晨 会 纪 要 [2026]第 3 号 主 题：对近期重要经济金融新闻、行业事件、公司公告等进行点评 时 间：2026 年 1 月 7 日 8:50-9:30 会议形式：腾讯会议 参会人员：曹旭特 仇华 许雯 王攀 蒋栋 轩鹏程 文正平 李杰 张智珑 郭怡萍 李育文 李正威 邢维洁 马丽明 汪炜 张弛 聂孟依 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 一、行业与公司 1、商贸零售行业（聂孟依） 元旦消费数据出炉 交通运输部数据显示，元旦假期 3 天，全社会跨区域人员流动量预计约 5.9 亿人次，日 均约 1.98 亿人次。假日期间，滴滴打车需求同比上涨 31%，在"跨年夜"打车高峰时期，平 均每分钟叫车需求突破 18.9 万单。在去哪儿旅行平台，假期热门目的地机票预订量同比增长 20%；元旦假期首日，飞猪国内酒店预订量同比增长 280%。抖音生活服务跨年消费数据显示， 跨城文旅游、冰雪温泉游等全面升温，乐园游玩与陶艺制作销售额同比增长超 100%。据同程 旅行监测，元旦期间国内热门航线前 20 名中，冰雪游航线占比达四成，哈尔滨冰雪大世界、 新疆赛里木湖、云南玉龙雪山等景区热度突出。（来源：新华网） 元旦假期全国跨区域人员流 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" [2][3] Core Insights - The beauty industry has entered a stable growth phase, with increasing consumer demand differentiation and intensified competition, necessitating higher operational standards for brand management [4][65] - Domestic brands, including Lin Qingxuan, have made significant progress in the high-end market, leveraging unique Chinese ingredients to create differentiated products and enhancing brand value through effective channel strategies [4][65] - Lin Qingxuan is positioned as a leading domestic high-end skincare brand, ranking 13th among all high-end skincare brands in China with a market share of 1.4% [5][26] Company Overview - Lin Qingxuan plans to officially list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on December 30, issuing approximately 13.97 million H shares at an offering price of HKD 77.77 per share, aiming to raise around HKD 1.086 billion [4] - The company has established a full industry chain from raw material planting to R&D, production, and sales, focusing on its core product, the Camellia Oil, which has been a market leader for 11 consecutive years [5][6] Financial Performance - In 2024, Lin Qingxuan is projected to achieve revenue of CNY 1.21 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50.27%, and a net profit of CNY 187 million, up 121.06% [15] - The company has maintained rapid revenue growth over the past three years, with a significant increase in profit margins, indicating strong operational efficiency [15][20] Product and Channel Strategy - The core product, Camellia Oil, has seen substantial revenue growth, contributing 46% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, with a remarkable growth rate of 176% [39] - The company has a balanced online and offline channel strategy, with online sales accounting for 65% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 137% growth [18][47] Brand Positioning and Customer Base - Lin Qingxuan has over 5.6 million active customers, with an average annual repurchase rate of 33.5%, indicating strong brand loyalty [30] - The brand is actively expanding its customer base, targeting younger consumers aged 18 to 24 through affordable yet effective skincare solutions [34] Future Growth Plans - The company plans to use the funds raised from the IPO to enhance brand marketing, upgrade supply chain capabilities, and explore overseas markets, aiming for sustainable growth and brand diversification [62][64]

12月，林清轩的上市之路迎来新进展。 继今年5月首次递交招股书失效后，这家以山茶花精华油为核心的品牌，已重新更新IPO申请文件，带 着2025年上半年10.5亿元的营收、98%的同比增速与超38亿元估值，再度向港交所发起冲击。 聚光灯下，创始人孙来春"7次创业7次失败"的逆袭故事、上市前已套现数千万元的资本操作与公司产品 82.4%的超高毛利率、悬殊32倍的营销研发投入比，没有一样不引人注目。 二度IPO的林清轩，能否经受住市场考问？ 林清轩是谁？ 2003年，因代理品牌撤华而决心自控货盘的"70后"东北男人孙来春，在上海创立了林清轩。 此后的九年，林清轩只是个贩卖芦荟胶、手工皂的"小清新"，目标客群是学生党——用孙来春的话 说，"毫无核心竞争力"。 命运的齿轮在2012年福建永安转动，七旬阿婆光滑的肌肤与当地山茶花籽油的使用习惯闯入视野，孙来 春如获至宝。 在一档前央视主持人的访谈节目中，孙来春提到，实验室的化验结果证实了他的猜想：高山红山茶花的 活性成分，正是他苦寻五大洲未得的抗皱密钥。自此他下定决心——"一生all in红山茶花，哪怕付出巨 大的代价"。 图源: 小红 2024年的506家，再到2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid rise and fall of Zhong Xue Gao, once known as the "Hermès of ice cream," highlights the challenges faced by new consumer brands and the ongoing transformation in the industry, emphasizing the need for genuine product value and effective crisis management [3][21][22] Group 1: Company Overview - Zhong Xue Gao was established in 2018 and quickly gained popularity with its unique tile-shaped ice cream and high-end positioning, achieving over 1 billion yuan in revenue in its first year and 1 billion yuan in sales by 2021 [3][4] - The company faced significant challenges starting in 2022, including issues with product quality and employee retention, leading to a decline in consumer trust and market presence [4][5][7] - As of September 18, 2023, Zhong Xue Gao had 26 consumption restriction orders and 72 legal cases against it, with only 2 employees remaining and all 21 branches closed [3][4] Group 2: Market Positioning and Pricing Strategy - The core issue leading to Zhong Xue Gao's decline was a significant disconnect between its pricing strategy and perceived product value, with marketing and logistics costs consuming a large portion of revenue [4][5][6] - The company’s marketing expenses reached 320 million yuan in 2021, resulting in a net profit margin of less than 5%, indicating that the high price point was not sustainable [5][6] - The brand's attempt to position itself as a high-end product without a solid foundation in quality and consumer trust ultimately led to its downfall [6][21] Group 3: Financial and Capital Issues - Zhong Xue Gao's reliance on capital for rapid expansion resulted in a significant debt crisis, with a valuation drop from 4 billion yuan to substantial liabilities [10][12] - The aggressive growth strategy, driven by investor expectations, led to unsustainable operational practices, including a high rate of store openings that did not yield profitable sales [10][11] - By March 2023, the company faced a cash flow crisis, with cash reserves plummeting to 47 million yuan and accounts payable reaching 120 million yuan [11][12] Group 4: Supply Chain and Distribution Challenges - The company invested heavily in its distribution network, including over 50,000 self-owned freezers, but this led to increased channel costs and cash flow pressure [14][15] - The rapid expansion into lower-tier markets without proper market fit resulted in a mismatch between product pricing and consumer expectations, further damaging the brand's image [15][16] - The reliance on third-party logistics and high operational costs contributed to inventory issues, with turnover days exceeding 90 days and significant stockpiling by distributors [15][17] Group 5: Consumer Trust and Brand Management - The decline in consumer trust was exacerbated by negative publicity surrounding product quality, leading to a significant drop in online sales and a backlash from distributors [7][18] - The company's failure to effectively manage its public relations during crises resulted in a loss of brand reputation, with consumers perceiving the brand as arrogant [18][22] - The case of Zhong Xue Gao serves as a cautionary tale for new consumer brands, emphasizing the importance of maintaining product integrity and consumer trust in a competitive market [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the profit forecast for Maogeping (01318) for 2025-2026, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E of 41/31x for those years, and a target price of HKD 127, indicating a potential upside of 22.5% [1] Group 1: Product Development - The skincare product matrix continues to expand, with positive market feedback on new perfume products [2] - In skincare, the company is launching a series of products targeting anti-aging issues, including the "Fire Source" series and the black gold series [2] - In color cosmetics, new products such as the "Starry Sky" eyeshadow and earth-tone eyeshadows have been introduced [2] - The perfume segment saw the launch of 13 new products in May, which remain in high demand [2] Group 2: Channel Expansion - The company is strengthening its brand presence by entering high-end retail locations, with significant same-store growth outperforming the market [3] - Offline, the company has opened new counters in prestigious locations, with a same-store growth of approximately 18% in the first half of 2025 [3] - Online, the company has successfully engaged younger demographics, with a combined GMV growth of 47% on Tmall and Douyin from July to August [3] Group 3: International Expansion - The company is expanding its brand internationally, having entered Sephora in Hong Kong and planning to open its first counter in Harbour City, Hong Kong in October [4] - The company aims to expand into Southeast Asia, Japan, and Europe starting in 2026, indicating strong growth potential as a rare high-end domestic beauty brand [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company demonstrates strong growth resilience with robust performance in key metrics, as indicated by its revenue and profit forecasts for the first half of 2025, reflecting a solid position in the high-end domestic cosmetics market [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve revenue of 2.57 billion to 2.60 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.4% to 31.9% [1]. - The projected net profit for the same period is between 665 million to 675 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 35.0% to 37.0% [1]. - Both revenue and profit growth rates are expected to remain above 30%, confirming the profitability resilience of the high-end domestic cosmetics group [1]. Group 2: Product Innovation and Channel Optimization - The company continues to innovate with a focus on Eastern aesthetics, launching the "Wen Dao Dong Fang" perfume series in April, which received positive market feedback and ranked in the top 20 on major e-commerce platforms [2]. - The new earth-toned eyeshadow product, inspired by natural rock formations, enhances product competitiveness and expands the high-end product line [2]. - Online and offline channels are being optimized, with significant performance during promotional events, such as ranking second and third in the color cosmetics category on Douyin and Tmall during the 618 shopping festival, with GMV growth exceeding 70% [2]. Group 3: Market Position and Growth Logic - The company holds a strong position in the high-end cosmetics sector, with 11 domestic brands in the top 20 color cosmetics list, and it ranks second overall with a transaction volume of 1.2 billion yuan, growing over 30% [2]. - The brand's unique positioning, product innovation, and channel experience upgrades contribute to a clear long-term growth trajectory [3]. - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 1.184 billion, 1.542 billion, and 1.953 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 38, 29, and 23 times [3].

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of the company, with expected revenue of 2.57 billion to 2.60 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.4% to 31.9%. Net profit is projected to be between 665 million to 675 million yuan, with a growth of 35.0% to 37.0% [3][9] - The company is leveraging product innovation and channel optimization to enhance brand vitality. Notable product launches include the "Wen Dao Dong Fang" perfume series and the new earth eyeshadow product, which have received positive market feedback and contributed to sales growth [4][9] - The company has established a strong position in the high-end domestic cosmetics market, ranking second overall and first among domestic brands in the top 20 cosmetics list, with a transaction volume of 1.2 billion yuan and a growth rate exceeding 30% [5][9] Product Innovation and Channel Strategy - The company focuses on product innovation centered around Eastern aesthetics, with successful launches such as the "Wen Dao Dong Fang" perfume series, which achieved a monthly sales volume of 1,682 units at an average price of 670.24 yuan [4][9] - The company has effectively integrated online and offline channels, achieving significant sales during promotional events, with a GMV growth of over 70% during the 618 shopping festival [4][9] Industry Positioning and Growth Potential - The company is well-positioned in the mid-to-high-end cosmetics segment, benefiting from a unique brand identity and strong market recognition. The long-term growth outlook remains positive, with projected net profits of 1.184 billion, 1.542 billion, and 1.953 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, reflecting growth rates of 34%, 30%, and 27% respectively [5][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the next six months [4][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of approximately 25.7 to 26.0 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.4% to 31.9%. The net profit is projected to be between 6.65 billion and 6.75 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 35.0% to 37.0% [4][5]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the high-end domestic cosmetics market, demonstrating strong resilience in profitability and growth potential [4][5]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 2,886 million RMB - 2024: 3,885 million RMB - 2025E: 5,173 million RMB - 2026E: 6,852 million RMB - 2027E: 8,533 million RMB - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 58% for 2023, 35% for 2024, and gradually decreasing to 25% by 2027 [4][5]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 662 million RMB - 2024: 881 million RMB - 2025E: 1,184 million RMB - 2026E: 1,542 million RMB - 2027E: 1,953 million RMB - The net profit growth rates are expected to be 88% for 2023, 33% for 2024, and stabilizing around 27% by 2027 [4][5]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has established a strong market position, ranking second among all brands and first among domestic brands in the top 20 cosmetics list for the first half of 2025, achieving a transaction volume of 12 billion RMB with a growth rate exceeding 30% [4][5]. - The company’s unique positioning in the high-end market, combined with product innovation and channel optimization, enhances its competitive edge and long-term growth potential [4][5].

Core Insights - The ice cream brand Zhong Xue Gao's parent company has filed for bankruptcy due to inability to repay debts and insufficient assets, marking a significant decline from its peak sales of over 1 billion yuan [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the current Chinese consumer market has shifted towards rational consumption, making it difficult for mass consumer goods to command premium pricing without tangible quality differences [2][5] Company Analysis - Zhong Xue Gao was launched in 2018 as a "high-end Chinese ice cream" brand, achieving sales of over 1 billion yuan in 2021, but faced a dramatic decline in sales due to food safety controversies in 2022 [1][2] - The brand's strategy of high pricing (60 yuan) compared to competitors like Haagen-Dazs lacked perceived quality differentiation, leading to a loss of core customers when it introduced a lower-priced product [2][4] - The reliance on financing for market expansion has proven risky, as the market has shifted towards valuing cash flow and profitability over growth through external funding [2][5] Industry Trends - Many popular brands are experiencing similar declines, indicating a broader trend in the industry where high pricing strategies without substantial value propositions are failing [2][3] - Common marketing strategies among these brands include high pricing supported by cultural narratives, immersive experiences, and social media-driven marketing [3][4] - The lack of innovation beyond packaging and marketing, coupled with frequent quality control issues, has led to a loss of consumer trust [4][5] Recommendations for Future Brands - Successful brands must focus on four foundational elements: complete supply chain integrity, consistent high-quality output, strict food safety controls, and an evolving service system to enhance customer loyalty [5] - New consumer brands should learn from both successful and failed cases in the market, shift from reliance on financing to operational cash flow, and prioritize supply chain management over marketing hype [5]

Core Viewpoint - The bankruptcy of the ice cream brand Zhong Xuegao highlights the challenges faced by new consumer brands in China, as they struggle to maintain high pricing strategies in a market that has become more rational and price-sensitive [1][2]. Group 1: Company Analysis - Zhong Xuegao's parent company, Zhong Xuegao Food (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., has been unable to repay its debts and has been forced into bankruptcy due to insufficient assets [1]. - The brand initially gained popularity with its high-priced ice cream, such as the 66 yuan "Ecuadorian Pink Diamond," achieving sales exceeding 1 billion yuan in 2021, but faced a dramatic decline in sales following controversies and a shift in consumer sentiment [1][2]. - The introduction of a lower-priced product at 3.5 yuan was an attempt to recover, but it led to further issues such as unpaid wages and product shortages [1]. Group 2: Industry Trends - Analysts indicate that the new consumer brands are facing difficulties due to a misunderstanding of the "high-end domestic product" concept, which should leverage supply chain efficiencies to offer competitive pricing rather than relying solely on high price points [2][3]. - The decline of Zhong Xuegao reflects a broader trend among new consumer brands that have relied heavily on financing to expand market share, which is no longer sustainable in a market that prioritizes cash flow and profitability [2][3]. Group 3: Marketing Strategies - New consumer brands, including Zhong Xuegao, have employed various marketing strategies such as high-frequency collaborations and limited edition releases to create social media buzz, but these strategies often lack genuine brand value [4][5]. - Common marketing traits among these brands include targeting high premiums supported by cultural narratives, creating immersive experiences, and leveraging social media for viral marketing [5]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Quality Issues - Many brands have faced quality control issues due to reliance on outsourcing and inadequate supply chain management, which can lead to consumer distrust and negative brand perception [6]. - The failure to establish a strong supply chain can result in significant risks, as seen with Zhong Xuegao's misleading marketing claims regarding product quality [6]. Group 5: Recommendations for Future Success - To survive in the evolving market, new consumer brands must focus on building a complete supply chain, ensuring high-quality output, maintaining strict food safety standards, and enhancing customer service and loyalty [6][7]. - Brands should shift from a reliance on financing to developing their own cash flow capabilities and prioritize genuine consumer engagement over superficial marketing tactics [7].