瑞达期货研究院 目录 「2025.12.31」 生猪市场周报 供应短期缩紧支撑，但利多因素减弱 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z001845 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 联系电话：059586778969 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：生猪价格上涨后调整，主力合约2603合约周度上涨1.29%。 行情展望：月初或有减量操作，叠加肥猪供应偏紧，短期供应压力减轻，不过二育入场趋于谨慎。需 求端，当前处于需求旺季，不过元旦备货结束后，需求从小高峰下降，加之终端消费对价格上涨接受 度有限，屠宰量增幅空间有限。总体来说，节后供应短期缩紧，支撑生猪价格震荡略偏强，但是随着 价格上涨以及元旦备货结束，二育和需求端支撑作用减弱，价格回落风险累加。 「 期货市场情况」 本周期货反弹 图1、大连生猪期货价格走势图 来源：文化财经 瑞达期货研究院 生猪价格上涨后调整，主力合约2603合约周度上涨1.29%。 4 3 5 「 期货市场情况」 本周期货净持仓净空减少，期货仓单1013张 图2、生猪前20名持仓变化 来源：w ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：000876证券简称：新希望公告编号：2025-121 债券代码：127015、127049债券简称：希望转债、希望转2 2025年11月生猪销售情况简报 2、上述数据均未经审计，与定期报告披露的数据之间可能存在差异。因此，上述数据仅作为阶段性数 据，供投资者参考。敬请广大投资者注意投资风险。 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 新希望六和股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）下属子公司从事生猪养殖业务。按照《深圳证券交易所上 市公司自律监管指引第3号一一行业信息披露》规定，深交所鼓励从事畜禽、水产养殖业务的上市公司 每月通过临时公告形式披露相关业务销售情况，公司将参照指引相关规定执行。 一、2025年11月份生猪销售情况 公司2025年11月销售生猪156.75万头，环比变动-6.98%，同比变动24.44%。收入18.12亿元，环比变 动-5.53%，同比变动-11.61%。商品猪销售均价11.54元/公斤，环比变动2.30%，同比变动-30.02%，销售 价格同比降幅较大主要是受国内生猪市 ...

Core Viewpoint - New Hope (000876.SZ) reported significant changes in its pig sales for October 2025, with a notable increase in sales volume but a decline in revenue and average selling price [1] Sales Performance - The company sold 1.6851 million pigs in October 2025, representing a month-on-month increase of 20.86% and a year-on-year increase of 34.44% [1] - The substantial year-on-year growth in sales volume is attributed to a significant increase in the number of new births and the release of piglets [1] Revenue and Pricing - Revenue for October 2025 reached 1.918 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month increase of 9.85% but a year-on-year decrease of 7.83% [1] - The average selling price of commodity pigs was 11.28 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 12.49% and a year-on-year decrease of 35.06% [1] - The significant year-on-year decline in selling price is primarily influenced by changes in the domestic pig market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - New Hope (000876.SZ) reported a significant decline in revenue and average selling price of live pigs, primarily due to changes in the domestic market conditions [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - The company sold 1.3942 million live pigs in September 2025, representing a month-on-month increase of 4.22% and a year-on-year increase of 16.92% [1] - Revenue from sales reached 1.746 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 1.39% but a year-on-year decrease of 23.82% [1] Group 2: Pricing Trends - The average selling price of commodity pigs was 12.89 yuan per kilogram, showing a month-on-month decrease of 4.80% and a year-on-year decrease of 31.47% [1] - The substantial year-on-year decline in selling prices is mainly attributed to fluctuations in the domestic live pig market [1]

Core Viewpoint - New Hope (000876.SZ) reported a significant decline in revenue and average selling price of hogs, primarily due to changes in the domestic hog market conditions [1] Sales Performance - The company sold 1.3942 million hogs in September 2025, representing a month-on-month increase of 4.22% and a year-on-year increase of 16.92% [1] - Revenue for the same period was 1.746 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.39% but a year-on-year decrease of 23.82% [1] Pricing Trends - The average selling price of hogs was 12.89 yuan per kilogram, which reflects a month-on-month decrease of 4.80% and a year-on-year decrease of 31.47% [1] - The substantial year-on-year decline in selling prices is mainly attributed to fluctuations in the domestic hog market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in average selling prices of live pigs in August has led to a decrease in sales revenue for several listed companies in the pig farming sector, indicating a challenging market environment for the industry. Company Summaries - New Hope reported sales of 1.3378 million pigs in August 2025, a month-on-month increase of 2.71% and a year-on-year increase of 4.72%. However, revenue fell to 1.722 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 4.45% and a year-on-year decrease of 30.73%, primarily due to a significant drop in selling prices, which averaged 13.54 yuan/kg, down 6.23% month-on-month and 32.74% year-on-year [1] - Dongrui Co. announced sales of 94,800 pigs in August 2025, with revenue of 160 million yuan, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 5.48%. The average selling price was 15.86 yuan/kg, down 2.02% month-on-month [1] - Wen's Co. reported sales of 3.2457 million pigs in August 2025, generating revenue of 4.825 billion yuan. The average selling price for live pigs was 13.90 yuan/kg, with year-on-year changes of 37.88% in sales volume but a decline of 17.70% in price [2] - Zhenghong Technology sold 16,800 pigs in August 2025, with revenue of 22.8655 million yuan, showing a month-on-month increase in volume of 3.46% but a revenue decrease of 12.12%. Year-on-year, sales volume increased by 63.31% and revenue by 21.14% [3] - Tianyu Bio sold 26,000 pigs in August 2025, with revenue of 29.8423 million yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 50.83% in volume and 41.89% in revenue, but a year-on-year revenue decline of 53.32% [3] Industry Insights - The average price of pork in China's wholesale markets was 19.94 yuan/kg on August 29, 2025, down from 20.10 yuan/kg the previous week, indicating a continuous decline in pig prices for eight consecutive weeks [3] - Guotai Junan Futures noted that the increase in planned slaughter volumes by large groups and limited demand from smallholders has led to a supply pressure that is difficult to alleviate, with daily transactions falling short of expectations [3] - Guoxin Futures projected that the theoretical slaughter volume will continue to increase in September, with a significant rise expected in October, suggesting that supply growth will outpace seasonal consumption increases [4]

Core Viewpoint - New Hope (000876.SZ) reported a decrease in revenue and sales prices for its hog sales in August 2025, primarily due to changes in the domestic hog market conditions [1] Sales Performance - The company sold 1.3378 million hogs in August 2025, representing a month-on-month increase of 2.71% and a year-on-year increase of 4.72% [1] - Revenue from hog sales was 1.722 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month decrease of 4.45% and a year-on-year decrease of 30.73% [1] Pricing Trends - The average selling price of hogs was 13.54 yuan per kilogram, with a month-on-month decrease of 6.23% and a year-on-year decrease of 32.74% [1] - The significant year-on-year decline in selling prices was mainly influenced by fluctuations in the domestic hog market [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of live pigs has declined, with the main contract 2511 falling 2.06% this week. In the near term, supply pressure remains, suppressing pig prices. However, the short - term slaughter rhythm may slow down, the slaughterhouse's operating rate is rising, and the state's purchasing and storage measures boost market sentiment. It is expected that the short - term decline space is limited, and the market will operate weakly in a volatile manner. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage operations [6][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The price of live pigs decreased, and the main contract 2511 dropped 2.06% weekly [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, due to the implementation of transportation policies on September 1 and possible supply reduction at the beginning of the month, the supply pressure is expected to ease briefly next week. But the supply pressure in the near - term remains as September corresponds to the peak of the previous increase cycle of sow inventory. The widening price difference between fat and standard pigs provides conditions for late - stage pig holding and secondary fattening. On the demand side, the pig - grain ratio has triggered a third - level warning, and the state has launched a combination of "new purchasing and storage" and "rotational purchasing and storage" to stabilize the market. With sufficient pig supply, increased demand from schools after the start of the semester, and the continuous rise in the slaughterhouse's operating rate. Overall, the near - term supply pressure persists, but short - term price decline is limited, and the market will operate weakly in a volatile manner [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The futures price declined this week, and the net short position of the top 20 futures decreased. As of August 29, the net short position of the top 20 was 16,076 lots, a decrease of 853 lots from last week, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 430, unchanged from last week [10][12][16]. - **Spot Market** - **Pig and Piglet Prices**: The average national live pig market price this week was 13.79 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg from last week and 3.84% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 28.55 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.17 yuan from last week and 12.74% from the same period last month [27]. - **Pork and Sow Prices**: The national pork market price in the week of August 21 was 24.93 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows this week was 32.51 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [31]. - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of August 20, the pig - grain ratio was 5.89, a decrease of 0.05 from the previous week [37]. - **Basis**: This week, the basis of the September live pig contract was 685 yuan/ton, and the basis of the November contract was 145 yuan/ton [20]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream Supply** - **Sow Inventory**: In late June 2025, the sow inventory was 40.41 million heads, a decrease of 10,000 heads from the previous month, an increase of 0.025% year - on - year, reaching 103.6% of the normal inventory. According to Mysteel data, in July, the sow inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 5.0986 million heads, a slight increase of 0.01% month - on - month and 3.03% year - on - year; the sow inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 174,000 heads, a slight decrease of 0.17% month - on - month and an increase of 6.67% year - on - year [42]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In the second quarter, the live pig inventory increased year - on - year, and according to Mysteel data, it increased month - on - month in July. In July, the live pig inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 36.145 million heads, an increase of 1.11% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year; the inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 1.4882 million heads, an increase of 2.49% month - on - month and 7.23% year - on - year [45]. - **Live Pig Slaughter Volume**: According to Mysteel data, in July, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms was 10.4362 million heads, a decrease of 3.08% month - on - month and an increase of 18.60% year - on - year; the slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 480,600 heads, a decrease of 1.46% month - on - month and an increase of 57.67% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of live pigs this week was 123.38 kg, unchanged from last week [50]. - **Industry Profit** - **Live Pig Breeding Profit**: As of August 29, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was a loss of 148.41 yuan/head, with the loss decreasing by 3.4 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 32.24 yuan/head, a decrease of 1.71 yuan/head from the previous month [56]. - **Poultry Breeding Profit**: As of August 29, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was a loss of 0.21 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 0.06 yuan/head week - on - week; the 817 meat - hybrid chicken breeding profit was 1.55 yuan/head [56]. - **Domestic Import**: In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative imported pork was 630,000 tons, with a monthly average of 90,000 tons. In July, the imported pork was 90,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%; from January to July, the imported pork was 630,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [57][61]. - **Substitute Products**: As of the week of August 29, the price of white - striped chickens was 14.3 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg from last week. As of the week of August 21, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.51 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan/kg from last week [65]. - **Feed Situation** - **Feed Price**: As of August 29, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,071.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13.15 yuan/ton from the previous week; the corn price was 2,364.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.82 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 908.34, a 0.58% increase from last week; the price of fattening pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg from last week [70][74]. - **Feed Output**: As of July 2025, the monthly feed output was 2,827.3 tons, a decrease of 110.4 tons from the previous month [79]. - **CPI**: As of July 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.0% year - on - year [83]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Slaughterhouse Operating Rate and Cold Storage Capacity**: In the 35th week, the slaughterhouse's operating rate was 29.27%, a 0.56 - percentage - point increase from last week. In the 34th week, the domestic cold storage capacity rate was 17.56%, unchanged from last week [86]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of July 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 31.66 million heads, a 5.32% increase from the previous month. In July 2025, the national catering revenue was 450.4 billion yuan, a 1.1% year - on - year increase [91]. - **Live Pig - Related Stocks**: The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data is provided [92].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - This week (8.11 - 8.17), the spot market for live pigs saw prices fluctuating. The futures market showed weak fluctuations. Next week (8.18 - 8.24), the spot price of live pigs is expected to run weakly, and may hit a new low this year. The price of the LH2509 futures contract will gradually return to the industrial logic, and attention should be paid to the hedging opportunities of the March contract [1][2][3][4] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review (8.11 - 8.17) - **Spot Market**: The price of live pigs fluctuated. The 20KG piglet price in Henan was 33.1 yuan/kg (last week: 35.1 yuan/kg), the live pig price in Henan was 13.88 yuan/kg (unchanged from last week), and the national 50KG binary sow price was 1611 yuan/head (last week: 1614 yuan/head). The supply was relatively loose, and the demand led to an increase in slaughter volume. The average slaughter weight was 124.03KG, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01% [1] - **Futures Market**: The price of the live pig futures LH2509 contract showed weak fluctuations, with a high of 14030 yuan/ton, a low of 13800 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13825 yuan/ton (last week: 13930 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2509 contract was 55 yuan/ton (last week: - 50 yuan/ton) [2] 2. Next Week's Market Outlook (8.18 - 8.24) - **Spot Market**: The spot price of live pigs will run weakly. The supply pressure in the second half of August is large, and the demand increment is limited. The spot price may hit a new low this year [3] - **Futures Market**: The LH2509 contract will gradually return to the industrial logic, and the basis will gradually turn to a contango delivery structure. Attention should be paid to the hedging opportunities of the March contract. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [4] 3. Other Data - **Basis and Spread**: This week's basis was 55 yuan/ton, and the LH2509 - LH2511 spread was - 120 yuan/ton [9] - **Supply**: This week's average weight was 124.03KG (last week: 124.04KG). In June, the pork production was 529.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.3%; the pork import was 8.84 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.6% [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of live pigs is dominated by the slaughter rhythm, with possible repeated fluctuations. It is expected that the slaughter volume will first decrease and then increase in the short term, and the price will fluctuate slightly weaker [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The live pig price declined, with the main contract dropping 2.29% weekly [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, farmers may reduce the supply at the beginning of the month, but the supply may resume later as they may slaughter pigs at a lower weight. The demand has slightly recovered in some areas, and the slaughterhouse operation rate has slightly increased, but high temperatures still suppress consumers' willingness to buy pork, resulting in a limited increase. Overall, short - term prices are dominated by the slaughter rhythm and are expected to fluctuate slightly weaker [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price declined this week, with the main contract dropping 2.29% weekly [10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 1, the net short position of the top 20 holders decreased, and there were 3000 futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 16 from last week [17]. Spot Market - **Live Pig and Piglet Prices**: The national average live pig price was 14.23 yuan/kg this week, down 0.58 yuan/kg from last week and 5.51% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 32.72 yuan/kg, down 1.14 yuan/kg from last week and 3.85% from last month [28]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: As of July 24, the national average pork price was 25.37 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.52 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [32]. - **Pig - grain Ratio**: As of July 23, the pig - grain ratio was 6.16, down 0.07 from the previous week, below the break - even point [36]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream Situation - **Breeding Sow Inventory**: In June, the inventory of breeding sows increased month - on - month, reaching 103.7% of the normal level. According to Mysteel data, the inventory of large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased slightly [41]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the live pig inventory increased year - on - year. In June, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of large - scale and small and medium - sized farms increased month - on - month [44]. - **Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In June, the slaughter volume of large - scale farms increased month - on - month, while that of small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly. The average slaughter weight decreased [47]. Industry Profit - **Live Pig and Poultry Farming Profit**: As of August 1, the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 116.78 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 45.39 yuan/head. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 43.85 yuan/head, a decrease of 18.3 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was a loss of 0.16 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 0.1 yuan/head, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 0.19 yuan/head [52]. Domestic Market - **Pork Imports**: In the first six months of 2025, China imported a total of 540,000 tons of pork, with a monthly average of 90,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.88%, at a historically low level [53][57]. Substitute Products - **White - striped Chicken Price and Standard - Fat Price Difference**: As of August 1, the price of white - striped chicken was 13.70 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of July 31, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.41 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/kg from last week [60]. Feed Market - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of August 1, the price of soybean meal increased by 14.57 yuan/ton to 2977.71 yuan/ton, while the price of corn decreased by 5.09 yuan/ton to 2402.75 yuan/ton [66]. - **Feed Index and Spot Price**: As of August 1, the DCE pig feed cost index closed at 935.61, a decrease of 0.82% from last week. The price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [70]. - **Feed Production**: As of June 2025, the monthly feed production was 2.9377 million tons, an increase of 175,600 tons month - on - month [75]. CPI - As of June 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year [79]. Downstream Situation - **Slaughterhouse Operation**: In the 31st week, the slaughterhouse operation rate was 26.83%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points from last week. The fresh - sales rate decreased slightly, and the frozen - product storage rate increased slightly [82]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of June 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughterhouses decreased by 6.53% month - on - month. In June, the national catering revenue was 47.076 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [87]. Live Pig - related Stocks - The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data is provided [88].