Group 1: Investment Ratings - Both the strategies for the pig and egg sectors are rated as neutral [3][5] Group 2: Core Views - For the pig market, the current reduction in pig spot volume has a greater impact on near - term contracts but is bearish for far - term contracts. The supply is likely to continue increasing in the short term, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change. The data of reproductive sows from anti - involution culling may be realized in the second half of next year [2] - For the egg market, schools have concentrated stocking demand for the start of the semester in early September. As it gradually enters the seasonal consumption peak season, the increasing consumption demand will support the rise of egg prices. However, the impact of cold - storage eggs entering the market on the spot market should be closely monitored [4] Group 3: Market News and Key Data Pig Market - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2509 contract yesterday was 14,010 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton or 0.90% from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: The price of ternary live pigs in Henan was 13.96 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 14.09 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.38 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices on August 6: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 113.78, up 0.26 points; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 113.93, up 0.30 points. The average wholesale price of pork was 20.67 yuan/kg, up 1.7%; beef was 64.47 yuan/kg, up 0.3%; mutton was 59.73 yuan/kg, up 0.7%; eggs were 7.54 yuan/kg, down 0.8%; white - striped chickens were 17.40 yuan/kg, down 0.5% [1] Egg Market - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2509 contract yesterday was 3,378 yuan/500 kilograms, up 48 yuan or 1.44% from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 2.80 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shandong, it was 2.95 yuan/jin, down 0.10 yuan; in Hebei, it was 2.62 yuan/jin, unchanged [3] - Inventory: On August 6, 2025, the production - link inventory was 0.89 days, unchanged from the previous day. The circulation - link inventory was 1.18 days, up 0.02 days or 1.72% [3]

农产品日报 | 2025-07-24 宏观情绪利好，生猪期价偏强运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约14590元/吨，较前交易日变动+210.00元/吨，幅度+1.46%。现货方面，河南地 区外三元生猪价格14.32元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.07元/公斤，现货基差 LH09-270，较前交易日变动-280；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 14.42元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.13元/公斤，现货基差LH09-170，较前交易日变动-340；四 川地区外三元生猪价格13.50元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.12元/公斤，现货基差LH09-1090，较前交易日变动-330。 据农业农村部监测，7月23日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.74，比昨天下降0.03个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为112.80，比昨天下降0.02个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.57元/公斤，比昨天下降0.8%；牛肉64.00 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.1%；羊肉59.16元/公斤，比昨天下降0.6%；鸡蛋7.43元/公斤，比昨天上升1.6%；白条鸡17.47 元/公斤，比昨天上升1.2% ...

【生猪行情回顾及行业数据概览】3日，生猪主力2509合约期货小幅低开后冲高回落，震荡走跌，尾盘 收阴。最高13645元/吨，最低13485元/吨，收盘报1510元/吨，较昨日跌0.81%。指数总持仓增加3497手 至162323手。现货方面，3日全国外三元均价14.36元/公斤，较昨日跌0.06元/公斤。 需求端，当前肥标 价差倒挂、栏舍利用率较高，二次育肥补栏积极性降低，多观望。随着气温上升，终端需求转弱，端午 节后屠宰企业订单减少，开工率和屠宰量下滑。6月3日样本屠宰企业屠宰量14.43万头，较昨日减少0.05 万头，较一周前减少0.7万头。供应端，6月养殖端出栏量或环比增加，养殖端正常出栏，前期二育陆续 出栏，出栏体重维持高位。 整体来看，供应增加，需求节后转弱，供需宽松，生猪现货价格偏弱，需 关注后期二育节奏。期货方面，目前期货合约均贴水现货，受需求淡季、供需偏宽松以及二育预期出栏 影响，走势偏弱。 行业要闻数据显示，5月23日当周，15kg仔猪市场销售均价为627元/头，较上周下调 3元/头。截止5月23日，自繁自养生猪头均利润138元/头，周环比减少31元/头；外购仔猪养殖头均利润 93元/头，周 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The USDA May supply - demand report had mixed impacts on agricultural products. The prices of some products like cotton rose, while others such as palm oil, sugar, and bean粕 declined. The overall agricultural product market showed a diversified trend with different influencing factors for each variety [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Cotton - The cotton main 2509 contract continued to rise despite a pull - back. The Sino - US high - level economic and trade talks' positive outcome, domestic macro - benefits, and reduced commercial inventory supported the price increase. However, the textile industry is in a off - season [2]. - Technically, it showed strength. The strategy is to go long on dips with a support level of 13270 and a resistance level of 13475 [3]. Palm Oil - The palm oil main 2509 contract reversed and fell. The MPOB April report showed a significant increase in Malaysian palm oil production and inventory, while exports met expectations. The large increase in production and inventory pressured the price [4]. - The contract entered a downward trend. The strategy is to short on rallies with a support level of 7812 and a resistance level of 8000 [4]. Sugar - The sugar main 2509 contract rebounded but then fell sharply. Overseas raw sugar price drops and the opening of the domestic sugar out - of - quota import profit window limited its rebound [6]. - Technically, it weakened. The strategy is short - term trading with a support level of 5827 and a resistance level of 5892 [6]. Bean粕 - The bean粕 main 2509 contract continued to decline. Although the USDA report was bullish for US soybeans, fast sowing in the US and large domestic soybean imports increased supply, weakening downstream demand [9]. - Technically, it was weak. The strategy is to short on rallies with a support level of 2865 and a resistance level of 2900 [9]. Bean一 - The bean一 main 2507 contract oscillated and fell. Stable domestic soybean prices due to less remaining beans at the grass - roots level were offset by weak downstream demand and increased imported soybean supply [10]. - Technically, it was weak. The strategy is to hold short positions with a support level of 4130 and a resistance level of 4175 [12]. Soybean Oil - The soybean oil main 2509 contract rose first and then fell. The USDA report increased US soybean oil demand in biofuels, but large domestic soybean imports and increased supply pressured the price [13]. - Technically, it weakened. The strategy is short - term shorting with a support level of 7770 and a resistance level of 7866 [13]. Corn - The corn main 2507 contract continued to fall. The Sino - US tariff reduction may increase imports, and rumors of state corn reserve auctions added bearish sentiment. Substitute pressure and weak downstream demand also contributed to the decline [15]. - Technically, it weakened. The strategy is short - term trading with a support level of 2335 and a resistance level of 2361 [15]. Pig - The pig 2509 contract oscillated at a low level. High inventory on the breeding side and weak demand after the May Day holiday led to an oversupply situation [17]. - Technically, it was weak. The strategy is to hold light short positions with a support level of 13800 and a resistance level of 13915 [17]. Egg - The egg main 2506 contract oscillated and fell. High egg - laying hen inventory and sufficient egg supply limited the price rebound [19]. - Technically, it faced downward pressure. The strategy is to hold light short positions with a support level of 2900 and a resistance level of 2933 [19]. Apple - The apple main 2510 contract gapped down. High apple prices in production areas and increased substitute consumption from competing fruits pressured the price [22]. - Technically, it was weak. The strategy is to hold light short positions with a support level of 7690 and a resistance level of 7800 [22].

Overall Summary of the Agricultural Products Sector - Cotton breaks through and rises, but weak downstream demand may limit the rebound space. Soybean meal drops significantly, and the supply is expected to increase. Palm oil continues to be weak with an expected increase in supply. Corn runs at a high level supported by multiple factors [1]. Variety Strategy Tracking Cotton - The main 2509 contract of cotton shows a third consecutive positive trend, breaking through and strengthening technically. Factors such as the upcoming Sino - US high - level meeting on tariffs, domestic macro - favorable policies, low imported cotton volume, and decreased port inventory support the rebound. However, weak downstream demand after the consumption peak season may resist the rebound. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 12875 and resistance at 13000 [1][2]. Soybean Meal - The main 2509 contract of soybean meal first rises then falls sharply, continuing the downward trend. The increasing national oil mill压榨量 strengthens the expectation of loose supply, pressuring the futures price. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 2880 and resistance at 2914 [3]. Palm Oil - The main 2509 contract of palm oil first rises then falls, with a continuous decline. The expected increase in production and inventory in Malaysia and the increase in China's procurement volume suppress the price. The technical situation remains weak. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 7812 and resistance at 7944 [5]. Sugar - The main 2509 contract of sugar rebounds, boosted by short - covering. The strong production and sales data in the domestic sugar market provide upward momentum. However, the technical weakness has not been reversed. The strategy is to hold short positions and observe whether it can break through the 5 - day moving average resistance, with support at 5808 and resistance at 5859 [8]. Soybean No.1 - The main 2507 contract of soybean No.1 continues to decline. The stable price of inland soybeans, light market trading, increasing imported soybean supply, and weak downstream demand suppress the price. The strategy is to lightly short - sell, with support at 4138 and resistance at 4188 [9][11]. Soybean Oil - The main 2509 contract of soybean oil rises then falls, with a volatile market. The improvement of soybean supply and the increase in oil mill operating rate will lead to an increase in supply and inventory, limiting the upward space. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 7752 and resistance at 7806 [12]. Corn - The main 2507 contract of corn oscillates and closes positively, running at a high level. Factors such as the exhaustion of grassroots surplus grain, strong willingness of traders to hold and support prices, the linkage between wheat and corn prices, and the intention of downstream enterprises to replenish inventory support the price. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 2370 and resistance at 2387 [14]. Live Pigs - The 2509 contract of live pigs first declines then rises, with a volatile trend and a downward trend remaining. High inventory in the breeding end, increased planned slaughter volume in May, and weak demand after the May Day holiday suppress the price. The strategy is to lightly short - sell at high prices, with support at 13820 and resistance at 14000 [17]. Eggs - The main 2506 contract of eggs first rises then falls, with a continuous downward trend. High egg - laying hen inventory, slow elimination of old hens, and weak demand after the May Day holiday lead to sufficient supply and slow inventory digestion. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 2875 and resistance at 2900 [20]. Apples - The main 2510 contract of apples rebounds slightly but remains weak. The slowdown in post - holiday sales, high - level long - liquidation on the futures market, and technical weakness continue. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - loss set, with support at 7765 and resistance at 7864 [21][23].