证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) [关键词： Table_Tag#业绩超预期 ] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 风险提示：供应链拓展风险，宏观经济风险 证券分析师 张良卫 执业证书：S0600516070001 021-60199793 zhanglw@dwzq.com.cn 京东集团-SW（09618.HK） 2025Q2 业绩点评：投入持续加大，主业业绩 超预期 买入（维持） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,084,662 | 1,158,819 | 1,237,771 | 1,307,251 | 1,388,740 | | 同比（%） | 3.67% | 6.84% | 6.81% | 5.61% | 6.23% | | 归母净利润（百万元） 同比（%） Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） 24.73% 35,200 | 35,200 | 47,827 35.87% 47,82 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical Theme Index (932069) has risen by 2.27% as of August 18, 2025, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as JD Health (06618) up 9.88% and Yiyang Sunshine (02522) up 8.90% [1] - The Hong Kong Medical ETF (159366) has increased by 1.93%, reaching a latest price of 1.64 HKD, and has seen a cumulative increase of 8.71% over the past week as of August 15, 2025 [1] - The average daily trading volume of the Hong Kong Medical ETF over the past month is 311 million HKD, with the latest fund size reaching a record high of 2.93 billion HKD [1] Group 2: Company Performance - JD Health reported a 22.7% year-on-year increase in sales revenue for pharmaceuticals and health products, reaching 29.3 billion HKD in the first half of 2025, driven by an increase in annual purchasing users exceeding 200 million and higher average spending per user [2] - The platform, advertising, and other service revenues for JD Health grew by 34.4% to 5.96 billion HKD, attributed to sustained growth in advertising revenue and an expanding commission scale supported by transaction growth [2] - JD Health launched over 30 innovative drugs online in the first half of 2025 and has seen a significant increase in the number of merchants on its platform, exceeding 150,000 compared to over 100,000 at the end of 2024 [2] Group 3: Industry Trends - The global AI medical investment and financing landscape is thriving, with significant breakthroughs in AI medical research, including FDA approval for the first AI wearable treatment device and advancements in AI drug development [3] - The Hong Kong Medical ETF (159366) is noted for having the highest CXO content in the market, focusing on internet medical services, CXO, and medical devices, and closely tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical Theme Index [3] - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical Theme Index includes 50 listed companies involved in medical devices, medical services, and pharmaceutical sectors, reflecting the overall performance of the medical sector within the Hong Kong Stock Connect [3] Group 4: Index Composition - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical Theme Index include WuXi Biologics (02269) at 14.58% and JD Health (06618) at 10.83%, collectively accounting for 56.9% of the index [4]

Group 1 - The core categories of electronic products and home appliances are experiencing a recovery in growth, benefiting from the trade-in policy [1][3] - The company has adjusted its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 27.7 billion, 46 billion, and 52.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of -42%, +66%, and +15% respectively [1] - The company reported Q2 2025 revenue of 356.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate [2] Group 2 - The company's retail operating profit margin improved by 0.6 percentage points to 4.5%, while the logistics operating profit margin decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 3.8% [2] - New business losses were higher than expected, primarily due to continued investments in the food delivery segment [2][3] - The company repurchased approximately 2.8% of its outstanding common shares as of December 31, 2024, with a remaining repurchase amount of 3.5 billion dollars [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - JD Group's Q2 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 356.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates of 335.5 billion yuan [5] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q2 2025 was 7.4 billion yuan, a decline of 49% year-on-year, but also better than the expected 5.35 billion yuan [5] - The company has adjusted its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 27.7 billion, 46 billion, and 52.6 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of -42%, +66%, and +15% [4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - Revenue from product sales grew by 20.7% year-on-year, with core electronics and home appliances increasing by 23.4% [5] - Service revenue rose by 29.1%, driven by a 21.7% increase in platform and advertising services due to user traffic growth [5] - The retail operating profit margin improved by 0.6 percentage points to 4.5%, while logistics operating profit margin decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 3.8% [5] Business Strategy and Market Position - The company is benefiting from the "trade-in" policy for electronics and home appliances, which has significantly improved core business performance [4] - Continued investment in the food delivery business is expected to enhance user engagement and cross-purchase rates, contributing to long-term growth [6] - JD Group's share buyback program has repurchased approximately 2.8% of its outstanding shares, with a remaining buyback amount of 3.5 billion USD [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - For 2025, the projected revenue is 1,313.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.3% [7] - The projected diluted EPS for 2025 is 8.7 yuan, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 12.7 times [7] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 15.5% for the coming years [7]

公司 1Q2025 营收同比增长 15.8%，Non-GAAP 归母净利润同比增长 43.4% 公司公布 1Q2025 业绩：1Q2025 实现营业收入 3010.8 亿元，同比增长 15.8%，实现 GAAP 归母净利润 108.9 亿元，同比增长 52.7%，实现 Non-GAAP 口径下归母净利润 127.6 亿元，同比增长 43.4%。 收入增长全线加速，推出出口转内销计划 得益于消费刺激政策以及公司平台生态的持续完善，公司各业务条线收入同 比增速环比 4Q2024 均有加速。商品收入方面，公司 1Q2025 整体商品收入 2423.1 亿元，同比增长 16.2%；其中家电 3C 类收入 1443.0 亿元，同比增 长 17.1%，公司在 1Q2025 与小米等数码产品品牌全面深化战略合作，打造 更智慧化、多元化的产品与更优质的购买与服务体验；日用百货类收入 980.1 亿元，同比增长 14.9%，公司在 1Q2025 线上首发莱珀妮、Crocs、Massimo Dutti 等多家时尚品牌新品，发挥平台优势。 2025 年 5 月 14 日 公司研究 收入加速增长，关注外卖业务投入 ——京东集团-SW ...