证券研究报告·海外公司点评·专业零售(HS) 名创优品（09896.HK） 2025 三季报点评：同店强劲收入同比+28%， TOP TOY 加速成长，期待 Q4 旺季表现 买入（维持） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 11,473 | 16,994 | 21,305 | 25,961 | 30,963 | | 同比（%） | 13.76 | 48.12 | 25.37 | 21.85 | 19.27 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,769 | 2,618 | 2,262 | 3,052 | 4,014 | | 同比（%） | 177.19 | 47.97 | (13.58) | 34.90 | 31.53 | | Non-IFRS 净利润（百万元） | 2,357 | 2,721 | 2,901 | 3,551 | 4,167 | | 同比（%） | 109.65 | 15.44 | 6.61 | 22 ...

恒指报25578.88点，涨1.42%，恒生科技指数报5484.46点，涨1.65%，专业零售、媒体及娱乐、软件服 务板块领涨，半导体、石油及天然气、工用运输板块领跌。网易、快手涨超5%，阿里巴巴涨超4%。 （AI生成） ...

Core Insights - Bath & Body Works reported a slight decline in Q3 2025 sales and profits, while also trimming its full-year outlook and introducing a new multi-year strategic plan [1][5] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, net sales were $1.59 billion, down 1% from $1.6 billion in Q3 2024 [1] - Earnings per diluted share decreased to $0.37 from $0.49 year-over-year [1] - Operating income fell to $161 million from $218 million, and net income declined to $77 million from $106 million in the same quarter of the previous year [2] - The reported figures included an $8 million pre-tax gain from the sale of a non-core asset [2] Future Guidance - For Q4 2025, net sales are expected to decline in the high single-digit range compared to $2.78 billion in Q4 2024 [2] - Q4 2025 earnings per diluted share are forecasted to be at least $1.7, down from $2.09 in Q4 2024 [2] - The full-year 2025 guidance has been revised to expect net sales to decline in the low single digits, compared to previous growth expectations of 1.5% to 2.7% against fiscal 2024 revenue of $7.3 billion [4] - Full-year 2025 earnings per diluted share are now projected to be at least $2.83, down from $3.61 in fiscal 2024 [4] - The company anticipates generating approximately $650 million in free cash flow for the full year [4] Strategic Initiatives - The CEO indicated that the third-quarter results were below expectations, prompting a lowered outlook for the remainder of the year due to current business trends and macro consumer pressures [5] - Bath & Body Works introduced a new strategic framework called the "Consumer First Formula," aimed at supporting long-term growth [6] - The first priority of the new strategy focuses on reinforcing product capabilities, with an emphasis on innovation in key categories such as body care, home fragrance, soaps, and sanitizers [7]

格隆汇11月20日｜专业零售商Bath & Body Works公布第三季度业绩，销售额同比下降1%至15.9亿美 元，低于分析师预期的16.3亿美元；调整后每股收益为35美分，亦低于分析师预期的39美分。该公司预 计2025财年净销售额将出现低个位数的下滑，而之前的预测是增长1.5%至2.7%；每股收益预期从3.35至 3.6美元下调至至少2.87美元，主要是因为美国消费者对特朗普政府不断变化的关税政策持谨慎态度，这 给购物预算带来了压力。公司还宣布了一项转型计划，并表示将在未来两年内节约2.5亿美元的成本。 ...

恒指报26595.97点，跌0.2%，恒生科技指数报5900.92点，跌0.25%，地产、汽车、一般金属及矿石板块 领涨，煤炭、专业零售、半导体板块领跌。小鹏汽车涨超15%。（AI生成） ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,183.08 points, down 1.14%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 2.0%, indicating a bearish trend in the Hong Kong stock market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The sectors leading the gains included gold and precious metals, oil and gas, and materials [1] - The sectors that experienced declines were information technology equipment, media and entertainment, and professional retail [1] Group 2: Company-Specific Movements - Kuaishou saw a significant drop of 5.65% [1] - NIO experienced a decline of 4.54% [1] - Bilibili fell by 4.01% [1] - Hua Hong Semiconductor and SMIC both dropped over 2% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong technology sector is currently in a phase of consolidation after a strong rise earlier in the year, and investors are looking for future momentum driven by liquidity improvement, industry catalysts, valuation advantages, and earnings expectations [1][4][9] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to improve liquidity in the Chinese stock market, which historically leads to upward trends in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [4] - AI capital expenditure is significantly increasing, with major cloud providers shifting their investments towards AI infrastructure, indicating a new growth cycle for AI [4][5] - The valuation of the Hang Seng Technology Index is currently attractive, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.65, which is below its historical average and significantly lower than that of the US Nasdaq [5][6] Group 3 - Earnings growth is anticipated to be a major driver for the market, with forecasts suggesting a double-digit growth rate for major Hong Kong indices, particularly a 42.6% growth for the Hang Seng Technology Index in 2026 [6][9] - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index is positioned as a key tool for capturing investment opportunities in the AI era, reflecting the overall development of the Hong Kong technology sector [9][10] Group 4 - The index includes leading companies across various sectors such as software services, semiconductors, and consumer electronics, which are actively transforming in the AI landscape [10][13] - The top five constituents of the index represent significant players in the AI industry, contributing to the core of the domestic AI supply chain [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong technology sector has entered a phase of consolidation after a strong rally, presenting a potential investment opportunity due to improving liquidity, industry catalysts, valuation advantages, and profit expectations [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's resumption of interest rate cuts has led to upward trends in both A-shares and H-shares, suggesting that foreign investors may benefit from increasing allocations to currently underweighted A-shares and H-shares [1] - The technology companies in Hong Kong are experiencing significant catalysts, particularly with a surge in AI capital expenditures [1] - There is a growing expectation of asset revaluation in China, with Hong Kong stocks showing a continued upward trend despite ongoing fluctuations, indicating that valuation levels remain relatively low [1] Group 2: Profit Expectations - Major Hong Kong indices are projected to achieve double-digit profit growth next year, with the Hang Seng Technology Index expected to show particularly strong growth [1] - The long-term high prosperity trend of the AI industry chain is anticipated to continue, with sustained high growth in AI-related business revenues [1] Group 3: Investment Tools - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Theme Index, with its unique composition and constituent stocks, is identified as a key tool for capturing investment opportunities in the technology sector [1] - The index includes leading stocks from various sectors such as software services, semiconductors, and media, reflecting the overall development of the Hong Kong technology sector [2] Group 4: ETF Products - The Silverhua Hong Kong Technology 30 ETF and its associated funds are designed to track the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Theme Index, potentially enabling investors to capitalize on the growth of the Hong Kong technology sector in the AI era [2]

Market Overview - On November 5, A-shares opened lower but rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index closing up by 0.05% and 0.17% respectively, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.15% [1] - The market turnover was 1.15 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 80 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Sectors such as Hainan Free Trade Port, ultra-high voltage, and charging piles saw strong performance, with over 16 billion yuan of net inflow into the power equipment industry [1] - Concepts like rare earths, optical modules, and semiconductors experienced significant declines [1] Company Performance - On November 5, Seres (赛力斯) listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming the first "A+H" luxury new energy vehicle company [2] - The stock price fell below the issue price on its first day, reaching a low of 118 HKD, nearly 10% lower than the issue price of 131.5 HKD, and closing down nearly 3% [2] - Seres' A-shares also declined, closing down over 4% [2] - The company raised a net amount of 14.016 billion HKD, marking the largest IPO for a Chinese car company to date and the largest global car company IPO in Hong Kong since 2025 [3] IPO Market Context - Seres' global offering consisted of 108.6 million H-shares, with 10% allocated for public offering, and the offering was oversubscribed by 133 times, raising over 170 billion HKD in financing [4] - In 2023, 83 new stocks were listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with 17 experiencing a drop on their first day, resulting in a 20% first-day drop rate [4] - Despite the challenges, the overall performance of new stocks in Hong Kong has been strong, with 13 stocks seeing first-day gains exceeding 100% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has awarded Aiyingshi (stock code: 603214) the highest "A" rating for its information disclosure work for the fourth consecutive year, reflecting the company's commitment to high-quality disclosures and robust internal governance [1][2] Group 1: Information Disclosure Evaluation - Aiyingshi received an "A" rating in the 2024-2025 information disclosure evaluation, with only 430 out of 2263 listed companies achieving this rating, indicating a less than 20% success rate [1] - The A rating signifies a high level of recognition from regulatory authorities regarding the company's information disclosure quality and investor relations management [1] Group 2: Governance and ESG Practices - The A rating is part of Aiyingshi's long-term commitment to transparent and compliant operations, which also includes recognition as a "Best Practice Case for Internal Control" by the China Association for Public Companies [2] - Aiyingshi ranks first in ESG ratings within the professional retail industry, showcasing its multidimensional excellence in governance [2] - The company's strong performance in information disclosure, internal control, and ESG practices creates a governance "moat," reinforcing investor trust and laying a solid foundation for long-term development [2]