证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) [关键词： Table_Tag#业绩超预期 ] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 风险提示：供应链拓展风险，宏观经济风险 证券分析师 张良卫 执业证书：S0600516070001 021-60199793 zhanglw@dwzq.com.cn 京东集团-SW（09618.HK） 2025Q2 业绩点评：投入持续加大，主业业绩 超预期 买入（维持） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,084,662 | 1,158,819 | 1,237,771 | 1,307,251 | 1,388,740 | | 同比（%） | 3.67% | 6.84% | 6.81% | 5.61% | 6.23% | | 归母净利润（百万元） 同比（%） Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） 24.73% 35,200 | 35,200 | 47,827 35.87% 47,82 ...

Group 1 - The core categories of electronic products and home appliances are experiencing a recovery in growth, benefiting from the trade-in policy [1][3] - The company has adjusted its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 27.7 billion, 46 billion, and 52.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of -42%, +66%, and +15% respectively [1] - The company reported Q2 2025 revenue of 356.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate [2] Group 2 - The company's retail operating profit margin improved by 0.6 percentage points to 4.5%, while the logistics operating profit margin decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 3.8% [2] - New business losses were higher than expected, primarily due to continued investments in the food delivery segment [2][3] - The company repurchased approximately 2.8% of its outstanding common shares as of December 31, 2024, with a remaining repurchase amount of 3.5 billion dollars [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - JD Group's Q2 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 356.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates of 335.5 billion yuan [5] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q2 2025 was 7.4 billion yuan, a decline of 49% year-on-year, but also better than the expected 5.35 billion yuan [5] - The company has adjusted its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 27.7 billion, 46 billion, and 52.6 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of -42%, +66%, and +15% [4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - Revenue from product sales grew by 20.7% year-on-year, with core electronics and home appliances increasing by 23.4% [5] - Service revenue rose by 29.1%, driven by a 21.7% increase in platform and advertising services due to user traffic growth [5] - The retail operating profit margin improved by 0.6 percentage points to 4.5%, while logistics operating profit margin decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 3.8% [5] Business Strategy and Market Position - The company is benefiting from the "trade-in" policy for electronics and home appliances, which has significantly improved core business performance [4] - Continued investment in the food delivery business is expected to enhance user engagement and cross-purchase rates, contributing to long-term growth [6] - JD Group's share buyback program has repurchased approximately 2.8% of its outstanding shares, with a remaining buyback amount of 3.5 billion USD [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - For 2025, the projected revenue is 1,313.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.3% [7] - The projected diluted EPS for 2025 is 8.7 yuan, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 12.7 times [7] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 15.5% for the coming years [7]

在具体业务板块上，京东零售在今年二季度收入同比增长20.6%，达到3101亿元。电子、家用电器等产 品和日用百货商品收入分别同比上涨23.4%和16.4%，为1789.82亿元和1034.32亿元。 值得一提的是，今年二季度，京东包括外卖等的新业务爆发式增长，收入达到138.5亿元，去年同期为 46.4亿元，同比猛增198.8%。新业务的激进扩张一定程度上拉高了京东在履约、营销上的投入。在财报 期内，京东的履约开支从172亿元增长至221亿元，而营销开支同比上涨超一倍，从去年同期的119亿元 涨到270亿元，占总收入比例上升至7.6%。 北京商报讯（记者 何倩）8月14日，京东发布2025年二季度财报。数据显示，京东集团二季度总营收为 3567亿元，同比增长22.4%；归属于本公司普通股股东的净利润为62亿元，去年同期为126亿元；每股 美国存托股摊薄收益为4.15元，去年同期为8.19元。 ...