10月30日，伊利股份发布2025年前三季度业绩：1至9月实现营业收入905.64亿元，同比增长1.71%；扣 非归母净利润101.03亿元，同比增长18.73%。 "业绩超预期。"这是公告评论区投资者对企业三季报的主流看法。事实上，受国际国内大环境影响，产 业链上下游经营压力增加，我国奶业已进入深度调整期。在消费复苏不均衡的背景下，伊利的业绩韧性 源自哪里？构建行业"抗周期"能力的良方究竟是什么？带着疑问，上海证券报记者走进了这家行业龙头 企业。 盈利引擎的"质变"与"扩容" 呼和浩特伊利现代智慧健康谷的斑斓秋色中，超高速灌装机正以每小时4万包的速度静谧运转，每秒有 11包鲜奶在数智系统监控下精准灌装下线。 "这一幕高效的生产场景，就是伊利发展速度的生动写照。"伊利集团副总裁韩飞与记者分享他最近的心 得，"'抗周期'核心不是单纯的规模扩张，而是盈利质量与业务结构的双重优化。" 据韩飞介绍，2025年1至9月，公司基石业务液体乳稳居行业第一，实现营收549.39亿元。其中，金典有 机乳铁蛋白牛奶等产品，成为节日礼赠市场爆款。 业务结构的"多点支撑"则让抗周期底气更足。深加工是奶业破解周期性波动难题的有效方式。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid rise and fall of Zhong Xue Gao, once known as the "Hermès of ice cream," highlights the challenges faced by new consumer brands and the ongoing transformation in the industry, emphasizing the need for genuine product value and effective crisis management [3][21][22] Group 1: Company Overview - Zhong Xue Gao was established in 2018 and quickly gained popularity with its unique tile-shaped ice cream and high-end positioning, achieving over 1 billion yuan in revenue in its first year and 1 billion yuan in sales by 2021 [3][4] - The company faced significant challenges starting in 2022, including issues with product quality and employee retention, leading to a decline in consumer trust and market presence [4][5][7] - As of September 18, 2023, Zhong Xue Gao had 26 consumption restriction orders and 72 legal cases against it, with only 2 employees remaining and all 21 branches closed [3][4] Group 2: Market Positioning and Pricing Strategy - The core issue leading to Zhong Xue Gao's decline was a significant disconnect between its pricing strategy and perceived product value, with marketing and logistics costs consuming a large portion of revenue [4][5][6] - The company’s marketing expenses reached 320 million yuan in 2021, resulting in a net profit margin of less than 5%, indicating that the high price point was not sustainable [5][6] - The brand's attempt to position itself as a high-end product without a solid foundation in quality and consumer trust ultimately led to its downfall [6][21] Group 3: Financial and Capital Issues - Zhong Xue Gao's reliance on capital for rapid expansion resulted in a significant debt crisis, with a valuation drop from 4 billion yuan to substantial liabilities [10][12] - The aggressive growth strategy, driven by investor expectations, led to unsustainable operational practices, including a high rate of store openings that did not yield profitable sales [10][11] - By March 2023, the company faced a cash flow crisis, with cash reserves plummeting to 47 million yuan and accounts payable reaching 120 million yuan [11][12] Group 4: Supply Chain and Distribution Challenges - The company invested heavily in its distribution network, including over 50,000 self-owned freezers, but this led to increased channel costs and cash flow pressure [14][15] - The rapid expansion into lower-tier markets without proper market fit resulted in a mismatch between product pricing and consumer expectations, further damaging the brand's image [15][16] - The reliance on third-party logistics and high operational costs contributed to inventory issues, with turnover days exceeding 90 days and significant stockpiling by distributors [15][17] Group 5: Consumer Trust and Brand Management - The decline in consumer trust was exacerbated by negative publicity surrounding product quality, leading to a significant drop in online sales and a backlash from distributors [7][18] - The company's failure to effectively manage its public relations during crises resulted in a loss of brand reputation, with consumers perceiving the brand as arrogant [18][22] - The case of Zhong Xue Gao serves as a cautionary tale for new consumer brands, emphasizing the importance of maintaining product integrity and consumer trust in a competitive market [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - Yili is maintaining a steady upward trajectory amidst industry fluctuations, with significant revenue and profit growth reported in recent financial disclosures [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Yili's revenue reached 115.78 billion yuan, securing its position as the leading dairy company in Asia; net profit, excluding goodwill impairment, was 11.54 billion yuan, marking a 12.2% year-on-year increase [1]. - For Q1 2025, Yili reported revenue of 33.02 billion yuan, a 1.35% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.63 billion yuan, up 24.19% [2]. Operational Efficiency - From 2020 to 2024, Yili's gross margin improved by 377 basis points, with core operating profit margin rising by 205 basis points, averaging an annual increase of 50 basis points [3]. - In 2024, management expense ratio decreased by 23 basis points to 3.86%, while sales expense ratio for Q1 2025 was 16.9%, down 152 basis points [3]. Market Position - Yili's liquid milk revenue in 2024 was 75.00 billion yuan, maintaining its industry leadership, with high-end low-temperature white milk revenue growing over 30% [5]. - The company achieved first place in the ice cream sector with revenue of 8.72 billion yuan in 2024, marking 30 consecutive years of industry leadership [6]. - Yili's milk powder revenue reached 29.68 billion yuan in 2024, a 7.53% increase, solidifying its position as the top seller in China [8]. Strategic Initiatives - Yili is actively pursuing a "dual strategy" focusing on functional nutrition and deep processing of dairy products, including a strategic partnership with Tongrentang [15]. - The company is investing in deep processing projects to enhance domestic production capabilities and reduce reliance on imports [15]. Innovation and Growth - Yili is expanding its product offerings, including new functional products targeting specific consumer needs, such as lactose-free options and health-focused beverages [12]. - The company is leveraging digital technologies to enhance operational efficiency and accelerate product development cycles [17]. Future Outlook - Yili anticipates continued growth in its infant formula segment and aims for double-digit revenue growth in adult milk powder, with liquid milk expected to stabilize or improve [18]. - The company plans to maintain a profit margin target of 9% for 2025 [19]. Shareholder Returns - Yili has committed to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 70%, with a proposed dividend of 7.73 billion yuan for 2024, achieving a historical high of 91.4% [20].