates and market rates, as well as between different types of asset yields [5][6] Group 3: Financial Sector Support - The report emphasizes the need to leverage monetary and credit policies to support key national strategies and address weak areas in economic development [7][8] - As of September, the balance of structural monetary policy tools supporting these initiatives was 3.9 trillion yuan, with loan growth in related sectors exceeding 10% [7] Group 4: Macro-Prudential Policy Tools - The report calls for a comprehensive macro-prudential management system to monitor and mitigate systemic financial risks [8] - It suggests expanding the coverage of macro-prudential policies and enhancing the regulatory framework for systemically important financial institutions [8]

Core Insights - Recent slowdown in resident deposit growth and increase in non-bank deposits are primarily linked to prior regulations on interbank demand deposit rates [1][2] - The concept of "deposit migration" to the stock market is viewed as a reallocation of deposits among different entities rather than a net decrease in total deposits [1] - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships for macroeconomic balance and resource allocation [1][2] Group 1 - The capital market recovery has led some market institutions to interpret the slowdown in deposit growth as a shift of deposits to the stock market [1] - Experts argue that the term "deposit migration" is not entirely accurate, as it reflects a redistribution of deposits rather than a decrease in total deposits [1] - The increase in stock market value relative to deposits is noted, as rising stock prices elevate the total market capitalization of equities [1] Group 2 - The central bank indicates that changes in return rates and price relationships among different assets guide the flow of funds towards higher returns, impacting various financial markets [2] - Investors tend to convert savings into other assets when deposit rates decline, often resulting in investments in wealth management products, which still predominantly lead to interbank deposits or bonds [2] - The trend of slowing resident deposit growth and increasing non-bank deposits is attributed to previous regulations on interbank demand deposit rates, with non-bank entities favoring term deposits and interbank certificates [2]