1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy focus this week includes strengthened regulation of pig production capacity and the central bank's potential increased efforts to maintain the financial market [1][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Policy Weekly Observation 3.1.1 This Week's Policy Highlights - Strengthened regulation of pig production capacity and the central bank may increase efforts to maintain the financial market [1][9]. 3.1.2 Specific Policy Review - **Trade Policy**: On March 16, 2026, China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Paris, France, and agreed to study the establishment of a cooperation mechanism. China opposes the US's imposition of unilateral tariffs and urges the US to completely cancel such restrictions. The two sides aim to promote the healthy, stable, and sustainable development of bilateral economic and trade relations [4][10]. - **Monetary Policy**: The Party Committee of the People's Bank of China held an enlarged meeting, emphasizing the firm maintenance of the stable operation of financial markets such as stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use various policy tools to maintain liquidity, and study the establishment of a liquidity support mechanism for non - bank financial institutions in specific scenarios [4][10]. - **Agricultural Policy**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a symposium for pig - breeding enterprises. Due to factors such as the decline in post - festival consumer demand, pig prices have entered the first - level early - warning range of excessive decline. The state has started the purchase and storage of central frozen pork reserves and will continue to strengthen the comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity [4][10]. - **Macro - economic Policy**: Li Qiang chaired the 11th plenary meeting of the State Council, emphasizing the implementation of strategic deployments for economic and social development in 2026 and the "15th Five - Year Plan," including promoting the construction of a unified national market, developing new - generation intelligent manufacturing, and investing more in people and serving people's livelihoods [12]. - **Fiscal Policy**: The Ministry of Finance released the report on the implementation of China's fiscal policy in 2025, including supporting the construction of a strong domestic market, implementing a package of fiscal and financial policies to promote domestic demand, and improving the management of special bonds [12]. - **Industrial Policy**: The National Development and Reform Commission organized the application for national - level landmark major application scenario projects, and the Ministry of Commerce issued policies to promote travel service exports and expand inbound consumption. The National Development and Reform Commission also plans to accelerate the formulation of an action plan for the expansion and quality improvement of the service industry [12]. - **Financial Work**: The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a meeting to deploy key tasks for 2026, focusing on anti - corruption in key areas and strengthening the supervision of public power. Five departments, including the Ministry of Justice, solicited public opinions on the "Law of the People's Republic of China on Finance (Draft)" [14]. - **Real Estate Policy**: Nanjing issued policies to stabilize the real estate market, including supporting "help - selling" services, providing loan interest subsidies for "selling old and buying new" homebuyers, and adjusting the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans [14].

Core Viewpoint - The draft of the Financial Law aims to establish a comprehensive legal framework for China's financial system, ensuring stability and supporting the country's modernization efforts [3]. Group 1: Financial Law Draft Overview - The draft consists of 11 chapters and 95 articles, summarizing the achievements in financial legal construction since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China [3]. - It emphasizes the need for centralized leadership from the Party and aims to build a strong financial nation that supports the modernization of the Chinese nation [3]. Group 2: Key Provisions of the Draft - It clarifies the overall requirements for financial work, focusing on the construction of a modern central bank system and the establishment of a macro-prudential management framework [3]. - The draft regulates the behavior of financial institutions, implementing full-cycle management for their entry, operation, and exit [3]. - It aims to enhance the standardization of financial products and services, ensuring compliance and addressing issues like financial fraud [3]. - The draft outlines the functions of financial markets and establishes mechanisms for market stability and risk management [3]. - It strengthens financial regulation by defining responsibilities across various sectors and ensuring comprehensive oversight [3]. - The draft proposes a market-oriented and legal approach to financial risk disposal, aiming to prevent systemic financial risks [3]. - It emphasizes the importance of high-quality financial development while ensuring safety and efficiency in resource allocation [3]. - The draft increases legal accountability for violations in the financial sector, raising the costs of illegal activities [3].

Group 1 - The National People's Congress held a press conference on March 6, 2026, addressing issues related to development reform, fiscal budget, commerce, finance, and securities [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) plans to implement policies to support the capital market and enhance its stability through the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. acting as a stabilizing fund [2] - PBOC will utilize macro-prudential and financial stability policy tools to mitigate or block the transmission of international financial market risks to China's financial market [3]

1. Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the bond market has continued to improve, but the momentum for further decline in interest rates is insufficient. The planned issuance of local government bonds may indicate that the supply pressure in February is advancing, and the market's concerns about the imbalance between supply and demand have not been fully alleviated. The large - scale net injection of MLF this month has reduced the market's expectation of a reserve - requirement ratio cut in the first quarter. Additionally, although the equity market has cooled down under regulatory policy adjustments, market expectations remain optimistic, which may continue to suppress the bond market. It is expected that interest rates will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, and the market is still waiting for new incremental information to make a directional choice [105]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 30 - year and 2 - year Treasury bond futures' main contracts fell by 0.34% and 0.02% respectively, while the 10 - year and 5 - year main contracts rose by 0.11% and 0.01% respectively. The trading volumes of the TF and T main contracts increased, while those of the TS and TL main contracts decreased. The open interests of the TF, TS, and TL main contracts decreased, while that of the T main contract increased [13][22][30]. 3.2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: In Q4 2025, the balance of RMB real - estate loans was 51.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%, with a full - year reduction of 963.6 billion yuan. The balance of real - estate development loans was 13.16 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0%, with a full - year reduction of 357.5 billion yuan. The balance of personal housing loans was 37.01 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%, with a full - year reduction of 676.8 billion yuan. In 2025, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises was 7.3982 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, and in December, the profit increased by 5.3% year - on - year. The National Tax Work Conference proposed to strengthen the standardization of tax incentives. The State Council issued a work plan to cultivate new growth points in service consumption [33][34]. - **Overseas News**: The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%. The US Senate failed to advance the government appropriation bill, and the US federal government faced a partial shutdown crisis [35]. 3.3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes**: The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year Treasury bond yields widened, while the spread between 10 - year and 1 - year yields narrowed. The spreads between the 2 - year and 5 - year, and 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts widened. The inter - period spread of the 10 - year contract narrowed, while that of the 30 - year contract widened. The inter - period spread of the 5 - year contract narrowed, and that of the 2 - year contract widened [43][49][53]. - **Main Contract Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 holders in the T Treasury bond futures' main contract increased significantly [66]. - **Interest Rate Changes**: The 2 - week and 1 - week Shibor rates rose, while the overnight and 1 - month Shibor rates fell. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded to around 1.59%. The yields of Treasury bonds fluctuated within a narrow range, with the 1.7 - year yield falling by 0.3 - 1.8bp, and the 10 - year and 30 - year yields changing to 1.81% and 2.26% respectively. The spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields widened [70][77]. - **Central Bank's Open - Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 1.7615 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases in the open market, with 1.181 trillion yuan maturing, and 200 billion yuan in MLF maturing, achieving a net injection of 530.5 billion yuan [81]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the total bond issuance was 1.026865 trillion yuan, with a total repayment of 776.835 billion yuan, and a net financing of 250.029 billion yuan [86]. - **Market Sentiment**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.9678, with a cumulative appreciation of 251 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB narrowed. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield rose, and the VIX index declined. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield declined, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly [90][96][101]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In Q4 2025, China's GDP increased by 4.5% year - on - year, and the full - year GDP growth rate reached 5.0%. In December, industrial added value was higher than market expectations, fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and social retail sales were lower than the previous value. In December, the profit of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the full - year profit increased, reversing the three - year downward trend. China's economic growth showed a pattern of "strong external demand and weak domestic demand" and "strong supply and weak demand" [104]. - **Overseas Situation**: The US government appropriation bill failed to pass the vote, and the federal government faced a shutdown crisis. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged in January, indicating that inflation was still high, employment growth was sluggish, but concerns about the downward risk of the labor force were alleviated [104].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - share major indices declined collectively this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index falling less than 1%. The performance of the four stock - index futures was differentiated, with large - cap blue - chip stocks outperforming small and medium - cap stocks. The market sentiment for chasing growth sectors cooled, and the market tilted towards the value style. The trading activity in the market rebounded significantly compared with last week [6][12]. - This week, treasury bond futures showed mixed performance. The TS and TL main contracts fell by 0.02% and 0.34% respectively, while the TF and T main contracts rose by 0.01% and 0.11% respectively. The issuance plan of local bonds may indicate that the supply pressure in February is advanced, and the market's concern about the imbalance between supply and demand has not been fully alleviated. The large - scale net injection of MLF this month has reduced the market's expectation of a reserve requirement ratio cut in the first quarter. In addition, the optimistic expectation of the equity market may continue to suppress the bond market [6]. - The conflict between the US and Iran pushed up oil prices. Although precious metals were under heavy selling pressure due to profit - taking overnight, the decline narrowed significantly under the dual hedging sentiment of the US government's potential shutdown and regional tensions. Precious metals and crude oil are expected to remain strong in the short term, and the commodity index is expected to continue its strong trend [6]. - The US dollar continued its weak trend. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged as expected, and the tense situation between the US and Iran led to high market risk - aversion sentiment. The euro continued to strengthen, and the market expected the ECB to keep the interest rate unchanged next week. The Bank of Japan maintained the interest rate unchanged, and the domestic CPI in Japan declined slightly from a high level [10]. - In 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China increased year - on - year, reversing the three - year decline. The profits of equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing increased significantly, and the long - term positive trend of industrial enterprise profits remained unchanged [11]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions - **Stock**: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 0.08%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock - index futures fell 0.07%. A - share major indices declined collectively, and the market tilted towards the value style. The trading activity rebounded. The allocation suggestion is to buy on dips [6]. - **Bond**: The 10 - year treasury bond yield fell 0.07% this week, with a change of - 0.14BP, and the main 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.10%. Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance. The allocation suggestion is to operate within a range [6]. - **Commodity**: The Wind Commodity Index rose 5.71%, and the CSI Commodity Futures Price Index rose 3.33%. Precious metals and crude oil are expected to remain strong. The allocation suggestion is to buy on dips [6]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro against the US dollar rose 0.75%, and the euro against the US dollar 2603 contract rose 0.59%. The US dollar continued to be weak. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [6]. 2. Important News and Events - **Domestic**: By the end of 2025, the total assets of central state - owned enterprises exceeded 95 trillion yuan. The central bank will expand the scope of macro - prudential policies. Policies to cultivate new growth points in service consumption will be introduced. In 2025, 12.67 million new urban jobs were created in China [14]. - **International**: The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%. The EU and India reached a free - trade agreement. Talks between Ukraine, the US, and Russia ended, and the next round may be held next week. The US population growth slowed significantly last year [15]. 3. This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: The year - on - year growth rate of the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in December 2025 was 5.3% [16]. - **US**: The monthly rate of durable goods orders in November was 5.3%, the annual rate of the S&P/CS 20 - city non - seasonally adjusted house price index was 1.4%, the Fed's interest rate decision (upper limit) on January 28 was 3.75%, the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending January 24 was 209,000, the monthly rate of factory orders in November was 2.7%, and the monthly rate of wholesale sales in November was 1.3% [16]. - **EU**: The industrial sentiment index in the eurozone in January was - 6.8, and the economic sentiment index was 99.4 [16]. - **Germany**: The IFO business climate index in January was 87.6 [16]. 4. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - February 2: US January ISM Manufacturing PMI (previous value: 47.9) [79]. - February 3: France January CPI monthly rate preliminary value (previous value: 0.1) [79]. - February 4: Eurozone January CPI monthly rate preliminary value (previous value: 0.2), Eurozone December PPI monthly rate (previous value: 0.5), US January ADP employment (previous value: 410,000) [79]. - February 5: France December industrial output monthly rate (previous value: - 0.1), UK central bank interest rate decision (previous value: 3.75%), eurozone European Central Bank deposit facility rate (previous value: 2) [79]. - February 6: Germany December seasonally adjusted industrial output monthly rate (previous value: 0.8), US January unemployment rate (previous value: 4.4%), US January seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls (previous value: 500,000) [79].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current domestic macro news remains calm, and the regulatory level focuses on "cooling down" the market to guide the stock index to show a "slow bull" pattern [6]. - The market trading volume stays above the high level of 2.5 trillion, indicating strong trading activity and liquidity - driven force [6]. - Before the Spring Festival, the domestic macro - level may be in a relatively calm period, and the market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. It is expected that the short - term shock adjustment space of the stock index is limited, and it will mainly show a relatively strong shock before the festival [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Money Market - DR001 closed at 1.37 with a -0.02bp change, DR007 at 1.55 with a -3.50bp change, GC001 at 1.48 with a 12.00bp change, GC007 at 1.61 with a -1.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.59 with a -0.21bp change, and LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change [3]. - The 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.30 with a 0.25bp change, the 5 - year at 1.52 with a -1.25bp change, the 10 - year at 1.82 with a -1.50bp change, and the 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.24 with a 2.00bp change [3]. - The central bank conducted 377.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%, which was the same as before [3]. - This week, 1.181 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase in the central bank's open market will expire, and 200 billion yuan of MLF will expire on Monday [4]. Stock Index Futures Market - The closing prices and changes of major stock indexes: CSI 300 rose 0.26% to 4718, SSE 50 rose 0.27% to 3061, CSI 500 rose 0.61% to 8601, and CSI 1000 rose 0.21% to 8400 [5]. - The closing prices and changes of stock index futures contracts: IF current month rose 0.3% to 4728, IH current month rose 0.2% to 3066, IC current month rose 0.8% to 8623, IM current month rose 0.3% to 8407 [5]. - The trading volume and position changes of stock index futures contracts: IF trading volume was 142,902 with a 0.0% change and its position increased by 5.0%; IH trading volume decreased by 6.6% to 63,381 and its position increased by 3.4%; IC trading volume decreased by 19.3% to 170,659 and its position decreased by 0.3%; IM trading volume decreased by 26.0% to 194,080 and its position decreased by 3.9% [5]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.9926 trillion yuan, an increase of 70.9 billion yuan compared with the previous day. Most industry sectors declined, with precious metals, jewelry, mining, non - ferrous metals, small metals, and coal industries leading the gains, while photovoltaic equipment, medical devices, medical services, biological products, and aerospace sectors leading the losses [5]. Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount Situation - The premium and discount rates of IF contracts: -3.30% for the current month, -2.25% for the next month, 0.06% for the current quarter, and 1.59% for the next quarter [7]. - The premium and discount rates of IH contracts: -2.61% for the current month, -2.16% for the next month, -0.79% for the current quarter, and 0.75% for the next quarter [7]. - The premium and discount rates of IC contracts: -4.07% for the current month, -1.73% for the next month, 0.79% for the current quarter, and 2.41% for the next quarter [7]. - The premium and discount rates of IM contracts: -1.44% for the current month, 1.87% for the next month, 4.81% for the current quarter, and 6.06% for the next quarter [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, China's industrial enterprise profit growth turned positive, with a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, the first positive growth since 2021, and the profit in December increased significantly by 5.3%. - The stock index showed a "V" shape intraday, and the volatility of stock index options decreased significantly. The market is expected to be mainly in a relatively strong shock before the Spring Festival, and the short - term shock adjustment space is limited [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market Interest Rates** - DRO01 closed at 1.37, down 4.98bp; DR007 closed at 1.58, up 0.95bp; GC001 closed at 1.36, down 1.50bp; GC007 closed at 1.62, unchanged; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.60, down 0.10bp; LPR 5 - year was 3.50, unchanged; 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.29, up 0.75bp; 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.54, unchanged; 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.83, up 0.45bp; 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.22, down 2.00bp [4]. - The central bank conducted 4020 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from before [4]. - **Open Market Operations** - This week, 11810 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will mature, with 1583 billion, 3240 billion, 3635 billion, 2102 billion, and 1250 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. In addition, 2000 billion yuan of MLF will mature on Monday [5]. - The central bank emphasized expanding the scope of macro - prudential policies, predicting systemic financial risks, and maintaining the stability of the financial market [5]. - **Stock Index Futures and Spot Markets** - The CSI 300 closed at 4706, down 0.03%; the SSE 50 closed at 3052, up 0.09%; the CSI 500 closed at 8549, up 0.50%; the CSI 1000 closed at 8382, up 0.20%. The IF contract for the current month closed at 4715, unchanged; the IH contract for the current month closed at 3060, up 0.2%; the IC contract for the current month closed at 8554, up 0.8%; the IM contract for the current month closed at 8386, up 0.7% [6]. - The trading volume of IF was 142964, down 24.6; the trading volume of IH was 67869, down 19.8; the trading volume of IC was 211372, down 6.8; the trading volume of IM was 262400, down 5.3. The positions of IF were 310326, with an unspecified change; the positions of IH were 114497, down 3.5%; the positions of IC were 343302, down 0.2%; the positions of IM were 398403, up 1.0% [6]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock markets was 29217 billion yuan, a decrease of 3593 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors declined, with precious metals, semiconductors, photovoltaic equipment, aerospace and insurance sectors rising, and coal, pharmaceutical commerce, energy metals, batteries and traditional Chinese medicine sectors falling [6]. - **Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount** - The IF premium/discount rates for the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts were - 2.94%, - 1.87%, 0.15%, and 1.73% respectively. - The IH premium/discount rates for the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts were - 3.89%, - 2.67%, - 1.31%, and 0.53% respectively. - The IC premium/discount rates for the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts were - 0.94%, 0.11%, 2.21%, and 3.26% respectively. - The IM premium/discount rates for the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts were - 0.63%, 2.09%, 4.93%, and 6.02% respectively [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends, resistance, and support levels of various futures contracts on January 27, 2026, and the trends of the main continuous contracts in January 2026 [2][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **January 27, 2026**: Index futures will oscillate and consolidate; gold futures will oscillate widely; silver futures will oscillate strongly; platinum, palladium, coking coal, and fuel oil futures will oscillate weakly; copper, nickel, tin, and palm oil futures will oscillate strongly; glass, soda ash, crude oil, and methanol futures will oscillate weakly; lithium carbonate and butadiene futures will oscillate strongly and widely [2]. - **January 2026**: Index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM) will oscillate strongly; gold, silver, platinum, copper, tin, and lithium carbonate futures will oscillate strongly and may hit new highs; coking coal futures will oscillate widely; glass and soda ash futures will oscillate weakly and widely; crude oil futures will oscillate strongly and widely [4]. Macro News and Trading Tips - Diplomatic reminder: Chinese citizens are advised to avoid traveling to Japan during the Spring Festival due to safety concerns. Multiple airlines have extended the free refund and rescheduling policy for Japan - bound flights [5]. - Policy promotion: Policies to cultivate new growth points in service consumption will be introduced, including measures to expand inbound consumption, build national digital trade demonstration zones, and promote consumption of large - durable goods [5]. - Central bank actions: The central bank emphasizes expanding the scope of macro - prudential policies and supporting the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to double the RMB business fund arrangement [5][6]. - International trade: The US threatens to impose a 100% tariff on Canadian imports if Canada reaches a new trade agreement with China. The EU approves a ban on Russian natural gas imports [6][10]. - Market data: In 2025, domestic residents' travel volume increased by 16.2% year - on - year, and travel spending increased by 9.5%. The probability of a US government shutdown by the end of January has soared [7]. Commodity Futures Information - On January 26, 2026, precious metals fluctuated sharply. COMEX silver and gold initially rose significantly but then declined. London base metals mostly rose, and oil prices fell slightly [8][9][10]. - Exchanges took measures to cool the commodity futures market, including adjusting trading limits and margin ratios [9]. - Hong Kong plans to increase gold storage and establish a gold central clearing system [9]. - OPEC + is expected to continue the current production policy [9]. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Index Futures**: On January 26, 2026, the performance of various index futures contracts was mixed. The market is expected to oscillate and consolidate on January 27, 2026, and the main continuous contracts in January 2026 will mostly oscillate strongly [11][12][15][16]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures showed strong upward trends on January 26, 2026. They are expected to oscillate strongly in January 2026 and may hit new highs. On January 27, 2026, gold will oscillate widely, silver will oscillate strongly, and platinum and palladium will oscillate weakly [35][41][49][52]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper, nickel, and tin futures showed different trends on January 26, 2026. They are expected to oscillate strongly in January 2026 and may hit new highs. On January 27, 2026, they will mostly oscillate strongly [58][63][68]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: Coking coal, glass, soda ash, crude oil, fuel oil, and methanol futures showed different trends on January 26, 2026. They are expected to have different trends in January 2026 and on January 27, 2026, with some oscillating weakly and some oscillating strongly [77][80][84][87][93]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Palm oil and butadiene futures showed strong upward trends on January 26, 2026. They are expected to oscillate strongly on January 27, 2026 [96][100].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Indian government will significantly reduce tariffs on EU imports, which is expected to save about 4 billion euros in annual tariffs for European products [2] - The People's Bank of China plans to expand the scope of macro - prudential policies and improve RMB cross - border use policies [2] - Trump plans to raise tariffs on South Korean imports, and South Korea is discussing countermeasures [3] - The increase in US core capital goods orders in November exceeded expectations, indicating a strong performance of the US economy in Q4 2025 [3] - The short - term upward space of the bond market is limited, but there may be room for compression of the long - term spread. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider a small - position layout for the long - end spread compression strategy [4][5] - The precious metals market has strong upward momentum, but the operation is difficult due to high volatility. It is recommended to enter or replenish long positions after the volatility decreases [6][8] - The container shipping index is expected to fluctuate weakly. Hedging positions should be held, and forward arbitrage profits between EC2604 and EC2608 contracts can be gradually reduced [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1. Daily News - India will gradually reduce the tariff on EU automobiles from 110% to 10% with a quota of 250,000 vehicles per year, and will completely cancel auto parts tariffs in 5 - 10 years. Tariffs on machinery, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals will also be mostly removed. High tariffs on EU agricultural products will also be reduced or removed, saving about 4 billion euros in annual tariffs for European products [2] - The People's Bank of China will expand the scope of macro - prudential policies, judge potential financial risks, and improve RMB cross - border use policies [2] - Trump plans to raise tariffs on South Korean cars, timber, and pharmaceuticals to 25%, and South Korea is discussing countermeasures [3] - US core capital goods orders in November increased by 0.7% month - on - month, exceeding the expected 0.3%, indicating a strong performance of the US economy in Q4 2025 [3] 3.2. Variety Views 3.2.1. Treasury Futures - On Tuesday, the treasury bond market continued to fluctuate narrowly. Trump's plan to raise tariffs on South Korea had a muted impact on the bond market. The central bank conducted 402 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 324 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing, resulting in a net injection of 78 billion yuan. The money market was loose, with DR001 down 5BP to 1.36% and DR007 up 1BP to 1.58% [4] - Since mid - January, treasury bonds have been on a recovery path, mainly driven by the correction of pessimistic expectations. At the beginning of the year, treasury futures were under pressure due to expectations of stable growth and concerns about supply. After the regulatory authorities cooled the equity market in mid - January, the impact of risk appetite on the bond market weakened. The central bank's net injection of 700 billion yuan through MLF and the slower - than - expected issuance of local bonds have supported the bond market in the short term [4] - Currently, the bond market recovery is nearing its end, and the valuation is relatively neutral. Without new positive drivers, the short - term upward space may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see. The long - term spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds is high, and investors can consider a small - position layout for the long - end spread compression strategy [5] 3.2.2. Precious Metals - In the Asian session today, the precious metals sector opened lower and moved higher, but with increased volatility and significant divergence. Domestic gold and silver rose 1.52% and 7.25% respectively, while platinum and palladium fell 4.61% and 2.08% respectively [6] - In the past two weeks, the precious metals sector has shown strong performance. Domestic gold, silver, platinum, and palladium have risen 17%, 65%, 32%, and 20% respectively since the beginning of the year. The short - term fluctuations of silver are affected by factors such as commodity position adjustment, Trump's "TACO" policy, and the issue of the Fed's independence [6] - Trump's "TACO" policy has little impact on the upward trend of precious metals. The issue of the Fed's independence remains complex, and the inventory shortage in the market continues. Although silver may have reached a short - term peak, the adjustment space is expected to be limited. It is recommended to enter or replenish long positions after the volatility decreases [7][8] 3.2.3. Container Shipping Index - On Tuesday, the main contract of the container shipping index closed slightly lower with reduced trading volume, and trading sentiment became more cautious. Before the Spring Festival, export transportation demand decreased, and shipping companies continued to cut prices to attract customers, putting pressure on the index. However, geopolitical risks in the Red Sea and the potential for pre - policy - adjustment export rush may support the index. Fundamentally, the spot market faces pressure from pre - Spring Festival cargo collection and sufficient capacity supply, and the index is expected to fluctuate weakly. Hedging positions should be held, and forward arbitrage profits between EC2604 and EC2608 contracts can be gradually reduced [9] 3.3. Future Key Data - Tonight at 23:00, the US January Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index will be released, with a previous value of 89.1 and a forecast of 90.6 [13] - Tomorrow at 23:30, the change in US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending January 23 will be released, with a previous value of 3.602 million barrels [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - As some negative factors ease, bond market sentiment continues to improve, but the impetus for further interest rate decline is insufficient. In 2025, China's economic structural contradictions still need to be improved. In the next stage, facing significant external uncertainty pressure, the endogenous growth foundation of the economy needs to be further consolidated, and expanding domestic demand will become the policy focus. In January, the issuance rhythm of interest - rate bonds is stable, and market concerns about the supply pressure of long - term bonds are alleviated. The large - scale net injection of MLF this month reduces the expected impact of a reserve requirement ratio cut in the first quarter. It is expected that interest rates will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, and the market is still waiting for new incremental information for directional selection [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Prices and Volumes**: T主力收盘价108.185, unchanged; TF主力收盘价105.840, unchanged; TS主力收盘价102.386, unchanged; TL主力收盘价112.090, down 0.33%. T主力成交量56180, down 3528; TF主力成交量52579, up 5250; TS主力成交量27089, down 1924; TL主力成交量96254, up 24158 [2] - **Futures Spreads**: TL2603 - 2606价差 - 0.11, up 0.06; T2603 - 2606价差0.02, up 0.02; TF2603 - 2606价差 - 0.04, up 0.01; TS2603 - 2606价差 - 0.03, unchanged; T03 - TL03价差 - 3.91, up 0.42; TF03 - T03价差 - 2.35, down 0.01; TS03 - T03价差 - 5.80, down 0.01; TS03 - TF03价差 - 3.45, unchanged [2] - **Futures Positions**: T主力持仓量248338, up 1998; TF主力持仓量143904, down 2396; TS主力持仓量66869, down 722; TL主力持仓量136475, down 5237. T前20名多头225414, up 1379; T前20名空头243099, up 4880; T前20名净空仓2219, up 2574; TF前20名多头141107, down 2354; TF前20名空头158492, down 36; TF前20名净空仓17385, up 2318; TS前20名多头54511, down 284; TS前20名空头61569, down 633; TS前20名净空仓7058, down 349; TL前20名多头139367, down 1387; TL前20名空头146907, down 3484; TL前20名净空仓7540, down 2097 [2] 2. CTD and Active Bond Data - **CTD Net Prices**: 250018.IB(6y) 100.5099, down 0.0221; 250025.IB(6y) 99.0955, unchanged; 230014.IB(4y) 104.7385, down 0.0246; 240020.IB(4y) 100.8844, down 0.0201; 250017.IB(2y) 100.0618, down 0.0283; 250024.IB(2y) 99.916, down 0.0138; 210005.IB(17y) 126.4927, down 0.4440; 210014.IB(18y) 123.3928, down 0.2776 [2] - **Active Bond Yields**: 1y 1.2850, up 1.00bp; 3y 1.4160, down 0.10bp; 5y 1.5785, up 0.15bp; 7y 1.6940, up 0.15bp; 10y 1.8155, down 0.55bp [2] 3. Interest Rate Data - **Short - term Interest Rates**: 银质押隔夜1.3681, down 6.68bp; Shibor隔夜1.3710, down 4.90bp; 银质押7天1.5900, up 0.81bp; Shibor7天1.5640, up 2.10bp; 银质押14天1.6000, down 0.89bp; Shibor14天1.5990, unchanged [2] - **LPR Rates**: 1y 3.00, unchanged; 5y 3.5, unchanged [2] 4. Open Market Operations - 发行规模4020亿, 到期规模3240亿, 利率1.4% for 7 - day reverse repurchase, net injection 780亿 [2] 5. Industry News - The People's Bank of China held the 2026 macro - prudential work conference, emphasizing gradually expanding the coverage of macro - prudential policies, proactively assessing potential systemic financial risks, innovating and enriching the policy toolbox, and maintaining the stable operation of the financial market and the overall stability of the financial system [2] - Deputy Governor Zou Lan of the central bank said that the PBOC supports the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to double the scale of RMB business fund arrangements to 200 billion yuan, supports the Hong Kong RMB clearing bank to obtain RMB liquidity from the mainland through issuing inter - bank certificates of deposit, increases the supply of offshore RMB treasury bonds, and explores and expands the mechanism of using RMB bonds as offshore eligible collateral [2] - Policies to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption will be introduced soon. The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Commerce introduced that policies to expand inbound consumption will be introduced, the construction of a national digital trade demonstration zone will be launched, the implementation of trade - in of consumer goods will be optimized to promote the consumption of large - scale durable goods such as automobiles and home appliances, a pilot reform of automobile circulation and consumption will be carried out, and a national - level overseas comprehensive service platform will be launched soon [2] 6. Market Situation and Outlook - On Tuesday, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds weakened collectively. The yields of 1.7Y bonds rose by about 0.35 - 0.75bp, the yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds were flat, and the TL main contract fell by 0.33%. The money market continued to tighten, and the weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.58%. The yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds rose by about 0.55 and 1.30bp to 1.83% and 2.26% respectively. On Tuesday, treasury bond futures showed mixed performance, with the TS, TF, and T main contracts having different trends [3] - In terms of domestic fundamentals, China's GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 increased by 4.5% year - on - year, and the annual GDP growth rate reached 5.0%, successfully achieving the expected growth target. In December, industrial added value was higher than market expectations, fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and social retail sales were lower than the previous value. December's financial data exceeded expectations, the growth rate of social financing continued to decline, and government bonds caused a large drag; credit increased slightly less, the marginal demand for medium - and long - term corporate financing improved, but the trend of household de - leveraging continued, and credit performance remained weak. The profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in December increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual profits achieved growth, reversing the three - year downward trend [3] - Overseas, the final annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP growth rate of the United States in the third quarter of 2025 was 4.4%, the fastest in nearly two years. The core PCE price index in November increased by 2.8% year - on - year, and the inflation level remained stable [3] 7. Key Events to Watch - January 28, 07:50, the Bank of Japan will release the minutes of the December 2025 monetary policy meeting - January 29, 03:00, the Federal Reserve FOMC will announce the interest rate decision [3]