热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 北京时间12月26日，现货白银突破75美元，续创历史新高。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：朱赫楠 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：朱赫楠 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 北京时间12月26日，现货白银突破75美元，续创历史新高。 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 12 月 16 日 | 第一部分 | | | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2025/12/16 | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | 7914 | -90 | -1.14% | 58,050 | 13.45% | 31,491 | -1.02% | | PK510 | 8184 | -18 | -0.22% | 116 | 52.63% | 901 | 6.25% | | PK601 | 8048 | -42 | -0.52% | 12,773 | -9.72% | 26,137 | -18.62% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | 现货 | 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生粕 | 日照豆粕 | 花生油 | 日照一级豆油 | | 今日报价 | 7800 | ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The spot price of urea has risen continuously, and the downstream's willingness to purchase is acceptable. The futures price has followed the increase. However, as the price rises and approaches the pressure level, the futures market is expected to experience a correction and fluctuate within a narrow range [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Directory 1. Market Analysis - The futures market opened high and moved strongly throughout the day. The price continued to rise, and the consecutive positive days in the market boosted sentiment. The enthusiasm for fertilizer preparation was good. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1580 - 1610 yuan/ton, rebounding by about 10 yuan/ton, with the highest price in Hebei [1][4] - The daily production of urea is significantly higher than the same period in previous years. Before the seasonal shutdown of gas - based plants, the daily production of upstream plants will remain high. Starting next month, there will be more gas - based plant overhauls [1] - The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants continued to increase. After the production of winter - storage fertilizers, the production load gradually climbed. Although the recent pre - orders were not good, the pending orders were still sufficient, and the operating rate is expected to continue to rise next week. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants increased by 2.45 percentage points this period [1] - Other industrial demands were mainly stable. The operating rate of melamine decreased by 1.4 percentage points this period. High raw material prices restricted the downstream operating rate [1] - Since the recent price increase, the downstream terminal's purchasing speed has increased, and the enthusiasm of agricultural dealers to purchase has significantly increased. Coupled with reserve demand, the inventory has decreased for several consecutive weeks, with a week - on - week decline of 5.1% this week [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1679 yuan/ton, opened high and moved strongly throughout the day, and finally closed at 1677 yuan/ton, forming a negative line with a change of +0.72%. The trading volume was 223,887 lots (-7,026 lots). Among the top 20 positions of the main contract, long positions increased by 232 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,429 lots [2] Spot - The price continued to rise, and the consecutive positive days in the market boosted sentiment. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1580 - 1610 yuan/ton, rebounding by about 10 yuan/ton, with the highest price in Hebei [1][4] Warehouse Receipts - On November 28, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7,587, a week - on - week increase of 406. Among them, Jiashili Jingzhou (Yuntu Holdings UR) decreased by 99, Anzhou Logistics (Sichuan Agricultural Materials UR) increased by 250, Ningling Stanley increased by 105, and Hengshui Cotton and Linen increased by 150 [3] 3. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation and the futures closing price both increased today. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day. The basis of the January contract was - 17 yuan/ton (+1 yuan/ton) [7] Supply Data - On November 28, 2025, the national daily production of urea was 205,900 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 84.85% [9]

Group 1: Market Information - The closing price of the SF main contract was 5526, with a daily change of 26 and a weekly change of -38. The trading volume was 118,520, with a daily change of -33,382, and the open interest was 163,466, with a daily change of -5,461 [3]. - The closing price of the SM main contract was 5794, with a daily change of 22 and a weekly change of -8. The trading volume was 161,410, with a daily change of -56,913, and the open interest was 350,214, with a daily change of -2,225 [3]. - The spot price of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5350, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 30. The spot price of 6517 silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5650, with a daily change of -10 and a weekly change of -30 [3]. - The manganese ore prices in Tianjin were stable, with the Australian lump at 39 (daily change 0, weekly change 0.2), South African semi - carbonate at 34.2 (daily change 0, weekly change 0.2), and Gabon lump at 39.8 (daily change 0, weekly change 0.1) [3]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Trading Strategies - On November 3, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The SF main contract rose 0.47%, and the SM main contract rose 0.38% [5]. - For ferrosilicon, the spot price was stable to weak on the 3rd, with some regions seeing a 20 - yuan/ton decline. Supply remained at a high level, and demand had a downward pressure due to potential environmental restrictions. The strategy was to short on rallies [5]. - For silicomanganese, the manganese ore spot was stable, and the silicomanganese spot price was stable to weak, with some regions seeing a 10 - yuan/ton decline. Supply pressure was high, and demand was affected by low profits and environmental production cuts. The strategy was also to short on rallies [5]. - Unilateral strategy: Short on rallies due to increased steel mill maintenance and high demand pressure; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6]. Group 3: Important Information - In September 2025, South Africa's manganese ore exports were 2,287,959 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. From Q1 to Q3 2025, the total exports were 20,763,797 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.25% [7]. - The final manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone in October 2025 was 50, in line with expectations and the previous value [7]. Group 4: Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5556 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 306 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, the cost was 5659 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 509 yuan/ton [14]. - The production cost of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia was 5809 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 149 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, the cost was 5840 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 250 yuan/ton [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn report lowered the yield, and with the easing of Sino - US relations, US corn rebounded but remained in a narrow - range oscillation due to high production. China has set tariffs on US corn and sorghum, while foreign corn import profits are high. Domestic corn prices are under pressure, with short - term decline potential. Starch prices are mainly affected by corn prices and downstream stocking, and are expected to weaken in the short term [4][7][8]. - It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for 05 and 01 corn, try short - selling 01 starch, and attempt to narrow the spread between 01 corn and starch. For options, a short - term strategy of cumulative put and call options with rolling operations is suggested [9][10][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Market**: On October 27, 2025, most corn and starch futures contracts closed down. For example, C2601 closed at 2112, down 21 (-0.99%); CS2601 closed at 2425, down 16 (-0.66%). Trading volume and open interest also showed different changes [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in some regions declined. For instance, the price in Zhucheng Xingmao dropped 32 yuan, and the basis varied by region. Starch spot prices were stable, and the basis was positive. Price spreads between different contracts also changed [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Corn**: US corn is in a narrow - range oscillation. In China, the northern port flat - hatch price declined, and the northeast and north China corn prices dropped. The wheat - corn price spread widened, and the domestic breeding demand was stable. The short - term corn price has room to fall, and the market is concerned about the selling pressure of Jilin corn at the end of October [4][7]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants increased, and the corn price in Shandong was weak. Starch inventory decreased this week. Starch prices are mainly affected by corn prices and downstream stocking, and are expected to weaken in the short term [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: Wait and see for 05 and 01 corn, try short - selling 01 starch [10]. - **Arbitrage**: Try to narrow the spread between 01 corn and starch [10]. - **Options**: Adopt a short - term strategy of cumulative put and call options with rolling operations [12]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report includes charts showing the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis and price spreads of corn and starch futures contracts, which visually reflect the price trends and relationships of corn and starch [14][16][22].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The US corn report lowered the yield, but the production remains high. The US corn price has declined and may continue to adjust downward. The US corn is expected to trade in a narrow range. China has imposed a 15% tariff on US corn, with a total of 26% tariff within the quota, and a 22% tariff on US sorghum. The import profit of foreign corn is relatively high, with the Brazilian import price in December at 2,136 yuan. The northern port flat - price is stable, and the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is strong. The supply in North China has decreased, and the corn spot price has stabilized and rebounded. The wheat price in North China is strong, and the price difference between wheat and corn has widened. The domestic breeding demand is still weak, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is low. The new - season corn pressure has eased, and the Northeast corn spot price has started to stabilize and rebound, but there may be selling pressure in Jilin in late October [4][7]. - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is weak. The starch spot price in Shandong is around 2,760 yuan, and the Northeast starch spot price is stable. This week, the corn starch inventory has increased to 1.199 million tons, a monthly increase of 5.27% and a year - on - year increase of 46.9%. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is still strong, and the enterprise has made a profit. The 01 starch contract has rebounded with corn, but the North China corn price may still decline by the end of October, and the corn starch spot price will also fall later. It is expected that the 01 starch contract will trade in a narrow range following corn in the short term [8]. - The US corn is expected to rebound, and the yield may continue to be lowered, but with an expected increase in production, it will still trade in a narrow range. The quality of North China corn is poor, and the supply period will be extended. The corn spot price will bottom - out and fluctuate. The large - scale listing of Jilin corn at the end of October may bring short - term pressure relief, and the corn price may rebound in the short term. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn has narrowed. The market is currently trading on the weakening of selling pressure in the Northeast, and the port spot price has stabilized and rebounded. The 01 corn contract is bottom - out and fluctuating, and the corn spot price still has room to fall [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. First Part: Data - **Futures Market**: The C2601 contract rose 0.28% to 2,144 yuan, with a trading volume of 597,677 and a decrease of 11.20%, and an open interest of 849,415 with an increase of 6.13%. The CS2601 contract rose 0.78% to 2,429 yuan, with a trading volume of 144,253 and an increase of 53.93%, and an open interest of 200,536 with an increase of 7.48%. Other contracts also showed different price, volume, and open - interest changes [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: The spot price of corn in Zhucheng Xingmao is 2,340 yuan, and the basis is 53 yuan. The spot price of starch in Jiajie is 2,800 yuan, and the basis is 250 yuan. Different regions have different spot prices and basis values [2]. - **Spreads**: The C01 - C05 spread of corn is - 121 yuan, and the CS01 - CS05 spread of starch is 12 yuan. There are also spreads and their changes in other combinations [2]. 2. Second Part: Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn situation, China's tariff policy, import profit, port and regional spot price trends, wheat - corn price relationship, and breeding demand are factors affecting the corn market. The short - term corn spot price is relatively stable, but there are still uncertainties such as the selling pressure in Jilin at the end of October [4][7]. - **Starch**: The starch price is affected by corn price and downstream stocking. The inventory has increased, and the by - product price is strong. The enterprise has made a profit. The short - term starch price will follow the corn price trend [8]. 3. Third Part: Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term strategy of accumulating puts and calls with rolling operations. Two option contracts, C2605 - P - 2160.DCE and C2601 - P - 2080.DCE, are listed with their corresponding underlying prices, closing prices, and price changes [14]. 4. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - There are six figures in total, including the spot price of corn in various regions, the basis of the corn 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread of corn and corn starch, the basis of the corn starch 01 contract, and the spread of the corn starch 01 contract, which visually show the price trends and relationships of different varieties and contracts [16][18][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn report has lowered the yield per unit, but the production remains at a high level, causing the US corn price to decline. It may continue to be adjusted downward, and the US corn will fluctuate within a narrow range. China has imposed a 15% tariff on US corn, with a total of 26% tariff within the quota, and a 22% tariff on US sorghum. Although the import profit of foreign corn is relatively high, the domestic corn spot price is expected to decline with the upcoming large - scale listing of new - season corn [5][6]. - The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. The current starch price depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. Due to weak demand, starch enterprises will be in a long - term loss state. The 01 starch contract is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data 3.1.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The C2601 contract closed at 2164, up 9 (0.42%), with a trading volume of 151,038 (up 22.66%) and an open interest of 445,010 (up 0.15%); the C2605 contract closed at 2231, up 7 (0.31%), with a trading volume of 11,113 (down 20.49%) and an open interest of 86,022 (down 0.13%); the C2509 contract closed at 2255, up 1 (0.04%), with a trading volume of 232 (down 23.43%) and an open interest of 752 (up 9.94%) [3]. - Corn starch futures: The CS2601 contract closed at 2487, up 12 (0.48%), with a trading volume of 35,769 (up 39.81%) and an open interest of 67,858 (down 0.83%); the CS2605 contract closed at 2574, up 7 (0.27%), with a trading volume of 348 (down 31.32%) and an open interest of 1,383 (down 2.47%); the CS2509 contract closed at 2596, up 11 (0.42%), with a trading volume of 9 (up 800.00%) and an open interest of 8 (up 100.00%) [3]. 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - Corn spot: Today's quotes in different regions are as follows: Qinggang 2250 (up 10), Jiajishenghua 2180 (unchanged), Zhuchengxingmao 2378 (unchanged), Shouguang 2284 (unchanged), Jinzhou Port 2300 (unchanged), Nantong Port 2410 (down 10), and Guangdong Port 2440 (unchanged). The basis varies from - 75 to 185 [3]. - Corn starch spot: Quotes from different manufacturers are as follows: Longfeng 2700, Zhongliang 2700, Jiajia 2800, Yufeng 2990, Jinyumi 2850, Zhuchengxingmao 2940, and Hengren Industry and Trade 2780, all unchanged. The basis ranges from 126 to 416 [3]. 3.1.3 Spreads - Corn inter - delivery spreads: C01 - C05 is - 67 (up 2), C05 - C09 is - 24 (up 6), C09 - C01 is 91 (down 8). - Corn starch inter - delivery spreads: CS01 - CS05 is - 87 (up 5), CS05 - CS09 is - 22 (down 4), CS09 - CS01 is 109 (down 1). - Cross - variety spreads: CS09 - C09 is 341 (up 10), CS01 - C01 is 323 (up 3), CS05 - C05 is 343 (unchanged) [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - Corn: The US corn market is affected by yield and tariff policies. In China, the northern port closing prices are stable, and the northeast and north China corn spots are relatively stable in the short term. However, due to imports, auctions, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new - season corn, the corn spot price is expected to decline. By the end of September, the north China corn price may reach 2200 yuan/ton, and the Heilongjiang price may be below 2100 yuan/ton [5][6]. - Starch: The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is stable. The starch price in Shandong is around 2750 yuan, and the northeast starch spot is weak. This week, the corn starch inventory decreased to 120 million tons, a decrease of 2.6 million tons from last week, with a monthly decrease of 8.95% and a year - on - year increase of 37.5%. The starch price depends on corn price and downstream stocking. In the long - term, due to weak demand, enterprises will be in a loss state. The 01 starch contract is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [7]. 3.3 Corn Options - Option strategy: Use a short - term strategy of accumulating puts and calls, with rolling operations [13]. 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include charts of various prices, basis, and spreads of corn and corn starch, such as the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis and spreads of corn and corn starch futures contracts [15][17][23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn report has lowered the yield, and the US corn has rebounded. It may continue to lower the US corn yield later, with the US corn oscillating at the bottom. China has returned to a 15% tariff on US corn, with a total of 26% tariff within the quota, and a total of 22% tariff on US sorghum. The import profit of foreign corn is relatively high, and the import price from Brazil in December is 2,141 yuan. The flat - warehouse price at northern ports is stable, and the spot price in the northeast corn - producing area is stable. The supply in North China has increased, and the corn spot price has declined. The domestic breeding demand is still weak, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is high. The corn spot price is expected to decline with the large - scale listing of new - season corn. [5][7] - The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is stable. The starch spot price in the northeast is also weak. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is still strong. In the medium - to - long - term, due to weak starch demand, enterprises will be in a long - term loss state. The 01 starch is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures盘面**: For corn futures (C2601, C2605, C2509) and corn starch futures (CS2601, CS2605, CS2509), the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, trading volume change percentages, open interests, and open interest change percentages are presented. For example, C2601 closed at 2,155, down 1 with a decline of 0.05%, and its trading volume decreased by 2.35% [3]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices are provided for different regions such as Qinggang, Jiajishenghua, etc., along with price changes and basis. Starch spot prices are given for enterprises like Longfeng, Zhongliang, etc., along with price changes and basis. For example, the current price of corn in Qinggang is 2,230 yuan with no price change, and the basis is - 26 [3]. - **Price Spreads**: Corn inter - delivery spreads (e.g., C01 - C05), starch inter - delivery spreads (e.g., CS01 - CS05), and cross - variety spreads (e.g., CS09 - C09) are presented, along with their price changes. For example, the C01 - C05 spread is - 70, up 3 [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn situation affects the domestic market. The import profit of foreign corn is high. The spot price in the north is stable, while the supply in North China increases and the price drops. The wheat - corn price difference expands, and wheat continues to substitute. The breeding demand is weak, and the inventory of feed enterprises is high. The corn spot price is expected to decline with the large - scale listing of new - season corn. It is expected that by the end of September, North China corn may reach 2,200 yuan/ton, and Heilongjiang may be below 2,100 yuan/ton [5][7]. - **Starch**: The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants increases, and the corn price is stable. The starch inventory decreases. The starch price depends on corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is strong. In the medium - to - long - term, the starch demand is weak, and enterprises will be in a loss state. The 01 starch is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The US corn has support at 400 cents per bushel. It is advisable to mainly wait and see for 01 corn and try to go long after it stabilizes [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [9]. 3.4 Corn Options - Option strategies suggest that enterprises with spot positions close out their short positions in corn call options, or short - term traders can try to sell on rallies and conduct rolling operations [12]. 3.5 Related Attachments - Multiple figures are provided, including those showing the spot prices of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 01 contracts, the 1 - 5 spreads of corn and corn starch, the basis of corn starch 01 contracts, and the spreads of corn starch 01 contracts [14][15][19]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Peanut Daily Report [2] - Report Date: September 11, 2025 [2][3] - Researcher: Liu Dayong [2] - Researcher's Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03107370 [2] - Researcher's Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0018389 [2] Group 2: Data Futures Disk | Futures | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Increase/Decrease Rate | Open Interest | Increase/Decrease Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PK604 | 7868 | -10 | -0.13% | 18 | 500.00% | 435 | 0.93% | | PK510 | 7894 | 18 | 0.23% | 7,767 | 8.34% | 25,643 | -7.08% | | PK601 | 7824 | -22 | -0.28% | 6,322 | -16.91% | 36,770 | 1.19% | [3] Spot and Basis | Spot | Henan Nanyang | Shandong Jining | Shandong Linyi | Rizhao Peanut Meal | Rizhao Soybean Meal | Peanut Oil | Rizhao First - Grade Soybean Oil | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Today's Quote | 9000 | 8400 | 8400 | 3350 | 2990 | 14780 | 8410 | | Change | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -30 | | Basis | 1106 | 506 | 506 | Soybean Meal - Peanut Meal | 0 | Peanut Oil - Soybean Oil | 6370 | [3] Import Price - Sudanese Rice: 8500 yuan/ton, no change - Senegalese Rice: Information incomplete, 0 change [3] Spread | Peanut Inter - period | Spread | Change | Peanut Inter - period | Spread | Change | Peanut Inter - period | Spread | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PK01 - PK04 | -44 | -12 | PK04 - PK10 | -26 | -28 | PK10 - PK01 | 70 | 40 | [3] Group 3: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China have declined. In the Northeast, Jilin Fuyu 308 common peanuts are 3.9 yuan/jin, stable; Liaoning Changtu is 3.95 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin. In Henan, Baisha common peanuts are 4.3 - 4.4 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin; Shandong Junan is 4.1 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin. Imported Sudanese refined new rice is 8150 yuan/ton, Senegalese oil - used peanuts are 7600 - 7700 yuan/ton, stable. Peanut spot is expected to be relatively weak in the short term [5] - Most peanut oil mills have stopped purchasing. Before stopping, the mainstream transaction price was 7300 - 7900 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills is 8050 yuan/ton. Soybean oil and peanut oil prices are stable, with domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil at 14800 yuan/ton and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil at 16500 yuan/ton [5][8] - By - products: Rizhao soybean meal spot is weak, at 2980 yuan/ton, stable. The unit protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal is high, and peanut meal is weak in the short term, with 48 - protein peanut meal at 3260 yuan/ton [8] Group 4: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Peanut 11 is oscillating at a low level. Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. Those looking to bottom - fish can try Peanut 05 [11] - Monthly Spread: Wait and see [12] - Options: Hold the short position of pk511 - P - 7600 [13] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figure 1: Shandong Peanut Spot Price (yuan/ton) - Figure 2: Peanut Oil Mill Pressing Profit (yuan/ton) - Figure 3: Peanut Oil Price (yuan/ton) - Figure 4: Basis between Peanut Spot and Continuous Contracts (yuan/ton) - Figure 5: Spread between Peanut 10 - 1 Contracts (yuan/ton) - Figure 6: Spread between Peanut 1 - 4 Contracts (yuan/ton) [15][21][24]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea prices opened high and fluctuated upward today. The spot price rose steadily, and influenced by the rising futures, upstream factories had smooth sales and raised their quotes. In the future, the macro - market sentiment will gradually cool down, and the market is expected to return to fundamentals. Under the situation of strong expectations and weak reality, the market will mainly fluctuate. The current export quota remains unchanged, and the follow - up domestic demand should focus on the purchasing progress of compound fertilizer factories. The current rebound is considered short - term [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Shanxi Jinmei Tianyuan started a long - cycle shutdown, and the output has been below 200,000 tons recently. In the summer, the output is expected to decline slightly further. On the demand side, industrial demand is expected to improve, and it is still based on rigid demand in the short term. The top - dressing demand for agricultural corn has ended, and downstream purchases are mainly from the industrial sector. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories continues to rise and is expected to continue to increase this month. After the operating load increases, the demand for urea will increase. The market trading sentiment has improved, and the inventory decline has shown an inflection point, turning to inventory accumulation last week. The rebound today is mainly due to the rising cost - side prices, with coking coal driving up the prices of the coal - chemical industry [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1,736 yuan/ton, fluctuated upward, and finally closed at 1,772 yuan/ton, up 2.67%. The trading volume was 136,100 lots (- 6,142 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, long positions decreased by 959 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,613 lots. Qisheng Futures' net long positions increased by 469 lots, and Yong'an Futures' net long positions decreased by 1,761 lots. Huishang Futures' net short positions increased by 1,184 lots, and Guotai Junan's net short positions decreased by 3,361 lots [2] Spot - Since the weekend, the spot price has been in a downward state. Upstream factories reduced prices to attract orders, and the results were good with an increase in orders received. The ex - factory prices of small - particle urea from urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are mostly in the range of 1,700 - 1,740 yuan/ton [5] Warehouse Receipts - On August 5, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,373, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Fundamental Tracking Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotation was stable and weak, and the futures closing price declined slightly. Based on Shandong, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 8 yuan/ton (- 19 yuan/ton) [9] Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on August 5, 2025, the national daily urea output was 187,600 tons, the same as the previous day, and the operating rate was 79.87% [12]