1. Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the bond market has continued to improve, but the momentum for further decline in interest rates is insufficient. The planned issuance of local government bonds may indicate that the supply pressure in February is advancing, and the market's concerns about the imbalance between supply and demand have not been fully alleviated. The large - scale net injection of MLF this month has reduced the market's expectation of a reserve - requirement ratio cut in the first quarter. Additionally, although the equity market has cooled down under regulatory policy adjustments, market expectations remain optimistic, which may continue to suppress the bond market. It is expected that interest rates will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, and the market is still waiting for new incremental information to make a directional choice [105]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 30 - year and 2 - year Treasury bond futures' main contracts fell by 0.34% and 0.02% respectively, while the 10 - year and 5 - year main contracts rose by 0.11% and 0.01% respectively. The trading volumes of the TF and T main contracts increased, while those of the TS and TL main contracts decreased. The open interests of the TF, TS, and TL main contracts decreased, while that of the T main contract increased [13][22][30]. 3.2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: In Q4 2025, the balance of RMB real - estate loans was 51.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%, with a full - year reduction of 963.6 billion yuan. The balance of real - estate development loans was 13.16 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0%, with a full - year reduction of 357.5 billion yuan. The balance of personal housing loans was 37.01 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%, with a full - year reduction of 676.8 billion yuan. In 2025, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises was 7.3982 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, and in December, the profit increased by 5.3% year - on - year. The National Tax Work Conference proposed to strengthen the standardization of tax incentives. The State Council issued a work plan to cultivate new growth points in service consumption [33][34]. - **Overseas News**: The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%. The US Senate failed to advance the government appropriation bill, and the US federal government faced a partial shutdown crisis [35]. 3.3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes**: The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year Treasury bond yields widened, while the spread between 10 - year and 1 - year yields narrowed. The spreads between the 2 - year and 5 - year, and 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts widened. The inter - period spread of the 10 - year contract narrowed, while that of the 30 - year contract widened. The inter - period spread of the 5 - year contract narrowed, and that of the 2 - year contract widened [43][49][53]. - **Main Contract Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 holders in the T Treasury bond futures' main contract increased significantly [66]. - **Interest Rate Changes**: The 2 - week and 1 - week Shibor rates rose, while the overnight and 1 - month Shibor rates fell. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded to around 1.59%. The yields of Treasury bonds fluctuated within a narrow range, with the 1.7 - year yield falling by 0.3 - 1.8bp, and the 10 - year and 30 - year yields changing to 1.81% and 2.26% respectively. The spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields widened [70][77]. - **Central Bank's Open - Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 1.7615 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases in the open market, with 1.181 trillion yuan maturing, and 200 billion yuan in MLF maturing, achieving a net injection of 530.5 billion yuan [81]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the total bond issuance was 1.026865 trillion yuan, with a total repayment of 776.835 billion yuan, and a net financing of 250.029 billion yuan [86]. - **Market Sentiment**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.9678, with a cumulative appreciation of 251 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB narrowed. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield rose, and the VIX index declined. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield declined, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly [90][96][101]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In Q4 2025, China's GDP increased by 4.5% year - on - year, and the full - year GDP growth rate reached 5.0%. In December, industrial added value was higher than market expectations, fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and social retail sales were lower than the previous value. In December, the profit of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the full - year profit increased, reversing the three - year downward trend. China's economic growth showed a pattern of "strong external demand and weak domestic demand" and "strong supply and weak demand" [104]. - **Overseas Situation**: The US government appropriation bill failed to pass the vote, and the federal government faced a shutdown crisis. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged in January, indicating that inflation was still high, employment growth was sluggish, but concerns about the downward risk of the labor force were alleviated [104].

关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 瑞达期货研究院 「2026.1.30」 宏观市场周报 业务咨询 目录 添加客服 「本周小结及下周配置建议」 | 股票 | 债券 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪深 300 +0.08% | 10 年国债到期收益率-0.07%/本周变动-0.14BP | | | 沪深 300 股指期货 -0.07% | 主力 10 年期国债期货 +0.10% | | | 本周点评：A股主要指数本周集体下跌，上证指数、创 | 本周点评：本周国债期货涨跌不一，TS、TL主力合约分 | | | 业板指跌幅较小不足1%。四期指表现分化，大盘蓝筹 | 别下跌 0.02% 、0.34% ， TF 、 T 主 力 合 约分 别 上 涨 | | | 股强于中小盘股。本周，国内经济数据较少，仅周二公 | 0.01%、0.11%。近期地方债发行计划或显示2月供给 | | | 布规上工业企业利润，在缺乏数据指引背景下，市场对 | 压力有所前置，市场对供需失衡担忧尚未完全缓解。本 | | | 成长板块 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current domestic macro news remains calm, and the regulatory level focuses on "cooling down" the market to guide the stock index to show a "slow bull" pattern [6]. - The market trading volume stays above the high level of 2.5 trillion, indicating strong trading activity and liquidity - driven force [6]. - Before the Spring Festival, the domestic macro - level may be in a relatively calm period, and the market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. It is expected that the short - term shock adjustment space of the stock index is limited, and it will mainly show a relatively strong shock before the festival [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Money Market - DR001 closed at 1.37 with a -0.02bp change, DR007 at 1.55 with a -3.50bp change, GC001 at 1.48 with a 12.00bp change, GC007 at 1.61 with a -1.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.59 with a -0.21bp change, and LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change [3]. - The 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.30 with a 0.25bp change, the 5 - year at 1.52 with a -1.25bp change, the 10 - year at 1.82 with a -1.50bp change, and the 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.24 with a 2.00bp change [3]. - The central bank conducted 377.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%, which was the same as before [3]. - This week, 1.181 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase in the central bank's open market will expire, and 200 billion yuan of MLF will expire on Monday [4]. Stock Index Futures Market - The closing prices and changes of major stock indexes: CSI 300 rose 0.26% to 4718, SSE 50 rose 0.27% to 3061, CSI 500 rose 0.61% to 8601, and CSI 1000 rose 0.21% to 8400 [5]. - The closing prices and changes of stock index futures contracts: IF current month rose 0.3% to 4728, IH current month rose 0.2% to 3066, IC current month rose 0.8% to 8623, IM current month rose 0.3% to 8407 [5]. - The trading volume and position changes of stock index futures contracts: IF trading volume was 142,902 with a 0.0% change and its position increased by 5.0%; IH trading volume decreased by 6.6% to 63,381 and its position increased by 3.4%; IC trading volume decreased by 19.3% to 170,659 and its position decreased by 0.3%; IM trading volume decreased by 26.0% to 194,080 and its position decreased by 3.9% [5]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.9926 trillion yuan, an increase of 70.9 billion yuan compared with the previous day. Most industry sectors declined, with precious metals, jewelry, mining, non - ferrous metals, small metals, and coal industries leading the gains, while photovoltaic equipment, medical devices, medical services, biological products, and aerospace sectors leading the losses [5]. Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount Situation - The premium and discount rates of IF contracts: -3.30% for the current month, -2.25% for the next month, 0.06% for the current quarter, and 1.59% for the next quarter [7]. - The premium and discount rates of IH contracts: -2.61% for the current month, -2.16% for the next month, -0.79% for the current quarter, and 0.75% for the next quarter [7]. - The premium and discount rates of IC contracts: -4.07% for the current month, -1.73% for the next month, 0.79% for the current quarter, and 2.41% for the next quarter [7]. - The premium and discount rates of IM contracts: -1.44% for the current month, 1.87% for the next month, 4.81% for the current quarter, and 6.06% for the next quarter [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, China's industrial enterprise profit growth turned positive, with a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, the first positive growth since 2021, and the profit in December increased significantly by 5.3%. - The stock index showed a "V" shape intraday, and the volatility of stock index options decreased significantly. The market is expected to be mainly in a relatively strong shock before the Spring Festival, and the short - term shock adjustment space is limited [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market Interest Rates** - DRO01 closed at 1.37, down 4.98bp; DR007 closed at 1.58, up 0.95bp; GC001 closed at 1.36, down 1.50bp; GC007 closed at 1.62, unchanged; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.60, down 0.10bp; LPR 5 - year was 3.50, unchanged; 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.29, up 0.75bp; 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.54, unchanged; 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.83, up 0.45bp; 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.22, down 2.00bp [4]. - The central bank conducted 4020 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from before [4]. - **Open Market Operations** - This week, 11810 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will mature, with 1583 billion, 3240 billion, 3635 billion, 2102 billion, and 1250 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. In addition, 2000 billion yuan of MLF will mature on Monday [5]. - The central bank emphasized expanding the scope of macro - prudential policies, predicting systemic financial risks, and maintaining the stability of the financial market [5]. - **Stock Index Futures and Spot Markets** - The CSI 300 closed at 4706, down 0.03%; the SSE 50 closed at 3052, up 0.09%; the CSI 500 closed at 8549, up 0.50%; the CSI 1000 closed at 8382, up 0.20%. The IF contract for the current month closed at 4715, unchanged; the IH contract for the current month closed at 3060, up 0.2%; the IC contract for the current month closed at 8554, up 0.8%; the IM contract for the current month closed at 8386, up 0.7% [6]. - The trading volume of IF was 142964, down 24.6; the trading volume of IH was 67869, down 19.8; the trading volume of IC was 211372, down 6.8; the trading volume of IM was 262400, down 5.3. The positions of IF were 310326, with an unspecified change; the positions of IH were 114497, down 3.5%; the positions of IC were 343302, down 0.2%; the positions of IM were 398403, up 1.0% [6]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock markets was 29217 billion yuan, a decrease of 3593 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors declined, with precious metals, semiconductors, photovoltaic equipment, aerospace and insurance sectors rising, and coal, pharmaceutical commerce, energy metals, batteries and traditional Chinese medicine sectors falling [6]. - **Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount** - The IF premium/discount rates for the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts were - 2.94%, - 1.87%, 0.15%, and 1.73% respectively. - The IH premium/discount rates for the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts were - 3.89%, - 2.67%, - 1.31%, and 0.53% respectively. - The IC premium/discount rates for the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts were - 0.94%, 0.11%, 2.21%, and 3.26% respectively. - The IM premium/discount rates for the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts were - 0.63%, 2.09%, 4.93%, and 6.02% respectively [8].

2026 年 1 月 27 日 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： | 期 货 品 | 主力合 | 趋势 | 阻力位 | | | | 支撑位 | | 重点备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | 约 | | | | | | | | | | 股指 | IF2603 | 震荡整理 | 4756 和 | | 4778 点 | | 4709 和 | 4690 点 | | | 股指 | IH2603 | 震荡整理 | 3085 和 | | 3100 点 | | 3038 和 | 3029 点 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Indian government will significantly reduce tariffs on EU imports, which is expected to save about 4 billion euros in annual tariffs for European products [2] - The People's Bank of China plans to expand the scope of macro - prudential policies and improve RMB cross - border use policies [2] - Trump plans to raise tariffs on South Korean imports, and South Korea is discussing countermeasures [3] - The increase in US core capital goods orders in November exceeded expectations, indicating a strong performance of the US economy in Q4 2025 [3] - The short - term upward space of the bond market is limited, but there may be room for compression of the long - term spread. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider a small - position layout for the long - end spread compression strategy [4][5] - The precious metals market has strong upward momentum, but the operation is difficult due to high volatility. It is recommended to enter or replenish long positions after the volatility decreases [6][8] - The container shipping index is expected to fluctuate weakly. Hedging positions should be held, and forward arbitrage profits between EC2604 and EC2608 contracts can be gradually reduced [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1. Daily News - India will gradually reduce the tariff on EU automobiles from 110% to 10% with a quota of 250,000 vehicles per year, and will completely cancel auto parts tariffs in 5 - 10 years. Tariffs on machinery, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals will also be mostly removed. High tariffs on EU agricultural products will also be reduced or removed, saving about 4 billion euros in annual tariffs for European products [2] - The People's Bank of China will expand the scope of macro - prudential policies, judge potential financial risks, and improve RMB cross - border use policies [2] - Trump plans to raise tariffs on South Korean cars, timber, and pharmaceuticals to 25%, and South Korea is discussing countermeasures [3] - US core capital goods orders in November increased by 0.7% month - on - month, exceeding the expected 0.3%, indicating a strong performance of the US economy in Q4 2025 [3] 3.2. Variety Views 3.2.1. Treasury Futures - On Tuesday, the treasury bond market continued to fluctuate narrowly. Trump's plan to raise tariffs on South Korea had a muted impact on the bond market. The central bank conducted 402 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 324 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing, resulting in a net injection of 78 billion yuan. The money market was loose, with DR001 down 5BP to 1.36% and DR007 up 1BP to 1.58% [4] - Since mid - January, treasury bonds have been on a recovery path, mainly driven by the correction of pessimistic expectations. At the beginning of the year, treasury futures were under pressure due to expectations of stable growth and concerns about supply. After the regulatory authorities cooled the equity market in mid - January, the impact of risk appetite on the bond market weakened. The central bank's net injection of 700 billion yuan through MLF and the slower - than - expected issuance of local bonds have supported the bond market in the short term [4] - Currently, the bond market recovery is nearing its end, and the valuation is relatively neutral. Without new positive drivers, the short - term upward space may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see. The long - term spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds is high, and investors can consider a small - position layout for the long - end spread compression strategy [5] 3.2.2. Precious Metals - In the Asian session today, the precious metals sector opened lower and moved higher, but with increased volatility and significant divergence. Domestic gold and silver rose 1.52% and 7.25% respectively, while platinum and palladium fell 4.61% and 2.08% respectively [6] - In the past two weeks, the precious metals sector has shown strong performance. Domestic gold, silver, platinum, and palladium have risen 17%, 65%, 32%, and 20% respectively since the beginning of the year. The short - term fluctuations of silver are affected by factors such as commodity position adjustment, Trump's "TACO" policy, and the issue of the Fed's independence [6] - Trump's "TACO" policy has little impact on the upward trend of precious metals. The issue of the Fed's independence remains complex, and the inventory shortage in the market continues. Although silver may have reached a short - term peak, the adjustment space is expected to be limited. It is recommended to enter or replenish long positions after the volatility decreases [7][8] 3.2.3. Container Shipping Index - On Tuesday, the main contract of the container shipping index closed slightly lower with reduced trading volume, and trading sentiment became more cautious. Before the Spring Festival, export transportation demand decreased, and shipping companies continued to cut prices to attract customers, putting pressure on the index. However, geopolitical risks in the Red Sea and the potential for pre - policy - adjustment export rush may support the index. Fundamentally, the spot market faces pressure from pre - Spring Festival cargo collection and sufficient capacity supply, and the index is expected to fluctuate weakly. Hedging positions should be held, and forward arbitrage profits between EC2604 and EC2608 contracts can be gradually reduced [9] 3.3. Future Key Data - Tonight at 23:00, the US January Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index will be released, with a previous value of 89.1 and a forecast of 90.6 [13] - Tomorrow at 23:30, the change in US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending January 23 will be released, with a previous value of 3.602 million barrels [14]

| | 周二国债现券收益率集体走弱，到期收益率1.7Y上行0.35-0.75bp左右，10Y、30Y到期收益率 | | --- | --- | | | 平收，TL主力合约下跌0.33%。资金面持续收敛，DR007加权利率回升至1.58%附近震荡。国 | | | 分别上行0.55、1.30bp左右至1.83%、2.26%。周二国债期货涨跌不一，TS、TF、T主力合约 | | | 内基本面端，我国2025年第四季度GDP同比增长4.5%，全年GDP增速达5.0%，圆满实现预期 | | | 增长目标。12月工增高于市场预期，固投规模持续收敛，社零低于前值。12月金融数据超预 | | | 期，社融增速持续回落，政府债造成较大拖累；信贷小幅少增，企业中长期融资需求边际改 | | | 善，但居民去杠杆趋势延续，信贷表现依然偏弱。12月全国规上工企业利润同比5.3%，全年 | | 观点总结 | 利润实现增长，扭转连续三年下行趋势。消息面上，今年首批936亿元超长期特别国债支持设 | | | 备更新资金已下达，将带动总投资超过4600亿元。海外方面，美国2025第三季度GDP终值年 | | | 化环比4.4%，为近两年来最快 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas data shows the resilience of the US economy, further dampening the Fed's rate - cut expectations. The Fed's non - rate - cut expectations, the possible US government shutdown, and geopolitical turmoil affect asset prices. US stocks are mainly influenced by economic fundamentals [2]. - On the domestic A - share market, the market showed a differentiated trend on Monday. The large - finance and other sectors rose, pulling the index up, while popular themes declined, and trading volume increased, showing a somewhat stagnant upward trend. The base for the broader market is around the 20 - day moving average or 4050. During the earnings report period, cyclical growth stocks with good earnings performance are more stable [2][3]. - The Securities Daily's call to "reject theme speculation and strengthen the rational foundation of the capital market" reflects the management's policy orientation towards a slow - bull market. With the approaching of the pre - Spring Festival trading period, the cooling of leveraged funds is inevitable [3]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Important Information - Trump raised the reciprocal tariff rate on South Korea from 15% to 25% due to the South Korean Congress's non - approval of the bilateral trade agreement [5]. - US media reported that Trump thought Iran hoped to reach an agreement [6]. - The probability of a US government shutdown before the end of January is about 80% [7]. - NVIDIA deepened its cooperation with CoreWeave, adding a $2 billion investment [8]. - The EU will fully ban the import of Russian liquefied natural gas in January 2027 and Russian pipeline gas by the end of September 2027 [8]. - The People's Bank of China held the 2026 macro - prudential work meeting to proactively assess systemic financial risks and innovate policy tools to maintain financial market stability [8]. - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs reminded Chinese citizens to avoid traveling to Japan during the Spring Festival [9]. - The Hong Kong Treasury Bureau signed a cooperation agreement with the Shanghai Gold Exchange, aiming to exceed 2000 tons in three years to make Hong Kong a globally trusted gold storage location [9]. - Policies to foster new growth points in service consumption will be introduced soon [10]. - Zijin Mining plans to acquire 100% of Allied Gold Corporation for 28 billion yuan [11]. Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Market Performance**: The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index rose 0.57%, with its futures contracts IH2602, IH2603, IH2606, and IH2609 up 0.69%, 0.67%, 0.76%, and 0.78% respectively. The CSI 300 Index increased 0.10%, and its futures contracts IF2602, IF2603, IF2606, and IF2609 rose 0.21%, 0.22%, 0.30%, and 0.14% respectively. The CSI 500 Index fell 0.97%, and its futures contracts IC2602, IC2603, IC2606, and IC2609 dropped 1.98%, 2.17%, 2.42%, and 2.72% respectively. The CSI 1000 Index declined 1.24%, and its futures contracts IM2602, IM2603, IM2606, and IM2609 decreased 2.40%, 2.67%, 2.68%, and 2.91% respectively [13]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The total trading volume of futures was 778,013 lots, an increase of 176,215 lots. The total open interest was 39,867 lots, a decrease of 16,877 lots [14]. Spot Market Tracking - **Spot Market Performance**: The Wind All - A Index fell 0.68%, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index declined 0.85%, and the ChiNext Index decreased 0.91%. Among sectors, non - ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery led the gains, while military industry, automobiles, social services, and electronics led the losses [35]. - **Influence of Market Styles on Indexes**: For the SSE 50 Index, the cyclical style contributed positively, while the growth and consumer styles contributed negatively on the day. For the CSI 300 Index, the cyclical and financial styles contributed positively, while the growth and consumer styles contributed negatively. For the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 Indexes, most styles contributed negatively on the day [36][37]. - **Valuation and Other Indicators**: The report presents the valuation and historical quantiles of important indexes and Shenwan sectors, as well as data on market weekly average trading volume, weekly average turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks, index trading volume changes, stock - bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balance, and margin trading net purchase amount and its proportion in A - share trading volume [38][44]. Liquidity Tracking - The report shows the central bank's open - market operations (including money injection, money withdrawal, and net money injection) and the Shibor interest rate level [50][51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a fluctuating trend, with an increase in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index has a slight decline, and the supply of copper ore remains tight. The port inventory has slightly rebounded with the arrival of imports, but it is still at a relatively low level historically. On the supply side, although the raw material supply is tight, domestic copper production remains at a relatively high level due to seasonal factors, with a relatively sufficient supply. On the demand side, some downstream buyers adopt a strategy of purchasing for rigid needs and stocking up at low prices, but the high copper price and the traditional off - season limit the demand, resulting in average trading sentiment in the spot market. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of sufficient supply and stable demand, with seasonal inventory accumulation. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.71, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1442, indicating a bullish sentiment, and the implied volatility has a slight increase. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are above the 0 - axis and the green bars are converging. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades with a light position at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 102,600 yuan/ton, up 720 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 13,073 dollars/ton, down 126 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 280 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 229,757 lots, up 778 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 69,801 lots, down 8,825 lots. The LME copper inventory is 170,525 tons, down 1,175 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 225,937 tons, up 12,422 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 44,725 tons, down 1,550 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 144,908 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 101,370 yuan/ton, down 1,065 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market 1 copper spot is 101,580 yuan/ton, down 820 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 23 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 22 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is - 1,230 yuan/ton, down 1,785 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 71.07 dollars/ton, down 5.01 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons, up 17.8 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 49.79 dollars/kiloton, down 3.26 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 92,710 yuan/metal ton, up 1,460 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 93,410 yuan/metal ton, up 1,460 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the South is 2,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the North is 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 132.6 million tons, up 9 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 69,590 yuan/ton, up 1,250 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 83,950 yuan/ton, up 1,250 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.91 million tons, up 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 560.39 billion yuan, up 77.956 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 8278.814 billion yuan, up 41.9724 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345,500 pieces, up 415,345,500 pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 25.85%, down 1.31%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 23.38%, up 0.01%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month is 27.02%, up 0.0116; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.71, up 0.1442 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of the end of 2025, the national new energy vehicle ownership reached 43.97 million, accounting for 12.01% of the total vehicle ownership; the pure - electric vehicle ownership was 30.22 million, accounting for 68.74% of the new energy vehicle ownership. In 2025, the newly registered new energy vehicles were 12.93 million, accounting for 49.38% of the newly registered vehicles, an increase of 1.68 million or 14.93% compared with 2024. Policies to cultivate new growth points in service consumption will be introduced soon, including measures to expand inbound consumption, the launch of a national digital trade demonstration zone, optimization of the old - for - new program for consumer goods, promotion of consumption of large - ticket durable goods such as cars and home appliances, a pilot reform of car circulation consumption, and the upcoming launch of a national - level overseas comprehensive service platform. The exchange has taken measures to cool down the commodity futures market. The Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai International Energy Exchange have adjusted trading limits and margin ratios for some futures contracts. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has also issued a risk reminder letter. The People's Bank of China has emphasized expanding the scope of macro - prudential policies. The US has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Canadian imports if Canada reaches a new trade agreement with China, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry has responded [2].

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题报告 2026 年 01 月 27 日 把握金融周期的波动 ——构建招商中国金融条件指数 ❑ 风险提示：国内、国际金融环境结构性变化。 谢亚轩 S1090511030010 xieyx@cmschina.com.cn 刘亚欣 S1090516100001 liuyaxin@cmschina.com.cn （霍卓翔博士对报告做出重要贡献。） 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 专题报告 | 一、 关于金融条件指数（FCI） 4 | | --- | | 二、 金融周期的观念有助于更深刻理解经济现实 5 | | 三、 监测金融条件指数旨在把握金融周期波动 7 | | 四、 编制招商中国金融条件指数 9 | | 五、 招商中国金融条件指数的两个特色 11 | | 图 | 1：国际清算银行金融条件指数分项走势 | 7 | | --- | --- | --- | | 图 | 2：2008 年以来招商中国金融条件指数变化 | 10 | | 图 | 3：招商中国金融条件指数与其他主流指数对比 | 11 | | 表 | 1：金融条件指数的主要构成因素 | 4 | | 表 | 2：金融周期相关理论 | 5 | | ...