生猪：现货不及预期，近端收基差行情 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 08 月 17 日 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 报告导读： （1）本周市场回顾（8.11-8.17） 现货市场，生猪价格震荡运行。河南 20KG 仔猪价格 33.1 元/公斤（上周 35.1 元/公斤），本周河南 生猪价格 13.88 元/公斤（上周 13.88 元/公斤），全国 50KG 二元母猪价格 1611 元/头（上周 1614 元/ 头）。供应端，头部集团增量降重，其他集团及散户被动压栏，供应偏宽松；需求端，价格相对较低刺激 宰量上升，部分入库及二育的投机需求启动。根据卓创资讯数据，本周全国出栏平均体重 124.03KG（上 周 124.04KG），出栏均重环比下降 0.01%。 期货市场，生猪期货价格弱势震荡。本周生猪期货 LH2509 合约最高价为 14030 元/吨，最低价为 13800 元/吨，收盘价为 13825 元/吨（上周同期 13930 元/吨）。基差方面，LH2509 合约基 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of live pigs is dominated by the slaughter rhythm, with possible repeated fluctuations. It is expected that the slaughter volume will first decrease and then increase in the short term, and the price will fluctuate slightly weaker [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The live pig price declined, with the main contract dropping 2.29% weekly [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, farmers may reduce the supply at the beginning of the month, but the supply may resume later as they may slaughter pigs at a lower weight. The demand has slightly recovered in some areas, and the slaughterhouse operation rate has slightly increased, but high temperatures still suppress consumers' willingness to buy pork, resulting in a limited increase. Overall, short - term prices are dominated by the slaughter rhythm and are expected to fluctuate slightly weaker [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price declined this week, with the main contract dropping 2.29% weekly [10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 1, the net short position of the top 20 holders decreased, and there were 3000 futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 16 from last week [17]. Spot Market - **Live Pig and Piglet Prices**: The national average live pig price was 14.23 yuan/kg this week, down 0.58 yuan/kg from last week and 5.51% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 32.72 yuan/kg, down 1.14 yuan/kg from last week and 3.85% from last month [28]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: As of July 24, the national average pork price was 25.37 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.52 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [32]. - **Pig - grain Ratio**: As of July 23, the pig - grain ratio was 6.16, down 0.07 from the previous week, below the break - even point [36]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream Situation - **Breeding Sow Inventory**: In June, the inventory of breeding sows increased month - on - month, reaching 103.7% of the normal level. According to Mysteel data, the inventory of large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased slightly [41]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the live pig inventory increased year - on - year. In June, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of large - scale and small and medium - sized farms increased month - on - month [44]. - **Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In June, the slaughter volume of large - scale farms increased month - on - month, while that of small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly. The average slaughter weight decreased [47]. Industry Profit - **Live Pig and Poultry Farming Profit**: As of August 1, the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 116.78 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 45.39 yuan/head. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 43.85 yuan/head, a decrease of 18.3 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was a loss of 0.16 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 0.1 yuan/head, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 0.19 yuan/head [52]. Domestic Market - **Pork Imports**: In the first six months of 2025, China imported a total of 540,000 tons of pork, with a monthly average of 90,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.88%, at a historically low level [53][57]. Substitute Products - **White - striped Chicken Price and Standard - Fat Price Difference**: As of August 1, the price of white - striped chicken was 13.70 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of July 31, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.41 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/kg from last week [60]. Feed Market - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of August 1, the price of soybean meal increased by 14.57 yuan/ton to 2977.71 yuan/ton, while the price of corn decreased by 5.09 yuan/ton to 2402.75 yuan/ton [66]. - **Feed Index and Spot Price**: As of August 1, the DCE pig feed cost index closed at 935.61, a decrease of 0.82% from last week. The price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [70]. - **Feed Production**: As of June 2025, the monthly feed production was 2.9377 million tons, an increase of 175,600 tons month - on - month [75]. CPI - As of June 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year [79]. Downstream Situation - **Slaughterhouse Operation**: In the 31st week, the slaughterhouse operation rate was 26.83%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points from last week. The fresh - sales rate decreased slightly, and the frozen - product storage rate increased slightly [82]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of June 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughterhouses decreased by 6.53% month - on - month. In June, the national catering revenue was 47.076 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [87]. Live Pig - related Stocks - The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data is provided [88].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of live pigs increased slightly, with the main contract rising 0.28% weekly. In the short - term, the supply is still tight as the mid - month increase in large - scale farm slaughter is slow, and smallholders are reluctant to sell, and the average slaughter weight is decreasing. However, there is supply pressure in the medium - term as the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the third quarter. [6][10] - On the demand side, high temperatures suppress pork purchasing, and with schools on holiday, the terminal sales are slow, and the slaughterhouse operating rate has declined continuously but is higher than last year. Overall, it's the off - season for consumption, and demand is weakening steadily. The slaughter rhythm of farmers and the entry of second - fattening are key factors affecting short - term market conditions. [6] - Currently, tight supply supports a strong price oscillation, but the increase may slow down as the mid - month slaughter volume may recover. In the medium - term, the off - season demand and medium - term supply pressure will limit the price upside. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The live pig price increased slightly, with the main contract rising 0.28% weekly. [6][10] - **Market Outlook**: Short - term supply is tight, medium - term has supply pressure; demand is in the off - season and weakening. The slaughter rhythm and second - fattening entry are key short - term factors. [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Interval trading or 9 - 1 positive spread trading. [6] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - The futures price increased slightly this week, and the net short position of the top 20 holders increased. As of July 11, the net short position was 16,877 lots, an increase of 6,313 lots from last week, and there were 447 futures warrants, a decrease of 3 from last week. [10][12][16] 3.2.2. Spot Market - **Live Pig and Piglet Prices**: The national average live pig price was 14.92 yuan/kg this week, a decrease of 0.37 yuan/kg from last week but an increase of 4.48% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 34.03 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week but a decrease of 0.32% from last month. [27] - **Pork and Sow Prices**: The national average pork price was 25.35 yuan/kg in the week of July 3, an increase of 0.15 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.52 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. [31] - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of July 2, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 6.21, an increase of 0.08 from the previous week, but still below the break - even point. [36] 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In May 2025, the inventory of breeding sows increased. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs data showed that the inventory was 40.42 million heads at the end of May, a 0.1% month - on - month increase and a 1.15% year - on - year increase, reaching 103.6% of the normal level. Mysteel data also showed an increase in both large - scale farms and small - scale farms. [41] - **Live Pig Inventory**: In Q1 2023, the live pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a decrease of 10.12 million heads from the end of the previous quarter but an increase of 8.81 million heads year - on - year. In May, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small - scale farms increased month - on - month according to Mysteel data. [44] - **Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In May, the slaughter volume of sample enterprises decreased month - on - month, and the average slaughter weight decreased. The average slaughter weight of national ternary hybrid live pigs this week was 123.50 kg, a slight decrease of 0.02 kg from last week. [49] 3.3.2. Industry Profit - **Livestock Farming Profit**: As of July 11, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was 31.6 yuan/head, an increase of 57.86 yuan/head week - on - week; the profit of self - breeding and self - fattening was 133.87 yuan/head, an increase of 14.15 yuan/head week - on - week. [54] - **Poultry Farming Profit**: As of July 11, the profit of laying hens was - 0.69 yuan/head, with the loss increasing by 0.11 yuan/head week - on - week, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was - 0.92 yuan/head. [54] 3.3.3. Domestic Market - In the first five months of 2025, China imported a total of 450,000 tons of pork, with a monthly average of 90,000 tons, a 4.65% year - on - year increase, and it was at a historically low level during the same period. [55][59] 3.3.4. Substitute Products - As of the week of July 11, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of the week of July 10, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.14 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg from last week. [62] 3.3.5. Feed - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of July 11, the spot price of soybean meal was 2,914.86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.43 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2,421.57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.7 yuan/ton from the previous week. [68] - **Feed Index and Price**: As of July 11, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 935.32, a 1.63% decrease from last week. The price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. [71] - **Feed Production**: In May 2025, the monthly feed production was 27.621 million tons, an increase of 0.981 million tons month - on - month. [76] 3.3.6. CPI - As of June 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year. [80] 3.3.7. Downstream - **Slaughter Enterprises**: In the 28th week, the operating rate of slaughter enterprises was 25.22%, a decrease of 1.28 percentage points from last week but 5.48 percentage points higher year - on - year. As of Thursday this week, the frozen product storage rate of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 17.46%, an increase of 3% from last week. [83] - **Slaughter Volume and Catering**: In May 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 32.16 million heads, a 4.52% increase from the previous month. The national catering revenue in May was 457.82 billion yuan, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. [88] 3.3.8. Live Pig Stocks - The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided. [89][91]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs is tight in the short - term, leading to a strong price fluctuation. The main contract of live pig futures rose 2.14% this week. However, in the medium - term, there is still supply pressure as the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the third quarter. The demand is weak during the off - season, and the key factors affecting the short - term market are the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end and the entry of second - fattening. If the slaughter rhythm recovers later, the price increase will slow down and adjust, and the off - season demand and medium - term supply pressure will limit the upside space of prices. The recommended strategy is range trading [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights - **Market Review**: The price of live pigs continued to rise, with the main contract rising 2.14% this week [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, the supply is tight due to the scale farms' price - holding and reduced slaughter at the beginning of the month, and the farmers' reluctance to sell. The average slaughter weight has decreased. As the price difference between fat and standard pigs narrows and the price of live pigs rises, the slaughter rhythm is expected to recover. In the medium - term, there is supply pressure as the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the third quarter. The demand is weak during the off - season, with high temperatures suppressing people's willingness to buy pork, slow terminal sales, and a decline in the slaughterhouse's operating rate, although it is higher than last year [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Range trading [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures rebounded this week, with the main contract rising 2.14% [10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of July 4, the net short position of the top 20 holders of live pig futures increased by 1168 lots to 10564 lots compared with last week. The number of futures warehouse receipts was 450, a decrease of 300 compared with last week [16]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - **Base Difference**: This week, the base difference of the July contract of live pigs was 1350 yuan/ton, and the base difference of the September contract was 895 yuan/ton [20]. - **Live Pig and Piglet Prices**: The average price of live pigs in the national market this week was 14.55 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg compared with last week and 2.03% compared with last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 34.03 yuan/kg, the same as last week and a decrease of 10.78% compared with last month [27]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: As of the week of June 26, the national market price of pork was 25.20 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week. The average market price of binary sows this week was 32.52 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week [31]. - **Pig - grain Ratio**: As of the week of June 11, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 6.12, a decrease of 0.17 compared with the previous week, and it was lower than the break - even point [35]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In May 2025, the inventory of breeding sows increased. The inventory of breeding sows at the end of May was 40420000 heads, a month - on - month increase of 40000 heads (0.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 1.15%, reaching 103.6% of the normal inventory. According to Mysteel data, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms in May increased slightly by 0.33% month - on - month and 4.26% year - on - year, and the inventory of small and medium - sized farms increased slightly by 0.03% month - on - month and 8.07% year - on - year [40]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In the first quarter, the inventory of live pigs increased year - on - year. According to Mysteel data, in May, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 0.45% month - on - month and 5.75% year - on - year, and the inventory of small and medium - sized farms increased by 0.82% month - on - month and 8.07% year - on - year [43]. - **Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In May, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms decreased by 2.38% month - on - month and increased by 12.35% year - on - year, and the slaughter volume of small and medium - sized farms decreased by 1.48% month - on - month and increased by 73.46% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of externally -三元 live pigs this week was 123.52 kg, a slight decrease of 0.01 kg compared with last week [47]. 3.3.2. Industry Profit and Other Aspects - **Breeding Profit**: As of July 4, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was a loss of 26.26 yuan/head, a decrease in loss of 105.45 yuan/head compared with last week. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 119.72 yuan/head, an increase of 69.48 yuan/head compared with last week. The profit of poultry breeding was a loss of 0.58 yuan/head, a decrease in loss of 0.17 yuan/head compared with last week [52]. - **Pork Import**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative import of pork was 450000 tons, with an average monthly import of 90000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.65%, at a historically low level [53][57]. - **Substitute and Feed**: As of July 4, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.20 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.20 yuan/kg compared with last week. As of the week of June 26, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.06 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.09 yuan/kg compared with last week. As of July 4, the spot price of soybean meal was 2916.29 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.43 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. As of July 3, the price of corn was 2436.86 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.88 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. As of July 4, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index decreased by 0.77% compared with last week. This week, the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg compared with last week. As of May 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2762100 tons, an increase of 98100 tons compared with the previous month [61][66][69][74]. - **CPI**: As of May 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, the same as last month [77]. 3.3.3. Downstream - **Slaughter and Demand**: In the 27th week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 26.50%, a decrease of 1.24 percentage points compared with last week and 10.32 percentage points higher than last year. As of this Thursday, the frozen product storage rate of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 14.46%, a decrease of 2.95% compared with last week. As of May 2025, the slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises was 32.16 million heads, an increase of 4.52% compared with last month. In May 2025, the national catering revenue was 457.82 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [80][85]. 3.4. Live Pig Stocks - The report mentioned the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data was provided [86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side has seen a slowdown in the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end, and the average slaughter weight has decreased, leading to a reduction in supply. However, the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the second and third quarters, and the medium - term supply pressure is increasing. On the demand side, the slaughterhouse operating rate has stopped falling and rebounded, but high temperatures suppress the willingness to purchase pork, the terminal sales speed has slowed down, and the rebound space is limited, with a possible subsequent decline. Short - term supply reduction, along with policies discouraging secondary fattening and state reserve purchases boosting market sentiment, support a short - term rebound in hog futures prices. But the expected increase in medium - term supply and weak demand limit the upside of spot prices, which may drag down the futures price increase. Overall, the market is expected to be volatile. The strategy suggestion is to wait and see [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: Hog prices rebounded, with the main contract rising 0.76% weekly [6][9]. - **Market Outlook**: Short - term supply reduction and policy support lead to a short - term futures price rebound, but medium - term supply increase and weak demand limit the upside of spot and futures prices. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporary wait - and - see [6]. 3.2 Futures Market Situation - **Price Movement**: Futures rebounded, with the main contract rising 0.76% weekly [9]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: The net short position increased, and there were 750 futures warehouse receipts [11][15]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - **Hog and Piglet Prices**: The national average hog price was 14.33 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week and down 0.9% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 34.14 yuan/kg, down 0.14 yuan/kg from last week and 16.04% from last month [26]. - **Pork and Sow Prices**: On June 12, the national average pork price was 25.26 yuan/kg, down 0.23 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.52 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [31]. - **Pig - grain Ratio**: As of June 11, the pig - grain ratio was 6.12, down 0.17 from the previous week, below the break - even point [35]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Sow Inventory**: In April 2025, the national sow inventory was 40380000 heads, down 10000 from the previous month, up 1.31% year - on - year, equivalent to 103.6% of the normal inventory. In May, the sow inventory of large - scale farms increased by 0.33% month - on - month and 4.26% year - on - year, and that of small and medium - sized farms increased by 0.03% month - on - month and 8.07% year - on - year [40]. - **Hog Inventory**: In Q1 2023, the national hog inventory was 417310000 heads, down 10120000 from the previous quarter but up 8810000 year - on - year. In May, the hog inventory of large - scale farms increased by 0.45% month - on - month and 5.75% year - on - year, and that of small and medium - sized farms increased by 0.82% month - on - month and 8.07% year - on - year [43]. - **Hog Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In May, the hog slaughter volume of large - scale farms was 1059860000 heads, down 2.38% month - on - month but up 12.35% year - on - year, and that of small and medium - sized farms was 48960000 heads, down 1.48% month - on - month but up 73.46% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight was 123.78 kg, down 0.18 kg from last week [47]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Breeding Profits**: As of June 20, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was a loss of 186.79 yuan/head, with a 19.4 - yuan increase compared to the previous week; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 19.4 yuan/head, with a 22.3 - yuan increase compared to the previous week. The poultry breeding profit was a loss of 0.47 yuan/head, with a 0.08 - yuan reduction in loss compared to the previous week [52]. - **Import Volume**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative imported pork was 450000 tons, with an average monthly import of 90000 tons, up 4.65% year - on - year, at a historically low level [57]. - **Substitute Products**: As of June 20, the price of white - striped chicken was 13.0 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of June 19, the average national price difference between standard and fat hogs was - 0.22 yuan/kg, a 0.01 - yuan decrease from last week [60]. - **Feed Situation**: As of June 20, the spot price of soybean meal was 3015.14 yuan/ton, up 47.14 yuan/ton from the previous week; the corn price was 2417.06 yuan/ton, up 11.37 yuan/ton from the previous week. The DCE hog feed cost index closed at 971.29, up 0.99% from last week, and the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.36 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. In May 2025, the monthly feed production was 2762100 tons, up 98100 tons from the previous month [66][69][74]. - **CPI**: As of May 2025, the year - on - year CPI decreased by 0.1%, with a narrowing decline [77]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Slaughter and Cold Storage**: In the 25th week, the slaughterhouse operating rate was 27.97%, up 0.75 percentage points from last week and 17.77 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of Thursday this week, the cold storage capacity of key domestic slaughterhouses was 17.35%, up 0.01% from last week [80]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of April 2025, the slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises was 30770000 heads, up 0.46% from the previous month. In May 2025, the national catering revenue was 4578.2 billion yuan, up 5.9% year - on - year [85]. 3.7 Hog - related Stocks - Mentioned stocks include Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [86].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure will ease at the end and beginning of the month, but the selling willingness of breeders and second - fattening farmers increases, and the mid - term supply pressure will increase due to the growth cycle of sows in the second and third quarters. - After the Dragon Boat Festival, terminal demand will cool down again, and the seasonal consumption of pork will weaken with rising temperatures. - In the short term, the change in the slaughter rhythm will lead to an adjustment in hog prices, but the overall price trend is weak due to the mid - term supply - demand imbalance with a looser pattern. - The recommended strategy is to short on rallies and conduct rolling operations. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights - **Market Review**: Hog prices fluctuated and adjusted, with the main contract rising 0.67% weekly. - **Market Outlook**: Supply pressure will ease in the short term but increase in the mid - term, and demand will decline seasonally. Overall, the short - term price will adjust, and the mid - term trend is weak. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies and conduct rolling operations. [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: This week, futures fluctuated and adjusted. The net short position of the top 20 futures decreased, and there were 0 futures warrants. As of May 30, the net short position of the top 20 in hog futures was 8,804 lots, 3,750 lots less than last week, and the number of futures warrants decreased by 633 to 5 lots compared to last week. [10][12][16] - **Spot Market**: - The basis of the July and September hog contracts was 1,295 yuan/ton and 895 yuan/ton respectively this week. - The national average hog price was 14.62 yuan/kg, up 0.27 yuan/kg from last week and down 1.88% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 40.66 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week and down 0.59% from last month. - The national pork price was 25.68 yuan/kg in the week of May 22, down 0.16 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.53 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. - The hog - grain ratio was 6.29 as of the week of May 21, down 0.13 from the previous week, below the break - even point and continuing to weaken. [20][27][31][35] 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream**: - In April, the inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly month - on - month, accounting for 103.6% of the normal inventory. The inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms in April showed a slight increase. - In the first quarter, the hog inventory increased year - on - year, and the inventory of institutions increased slightly in April. - In April, the hog slaughter volume increased, and the average slaughter weight remained unchanged. [40][43][46] - **Industry**: - As of May 30, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was a loss of 84.37 yuan/head, a decrease of 68.32 yuan/head month - on - month; the profit of self - breeding and self - fattening was 35.65 yuan/head, a decrease of 12.56 yuan/head month - on - month. The poultry breeding profit was a loss of 0.36 yuan/head, with a reduced loss of 0.09 yuan/head week - on - week. - From January to April 2025, the cumulative imported pork was 360,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.88%, but at a historically low level. - As of May 30, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.2 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan/kg from last week; the average price difference between standard and fat hogs was - 0.01 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg from last week. - As of May 30, the spot price of soybean meal was 2,975.14 yuan/ton, down 52.86 yuan/ton from the previous week; the corn price was 2,376.08 yuan/ton, up 4.31 yuan/ton from the previous week. - As of May 30, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange hog feed cost index was 943.45, up 0.3% from last week; the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.37 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. - As of April 2025, the monthly feed output was 26.64 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.132 million tons. - As of April 2025, China's CPI decreased year - on - year, but the decline narrowed. [51][56][60][65] - **Downstream**: - In the 22nd week, the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate was 29.35%, up 0.8 percentage points from last week and 9.03 percentage points higher year - on - year. The frozen product storage capacity of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 17.28%, unchanged from last week. - As of April 2025, the slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises was 30.77 million heads, an increase of 0.46% from the previous month. In April 2025, the national catering revenue was 416.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. [79][84] - **Hog Stocks**: The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data is provided. [85]