Group 1: Market Information - The closing price of the SF main contract was 5526, with a daily change of 26 and a weekly change of -38. The trading volume was 118,520, with a daily change of -33,382, and the open interest was 163,466, with a daily change of -5,461 [3]. - The closing price of the SM main contract was 5794, with a daily change of 22 and a weekly change of -8. The trading volume was 161,410, with a daily change of -56,913, and the open interest was 350,214, with a daily change of -2,225 [3]. - The spot price of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5350, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 30. The spot price of 6517 silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5650, with a daily change of -10 and a weekly change of -30 [3]. - The manganese ore prices in Tianjin were stable, with the Australian lump at 39 (daily change 0, weekly change 0.2), South African semi - carbonate at 34.2 (daily change 0, weekly change 0.2), and Gabon lump at 39.8 (daily change 0, weekly change 0.1) [3]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Trading Strategies - On November 3, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The SF main contract rose 0.47%, and the SM main contract rose 0.38% [5]. - For ferrosilicon, the spot price was stable to weak on the 3rd, with some regions seeing a 20 - yuan/ton decline. Supply remained at a high level, and demand had a downward pressure due to potential environmental restrictions. The strategy was to short on rallies [5]. - For silicomanganese, the manganese ore spot was stable, and the silicomanganese spot price was stable to weak, with some regions seeing a 10 - yuan/ton decline. Supply pressure was high, and demand was affected by low profits and environmental production cuts. The strategy was also to short on rallies [5]. - Unilateral strategy: Short on rallies due to increased steel mill maintenance and high demand pressure; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6]. Group 3: Important Information - In September 2025, South Africa's manganese ore exports were 2,287,959 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. From Q1 to Q3 2025, the total exports were 20,763,797 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.25% [7]. - The final manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone in October 2025 was 50, in line with expectations and the previous value [7]. Group 4: Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5556 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 306 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, the cost was 5659 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 509 yuan/ton [14]. - The production cost of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia was 5809 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 149 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, the cost was 5840 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 250 yuan/ton [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn report lowered the yield, and with the easing of Sino - US relations, US corn rebounded but remained in a narrow - range oscillation due to high production. China has set tariffs on US corn and sorghum, while foreign corn import profits are high. Domestic corn prices are under pressure, with short - term decline potential. Starch prices are mainly affected by corn prices and downstream stocking, and are expected to weaken in the short term [4][7][8]. - It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for 05 and 01 corn, try short - selling 01 starch, and attempt to narrow the spread between 01 corn and starch. For options, a short - term strategy of cumulative put and call options with rolling operations is suggested [9][10][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Market**: On October 27, 2025, most corn and starch futures contracts closed down. For example, C2601 closed at 2112, down 21 (-0.99%); CS2601 closed at 2425, down 16 (-0.66%). Trading volume and open interest also showed different changes [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in some regions declined. For instance, the price in Zhucheng Xingmao dropped 32 yuan, and the basis varied by region. Starch spot prices were stable, and the basis was positive. Price spreads between different contracts also changed [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Corn**: US corn is in a narrow - range oscillation. In China, the northern port flat - hatch price declined, and the northeast and north China corn prices dropped. The wheat - corn price spread widened, and the domestic breeding demand was stable. The short - term corn price has room to fall, and the market is concerned about the selling pressure of Jilin corn at the end of October [4][7]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants increased, and the corn price in Shandong was weak. Starch inventory decreased this week. Starch prices are mainly affected by corn prices and downstream stocking, and are expected to weaken in the short term [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: Wait and see for 05 and 01 corn, try short - selling 01 starch [10]. - **Arbitrage**: Try to narrow the spread between 01 corn and starch [10]. - **Options**: Adopt a short - term strategy of cumulative put and call options with rolling operations [12]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report includes charts showing the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis and price spreads of corn and starch futures contracts, which visually reflect the price trends and relationships of corn and starch [14][16][22].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The US corn report lowered the yield, but the production remains high. The US corn price has declined and may continue to adjust downward. The US corn is expected to trade in a narrow range. China has imposed a 15% tariff on US corn, with a total of 26% tariff within the quota, and a 22% tariff on US sorghum. The import profit of foreign corn is relatively high, with the Brazilian import price in December at 2,136 yuan. The northern port flat - price is stable, and the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is strong. The supply in North China has decreased, and the corn spot price has stabilized and rebounded. The wheat price in North China is strong, and the price difference between wheat and corn has widened. The domestic breeding demand is still weak, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is low. The new - season corn pressure has eased, and the Northeast corn spot price has started to stabilize and rebound, but there may be selling pressure in Jilin in late October [4][7]. - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is weak. The starch spot price in Shandong is around 2,760 yuan, and the Northeast starch spot price is stable. This week, the corn starch inventory has increased to 1.199 million tons, a monthly increase of 5.27% and a year - on - year increase of 46.9%. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is still strong, and the enterprise has made a profit. The 01 starch contract has rebounded with corn, but the North China corn price may still decline by the end of October, and the corn starch spot price will also fall later. It is expected that the 01 starch contract will trade in a narrow range following corn in the short term [8]. - The US corn is expected to rebound, and the yield may continue to be lowered, but with an expected increase in production, it will still trade in a narrow range. The quality of North China corn is poor, and the supply period will be extended. The corn spot price will bottom - out and fluctuate. The large - scale listing of Jilin corn at the end of October may bring short - term pressure relief, and the corn price may rebound in the short term. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn has narrowed. The market is currently trading on the weakening of selling pressure in the Northeast, and the port spot price has stabilized and rebounded. The 01 corn contract is bottom - out and fluctuating, and the corn spot price still has room to fall [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. First Part: Data - **Futures Market**: The C2601 contract rose 0.28% to 2,144 yuan, with a trading volume of 597,677 and a decrease of 11.20%, and an open interest of 849,415 with an increase of 6.13%. The CS2601 contract rose 0.78% to 2,429 yuan, with a trading volume of 144,253 and an increase of 53.93%, and an open interest of 200,536 with an increase of 7.48%. Other contracts also showed different price, volume, and open - interest changes [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: The spot price of corn in Zhucheng Xingmao is 2,340 yuan, and the basis is 53 yuan. The spot price of starch in Jiajie is 2,800 yuan, and the basis is 250 yuan. Different regions have different spot prices and basis values [2]. - **Spreads**: The C01 - C05 spread of corn is - 121 yuan, and the CS01 - CS05 spread of starch is 12 yuan. There are also spreads and their changes in other combinations [2]. 2. Second Part: Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn situation, China's tariff policy, import profit, port and regional spot price trends, wheat - corn price relationship, and breeding demand are factors affecting the corn market. The short - term corn spot price is relatively stable, but there are still uncertainties such as the selling pressure in Jilin at the end of October [4][7]. - **Starch**: The starch price is affected by corn price and downstream stocking. The inventory has increased, and the by - product price is strong. The enterprise has made a profit. The short - term starch price will follow the corn price trend [8]. 3. Third Part: Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term strategy of accumulating puts and calls with rolling operations. Two option contracts, C2605 - P - 2160.DCE and C2601 - P - 2080.DCE, are listed with their corresponding underlying prices, closing prices, and price changes [14]. 4. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - There are six figures in total, including the spot price of corn in various regions, the basis of the corn 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread of corn and corn starch, the basis of the corn starch 01 contract, and the spread of the corn starch 01 contract, which visually show the price trends and relationships of different varieties and contracts [16][18][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn report has lowered the yield per unit, but the production remains at a high level, causing the US corn price to decline. It may continue to be adjusted downward, and the US corn will fluctuate within a narrow range. China has imposed a 15% tariff on US corn, with a total of 26% tariff within the quota, and a 22% tariff on US sorghum. Although the import profit of foreign corn is relatively high, the domestic corn spot price is expected to decline with the upcoming large - scale listing of new - season corn [5][6]. - The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. The current starch price depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. Due to weak demand, starch enterprises will be in a long - term loss state. The 01 starch contract is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data 3.1.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The C2601 contract closed at 2164, up 9 (0.42%), with a trading volume of 151,038 (up 22.66%) and an open interest of 445,010 (up 0.15%); the C2605 contract closed at 2231, up 7 (0.31%), with a trading volume of 11,113 (down 20.49%) and an open interest of 86,022 (down 0.13%); the C2509 contract closed at 2255, up 1 (0.04%), with a trading volume of 232 (down 23.43%) and an open interest of 752 (up 9.94%) [3]. - Corn starch futures: The CS2601 contract closed at 2487, up 12 (0.48%), with a trading volume of 35,769 (up 39.81%) and an open interest of 67,858 (down 0.83%); the CS2605 contract closed at 2574, up 7 (0.27%), with a trading volume of 348 (down 31.32%) and an open interest of 1,383 (down 2.47%); the CS2509 contract closed at 2596, up 11 (0.42%), with a trading volume of 9 (up 800.00%) and an open interest of 8 (up 100.00%) [3]. 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - Corn spot: Today's quotes in different regions are as follows: Qinggang 2250 (up 10), Jiajishenghua 2180 (unchanged), Zhuchengxingmao 2378 (unchanged), Shouguang 2284 (unchanged), Jinzhou Port 2300 (unchanged), Nantong Port 2410 (down 10), and Guangdong Port 2440 (unchanged). The basis varies from - 75 to 185 [3]. - Corn starch spot: Quotes from different manufacturers are as follows: Longfeng 2700, Zhongliang 2700, Jiajia 2800, Yufeng 2990, Jinyumi 2850, Zhuchengxingmao 2940, and Hengren Industry and Trade 2780, all unchanged. The basis ranges from 126 to 416 [3]. 3.1.3 Spreads - Corn inter - delivery spreads: C01 - C05 is - 67 (up 2), C05 - C09 is - 24 (up 6), C09 - C01 is 91 (down 8). - Corn starch inter - delivery spreads: CS01 - CS05 is - 87 (up 5), CS05 - CS09 is - 22 (down 4), CS09 - CS01 is 109 (down 1). - Cross - variety spreads: CS09 - C09 is 341 (up 10), CS01 - C01 is 323 (up 3), CS05 - C05 is 343 (unchanged) [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - Corn: The US corn market is affected by yield and tariff policies. In China, the northern port closing prices are stable, and the northeast and north China corn spots are relatively stable in the short term. However, due to imports, auctions, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new - season corn, the corn spot price is expected to decline. By the end of September, the north China corn price may reach 2200 yuan/ton, and the Heilongjiang price may be below 2100 yuan/ton [5][6]. - Starch: The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is stable. The starch price in Shandong is around 2750 yuan, and the northeast starch spot is weak. This week, the corn starch inventory decreased to 120 million tons, a decrease of 2.6 million tons from last week, with a monthly decrease of 8.95% and a year - on - year increase of 37.5%. The starch price depends on corn price and downstream stocking. In the long - term, due to weak demand, enterprises will be in a loss state. The 01 starch contract is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [7]. 3.3 Corn Options - Option strategy: Use a short - term strategy of accumulating puts and calls, with rolling operations [13]. 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include charts of various prices, basis, and spreads of corn and corn starch, such as the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis and spreads of corn and corn starch futures contracts [15][17][23].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 9 月 16 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/9/16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2155 | -1 | -0.05% | 155,373 | -2.35% | 443,230 | 0.41% | | C2605 | | 2225 | -4 | -0.18% | 16,638 | 43.06% | 84,106 | 1.63% | | C2509 | | 2256 | 1 | 0.04% | 484 | 212.26% | 477 | 358.65% | | CS2601 | | 2467 | -6 | -0.24% | 26,205 | -21.25% | 68,538 | 3.77% | | CS2605 | | 2 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Peanut Daily Report [2] - Report Date: September 11, 2025 [2][3] - Researcher: Liu Dayong [2] - Researcher's Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03107370 [2] - Researcher's Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0018389 [2] Group 2: Data Futures Disk | Futures | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Increase/Decrease Rate | Open Interest | Increase/Decrease Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PK604 | 7868 | -10 | -0.13% | 18 | 500.00% | 435 | 0.93% | | PK510 | 7894 | 18 | 0.23% | 7,767 | 8.34% | 25,643 | -7.08% | | PK601 | 7824 | -22 | -0.28% | 6,322 | -16.91% | 36,770 | 1.19% | [3] Spot and Basis | Spot | Henan Nanyang | Shandong Jining | Shandong Linyi | Rizhao Peanut Meal | Rizhao Soybean Meal | Peanut Oil | Rizhao First - Grade Soybean Oil | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Today's Quote | 9000 | 8400 | 8400 | 3350 | 2990 | 14780 | 8410 | | Change | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -30 | | Basis | 1106 | 506 | 506 | Soybean Meal - Peanut Meal | 0 | Peanut Oil - Soybean Oil | 6370 | [3] Import Price - Sudanese Rice: 8500 yuan/ton, no change - Senegalese Rice: Information incomplete, 0 change [3] Spread | Peanut Inter - period | Spread | Change | Peanut Inter - period | Spread | Change | Peanut Inter - period | Spread | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PK01 - PK04 | -44 | -12 | PK04 - PK10 | -26 | -28 | PK10 - PK01 | 70 | 40 | [3] Group 3: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China have declined. In the Northeast, Jilin Fuyu 308 common peanuts are 3.9 yuan/jin, stable; Liaoning Changtu is 3.95 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin. In Henan, Baisha common peanuts are 4.3 - 4.4 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin; Shandong Junan is 4.1 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin. Imported Sudanese refined new rice is 8150 yuan/ton, Senegalese oil - used peanuts are 7600 - 7700 yuan/ton, stable. Peanut spot is expected to be relatively weak in the short term [5] - Most peanut oil mills have stopped purchasing. Before stopping, the mainstream transaction price was 7300 - 7900 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills is 8050 yuan/ton. Soybean oil and peanut oil prices are stable, with domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil at 14800 yuan/ton and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil at 16500 yuan/ton [5][8] - By - products: Rizhao soybean meal spot is weak, at 2980 yuan/ton, stable. The unit protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal is high, and peanut meal is weak in the short term, with 48 - protein peanut meal at 3260 yuan/ton [8] Group 4: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Peanut 11 is oscillating at a low level. Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. Those looking to bottom - fish can try Peanut 05 [11] - Monthly Spread: Wait and see [12] - Options: Hold the short position of pk511 - P - 7600 [13] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figure 1: Shandong Peanut Spot Price (yuan/ton) - Figure 2: Peanut Oil Mill Pressing Profit (yuan/ton) - Figure 3: Peanut Oil Price (yuan/ton) - Figure 4: Basis between Peanut Spot and Continuous Contracts (yuan/ton) - Figure 5: Spread between Peanut 10 - 1 Contracts (yuan/ton) - Figure 6: Spread between Peanut 1 - 4 Contracts (yuan/ton) [15][21][24]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea prices opened high and fluctuated upward today. The spot price rose steadily, and influenced by the rising futures, upstream factories had smooth sales and raised their quotes. In the future, the macro - market sentiment will gradually cool down, and the market is expected to return to fundamentals. Under the situation of strong expectations and weak reality, the market will mainly fluctuate. The current export quota remains unchanged, and the follow - up domestic demand should focus on the purchasing progress of compound fertilizer factories. The current rebound is considered short - term [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Shanxi Jinmei Tianyuan started a long - cycle shutdown, and the output has been below 200,000 tons recently. In the summer, the output is expected to decline slightly further. On the demand side, industrial demand is expected to improve, and it is still based on rigid demand in the short term. The top - dressing demand for agricultural corn has ended, and downstream purchases are mainly from the industrial sector. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories continues to rise and is expected to continue to increase this month. After the operating load increases, the demand for urea will increase. The market trading sentiment has improved, and the inventory decline has shown an inflection point, turning to inventory accumulation last week. The rebound today is mainly due to the rising cost - side prices, with coking coal driving up the prices of the coal - chemical industry [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1,736 yuan/ton, fluctuated upward, and finally closed at 1,772 yuan/ton, up 2.67%. The trading volume was 136,100 lots (- 6,142 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, long positions decreased by 959 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,613 lots. Qisheng Futures' net long positions increased by 469 lots, and Yong'an Futures' net long positions decreased by 1,761 lots. Huishang Futures' net short positions increased by 1,184 lots, and Guotai Junan's net short positions decreased by 3,361 lots [2] Spot - Since the weekend, the spot price has been in a downward state. Upstream factories reduced prices to attract orders, and the results were good with an increase in orders received. The ex - factory prices of small - particle urea from urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are mostly in the range of 1,700 - 1,740 yuan/ton [5] Warehouse Receipts - On August 5, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,373, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Fundamental Tracking Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotation was stable and weak, and the futures closing price declined slightly. Based on Shandong, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 8 yuan/ton (- 19 yuan/ton) [9] Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on August 5, 2025, the national daily urea output was 187,600 tons, the same as the previous day, and the operating rate was 79.87% [12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply of peanuts is still tight, but the downstream demand remains weak, so the peanut prices are relatively weak in the short term [5][10] - Peanut oil prices are stable, and peanut meal has been stable recently. Oil mills' theoretical profit from peanut pressing is acceptable [10] - PK510 peanuts are trading new crops, with many uncertainties such as weather. In the short term, they will fluctuate at the bottom. However, due to the expected increase in planting area and decrease in planting cost, PK510 will still fluctuate within a narrow range [10] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Data - **Futures Market**: PK504 closed at 7972, up 26 (0.33%), with a trading volume increase of 200.00% and an open interest increase of 1.43%; PK510 closed at 8188, up 12 (0.15%), with a trading volume decrease of 46.04% and an open interest decrease of 3.44%; PK601 closed at 7970, up 10 (0.13%), with a trading volume decrease of 46.54% and an open interest increase of 3.88% [3] - **Spot Market**: The prices of peanuts in Henan and Northeast China declined. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.5 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin from yesterday; the price in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.6 yuan/jin, stable from yesterday. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan was 4.55 - 4.7 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from yesterday; the price in Junan, Shandong was 4.1 yuan/jin, stable from yesterday. The price of imported Sudan refined peanuts was 8250 yuan/ton, stable from yesterday [5] - **By - product Market**: The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal was stable at 2790 yuan/ton. The unit - protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal was relatively high, and peanut meal was weak in the short term, with the 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3200 yuan/ton [8] - **Price Difference**: The PK01 - PK04 spread was - 2, down 16; the PK04 - PK10 spread was - 216, up 14; the PK10 - PK01 spread was 218, up 2 [3] Second Part: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China declined. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.5 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin from yesterday; the price in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.6 yuan/jin, stable from yesterday. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan was 4.55 - 4.7 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from yesterday; the price in Junan, Shandong was 4.1 yuan/jin, stable from yesterday. The price of imported Sudan refined peanuts was 8250 yuan/ton, stable from yesterday [5] - Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing today, with the mainstream transaction price remaining at 7650 - 7700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills at 8220 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil were stable [5] Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Wait and see in the short term as PK510 peanuts fluctuate at high levels [11] - **Spread**: Go for reverse arbitrage when the PK10 - PK01 spread is low [12] - **Options**: Sell pk510 - C - 8800 [13] Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides six figures, including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, peanut oil mill's pressing profit, peanut oil price, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contract, the spread between PK10 and PK01 contracts, and the spread between PK3 and PK10 contracts [16][19][23]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of Document No. 136 and the adjustment of electricity pricing policies in various provinces have led to increased uncertainty in the domestic commercial energy storage market, marking a critical point for the restructuring of business models in the energy storage industry [1][3]. Policy Uncertainty - Economic factors are the primary drivers for commercial energy storage, with the previous business model relying on "peak-valley arbitrage" to profit from price differences [3]. - Despite the national-level direction provided by Document No. 136, local implementation details are lagging, with only Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang issuing provincial-level documents, while other regions are still developing their guidelines [3][4]. - Some regions with significant fluctuations in renewable energy output still maintain mandatory energy storage requirements, complicating the transition to new business models [3][4]. Investment Decision Challenges - The current policy vacuum creates uncertainty for energy storage companies in project decision-making, as investment returns are heavily dependent on future revenue expectations [4]. - Companies are encouraged to explore new profit opportunities through "internal" and "external" circulation models to maximize returns despite reduced price differentials [4]. Industry Transition - The energy storage industry is transitioning from rapid expansion to a focus on high-quality development, with a notable decline in installed capacity for electrochemical energy storage in the first quarter of this year [5]. - The market is shifting from a focus on scale to efficiency and effectiveness, leading to more cautious and rational investment decisions [5]. Market Dynamics - The energy storage sector is experiencing a shakeout, with low-quality capacity expected to be eliminated as the industry matures [6][7]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by chaotic growth, with many companies entering the market with short-term profit motives, leading to unsustainable practices [7]. - The introduction of Document No. 136 has exposed the unsustainable nature of previous low-price competition, accelerating the exit of low-quality players from the market [7]. Future Outlook - The energy storage market is projected to see significant growth, with new installed capacity expected to reach 70 million kilowatts by 2024, representing a 130% increase from the end of 2023 [6]. - The industry is expected to evolve towards a model that emphasizes software and service capabilities, with companies needing to excel in both hardware and software to remain competitive [8][9]. - The demand for energy storage is currently heavily reliant on mandatory storage policies, and the impact of Document No. 136 is anticipated to disrupt market demand, particularly for large-scale storage systems [9][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc., covering market trends, supply - demand relationships, and trading strategies. It emphasizes the impact of factors such as inventory levels, production capacity changes, and macro - economic indicators on metal prices, and offers corresponding trading suggestions for different metals [7][15][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2507 contract closed at 78,640 yuan/ton, up 0.4%, with the Shanghai Copper Index adding 10,391 lots to 535,600 lots. Spot premiums declined due to end - of - quarter inventory clearance and capital needs [2]. - **Important Information**: First Quantum Minerals halted operations at the accident area of the Zambian Trident project. Sentinel Copper's 2025 copper production guidance is 20 - 230,000 tons. Jiangxi Shangxin's 80,000 - ton copper product project is under environmental assessment. A new study shows that Ivanhoe Electric's Santa Cruz copper project could produce 72,000 tons of copper cathode annually in the first 15 years [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: Antofagasta insists on a long - term processing fee of - 15 dollars/ton. LME inventory decreased, and the ratio may decline further. Domestic smelters increased refined copper exports, and the spot premium dropped due to end - of - half - year factors. Copper price upside is limited [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, focus on LME delivery risks. For arbitrage, continue to hold the borrow strategy. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [8][9]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The Alumina 2509 contract fell 4 yuan to 2,903 yuan/ton. Spot prices in various regions declined [11]. - **Important Information**: India's latest alumina deal was 30,000 tons at 366 dollars/ton. Expected end - of - month production capacity may change due to short - term maintenance. Yunnan Aluminum will strengthen bauxite resource acquisition [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: Although the expected production capacity increase may be affected by short - term maintenance, the short - term surplus of bauxite remains. Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate between full cost and cash cost of high - cost production capacity [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [16][17]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract fell 105 yuan/ton to 20,315 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions declined [19]. - **Important Information**: Israel and Iran agreed to a cease - fire. US and Eurozone PMI data were released. China's May photovoltaic new - installed capacity increased significantly. The Tongliao green - power aluminum project entered the core equipment installation stage [20][21]. - **Logic Analysis**: High aluminum prices led to inventory increases. Low inventory and Middle - East situation uncertainties will affect aluminum prices. After the seasonal off - season in August, low - inventory - driven price differentials may expand [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to fluctuate widely. For arbitrage, consider a 9 - 12 positive spread later. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The Casting Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract fell 70 yuan to 19,625 yuan/ton. Spot prices remained stable [27]. - **Important Information**: May automobile production and sales increased, and new - energy vehicle production and sales grew significantly. Guizhou Guangyu plans a 200,000 - ton recycled aluminum project [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic recycled casting aluminum alloy production slightly decreased, and the market lacks continuous driving forces. Prices are expected to fluctuate with aluminum prices [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to fluctuate with aluminum prices. For arbitrage, consider trading when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [30][31]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2508 rose 0.85% to 21,920 yuan/ton. Spot premiums remained stable, but downstream purchasing willingness was low [34]. - **Important Information**: As of June 23, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased. Some zinc smelters in South China were affected by heavy rain [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: Under macro - influence, zinc prices may fluctuate. Domestic zinc consumption is in the off - season, and supply has increased significantly in June. Zinc prices may decline with inventory accumulation [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting in the far - month contracts at high prices. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [37]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2508 rose 0.44% to 16,960 yuan/ton. Spot prices and downstream battery production enterprises' procurement were stable [38]. - **Important Information**: As of June 23, SMM's five - region lead ingot inventory decreased [41]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic primary lead smelter operating rates are high, but lead concentrate imports decreased. Recycled lead smelters are in losses. Supply may tighten, and demand is in the off - season. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider going long in the far - month contracts at low prices. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [43]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2508 fell 420 to 117,630 yuan/ton. Spot premiums of different nickel types changed [45]. - **Important Information**: The wet - process phase III ONC project's tailings pond in Indonesia was completed. LME revised lending rules. Iran and Israel declared a cease - fire [46][47]. - **Logic Analysis**: The easing of the Middle - East situation and weakening demand in June led to a supply - demand imbalance. LME inventory increased, and nickel prices are expected to decline and test the bottom again [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to decline. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, consider selling call options [49][52]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2508 contract fell 35 to 12,440 yuan/ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [54]. - **Important Information**: World stainless steel crude steel production in Q1 2025 increased year - on - year. Qing Shan added a public warehouse in Foshan, and its July high - carbon ferrochrome long - term procurement price was flat [55]. - **Logic Analysis**: US tariffs on steel appliances will affect demand. Supply reduction by Chinese and Indonesian steel mills is insufficient, and inventory is difficult to reduce. Nickel ore prices are firm, but NPI prices are falling [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to continue to decline. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [57][58]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai Tin 2507 contract rose 780 to 263,800 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased, but trading was light [60]. - **Important Information**: Global PMI data were released, and Congo - Kinshasa and Rwanda will sign a peace agreement [62]. - **Logic Analysis**: Shanghai Tin continued to fluctuate within a range. Tin ore supply is currently tight, but the annual supply - demand tightness expectation has eased. Demand is in the off - season [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, pay attention to the tin ore resumption rhythm. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [64][65]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 7,485 yuan/ton, up 1.08%. Spot prices were stable [66][67]. - **Important Information**: May's social electricity consumption data were released [68]. - **Logic Analysis**: Although demand increased in June, production also increased. The supply - demand surplus situation remains. Futures prices rebounded due to market sentiment and downstream procurement. Prices may decline as production increases [71]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting later. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options. For arbitrage, participate in Si2511 and Si2512 reverse spreads [71]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract closed at 31,085 yuan/ton, up 0.48%. Spot prices declined [73]. - **Important Information**: China's new photovoltaic and wind power installed capacities from January to May 2025 increased significantly [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: In June, polysilicon production increased, and inventory decreased. Silicon wafer prices fell, and spot prices are under pressure. The futures market logic has changed, and prices are expected to decline [75]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [78]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose 1,800 to 60,700 yuan/ton. Spot prices of different types of lithium carbonate declined [79]. - **Important Information**: IEA predicted global lithium production. Relevant departments promoted new - energy vehicle safety management and consumption. A lithium - boron mining project in Tibet was approved [80][81]. - **Logic Analysis**: Market rumors and warrant cancellations led to a price rebound. New - energy vehicle sales may be stimulated, but the growth rate may slow down. Lithium salt plants may resume production in July, and inventory is expected to increase [82]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting on rebounds. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options [83].