南财智讯1月30日电，新希望发布2025年度业绩预告，预计2025年全年归属于上市公司股东的净利润 为-15.00亿元—-18.00亿元，同比预减416.72%—480.07%；预计2025年全年归属于上市公司股东的扣除 非经常性损益的净利润为-11.80亿元—-14.80亿元，同比预减292.05%—340.87%。报告期内，公司稳步 发展与提升生猪业务，加强防疫与生产管理，出栏规模稳健提升，各项技术指标持续改善，养殖成本持 续降低，但受生猪市场行情波动影响，生猪价格下降幅度大于成本下降幅度，致公司生猪养殖利润较同 期下降。同时，公司对部分低效种猪及低效资产进行有序淘汰和清退，亦影响公司利润下降。与此同 时，公司在饲料业务上持续扩规模、提效率、降费用，强化内生能力，满足市场变化下客户对产品、成 本、服务的新需求，加大海外市场投入与开发力度，驱动饲料业务进入新的增长通道，报告期内实现饲 料业务利润量利同增。 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.30」 生猪市场周报 节前供应施压，关注需求表现 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z001845 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 联系电话：059586778969 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：生猪价格延续跌势，主力合约2605合约周度下跌1.69%。 行情展望：2月份出栏时间较少，虽然部分企业惜售挺价，但是市场整体在节前预计保持出栏节奏， 节前供应压力增加，关注养殖端出栏情况。需求端，南方交通恢复，屠宰开工率回升，节前备货预期， 但学生放假，短期需求增幅有限。总体来说，需求虽然有回升，但增幅受限，节前市场供应压力较大， 施压生猪价格偏弱调整。 本周期货下行 图1、大连生猪期货价格走势图 来源：文化财经 瑞达期货研究院 生猪价格延续跌势，主力合约2605合约周度下跌1.69%。 4 「 期货市场情况」 「 期货市场情况」 本周期货净持仓净空减少，期货仓单0张 图2、生猪前20名持仓变化 图3、生猪期货仓单情况 0.00 200.00 400.00 600.0 ...

| | | | | | 生猪（LH） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 1月 | 3月 | 5月 | 7月 | 9月 | 11月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 12000 | 11565 | 11850 | 12470 | 13390 | 13360 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 | 11900 | 11600 | 11895 | 12555 | 13460 | 13430 | | | 涨跌 | 100 | -35 | -45 | -85 | -70 | -70 | | 货 | 涨跌幅 | 0.84% | -0.30% | -0.38% | -0.68% | -0.52% | -0.52% | | 市 | 成交量 | 5 | 42940 | 18255 | 4227 | 4257 | 1202 | | 场 | 持仓量 | 34 | 131413 | 108344 | 45736 | 34051 | 17829 | | | 持仓量增减 | -15 | -4037 | 1559 | 692 | -385 | 357 | | | ...

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in pig sales volume for December 2025, with a total of 465,800 pigs sold, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 12.21% and a year-on-year growth of 18.71% [1][2] - Despite the increase in sales volume, the sales revenue for December 2025 was 605 million yuan, which represents a year-on-year decline of 15.62%, primarily due to fluctuations in the domestic pig market [1][2] - For the entire year of 2025, the company sold a total of 4.5018 million pigs, achieving a year-on-year growth of 25.23%, with total sales revenue reaching 6.594 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.15% [2] Sales Performance - In December 2025, the average sales price of pigs was 11.33 yuan per kilogram [1] - The sales revenue for December showed a month-on-month increase of 18.16% [1] - The overall sales performance in December was attributed to the gradual release of production capacity [2] Guarantee Progress - As of the announcement date, the company and its subsidiaries had actual guarantees exceeding 11 billion yuan within the authorized guarantee limit of 16 billion yuan [4][6] - The company provided financing guarantees totaling 34.45 million yuan to clients and cooperative farms, with overdue guarantee amounts being controllable [4][5] - The company has authorized its subsidiaries to provide guarantees for clients, with a total guarantee limit of 25.25 million yuan for financing purposes [3][5] Financial Overview - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 20.744 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.99% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 257 million yuan, showing a substantial year-on-year increase of 92.56% [7] - However, the third quarter faced significant operational pressure, with a net profit of only 22 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 92.50% [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term supply of live pigs is tightening, which supports the price to fluctuate slightly stronger, but the supportive effects of secondary fattening and demand are weakening, and the risk of price decline is increasing [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Performance**: The live pig price rose and then adjusted. The main contract 2603 increased by 1.29% on a weekly basis [7][10]. - **Market Outlook**: At the beginning of the month, there may be supply reduction operations, and the supply of fat pigs is tight, reducing short - term supply pressure. However, the entry of secondary fattening is becoming more cautious. The current demand is in the peak season, but after the New Year's Day stocking ends, the demand drops from the small peak, and the terminal consumption's acceptance of price increases is limited, so the increase in slaughter volume is limited [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price Movement**: The futures rebounded this week, with the main contract 2603 rising 1.29% weekly [10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of December 31, the net short position of the top 20 holders in live pig futures decreased by 119 hands to 51,598 hands, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 1,013, an increase of 150 from the previous week [16]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2603 and lh2605 contracts was - 370, and the spread between lh2603 and lh2607 contracts was - 1,010 [22]. - **Spot Market** - **Live Pig and Piglet Prices**: The average national live pig market price this week was 12.28 yuan/kg, up 0.65 yuan/kg from last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 23.72 yuan/kg, up 0.34 yuan/kg from last week [36]. - **Pork and Sow Prices**: In the week of December 25, the national pork market price was 22.48 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows last week was 32.46 yuan/kg, remaining flat from the previous week [40]. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of December 24, 2025, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.24, up 0.01 from the previous week [44]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - **Sow Inventory**: In October 2025, the official inventory of breeding sows was 39.9 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.038%. According to Mysteel data, in November, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms decreased by 0.37% month - on - month and increased by 0.07% year - on - year, while that in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.78% month - on - month and increased by 0.78% year - on - year [49]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: At the end of the third quarter of 2025, the national live pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. According to Mysteel data, in November, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 0.32% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year, while that in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.07% month - on - month and increased by 6.94% year - on - year [53]. - **Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In November, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms was 11.3649 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year increase of 5.59%. The slaughter volume of small and medium - sized farms was 0.5151 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 2.03% and a year - on - year increase of 29.75%. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary live pigs this week was 123.55 kg, a decrease of 0.12 kg from last week [58]. - **Industry Profit** - **Live Pig and Poultry Farming Profits**: As of December 26, the loss of purchasing piglets for farming was 162.8 yuan/head, narrowing by 26.7 yuan/head; the loss of self - breeding and self - raising was 130.11 yuan/head, narrowing by 0.76 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was - 0.47 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 yuan/head, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 0.01 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 yuan/head [63]. - **Domestic Import** - **Pork Imports**: In November, China's pork imports were 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.33%. From January to November, the total pork imports were 920,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.12% [68]. - **Substitutes** - **Prices**: As of the week of December 26, the price of white - striped chickens remained flat at 14.1 yuan/kg compared with last week. As of the week of December 25, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.61 yuan/kg, widening by 0.13 yuan/kg from last week [73]. - **Feed** - **Raw Material Prices**: As of December 31, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,172.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.57 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the corn price was 2,351.57 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.94 yuan/ton from the previous week [78]. - **Feed Index and Price**: As of December 31, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 892.17, and the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.33 yuan/kg, remaining flat from last week [81]. - **Feed Output**: In November 2025, the monthly feed output was 29.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 209,000 tons. The sales of piglet feed increased by 0.42% month - on - month and 53.28% year - on - year [85]. - **CPI**: As of November 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year [89]. - **Downstream** - **Slaughter and Cold Storage**: In the 52nd week, the slaughter enterprise's operating rate was 40.24%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points from last week and 1.16 percentage points from the same period last year. The fresh - sales rate of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 87.42%, a decrease of 0.44% from last week, and the cold - storage capacity utilization rate was 18.20%, an increase of 0.01% from last week [92]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of November 2025, the slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises was 39.57 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 3.21% and a 24.04% increase compared with the previous period. In November 2025, the national catering revenue was 605.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [97]. - **Live Pig - Related Stocks**: The report mentions the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [98].

Group 1 - The company reported a total of 1.5675 million pigs sold in November 2025, representing a month-on-month decrease of 6.98% and a year-on-year increase of 24.44% [1] - Revenue from pig sales amounted to 1.812 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 5.53% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.61% [1] - The average selling price of pigs was 11.54 yuan per kilogram, with a month-on-month increase of 2.30% but a significant year-on-year decrease of 30.02%, primarily due to changes in the domestic pig market [1] Group 2 - The disclosed data pertains solely to the company's pig farming and sales activities, excluding other business segments [2] - The figures provided are unaudited and may differ from those in periodic reports, serving only as interim data for investor reference [2]

Core Viewpoint - New Hope (000876.SZ) reported significant changes in its pig sales for October 2025, with a notable increase in sales volume but a decline in revenue and average selling price [1] Sales Performance - The company sold 1.6851 million pigs in October 2025, representing a month-on-month increase of 20.86% and a year-on-year increase of 34.44% [1] - The substantial year-on-year growth in sales volume is attributed to a significant increase in the number of new births and the release of piglets [1] Revenue and Pricing - Revenue for October 2025 reached 1.918 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month increase of 9.85% but a year-on-year decrease of 7.83% [1] - The average selling price of commodity pigs was 11.28 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 12.49% and a year-on-year decrease of 35.06% [1] - The significant year-on-year decline in selling price is primarily influenced by changes in the domestic pig market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - New Hope (000876.SZ) reported a significant decline in revenue and average selling price of live pigs, primarily due to changes in the domestic market conditions [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - The company sold 1.3942 million live pigs in September 2025, representing a month-on-month increase of 4.22% and a year-on-year increase of 16.92% [1] - Revenue from sales reached 1.746 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 1.39% but a year-on-year decrease of 23.82% [1] Group 2: Pricing Trends - The average selling price of commodity pigs was 12.89 yuan per kilogram, showing a month-on-month decrease of 4.80% and a year-on-year decrease of 31.47% [1] - The substantial year-on-year decline in selling prices is mainly attributed to fluctuations in the domestic live pig market [1]

Core Viewpoint - New Hope (000876.SZ) reported a significant decline in revenue and average selling price of hogs, primarily due to changes in the domestic hog market conditions [1] Sales Performance - The company sold 1.3942 million hogs in September 2025, representing a month-on-month increase of 4.22% and a year-on-year increase of 16.92% [1] - Revenue for the same period was 1.746 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.39% but a year-on-year decrease of 23.82% [1] Pricing Trends - The average selling price of hogs was 12.89 yuan per kilogram, which reflects a month-on-month decrease of 4.80% and a year-on-year decrease of 31.47% [1] - The substantial year-on-year decline in selling prices is mainly attributed to fluctuations in the domestic hog market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in average selling prices of live pigs in August has led to a decrease in sales revenue for several listed companies in the pig farming sector, indicating a challenging market environment for the industry. Company Summaries - New Hope reported sales of 1.3378 million pigs in August 2025, a month-on-month increase of 2.71% and a year-on-year increase of 4.72%. However, revenue fell to 1.722 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 4.45% and a year-on-year decrease of 30.73%, primarily due to a significant drop in selling prices, which averaged 13.54 yuan/kg, down 6.23% month-on-month and 32.74% year-on-year [1] - Dongrui Co. announced sales of 94,800 pigs in August 2025, with revenue of 160 million yuan, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 5.48%. The average selling price was 15.86 yuan/kg, down 2.02% month-on-month [1] - Wen's Co. reported sales of 3.2457 million pigs in August 2025, generating revenue of 4.825 billion yuan. The average selling price for live pigs was 13.90 yuan/kg, with year-on-year changes of 37.88% in sales volume but a decline of 17.70% in price [2] - Zhenghong Technology sold 16,800 pigs in August 2025, with revenue of 22.8655 million yuan, showing a month-on-month increase in volume of 3.46% but a revenue decrease of 12.12%. Year-on-year, sales volume increased by 63.31% and revenue by 21.14% [3] - Tianyu Bio sold 26,000 pigs in August 2025, with revenue of 29.8423 million yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 50.83% in volume and 41.89% in revenue, but a year-on-year revenue decline of 53.32% [3] Industry Insights - The average price of pork in China's wholesale markets was 19.94 yuan/kg on August 29, 2025, down from 20.10 yuan/kg the previous week, indicating a continuous decline in pig prices for eight consecutive weeks [3] - Guotai Junan Futures noted that the increase in planned slaughter volumes by large groups and limited demand from smallholders has led to a supply pressure that is difficult to alleviate, with daily transactions falling short of expectations [3] - Guoxin Futures projected that the theoretical slaughter volume will continue to increase in September, with a significant rise expected in October, suggesting that supply growth will outpace seasonal consumption increases [4]