Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea prices opened high and fluctuated upward today. The spot price rose steadily, and influenced by the rising futures, upstream factories had smooth sales and raised their quotes. In the future, the macro - market sentiment will gradually cool down, and the market is expected to return to fundamentals. Under the situation of strong expectations and weak reality, the market will mainly fluctuate. The current export quota remains unchanged, and the follow - up domestic demand should focus on the purchasing progress of compound fertilizer factories. The current rebound is considered short - term [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Shanxi Jinmei Tianyuan started a long - cycle shutdown, and the output has been below 200,000 tons recently. In the summer, the output is expected to decline slightly further. On the demand side, industrial demand is expected to improve, and it is still based on rigid demand in the short term. The top - dressing demand for agricultural corn has ended, and downstream purchases are mainly from the industrial sector. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories continues to rise and is expected to continue to increase this month. After the operating load increases, the demand for urea will increase. The market trading sentiment has improved, and the inventory decline has shown an inflection point, turning to inventory accumulation last week. The rebound today is mainly due to the rising cost - side prices, with coking coal driving up the prices of the coal - chemical industry [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1,736 yuan/ton, fluctuated upward, and finally closed at 1,772 yuan/ton, up 2.67%. The trading volume was 136,100 lots (- 6,142 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, long positions decreased by 959 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,613 lots. Qisheng Futures' net long positions increased by 469 lots, and Yong'an Futures' net long positions decreased by 1,761 lots. Huishang Futures' net short positions increased by 1,184 lots, and Guotai Junan's net short positions decreased by 3,361 lots [2] Spot - Since the weekend, the spot price has been in a downward state. Upstream factories reduced prices to attract orders, and the results were good with an increase in orders received. The ex - factory prices of small - particle urea from urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are mostly in the range of 1,700 - 1,740 yuan/ton [5] Warehouse Receipts - On August 5, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,373, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Fundamental Tracking Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotation was stable and weak, and the futures closing price declined slightly. Based on Shandong, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 8 yuan/ton (- 19 yuan/ton) [9] Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on August 5, 2025, the national daily urea output was 187,600 tons, the same as the previous day, and the operating rate was 79.87% [12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply of peanuts is still tight, but the downstream demand remains weak, so the peanut prices are relatively weak in the short term [5][10] - Peanut oil prices are stable, and peanut meal has been stable recently. Oil mills' theoretical profit from peanut pressing is acceptable [10] - PK510 peanuts are trading new crops, with many uncertainties such as weather. In the short term, they will fluctuate at the bottom. However, due to the expected increase in planting area and decrease in planting cost, PK510 will still fluctuate within a narrow range [10] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Data - **Futures Market**: PK504 closed at 7972, up 26 (0.33%), with a trading volume increase of 200.00% and an open interest increase of 1.43%; PK510 closed at 8188, up 12 (0.15%), with a trading volume decrease of 46.04% and an open interest decrease of 3.44%; PK601 closed at 7970, up 10 (0.13%), with a trading volume decrease of 46.54% and an open interest increase of 3.88% [3] - **Spot Market**: The prices of peanuts in Henan and Northeast China declined. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.5 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin from yesterday; the price in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.6 yuan/jin, stable from yesterday. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan was 4.55 - 4.7 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from yesterday; the price in Junan, Shandong was 4.1 yuan/jin, stable from yesterday. The price of imported Sudan refined peanuts was 8250 yuan/ton, stable from yesterday [5] - **By - product Market**: The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal was stable at 2790 yuan/ton. The unit - protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal was relatively high, and peanut meal was weak in the short term, with the 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3200 yuan/ton [8] - **Price Difference**: The PK01 - PK04 spread was - 2, down 16; the PK04 - PK10 spread was - 216, up 14; the PK10 - PK01 spread was 218, up 2 [3] Second Part: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China declined. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.5 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin from yesterday; the price in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.6 yuan/jin, stable from yesterday. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan was 4.55 - 4.7 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from yesterday; the price in Junan, Shandong was 4.1 yuan/jin, stable from yesterday. The price of imported Sudan refined peanuts was 8250 yuan/ton, stable from yesterday [5] - Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing today, with the mainstream transaction price remaining at 7650 - 7700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills at 8220 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil were stable [5] Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Wait and see in the short term as PK510 peanuts fluctuate at high levels [11] - **Spread**: Go for reverse arbitrage when the PK10 - PK01 spread is low [12] - **Options**: Sell pk510 - C - 8800 [13] Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides six figures, including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, peanut oil mill's pressing profit, peanut oil price, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contract, the spread between PK10 and PK01 contracts, and the spread between PK3 and PK10 contracts [16][19][23]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of Document No. 136 and the adjustment of electricity pricing policies in various provinces have led to increased uncertainty in the domestic commercial energy storage market, marking a critical point for the restructuring of business models in the energy storage industry [1][3]. Policy Uncertainty - Economic factors are the primary drivers for commercial energy storage, with the previous business model relying on "peak-valley arbitrage" to profit from price differences [3]. - Despite the national-level direction provided by Document No. 136, local implementation details are lagging, with only Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang issuing provincial-level documents, while other regions are still developing their guidelines [3][4]. - Some regions with significant fluctuations in renewable energy output still maintain mandatory energy storage requirements, complicating the transition to new business models [3][4]. Investment Decision Challenges - The current policy vacuum creates uncertainty for energy storage companies in project decision-making, as investment returns are heavily dependent on future revenue expectations [4]. - Companies are encouraged to explore new profit opportunities through "internal" and "external" circulation models to maximize returns despite reduced price differentials [4]. Industry Transition - The energy storage industry is transitioning from rapid expansion to a focus on high-quality development, with a notable decline in installed capacity for electrochemical energy storage in the first quarter of this year [5]. - The market is shifting from a focus on scale to efficiency and effectiveness, leading to more cautious and rational investment decisions [5]. Market Dynamics - The energy storage sector is experiencing a shakeout, with low-quality capacity expected to be eliminated as the industry matures [6][7]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by chaotic growth, with many companies entering the market with short-term profit motives, leading to unsustainable practices [7]. - The introduction of Document No. 136 has exposed the unsustainable nature of previous low-price competition, accelerating the exit of low-quality players from the market [7]. Future Outlook - The energy storage market is projected to see significant growth, with new installed capacity expected to reach 70 million kilowatts by 2024, representing a 130% increase from the end of 2023 [6]. - The industry is expected to evolve towards a model that emphasizes software and service capabilities, with companies needing to excel in both hardware and software to remain competitive [8][9]. - The demand for energy storage is currently heavily reliant on mandatory storage policies, and the impact of Document No. 136 is anticipated to disrupt market demand, particularly for large-scale storage systems [9][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc., covering market trends, supply - demand relationships, and trading strategies. It emphasizes the impact of factors such as inventory levels, production capacity changes, and macro - economic indicators on metal prices, and offers corresponding trading suggestions for different metals [7][15][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2507 contract closed at 78,640 yuan/ton, up 0.4%, with the Shanghai Copper Index adding 10,391 lots to 535,600 lots. Spot premiums declined due to end - of - quarter inventory clearance and capital needs [2]. - **Important Information**: First Quantum Minerals halted operations at the accident area of the Zambian Trident project. Sentinel Copper's 2025 copper production guidance is 20 - 230,000 tons. Jiangxi Shangxin's 80,000 - ton copper product project is under environmental assessment. A new study shows that Ivanhoe Electric's Santa Cruz copper project could produce 72,000 tons of copper cathode annually in the first 15 years [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: Antofagasta insists on a long - term processing fee of - 15 dollars/ton. LME inventory decreased, and the ratio may decline further. Domestic smelters increased refined copper exports, and the spot premium dropped due to end - of - half - year factors. Copper price upside is limited [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, focus on LME delivery risks. For arbitrage, continue to hold the borrow strategy. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [8][9]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The Alumina 2509 contract fell 4 yuan to 2,903 yuan/ton. Spot prices in various regions declined [11]. - **Important Information**: India's latest alumina deal was 30,000 tons at 366 dollars/ton. Expected end - of - month production capacity may change due to short - term maintenance. Yunnan Aluminum will strengthen bauxite resource acquisition [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: Although the expected production capacity increase may be affected by short - term maintenance, the short - term surplus of bauxite remains. Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate between full cost and cash cost of high - cost production capacity [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [16][17]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract fell 105 yuan/ton to 20,315 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions declined [19]. - **Important Information**: Israel and Iran agreed to a cease - fire. US and Eurozone PMI data were released. China's May photovoltaic new - installed capacity increased significantly. The Tongliao green - power aluminum project entered the core equipment installation stage [20][21]. - **Logic Analysis**: High aluminum prices led to inventory increases. Low inventory and Middle - East situation uncertainties will affect aluminum prices. After the seasonal off - season in August, low - inventory - driven price differentials may expand [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to fluctuate widely. For arbitrage, consider a 9 - 12 positive spread later. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The Casting Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract fell 70 yuan to 19,625 yuan/ton. Spot prices remained stable [27]. - **Important Information**: May automobile production and sales increased, and new - energy vehicle production and sales grew significantly. Guizhou Guangyu plans a 200,000 - ton recycled aluminum project [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic recycled casting aluminum alloy production slightly decreased, and the market lacks continuous driving forces. Prices are expected to fluctuate with aluminum prices [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to fluctuate with aluminum prices. For arbitrage, consider trading when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [30][31]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2508 rose 0.85% to 21,920 yuan/ton. Spot premiums remained stable, but downstream purchasing willingness was low [34]. - **Important Information**: As of June 23, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased. Some zinc smelters in South China were affected by heavy rain [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: Under macro - influence, zinc prices may fluctuate. Domestic zinc consumption is in the off - season, and supply has increased significantly in June. Zinc prices may decline with inventory accumulation [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting in the far - month contracts at high prices. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [37]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2508 rose 0.44% to 16,960 yuan/ton. Spot prices and downstream battery production enterprises' procurement were stable [38]. - **Important Information**: As of June 23, SMM's five - region lead ingot inventory decreased [41]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic primary lead smelter operating rates are high, but lead concentrate imports decreased. Recycled lead smelters are in losses. Supply may tighten, and demand is in the off - season. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider going long in the far - month contracts at low prices. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [43]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2508 fell 420 to 117,630 yuan/ton. Spot premiums of different nickel types changed [45]. - **Important Information**: The wet - process phase III ONC project's tailings pond in Indonesia was completed. LME revised lending rules. Iran and Israel declared a cease - fire [46][47]. - **Logic Analysis**: The easing of the Middle - East situation and weakening demand in June led to a supply - demand imbalance. LME inventory increased, and nickel prices are expected to decline and test the bottom again [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to decline. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, consider selling call options [49][52]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2508 contract fell 35 to 12,440 yuan/ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [54]. - **Important Information**: World stainless steel crude steel production in Q1 2025 increased year - on - year. Qing Shan added a public warehouse in Foshan, and its July high - carbon ferrochrome long - term procurement price was flat [55]. - **Logic Analysis**: US tariffs on steel appliances will affect demand. Supply reduction by Chinese and Indonesian steel mills is insufficient, and inventory is difficult to reduce. Nickel ore prices are firm, but NPI prices are falling [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to continue to decline. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [57][58]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai Tin 2507 contract rose 780 to 263,800 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased, but trading was light [60]. - **Important Information**: Global PMI data were released, and Congo - Kinshasa and Rwanda will sign a peace agreement [62]. - **Logic Analysis**: Shanghai Tin continued to fluctuate within a range. Tin ore supply is currently tight, but the annual supply - demand tightness expectation has eased. Demand is in the off - season [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, pay attention to the tin ore resumption rhythm. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [64][65]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 7,485 yuan/ton, up 1.08%. Spot prices were stable [66][67]. - **Important Information**: May's social electricity consumption data were released [68]. - **Logic Analysis**: Although demand increased in June, production also increased. The supply - demand surplus situation remains. Futures prices rebounded due to market sentiment and downstream procurement. Prices may decline as production increases [71]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting later. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options. For arbitrage, participate in Si2511 and Si2512 reverse spreads [71]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract closed at 31,085 yuan/ton, up 0.48%. Spot prices declined [73]. - **Important Information**: China's new photovoltaic and wind power installed capacities from January to May 2025 increased significantly [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: In June, polysilicon production increased, and inventory decreased. Silicon wafer prices fell, and spot prices are under pressure. The futures market logic has changed, and prices are expected to decline [75]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [78]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose 1,800 to 60,700 yuan/ton. Spot prices of different types of lithium carbonate declined [79]. - **Important Information**: IEA predicted global lithium production. Relevant departments promoted new - energy vehicle safety management and consumption. A lithium - boron mining project in Tibet was approved [80][81]. - **Logic Analysis**: Market rumors and warrant cancellations led to a price rebound. New - energy vehicle sales may be stimulated, but the growth rate may slow down. Lithium salt plants may resume production in July, and inventory is expected to increase [82]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting on rebounds. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options [83].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a peanut daily report dated June 10, 2025, from the Commodity Research Institute's Agricultural Product R & D department [1][2] Group 2: Data Futures Market - PK504 closed at 8090, up 8 (0.10%), with a volume increase of 205.00% to 61 and an open - interest increase of 18.99% to 94 [3] - PK510 closed at 8304, down 6 (-0.07%), with a volume decrease of 37.79% to 43,182 and an open - interest decrease of 1.18% to 138,077 [3] - PK601 closed at 8086, up 10 (0.12%), with a volume decrease of 30.49% to 399 and an open - interest increase of 1.79% to 3,178 [3] Spot Market - Spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 9600, 8600, and 8600 respectively, with no change [3] - Imported Sudanese peanuts were priced at 8300 yuan/ton, with no change [3] - Ratios: The basis for Henan Nanyang was 1296, and for Shandong Jining and Linyi was 296 [3] By - products - Rizhao soybean meal was at 2850 yuan/ton, stable, and peanut meal was at 3250 yuan/ton, with the unit - protein spread between peanut meal and soybean meal being high [3][8] Spreads - PK01 - PK04 spread was - 4, up 2; PK04 - PK10 spread was - 214, up 14; PK10 - PK01 spread was 218, down 16 [3] Group 3: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China were stable. Northeast Jilin Fuyu 308 was 4.8 yuan/jin, Liaoning Changtu was 4.8 yuan/jin, Henan's Baisha was 4.7 - 4.9 yuan/jin, and Shandong Junan was 4.2 yuan/jin [5] - Peanut oil prices were stable, with domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil at 15000 yuan/ton and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil at 17000 yuan/ton [5] - Peanut oil mills' purchase prices were stable, with mainstream prices at 7350 - 7700 yuan/ton and a theoretical breakeven price of 8090 yuan/ton [5] - Short - term peanut prices were expected to be relatively weak due to tight supply and weak downstream demand [5][10] - Peanut 10 was expected to oscillate at a high level due to expected increased planting area, decreased planting cost, and uncertain weather [10] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short Peanut 10 at high levels [11] - Spread: Reverse - spread Peanut 10 - 1 at low levels [12] - Options: Sell pk510 - C - 8800 [13] Group 5: Related Charts - The report includes charts on Shandong peanut spot prices, peanut oil mill profit, peanut oil prices, peanut spot - futures basis, Peanut 10 - 1 spread, and Peanut 3 - 10 spread [16][19][23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the accelerated planting progress of US corn, the price of US corn is oscillating at the bottom, and with the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, the bottom support of US corn is relatively strong. The domestic corn import profit is acceptable, and the import price from Brazil in July is 2052 yuan. The domestic corn spot price in the north is stable, while that in the north - central region is weak. The demand for domestic breeding is still weak, but the supply is low, so the domestic corn spot price is expected to rise in the short term. The market expects a reduction in this year's corn production, a decrease in grain imports, and farmers' reluctance to sell. It is estimated that the short - term support for north - central corn is around 2400 yuan/ton, and around 2150 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang. In the medium - to - long term, policy - related grain auctions are expected in June [5][8]. - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong's deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the price of corn in Shandong is relatively stable. The spot price of corn starch in the northeast is also strong. This week, the inventory of corn starch has slightly increased, with the manufacturer's inventory at 1429000 tons, a monthly increase of 3.03% and a year - on - year increase of 37.4%. In the medium - to - long term, due to the weak demand for starch, enterprises will be in a long - term loss state, and many starch enterprises will shut down, leading to a profit recovery [9]. - In the short term, domestic corn will remain stable, and with the replenishment demand of downstream enterprises after May, corn is expected to strengthen. Corn futures will continue to oscillate narrowly, and the impact of policies will be significant in the later stage [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data - **Futures Market**: Among corn futures contracts, C2601 closed at 2246, down 3 points or 0.13%; C2505 closed at 2260, down 1 point or 0.04%; C2509 closed at 2351, up 4 points or 0.17%. Among corn starch futures contracts, CS2601 closed at 2652, down 2 points or 0.08%; CS2505 closed at 2650, up 7 points or 0.26%; CS2509 closed at 2740, up 2 points or 0.07% [3]. - **Spot and Basis**: The spot price of corn in Qinggang is 2205 yuan, down 5 yuan; the spot price of starch in Longfeng is 2750 yuan, with no change. The basis of corn in Qinggang is - 146, and the basis of starch in Longfeng is 100 [3]. - **Spreads**: For corn inter - delivery spreads, C01 - C05 is - 14, down 2; for starch inter - delivery spreads, CS01 - CS05 is 2, down 9; for cross - variety spreads, CS09 - C09 is 389, down 2 [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Corn**: The planting progress of US corn is accelerating, and the price is oscillating at the bottom. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs provides strong support for the bottom of US corn. The import profit of foreign corn is acceptable. The northern port's flat - hatch price is stable, and the northeast corn spot price has started to stabilize. The supply in the north - central region has decreased, and the corn spot price is weak. The wheat price in the north - central region is stable, and wheat is gradually substituting for corn. The domestic breeding demand is still weak, but the supply is low, so the corn spot price will rise in the short term. It is expected that the short - term support for north - central corn is around 2400 yuan/ton, and around 2150 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang. In the medium - to - long term, policy - related grain auctions are expected in June [5][8]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong's deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the price of corn in Shandong is relatively stable. The spot price of corn starch in the northeast is also strong. This week, the inventory of corn starch has slightly increased. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream replenishment. In the medium - to - long term, due to the weak demand for starch, enterprises will be in a long - term loss state, and many starch enterprises will shut down, leading to a profit recovery. It is estimated that the short - term support for 07 starch futures is around 2650 [9]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: Domestic 07 corn futures will continue to oscillate narrowly, and short - term long positions can be attempted [11]. - **Arbitrage Trading**: Hold a position of buying spot and shorting 07 corn futures. Expand the spread between 09 corn and starch futures when the spread is low, and conduct oscillating operations [14]. 3.4 Corn Options - **Option Strategy**: Enterprises with spot positions can sell corn call options and hold them [15]. 3.5 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include charts of corn spot prices in various regions, corn 09 contract basis, corn 9 - 1 spread, corn starch 9 - 1 spread, corn starch 09 contract basis, and corn starch 09 contract spread, which visually show the price trends and relationships of different contracts and varieties [17][20][22].

Group 1: Report Summary Investment Rating - No report industry investment rating was provided in the content [1][21][35] Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., and provides trading strategies based on market data, industry news, and logical analysis [4][23][37] Section Summaries Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2506 contract closed at 78,100 yuan with a 0.31% increase, and the Shanghai Copper index increased its position by 3,097 lots to 531,000 lots. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [2] - **Important Information**: Ivanhoe Mining suspended the operation of its Kakula underground mine due to earthquake activity [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The mid - year negotiation between Antofagasta and smelters is approaching, and the copper concentrate processing fee is under pressure. The import of recycled copper may increase, but the long - term supply is still tight. The market may show a back structure in the medium term [4] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to temporarily observe for single - sided trading, arbitrage, and options [5][7] Alumina - **Market Review**: The Alumina 2509 contract rose by 98 yuan/ton to 3,246 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3.11%. Spot prices in various regions also increased [9] - **Related Information**: Guinea's Axis mining area had its mining license revoked, and the transition authorities designated multiple mining rights as strategic reserve areas [10][11] - **Logic Analysis**: The Guinea event may reduce the annual surplus of bauxite supply and support the bauxite price. Short - term attention should be paid to the resumption of alumina production capacity [13][14] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that the alumina price will be strongly volatile in the short term. Temporarily observe for arbitrage and options [15][16] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 20,125 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions also changed [18] - **Related Information**: There were news about Sino - US trade, real - estate data, bank interest rates, and Fed officials' statements. Aluminum inventory decreased [19][20] - **Trading Logic**: Fed officials hinted at no interest rate cut before September, and domestic banks lowered deposit rates. Aluminum consumption maintained an upward trend, and low inventory supported the price difference [23] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that the aluminum price will fluctuate. Consider the positive arbitrage opportunity for the 06 - 09 contract and temporarily observe for options [24] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2507 rose by 0.83% to 22,410 yuan/ton. Spot trading was mainly among traders, and the spot premium declined slightly [26] - **Related Information**: The Hong Kong Exchange plans to add three storage facilities in Hong Kong, and the zinc ore tender price in North China increased [27] - **Logic Analysis**: Some smelters resumed production, downstream orders did not improve, and short - term zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [28] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, short positions can be lightly tested at high prices. Temporarily observe for arbitrage and options [29] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2506 rose by 0.45% to 16,900 yuan/ton. Spot trading was mainly for rigid demand, and regional trading was acceptable [30] - **Related Information**: Some recycled lead smelters reduced the purchase price of waste batteries and planned to stop production [31] - **Logic Analysis**: Recycled lead smelters are in a loss state, and the short - term resumption of production willingness is not strong. The demand off - season restricts the upward space of lead prices [32] - **Trading Strategy**: The lead price is expected to fluctuate within a range. Temporarily observe for arbitrage and options [33] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2506 decreased by 60 to 123,280 yuan/ton. Spot premiums changed [34] - **Related Information**: In April 2025, nickel ore imports increased seasonally, and the export of ternary precursors decreased [36] - **Logic Analysis**: LME nickel inventory increased, nickel ore prices supported the nickel price, but the supply surplus is expected to expand after May [37] - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is expected to weaken. Consider the double - selling strategy for options and temporarily observe for arbitrage [38] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2507 rose by 30 to 12,870 yuan/ton. Spot prices were given [39] - **Important Information**: The European stainless steel market is facing challenges, and prices are falling [40] - **Logic Analysis**: In May, steel mills' production decreased, demand was mainly for rigid demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [41] - **Trading Strategy**: The stainless - steel price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. Temporarily observe for arbitrage [43][44] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin closed at 267,730 yuan/ton, with a 1.11% increase. Spot trading was limited [46] - **Related Information**: There was news about the US missile defense system, but it had little impact on the tin market [47] - **Logic Analysis**: Tin prices are in a high - level shock. African tin mines are gradually resuming production, and the supply - demand situation is expected to ease [48] - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price is expected to adjust in the short term. Temporarily observe for options [49][50] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures weakened, and spot prices were generally lowered [52] - **Related Information**: The US launched anti - dumping and anti - subsidy investigations on imported industrial silicon from multiple countries [53] - **Logic Analysis**: Demand is weak, supply will increase, and high inventory suppresses prices [54] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions, sell out - of - the - money call options, and conduct reverse arbitrage for Si2511 and Si2512 [54] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures strengthened, and spot prices were given [55] - **Related Information**: The US electricity consumption is expected to reach a record high, and solar power installation capacity is expected to remain stable [56] - **Logic Analysis**: In May, production decreased, inventory decreased, and the 07 contract is facing a game between fundamentals and delivery contradictions [57][58] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions for the PS2507 contract, sell PS2507 - C - 40000, and temporarily observe for arbitrage [59] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose, and spot prices decreased [60] - **Related Information**: In April 2025, lithium carbonate imports increased significantly [61] - **Logic Analysis**: Some smelters and mines are reducing production, but demand is not optimistic, and inventory is high [62] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds, hold put ratio options, and temporarily observe for arbitrage [63][65][66] Second Part: Non - ferrous Industry Price and Related Data - The report provides daily data tables for various non - ferrous metals, including price, spread, inventory, and profit data, as well as multiple charts showing the historical trends of price, spread, inventory, etc. for each metal [68][79][184]

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of foundational knowledge in investing and selecting the right funds, suggesting that solid basic skills are essential for successful investment in funds [2] Group 2 - Certain bond funds can invest in government bond futures, which are futures contracts based on government bonds, highlighting a diversification opportunity within bond investments [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The U.S. corn market is in a weak oscillation. China has imposed additional tariffs on U.S. corn and sorghum, resulting in low import profits. The domestic corn spot price is expected to rise in the short - term due to factors such as reduced imports, low supply, and potential feed enterprise stocking. The starch market is also relatively strong, but the long - term demand is weak. The report provides trading strategies for both corn and starch [5][8][9] Summary by Directory Data - **Futures Market**: On April 28, 2025, most corn and corn starch futures contracts showed price increases. For example, C2601 closed at 2295, up 13 (0.57%); CS2601 closed at 2718, up 26 (0.96%). The trading volume and open interest of some contracts also had significant changes, such as the trading volume of C2509 increasing by 115.78% [3] - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in northern ports and Northeast China are rising, with the northern port flat - price around 2260 yuan. Starch spot prices are relatively stable, with some regions showing strength. The basis of corn and starch varies by region [3][8][9] - **Spreads**: In the corn and starch markets, different spread values and their changes are presented. For example, the C01 - C05 spread is - 24, down 14; the CS01 - CS05 spread is 29, up 8 [3] Market Judgment - **Corn**: The U.S. corn market is weak. China's tariff policy on U.S. corn affects imports. Domestic corn supply is low, and the demand from the breeding industry is weak. However, due to factors such as reduced imports and potential feed enterprise stocking, the corn spot price is expected to rise in the short - term. The 07 corn contract continues to rise, and the premium of the futures over the spot is expanding [5][8] - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn in Shandong is relatively strong. The starch inventory has decreased this week. The starch price is mainly affected by the corn price and downstream stocking. In the long - term, the demand for starch is weak, and enterprises may be in a loss state. The 07 starch contract continues to rise, and it is expected to be in a strong oscillation in the short - term [9] Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Domestic 07 corn will oscillate narrowly. It is recommended to wait and see, with a short - long idea on pullbacks [11] - **Arbitrage**: Hold the strategy of buying the spot and shorting 07 corn. Expand the spread between 07 corn and starch when it is low, and currently wait and see [13] Corn Options - Option Strategy: Enterprises with spot positions can sell corn call options [15] Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the spot prices of corn in different regions, the basis of corn and starch contracts, and the spreads between different contracts, which visually display the price trends and relationships in the corn and starch markets [17][22][26]