申银万国期货研究所 戴鸿绪 （从业编号F03153282 交易咨询号Z0023729） 评 论 及 策 略 生猪市场呈现期现联袂回落的走势，主力合约LH2605收跌0.69%。现货层面，全国外三元生猪 出栏均价也小幅下滑。主要由于小年临近，养殖户销售窗口期日益收窄，导致压栏情绪松 动，市场供应压力陡增。下游屠宰企业开工率有所提升，但仍难以消化供应压力，导致成交 价格承压下行。综合来看，市场短期内呈现"供需双增，但供给压力更为突出"的博弈格局 。预计猪价可能以弱势稳定为主，后续行情的关键，需要密切关注养殖端的出栏情绪是否延 续以及屠宰企业开工率能否有更强劲的表现。 免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相 ...

生猪产业日报 2026-02-03 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 11160 | -60 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 92241 | -3709 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 100 | 100 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -49770 | -5105 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 12800 | 200 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 1250 ...

Core Viewpoint - The national pig market is experiencing a weak and fluctuating trend, with regional price disparities and a general decline in prices observed recently [2][17][19]. Price Dynamics - The average national pig price has decreased to approximately 6.55 yuan per jin (about 13.10 yuan per kilogram), reflecting a slight drop of 0.03 yuan per jin compared to the previous day [2][4][19]. - Northern regions are seeing a price decline due to increased market supply following the end of snow, while southern markets remain relatively stable [5][20]. - In the Northeast, pig prices are weak, with mainstream prices ranging from 6.3 to 6.45 yuan per jin, while Hebei's prices are stable at 6.5 to 6.7 yuan per jin [6][21][22]. - The southern market, particularly in Guangdong, maintains the highest price at 7.2 yuan per jin [8][23]. Supply Side Analysis - The supply side is characterized by ample stock but slow short-term outflow, with a total pig stock of 36.92 million heads as of December 2025, showing a slight decrease of 0.23% month-on-month but a year-on-year increase of 5.69% [9][24]. - As of January 20, the overall slaughter progress of sample enterprises is only 64.94%, with significant regional differences, particularly in Jiangsu, where some farms are slowing down their slaughter pace [10][25]. Demand Side Changes and Slaughter Challenges - The pork consumption is entering a seasonal peak, but demand is complex, with northern regions experiencing low slaughter volumes due to previous snowfall [12][26]. - Southern consumption is weakening due to population return trends, leading to a decrease in sales concentration [12][26]. - Slaughter enterprises are facing operational pressures, with some reporting losses of 50-60 yuan per head, which is suppressing their operational capacity [12][26]. Future Market Outlook and Recommendations - With three weeks remaining until the Spring Festival, the market is entering a critical pre-holiday negotiation period [27]. - Short-term expectations suggest that pig prices may experience wide fluctuations and slight declines before the festival, with potential price increases around key dates like the Laba Festival [28]. - Mid-term projections indicate that the pig market will remain under pressure until a thorough capacity clearance occurs, with high supply levels expected to persist into the first half of 2026 [28]. - Notably, the price of weaned piglets has risen for three consecutive weeks, reaching an average of 253.33 yuan per head, indicating a potential positive market outlook [28].

Group 1 - The main contract for live pig futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 12,085.00 yuan, and closed at 12,010.00 yuan with a rise of 1.82% [1] - Overall, the market sentiment remains bearish despite the recent rebound, as demand for large pigs has weakened post-New Year, leading to a contraction in price differentials [2] - The market is expected to show a steady yet strong trend, with supply-side participants maintaining a cautious approach and demand from slaughterhouses not meeting expectations [3] Group 2 - The price of live pigs is anticipated to fluctuate within the range of 11,700 to 11,900 yuan, with regional price variations observed across different areas [3] - The overall market dynamics indicate a continued struggle between supply and demand, with the potential for price adjustments based on the outflow of large pigs and the reduction of breeding sows [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand game in the pig market continues, and after a phased rebound, pig prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust. The corn market price is also in a state of oscillating adjustment, and the disk should maintain a short - term trading mindset [5][8] 3. Summary by Category Pig Market - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Last week, the pig futures rose first and then fell. The LH2603 contract closed at 11,770 yuan/ton, a 0.04% decrease from the previous week's settlement price. The national average price of live pigs of the outer ternary breed was 12.45 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.21 yuan/ton [5] - **Profit Situation**: As of January 9, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was - 11.54 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 23.05 yuan/head; the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was - 2.31 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 46.04 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 5.46, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 [5] - **Regional Market Performance**: The northern region saw a slowdown in the slaughter rhythm of enterprises at the beginning of the month, and leading group farms reduced supply and held prices, resulting in relatively strong pig prices. In the southern region, market supply did not decrease, and after the festival effect faded, demand support was weak, so pig prices were adjusted slightly downward [5] - **Supply and Demand Outlook**: Currently, there is no significant change in the supply side. Farmers' willingness to hold prices is strong, and local second - fattening is relatively active, reducing the supply of market - ready pigs. On the demand side, with the drop in temperature, terminal consumption has certain positive support. However, as the supply - demand pattern gradually turns to a looser state, pig prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust after a phased rebound [5] Corn Market - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Last week, corn futures fluctuated strongly. The C2603 contract closed at 2,263 yuan/ton, a 1.53% increase from the previous week's settlement price. The national average spot price of corn was 2,351.86 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.22 yuan/ton. Port prices generally showed an upward trend [6] - **Deep - processing Consumption**: From January 1 to January 7, 2026, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises across the country consumed a total of 1.3817 million tons of corn, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0011 million tons. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises was 0.6279 million tons, a decrease of 0.0032 million tons from the previous week. The weekly national corn starch output was 0.3248 million tons, a decrease of 0.0027 million tons from the previous week, and the weekly operating rate was 59.37%, a decrease of 0.49% from the previous week. The operating rate of the DDGS industry decreased, and the production volume also decreased [7] - **Inventory Situation**: As of January 7, 2026, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 3.54 million tons, with an increase rate of 1.32%. As of January 9, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was about 1.56 million tons, and the corn inventory at Guangdong Port was 0.8 million tons [7] - **Market Performance and Outlook**: The national corn spot market rose first and then fell last week. In the Northeast region, there was still a phenomenon of farmers being reluctant to sell, and due to weather - affected transportation, the supply speed of grain sources slowed down, and market quotes were relatively strong. In the North China region, prices in some areas were adjusted downward. The overall operating rate of the industry declined slightly, and the operating rate of the alcohol industry continued to decline. The selling progress of corn in the Northeast region has exceeded 50%, and due to the expected shortage of high - quality corn supply, farmers' enthusiasm for selling is not high. The selling progress in the North China region is relatively slow, and downstream enterprises are more cautious in purchasing. The market price is oscillating and adjusting, and the disk has rebounded to the upper edge of the oscillation range, so a short - term trading mindset should be maintained [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hog price fluctuated, with the main contract 2601 down 0.76% weekly. The supply is at a relatively high level due to the higher-than-normal inventory of breeding sows in the corresponding cycle and the normal slaughter of large-scale farms. The second-round fattening is cautious, and smallholders are reluctant to sell due to price drops. The demand has improved but with limited growth as it's not yet the peak season for curing bacon. Overall, the price is expected to fluctuate slightly downward under the supply-demand game [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - The hog price fluctuated, and the main contract 2601 dropped 0.76% weekly. The supply is relatively high, the second-round fattening is cautious, smallholders are reluctant to sell, the demand has improved but with limited growth, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly downward [7]. 3.2 Futures Market Situation - The futures price declined this week, with the main contract 2601 down 0.76% weekly [11]. - The net short position in futures increased, and there were 90 futures warrants [13][15]. - The spread between lh2601 and lh2603 contracts was 210, and the spread between lh2601 and lh2605 contracts was -420 [20]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - The basis of the hog 1-month contract was 125 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 3-month contract was 335 yuan/ton this week [25]. - The national average hog price was 11.94 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from last week, and the average price of 15 kg weaned piglets was 23.69 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan/kg [34]. - The national pork market price was 23.17 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous week, and the average price of binary sows was 32.47 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [39]. - The pig-grain ratio was 5.60 as of November 5, up 0.06 from the previous week, but still below 6:1 [43]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - In Q3 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million heads, down 30,000 heads (0.2%) month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year, equivalent to 103.5% of the normal inventory. In October, the inventory of breeding sows in large-scale farms increased 0.12% month-on-month and 0.83% year-on-year, while that in small and medium-sized farms decreased 0.14% month-on-month and increased 0.89% year-on-year [48]. - In Q3 2025, the hog inventory was 436.8 million heads, up 2.9% month-on-month and 2.3% year-on-year. In October, the inventory of commercial hogs in large-scale farms increased 0.10% month-on-month and 5.16% year-on-year, and that in small and medium-sized farms increased 1.84% month-on-month and 6.45% year-on-year [52]. - In October, the slaughter volume of commercial hogs in large-scale farms was 11.4395 million heads, up 11.96% month-on-month and 17.56% year-on-year, and that in small and medium-sized farms was 0.5258 million heads, up 9.48% month-on-month and 27.06% year-on-year. The average slaughter weight of domestic ternary hogs this week was 123.52 kg, up 0.27 kg from last week [57]. 3.5 Industry Situation - As of November 14, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was a loss of 205.64 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 30.1 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of self-reproduced and self-raised hogs was a loss of 114.81 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 25.6 yuan/head [62]. - From January to September 2025, China imported 790,000 tons of pork, with an average monthly import of 87,800 tons. In September, the pork import volume was 80,000 tons, down 20% year-on-year [63][67]. - As of the week of November 14, the price of white-striped chickens was 13.9 yuan/kg, up 0.10 yuan/kg from last week. As of the week of November 13, the average price difference between standard and fattened hogs was -0.7 yuan/kg, widening by 0.01 yuan/kg from last week [72]. - As of November 14, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,124 yuan/ton, up 26.29 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the corn price was 2,270.98 yuan/ton, up 32.45 yuan/ton from the previous week [77]. - As of November 14, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange hog feed cost index was 909.77, and the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.33 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [80]. - As of September 2025, the monthly feed output was 31.287 million tons, up 2.015 million tons month-on-month. In October 2025, the sales of piglet feed increased 0.42% month-on-month and 0.56% year-on-year [84]. - As of October 2025, China's CPI increased 0.2% year-on-year [89]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - In the 46th week, the slaughtering enterprise's开工 rate was 33.90%, up 0.43 percentage points from last week and 4.64 percentage points year-on-year. The fresh sales rate of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 85.51%, down 0.76% from last week, and the frozen product storage rate was 18.32%, up 0.08% from last week [92]. - As of September 2025, the slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises was 35.84 million heads, up 6.99% from the previous month. In October 2025, the national catering revenue was 519.9 billion yuan, up 3.76% year-on-year [97]. 3.7 Hog Stocks - The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd. [101]