2025 年 12 月 19 日 破局与重构格局下，配置逻辑再演绎 ---2026 年铜期货年度行情展望 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 报告导读： 君 安 期 货 我们的观点：预计 2026 年铜价将保持坚挺状态，可能依然存在上升空间，主要因美联储降息将托底经济，且供需存在缺口。 从宏观上看，美联储货币政策持续宽松，流动性将边际回暖。从微观上看，精铜供需均存在结构性变化，但供需从 2025 年 的过剩转为 2026 年的缺口。 研 究 所 我们的逻辑：美国产业政策和技术革命等领域的投资对利率和原材料等成本不敏感，持续投资具备确定性。同时，美国通胀 已经从高位回落，维持美国高利率的必要性下降，给了美联储更多信心。基本面上，预计全球冶炼原料短缺，影响精铜产量， 使得精铜供应从过剩转为缺口。从供应端看，铜矿生产扰动较大，进口废铜增速放缓，导致精铜供应增速放缓。从消费端看， 新质生产力和新能源行业贡献铜消费增量明显。美国数据中心建设引领行业趋势，持续带动铜的新增消费量 ...

这是一场豪赌，赌注是两千亿元人民币，约合两百八十亿美元。 就在全球铜价高位震荡、地缘政治摩擦把供应链搞得人心惶惶的时候，中国东部的工业心脏——山东 省，突然把筹码推向了桌子中央。 他们不仅没有收缩防线，反而誓言要到2027年打造一个世界级的铜冶炼帝国。 甚至可以说，这是在一个最"不合时宜"的时刻，做出的一个最激进的决定。 疯狂扩张背后的尴尬账本 让我们先剥开那些宏大的叙事，看一眼最现实的账本。 山东的雄心壮志是建立在这样一个背景下的：中国已经是全球铜产业的绝对霸主。 我们吃下了全球近60%的铜需求，这一半以上的铜矿石都是在中国熔炉里变成精铜的。 路透社的调查甚至预测，等到2025年，中国精炼铜的产量份额能逼近全球的六成。 这听起来是不是很威风？掌握了全球一半以上的产能，理论上应该拥有绝对的话语权才对。 这听起来让人热血沸腾，毕竟"两千亿"这个数字本身就带着一股横扫千军的气势。但如果你是个懂行的 人，看到这则新闻的第一反应可能不是鼓掌，而是皱眉。 为什么？因为现在的铜冶炼行业，日子并没有表面上那么风光。 但现实总是喜欢打脸。这种规模优势的背后，隐藏着一个巨大的尴尬——我们有世界上最大的胃口，却 只有全世界8%的 ...

铜： 隔夜内外铜价冲高回落，国内精铜现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美国总统特朗普周二在白宫内阁会议 上表示，明年年初公布美联储新任主席，并在一场活动上暗示人选为哈塞特，市场认为鸽派代表人物哈 塞特若当选，将强化市场对鸽派押注，但货币刺激与通胀如何平衡则面临挑战。国内方面，关注即将召 开的中央经济工作会议。基本面方面，国内12月电解铜预估产量116.88万吨，环比增加5.96%，同比增 加6.69%，国内冶炼企业年底继续有冲产量的动作；需求方面，因铜价持续高位，终端订单有所放缓， 市场维系刚性采购需求。库存方面，LME库存增加2375吨至161800吨；Comex库存增加2351吨至391851 吨；SHFE铜仓单下降927吨至30568吨；BC铜仓单下降623吨至4879吨。美联储12月降息充分定价下， 宏观是否仍能维系乐观情绪未知，但从微观角度看，精矿短缺的故事支撑铜维系高估值，特别是CSPT 声明再次搅动国内精铜供给预期，但随着淡季来临，微观依然看不到需求的快速释放，因此价格能否持 续回升存在不确定性。 镍&不锈钢： 镍&不锈钢：隔夜LME镍跌0.91%报14740美元/吨，沪镍跌0.58%报117060元 ...

彭博社11月28日报道，智利国有矿业公司（ENAMI）副总裁IVAN MLYNARZ在上 海参加亚洲铜业周时表示，出于地缘政治考虑及智利精铜生产现状，ENAMI决定在北 部某已关停厂址建立一新精铜冶炼厂，目前厂方和融资方正在就铜矿加工最低价格进 行谈判。ENAMI将拥有项目所有产权，计划年加工精铜85万立方吨，近期已获环评许 可，尚待智利铜业委员会（COCHILCO）批准。加工厂建成后，当地私营铜矿企业年 精铜产量将达到150万立方吨。IVAN MLYNARZ希望该项目建设能在本届政府于明年3 月11日结束任期前开始。 （原标题：智利拟建新精铜冶炼厂） ...

Summary of Commodity Market Outlook and Key Insights Industry Overview - The report discusses the global commodity market outlook for 2026, highlighting a transition from surplus to balance, but not entering a super cycle [2][10] - Key commodities analyzed include oil, copper, aluminum, steel, agricultural products, and precious metals like gold [1][10][19] Core Insights and Arguments Commodity Market Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, global tariffs accelerated the restructuring of order, suppressing economic growth and leading to a sluggish commodity market [1][3] - The second half of 2025 saw improvements due to supply-side reforms and geopolitical risks driving price increases, resulting in supply-driven price premiums [1][3] Geopolitical and Economic Influences - Geopolitical tensions and resource protectionism are altering the supply curve of commodities, influenced by factors such as Middle Eastern production decisions, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and U.S.-China trade tensions [2][4] - New industries and emerging economies are driving demand, particularly through investments in AI, electrification, and renewable energy [2][4] Supply Challenges - Insufficient upstream investment is exacerbating supply tightness, particularly in oil and copper markets, with oil supply expected to tighten and Brent crude's breakeven price projected to be higher than current levels [5][10] - Copper supply is also under pressure due to rising disruption rates and declining ore grades, leading to upward price incentives [5][12] Agricultural Market Risks - Global weather patterns, particularly the potential for La Niña, could negatively impact agricultural yields, especially for soybeans, increasing the risk of production cuts [6][17] Infrastructure and Electrification - The development of new industries is significantly enhancing electrification levels, necessitating increased investment in grid infrastructure to avoid supply gaps [7][8] Green Transition and Pricing - The green transition and energy transformation are creating a "green premium," benefiting non-ferrous metals and certain agricultural products [8][9] Strategic Reserves and Inventory Management - The construction of global strategic reserves is likely to alter investment and inventory structures, with a trend towards regionalized inventory management emerging [9][10] Additional Important Insights - The outlook for the oil market in 2026 suggests a balance between supply and demand, with geopolitical risks remaining a concern [11][20] - The copper market is expected to see a 2.7% increase in demand in 2026, driven by electrification and energy transition [12] - The aluminum market faces production risks due to overseas power constraints, while the steel industry may experience oversupply despite improved exports [13][15] - The agricultural market is stabilizing after a two-year downturn, with expectations of reduced supply and improved export conditions for soybeans [17][18] - The precious metals market, particularly gold, remains attractive due to macroeconomic uncertainties and potential inflationary pressures [19][21] This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed overview of the current and future state of the commodity market, highlighting key trends, challenges, and opportunities for investors.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Grasberg copper mine mudslide event impacts refined copper supply, and global refined copper supply - demand contradiction will emerge. After the event, the global copper market will face a deficit of 111,000 tons in 2025 (concentrated in Q4) and about 211,000 tons in 2026. It is expected that the copper concentrate processing fee TC will be at a low level in Q4 2025 and 2026, the refined copper premium will gradually strengthen, and the copper price center may move up [3][56]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Indonesia's Copper Resources and Policy - **Rich Copper Resources**: Indonesia is the world's eighth - largest copper resource country, with copper reserves accounting for 3.15% of the global total. Its copper resources are mainly distributed in Papua's Grasberg mining area, North Sulawesi's Gorontalo Province, and West Sumatra [5][10]. - **Policy Improvement**: The evolution of Indonesia's mining laws, amendments, and new mining laws shows the continuous improvement of the mining development system, which promotes domestic mining investment and economic development. For example, the new mining law in 2023 aims at sustainable development, resource protection, and economic contribution, with adjustments in license regulations, environmental requirements, and tax systems [13]. - **Promoting Local Smelting**: The Indonesian government restricts raw material exports through laws and decrees to encourage foreign enterprises to build smelters locally. Although there were some relaxations in the past due to infrastructure and investment issues, the overall trend is to promote domestic smelting and value - added processing [16]. - **Low - cost Mining**: Indonesia's copper mines are mostly porphyry - type, with large reserves, large - scale open - pit mining, and rich gold content, resulting in low cash costs for copper mining. For instance, the cash cost of Grasberg copper mine in Q2 2025 was - $0.99 per pound [19]. - **Export Transformation**: Indonesia's copper concentrate exports are shifting to refined copper exports. In 2024, copper concentrate exports decreased by 129,400 tons (25% grade), while refined copper exports increased by 105,600 tons [20]. 3.2 Grasberg Copper Mine Mudslide Event - **Event Overview**: On September 8, 2025, a mudslide occurred in the Grasberg Block Cave underground mine, causing the suspension of all mining operations in the Grasberg minerals district. PTFI is investigating the cause, and the investigation is expected to be completed by the end of 2025. Production in Q4 2025 and 2026 will be significantly delayed, and it may return to the pre - event operation rate in 2027. PTFI has notified business counterparts of the force majeure situation [40][42]. - **Production Impact**: In Q4 2025, Grasberg copper mine production will be nearly zero, about 200,000 tons less than the original plan. In 2026, copper and gold production may decrease by about 35% compared to the original plan, with copper production dropping by about 270,000 tons to around 498,000 tons [48]. - **Supply - Demand Imbalance**: Assuming other conditions remain unchanged, after the Grasberg copper mine event, the global copper market will have a deficit of 111,000 tons in 2025 (concentrated in Q4) and about 211,000 tons in 2026. It is expected that the copper concentrate processing fee TC will be at a low level, the refined copper premium will strengthen, and the copper price center may move up [56].

Core Viewpoint - In September, domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease by 52,500 tons due to the cleanup of scrap copper tax policies and concentrated maintenance at smelters, leading to reduced crude copper output [1] Group 1: Production and Supply - The reduction in electrolytic copper production is attributed to the cleanup of scrap copper tax policies and maintenance at smelters [1] - After the implementation of U.S. tariffs, refined copper imports have declined, while non-U.S. regions are expected to increase supply by 120,000 tons monthly, raising net import pressure on China [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has risen to 85%, leading to expectations of a weaker dollar, which enhances the allocation value of copper as the consumption peak season approaches [1] - The continuous low position of copper holdings below 500,000 lots indicates a lack of market momentum for chasing prices, as funds exit or take profits [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - The combination of macroeconomic rate cut expectations and tightening supply supports copper prices, but weak funding conditions and excess supply overseas limit the extent of price increases, resulting in a short-term strong oscillation in copper prices [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Bullish [8] - Arbitrage: On hold [8] - Options: Short put @ 78,000 yuan/ton [8] Core View of the Report - In September, there are relatively large disturbances on the supply side, such as a decrease in the circulation of scrap copper and the intensive maintenance period of smelters. Although the downstream performance is not outstanding at present, the support effect of the power grid on demand still exists. Coupled with the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, copper prices are expected to remain relatively strong in September [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On September 1, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 79,670 yuan/ton and closed at 79,780 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous trading day's close. The night session opened at 79,640 yuan/ton and closed at 79,660 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a premium of 150 - 320 yuan/ton to the current 2509 contract, with an average premium of 235 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price range was 79,710 - 80,090 yuan/ton. The market trading atmosphere was weak, and the high copper price suppressed downstream purchasing willingness. It is expected that the social inventory in Shanghai will continue to decline at the beginning of the week, and the short - term premium will remain stable [2] Important Information Summary - Tariff: Trump said India proposed to reduce tariffs to zero, but it was too late. Treasury Secretary Besent said Trump might declare a national housing emergency this autumn, and the plan might include exemptions for building materials. The Supreme Court is expected to support Trump's tariff policy [3] - Economic data: The final value of the eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August rose to a three - year high of 50.7 from 49.8 in July, higher than the initial value of 50.5, and expanded for the first time since mid - 2022. Factory output and new order growth reached the fastest in nearly three and a half years [3] - European employment market: The eurozone's unemployment rate in July dropped to 6.2% from 6.3% in June, and the number of unemployed decreased by 170,000, matching the record low set in November 2024 [3] Mine End - Affected by the BHP tender result, many traders postponed quotes and considered adjusting the copper concentrate TC/RC to above - 40 dollars/dry ton. Some traders quoted - 40 dollars for clean ore and Peruvian mixed ore. Ivanhoe Mines lowered its 2025 copper production forecast by 28% to 37 - 420,000 tons, and Hudbay Minerals restarted the Snow Lake mine in Canada and is expected to reach full production in early September [4] Smelting and Import - Affected by Trump's tariff policy, traders plan to conduct large - scale deliveries of the COMEX copper futures main contract. In August, traders on the New York Comex planned to deliver 28,800 tons of copper under the September contract, the largest single - day delivery since April this year. The Comex copper inventory has reached the highest level in 20 years. Chile's copper production in July was 445,214 tons, with a slight increase month - on - month and year - on - year [5] Consumption - Last week, the operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises dropped to 68.12%, a decrease of 3.25 percentage points month - on - month. Raw material inventory decreased by 3.25% to 32,700 tons, and finished product inventory increased by 2.87% to 68,000 tons. In the wire and cable sector, the high copper price at the beginning of the week suppressed order release [6] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 950 tons to 158,875 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 1,212 tons to 20,200 tons. On September 1, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 132,100 tons, a change of 5,000 tons from the previous week [7] Tabular Data - The table shows data on copper prices, premiums and discounts, inventory, warehouse receipts, and arbitrage information from September 2, 2025, September 1, 2025, August 26, 2025, and August 3, 2025, including SMM 1 copper prices, spot premiums, LME and SHFE inventory and warehouse receipt data, and various arbitrage indicators [27][28][29]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Trump to exempt a 50% tariff on refined copper has led to a significant drop in copper prices, indicating a direct impact on the commodities market and potential implications for the Chilean economy [1] Group 1: Copper Prices - Following Trump's announcement, copper prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Comex) plummeted by 21.68%, reaching $4.37 per pound as of July 31 [1] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) also experienced a slight decline in copper prices, decreasing by 0.96% to $4.35 [1] Group 2: Chilean Currency Impact - The Chilean peso saw a minor increase against the US dollar, rising to 979.60, but analysts warn of potential depreciation pressures due to the historic drop in copper prices and the US-Chile interest rate differential [1] - There is a forecast that the peso may breach the 985 mark in the coming week due to these economic factors [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Suspended [5] - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [5] Core Viewpoints - The 50% tariff does not cover refined copper, leading to a significant decline in the Comex premium. If the over 250,000 tons of Comex copper inventory flows back into the market, it may impact copper prices again. Therefore, a wait - and - see approach is recommended for now [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On July 30, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 78,910 yuan/ton and closed at 78,930 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,640 yuan/ton and closed at 78,700 yuan/ton, down 0.47% from the afternoon close [1] - **Spot Situation**: The domestic electrolytic copper spot market has a tight supply pattern, with a significant strengthening of spot premiums. The SMM1 electrolytic copper is priced at 79,200 - 79,370 yuan/ton, with a premium of 130 - 200 yuan/ton to the current - month contract. The average premium is 165 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton from the previous day. It is expected that the short - term premium will remain firm [2] Important Information Summaries - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The White House announced a 50% tariff on semi - finished products like copper tubes and wires, exempting raw materials such as cathode copper and ores. This caused the COMEX copper price to plummet by up to 20% on the day, and the Comex - to - LME price difference has shrunk to about 5% [3] - **Mining End**: Glencore plans to cut about $1 billion in costs by the end of 2026 and has raised the long - term profit forecast for its commodity trading division from $2.2 - 3.2 billion to $2.3 - 3.5 billion. The trading division had a profit of $1.35 billion in the first half of the year [3] - **Smelting and Imports**: The Comex premium has weakened significantly due to the tariff exemption of refined copper, and it has recovered to about 5% of the LME price. If the over 250,000 tons of US copper inventory flows back into the market, it may impact copper prices [4] - **Consumption**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Due to the end of the month, downstream consumption had limited growth. However, due to some processing enterprises' rush to export, market demand was relatively stable, and downstream enterprises mainly made just - in - time purchases [4] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 225 tons to 136,850 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 1,890 tons to 19,973 tons. On July 28, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 120,300 tons, a change of 6,100 tons from the previous week [4] Data Tables - **Spot (Premium/Discount)**: The premium for SMM 1 copper (premium copper) is 165 - 180, for flat - copper is 150, for wet - process copper is 25, the Yangshan premium is 60, and LME (0 - 3) is - 52 [27] - **Inventory**: LME inventory is 136,850 tons, SHFE inventory is 73,423 tons, and COMEX inventory is 229,909 tons [27][28] - **Warehouse Receipts**: SHFE warehouse receipts are 19,973 tons, and the proportion of LME cancelled warehouse receipts is 15.20% [28] - **Arbitrage**: The spread between CU08 - CU06 (continuous third - near - month) is - 30, between CU07 - CU06 (main - near - month) is 0, CU07/AL07 is 3.83, CU07/ZN07 is 3.48, and the import profit is - 313 [28]