证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) [关键词： Table_Tag#业绩超预期 ] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 风险提示：供应链拓展风险，宏观经济风险 证券分析师 张良卫 执业证书：S0600516070001 021-60199793 zhanglw@dwzq.com.cn 京东集团-SW（09618.HK） 2025Q2 业绩点评：投入持续加大，主业业绩 超预期 买入（维持） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,084,662 | 1,158,819 | 1,237,771 | 1,307,251 | 1,388,740 | | 同比（%） | 3.67% | 6.84% | 6.81% | 5.61% | 6.23% | | 归母净利润（百万元） 同比（%） Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） 24.73% 35,200 | 35,200 | 47,827 35.87% 47,82 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is "Buy" with a target price set at HKD 157.2, maintaining the rating for the next six months [5]. Core Views - JD Group's Q4 2024 performance exceeded expectations with a revenue of CNY 347 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, driven by strong growth in both product and service revenues [1]. - The company has shown significant profit improvement, with a Non-GAAP net profit of CNY 11.3 billion in Q4 2024, reflecting a 34.5% year-on-year growth [1]. - The report highlights the successful execution of the share repurchase plan, with approximately 255 million shares repurchased, totaling around USD 3.6 billion, and a new plan to repurchase up to USD 5 billion in shares over the next 36 months [1]. - The report emphasizes the positive impact of government subsidies and the optimization of product categories, which are expected to drive sustainable growth in market share and order volume [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, JD Group achieved a total revenue of CNY 347 billion, with product revenue at CNY 281 billion and service revenue at CNY 66 billion, marking year-on-year growths of 14.0% and 10.8% respectively [1]. - The annual revenue for 2024 reached CNY 1,158.8 billion, a 6.8% increase from the previous year, with a Non-GAAP net profit of CNY 47.8 billion, up 35.8% year-on-year [1]. Retail Segment - JD Retail's revenue for Q4 2024 was CNY 307.1 billion, a 14.7% increase, with operating profit rising by 44.7% to CNY 10 billion [2]. - The electronics and home appliances category saw a revenue increase of 15.8% to CNY 174.1 billion, benefiting from the "trade-in" policy and service upgrades [2]. - Daily necessities revenue grew by 11.1% to CNY 106.8 billion, with third-party merchant orders increasing by over 14.7% [2]. Logistics Segment - JD Logistics reported a revenue of CNY 52.1 billion in Q4 2024, a 10.4% increase, with operating profit rising by 37.1% to CNY 1.8 billion [3]. - The collaboration with Taobao and Tmall logistics systems has enhanced external customer revenue, which now accounts for 69.6% of total revenue [3]. - The international expansion of logistics services is accelerating, with a significant increase in self-operated overseas warehouse space [3]. Future Outlook - Revenue projections for JD Group from 2025 to 2027 are adjusted to CNY 1,251 billion, CNY 1,331.2 billion, and CNY 1,409.5 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 8.0%, 6.4%, and 5.9% respectively [4]. - The Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for the same period are set at CNY 51.9 billion, CNY 57.4 billion, and CNY 62.8 billion, indicating a positive growth trajectory [4].