消息面上，据大河报报道，19日，《鬼灭之刃》退票率从下跌趋势转为增长。18日至21日，该片退票率 从3.2%增长到7.6%。此外，《鬼灭之刃》的上座率出现大幅下跌，11月18日的上座率已不足3%。据猫 眼专业版数据，截至发稿，该片总票房达4.43亿元，预测票房5.91亿。花旗指，对猫眼娱乐而言，负面 情绪更多围绕于其11月14日引进的重磅影片《鬼灭之刃》。但作为最大的电影票务平台，猫眼仍存在上 行催化剂，包括电影《疯狂动物城2》与《阿凡达3》。 智通财经APP获悉，猫眼娱乐(01896)再跌超2%，截至发稿，跌2.18%，报6.73港元，成交额3350.08万港 元。 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on China Interactive Media & Entertainment Industry Overview - The focus is on the Chinese film industry, particularly the upcoming National Holiday box office performance during the 8-day holiday from October 1 to October 8, 2025 - A total of 11 movies are confirmed for release, compared to 8 movies in the previous year, indicating a growth in content availability Key Companies Mentioned - **Maoyan Entertainment**: Expected to benefit significantly from the holiday box office due to its involvement in the top four popular movies - **Enlight Media**: Set to release "Three Kingdoms" during the holiday - **Damai Entertainment**: Participated in "The Volunteers" and "Sons of the Neon Night" Core Insights and Arguments - The projected box office for the National Holiday is estimated to be between RMB 2.2 billion and RMB 2.5 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 5% to 19% [1][2] - Maoyan is positioned to capture market share in movie distribution, especially as the market rebounds [1] - The previous year's box office during the National Holiday was RMB 2.1 billion, which was a decline of 23% year-on-year, primarily due to a lack of major blockbusters [2][4] - The average ticket price is expected to decline year-on-year, similar to trends observed during the summer holiday, but potential subsidies from local governments may support movie consumption [2] Movie Pipeline and Popularity - The top four movies by Maoyan's popularity index include: 1. "A Writer's Odyssey 2" 2. "Panda Plan 2" 3. "The Volunteers" 4. "Row to Win" - Maoyan is a key producer/distributor for all four movies, indicating strong involvement in high-potential content [2][5] Financial Projections and Valuations - **Enlight Media**: Target price set at RMB 23.0 based on a P/E ratio of 28x for FY2025E EPS, reflecting a re-rating in the media sector [7] - **Damai Entertainment**: Target price of HK$1.4 based on a sum of the parts valuation, assuming a 40% net margin [9] - **Maoyan Entertainment**: Target price of HK$9.30 based on a P/E of 14x for FY2026E adjusted EPS, reflecting growth momentum [13] Risks Identified - **Enlight Media**: High risk rating due to potential box office performance falling below expectations, integration issues, and competition in TV variety shows [8] - **Damai Entertainment**: Risks include market share pressure, softer movie content performance, and intensified competition in ticketing [12] - **Maoyan Entertainment**: Risks include worse-than-expected box office results, tightening regulations, and reliance on strategic shareholders for traffic [14] Additional Insights - The increase in the number of movies released during the National Holiday suggests a recovery in the film industry, which could lead to improved box office performance compared to the previous year [2] - The participation of major players like Maoyan in popular films positions them favorably for capturing market share as consumer interest in cinema potentially rebounds [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 2.472 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.9%, with a notable performance in live events and a stable market share in ticketing services [1][2]. Revenue Summary - Entertainment content service revenue reached 1.209 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year [1]. - Online entertainment ticketing service revenue was 1.18 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 12.8% [1]. - Advertising services and other revenues decreased to 83 million yuan, down 17.3% year-on-year [1]. - The overall ticket volume in the market increased by 17% year-on-year, with the company's market share remaining stable [1]. Profit Summary - The net profit for the first half of 2025 was 179 million yuan, a decline of 37% year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit was 235 million yuan, down 33% year-on-year [1][2]. - The gross profit margin was 37.9%, reflecting a decrease of 15.4 percentage points year-on-year due to increased content costs and higher investments in live performances [2]. - Sales and management expenses decreased by 12.2% and 20.2% respectively, indicating ongoing cost reduction and efficiency improvement efforts [2]. Future Outlook - The film industry is expected to enter a new product cycle in 2025, with the company positioned to benefit from industry recovery [3]. - Upcoming film releases include titles such as "Assassination Novelist 2" and "Panda Project 2," which are anticipated to enhance revenue performance [2][3]. - The live performance sector continues to grow, with the company actively capturing market share [2][3]. Investment Recommendation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 4.598 billion yuan, 5.371 billion yuan, and 6.068 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13%, 17%, and 13% [3]. - Adjusted net profits are forecasted to be 472 million yuan, 671 million yuan, and 819 million yuan for the same years, reflecting significant growth [3]. - A target market value of 11 billion HKD is set, with a target price of 9.5 HKD based on a relative valuation method [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Maoyan Entertainment (01896.HK) [1][4] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 2.472 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%. The entertainment content service revenue was 1.209 billion yuan (YOY +18%), online entertainment ticketing service revenue was 1.18 billion yuan (YOY +12.8%), while advertising services and other income decreased to 83 million yuan (YOY -17.3%). The net profit was 179 million yuan (YOY -37%), and the adjusted net profit was 235 million yuan (YOY -33%) [1][4] - The report highlights that the film market has shown marginal improvement, and there is an expectation for the release of significant films and performances in the second half of the year [1][4] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 45.98 billion yuan, 53.71 billion yuan, and 60.68 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 13%, 17%, and 13% respectively [4][5] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 4.72 billion yuan, 6.71 billion yuan, and 8.19 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 52%, 42%, and 22% respectively [4][5] - The report indicates a decline in gross margin to 37.9% (YOY -15.4 percentage points) due to increased content costs and higher investment in performances [4][5] Market Performance - The report notes that the ticket sales volume in the first half of 2025 increased by 17% year-on-year, with Maoyan maintaining a stable market share [4][5] - The local performance segment saw a GMV growth of over 80% year-on-year, while overseas performances experienced a GMV increase of over 300% [4][5] Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming film releases and performance progress, with several anticipated films set to release in the latter half of 2025 [4][5] - The company is expected to benefit from a new product cycle in the film industry, with a positive outlook on industry recovery [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains its leading position in the entertainment content industry, participating in four of the top five films at the box office in the first half of the year, with a rich pipeline for the second half, including two major films scheduled for the National Day and New Year releases [1][2][4]. Group 1: Entertainment Content - The company has established itself as a top distributor, participating in the production and distribution of 29 domestic films and 9 imported films in the first half of the year, with a record high of 24 major releases [2][3]. - The company has a strong lineup for the second half of the year, with two major films confirmed for the National Day and New Year releases, and several other significant films awaiting release [2][3]. Group 2: Ticketing Business - The company continues to provide ticketing services for major music artists, achieving impressive results in the domestic market, while also expanding into local performance markets, with GMV growth exceeding 80% in categories like local opera, exhibitions, and stand-up comedy [3][4]. - The company has seen a remarkable increase in overseas performance GMV, with growth exceeding 300%, providing ticketing services for high-profile artists' tours [3][4]. Group 3: IP Derivative Business - The company has prominently mentioned its IP derivative business in its financial report for the first time, collaborating with "The King's Avatar 2" for film promotion and IP derivative linkage, indicating a strategic move towards expanding its IP-related offerings [1][4]. - The company aims to deepen its involvement in high-profile game IP films and popular domestic animation IP films, suggesting a future potential for scaling its IP operations [4]. Group 4: Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 375 million, 490 million, and 605 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 106.01%, 30.82%, and 23.36% respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22.57, 17.25, and 13.98 times [1][5].

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to report a decline in Non-IFRS net profit for 1H25, primarily due to underperformance in film ticket sales and lower-than-expected gross margins [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a revenue of 2.5 billion yuan for 1H25, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.3% [1]. - The expected Non-IFRS net profit for 1H25 is 219 million yuan, a decrease of 37.8% year-on-year, which is below market expectations [1]. - The company's gross margin for 1H25 is projected to be 39%, reflecting a year-on-year decline [2]. Group 2: Ticketing Business - The film ticketing business is expected to grow by 12%, while the live entertainment ticketing revenue is projected to remain flat due to fee impacts [1]. - The online film ticketing revenue for 1H25 is estimated at 1.006 billion yuan, showing an increase of 11.6% [1]. - The overall online entertainment ticketing revenue is expected to grow by 10% to 1.149 billion yuan [1]. Group 3: Film Production and Releases - The company has participated in several films for 1H25, including "Detective Chinatown 1900" and "Dumpling Queen," but their box office performances have been average, potentially leading to losses [2]. - Upcoming summer releases include multiple films, which are expected to contribute evenly to the company's profits [2]. - The company has a pipeline of films for future releases, suggesting a focus on improving box office performance [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Valuation - The company has revised down its 2025 box office forecast by 11% to 49 billion yuan due to industry volatility [2]. - The Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been reduced by 33.5% and 14.4%, respectively [2]. - The target price has been adjusted down by 17.6% to 8.4 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 5.1% [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive outlook for the Chinese film industry during the summer season, particularly with the anticipated success of upcoming films [1] - Cat's Eye Entertainment (01896) saw its stock rise over 4% in early trading, indicating market optimism, with a current price of 7.87 HKD and a trading volume of 31.53 million HKD [1] - Longjiang Securities reports that the box office forecast for the film "Nanjing Photo Studio" is expected to surge from 1.295 billion to 3.205 billion RMB, potentially becoming the first film to break 3 billion RMB since the 2025 Spring Festival [1] Group 2 - Citigroup notes that the first blockbuster of the summer season may have already emerged, which could boost industry sentiment, with Cat's Eye Entertainment positioned to benefit as the largest ticketing platform in China [1] - The report mentions that Cat's Eye Entertainment's films "The Lychee of Chang'an" and "The Stage" have improved in reputation, suggesting that their box office performance may continue to rise [1] - Upcoming films such as "Wang Wang Mountain Little Monster" set to release on August 2 are expected to further enhance market confidence and overall box office performance [1]