Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Trump to exempt a 50% tariff on refined copper has led to a significant drop in copper prices, indicating a direct impact on the commodities market and potential implications for the Chilean economy [1] Group 1: Copper Prices - Following Trump's announcement, copper prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Comex) plummeted by 21.68%, reaching $4.37 per pound as of July 31 [1] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) also experienced a slight decline in copper prices, decreasing by 0.96% to $4.35 [1] Group 2: Chilean Currency Impact - The Chilean peso saw a minor increase against the US dollar, rising to 979.60, but analysts warn of potential depreciation pressures due to the historic drop in copper prices and the US-Chile interest rate differential [1] - There is a forecast that the peso may breach the 985 mark in the coming week due to these economic factors [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Suspended [5] - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [5] Core Viewpoints - The 50% tariff does not cover refined copper, leading to a significant decline in the Comex premium. If the over 250,000 tons of Comex copper inventory flows back into the market, it may impact copper prices again. Therefore, a wait - and - see approach is recommended for now [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On July 30, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 78,910 yuan/ton and closed at 78,930 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,640 yuan/ton and closed at 78,700 yuan/ton, down 0.47% from the afternoon close [1] - **Spot Situation**: The domestic electrolytic copper spot market has a tight supply pattern, with a significant strengthening of spot premiums. The SMM1 electrolytic copper is priced at 79,200 - 79,370 yuan/ton, with a premium of 130 - 200 yuan/ton to the current - month contract. The average premium is 165 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton from the previous day. It is expected that the short - term premium will remain firm [2] Important Information Summaries - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The White House announced a 50% tariff on semi - finished products like copper tubes and wires, exempting raw materials such as cathode copper and ores. This caused the COMEX copper price to plummet by up to 20% on the day, and the Comex - to - LME price difference has shrunk to about 5% [3] - **Mining End**: Glencore plans to cut about $1 billion in costs by the end of 2026 and has raised the long - term profit forecast for its commodity trading division from $2.2 - 3.2 billion to $2.3 - 3.5 billion. The trading division had a profit of $1.35 billion in the first half of the year [3] - **Smelting and Imports**: The Comex premium has weakened significantly due to the tariff exemption of refined copper, and it has recovered to about 5% of the LME price. If the over 250,000 tons of US copper inventory flows back into the market, it may impact copper prices [4] - **Consumption**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Due to the end of the month, downstream consumption had limited growth. However, due to some processing enterprises' rush to export, market demand was relatively stable, and downstream enterprises mainly made just - in - time purchases [4] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 225 tons to 136,850 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 1,890 tons to 19,973 tons. On July 28, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 120,300 tons, a change of 6,100 tons from the previous week [4] Data Tables - **Spot (Premium/Discount)**: The premium for SMM 1 copper (premium copper) is 165 - 180, for flat - copper is 150, for wet - process copper is 25, the Yangshan premium is 60, and LME (0 - 3) is - 52 [27] - **Inventory**: LME inventory is 136,850 tons, SHFE inventory is 73,423 tons, and COMEX inventory is 229,909 tons [27][28] - **Warehouse Receipts**: SHFE warehouse receipts are 19,973 tons, and the proportion of LME cancelled warehouse receipts is 15.20% [28] - **Arbitrage**: The spread between CU08 - CU06 (continuous third - near - month) is - 30, between CU07 - CU06 (main - near - month) is 0, CU07/AL07 is 3.83, CU07/ZN07 is 3.48, and the import profit is - 313 [28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US imposing a 50% tariff on copper imports may lead to short - term adjustment risks for copper prices, and the US copper inventory may increase while non - US regions gradually become more relaxed. The end of the US restocking process is expected, and the previous non - US spot contradictions will gradually ease [10]. - Some Fed officials believe that there will likely be two interest rate cuts this year because the impact of tariffs on prices is more moderate than expected, which boosts market risk appetite [12]. - The tight supply at the mine end continues. The processing fees for copper concentrates remain at a low level, and supply disruptions in Peru support copper prices. Although the production of refined copper has increased slightly, demand is still weak, and inventory has accumulated [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The US plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting from August 1. The initial jobless claims in the US have declined for four consecutive weeks, reaching the lowest level in two months, but the continuing claims are still at the highest level since the end of 2021 [5]. - Some Fed officials believe that there will likely be two interest rate cuts this year, as the impact of tariffs on prices is more moderate than expected, which boosts market risk appetite. The non - US spot contradictions will gradually ease [5]. - As of July 4, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 43.43 dollars per dry ton, up 0.06 dollars per dry ton from the previous week. The processing fees for copper concentrates have been hovering at a low level, and supply disruptions in Peru support copper prices. The estimated output of electrolytic copper has decreased slightly, and demand is weak [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus Bullish Factors - Some dovish Fed officials have spoken out, boosting market risk appetite. The domestic social copper inventory accumulation is limited, and the copper concentrate processing fees remain at a low level [8]. Bearish Factors - The US imposing a 50% tariff on copper imports will be implemented on August 1. The short - term copper price has adjustment risks, and the previous non - US spot contradictions will gradually ease [9][10]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Supply - side Data** - China's copper ore and concentrate imports in May were 2.3952 million tons, a 17.55% month - on - month decrease and a 6.61% year - on - year increase. The supplies from Chile and Peru have both declined, and the supply tension is difficult to ease [13]. - As of July 4, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 43.43 dollars per dry ton, up 0.06 dollars per dry ton from the previous week. The processing fees for copper concentrates have been hovering at a low level, and supply disruptions in Peru support copper prices [17]. - In May, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1417 million tons, a 2.93% month - on - month increase and a 16.33% year - on - year increase. It is estimated that the output in the second quarter will reach 3.3913 million tons, a 16.13% increase from the second quarter of 2024 [19]. - China's scrap copper imports in May were 185,200 tons, a 9.55% month - on - month decrease and a 6.53% year - on - year decrease. The supplies from Thailand, Japan, and the US have all declined [22]. - **Demand - side Data** - As of July 10, the refined - scrap copper price difference was around - 1015 yuan per ton, which is beneficial for refined copper consumption [26]. - In June, the domestic refined copper rod output was 811,300 tons, a 3.51% month - on - month decrease and a 7.47% year - on - year increase. The output of recycled copper rods was 215,500 tons, a 7.11% month - on - month increase [30]. - In June, the domestic copper plate and strip output was 202,800 tons, a 3.47% month - on - month decrease, lower than the same period last year [34]. - In June, China's new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.268 million and 1.329 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 26.4% and 26.7%. China's total automobile exports were 592,000, a 7.4% month - on - month increase and a 22.2% year - on - year increase [38]. - **Inventory and Price Difference Data** - LME copper inventory has stopped falling and rebounded, and the risk of a short squeeze has decreased. The copper inventory in SHFE and COMEX has increased, and the bonded - area copper inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong has also increased [42]. - On July 4, the spot premium of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper turned into a discount, and the LME 0 - 3 spot also changed from a large premium to a discount [46]. 3.4后市研判 - With the upcoming implementation of tariffs, the short - term adjustment risk continues. Attention should be paid to the support at the 77,000 integer level [49].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of the U.S. imposing a 50% tariff on imported copper, leading to volatility in the global copper market and affecting prices on various exchanges [1][2]. Price Movements - As of July 10, COMEX copper futures rose to $5.59 per pound, with a weekly high of $5.89, marking a historical peak [1]. - Conversely, LME copper futures experienced a weekly decline of approximately 1.2%, closing at $9,734 per ton, rebounding from a low of $9,553 [1]. - The main copper contract in Shanghai fell by 0.39%, settling at 78,600 yuan per ton, with a cumulative weekly drop of about 2% [2]. Market Dynamics - The announcement of the 50% tariff by President Trump deviated significantly from market expectations of around 25%, leading to an increase in U.S. refined copper prices [2]. - The price spread between COMEX and LME copper expanded to $2,500 per ton, previously nearing $3,000, far exceeding the average stable spread of $300 [4]. - Traders are engaging in arbitrage by buying spot copper and shorting LME to lock in profits, causing LME and domestic copper prices to decline while COMEX prices continue to rise [4]. Inventory Changes - As of July 7, COMEX copper inventory reached 221,000 tons, up from less than 100,000 tons in February [5]. - LME copper inventory decreased sharply from 270,900 tons in mid-February to 97,400 tons, a reduction of over 64% [5]. - The increase in COMEX inventory is not keeping pace with the decrease in LME inventory, indicating potential supply chain issues [5]. Supply Chain Implications - The U.S. tariff policy may lead to a restructuring of the global copper supply chain, with potential cost increases in sectors like automotive and renewable energy [7]. - It is projected that U.S. copper imports could reach 1.36 million tons this year, significantly higher than last year's 900,000 tons, which may lead to increased inventory levels in COMEX [7]. - The global supply of refined copper is not currently short, with expectations of a weakening supply-demand balance by 2025 due to recovering copper mine supplies [7]. Domestic Market Outlook - If the copper tariff is implemented on August 1, there may be delays in the transportation of spot copper, limiting price support in the domestic market [8]. - The decline in Shanghai copper prices has alleviated some cost pressures on downstream processing companies, but price volatility remains a concern [8]. - Companies are advised to closely monitor the price differences between COMEX, LME, and Shanghai copper, particularly for risk management in trading positions [8].

Group 1: Market Reaction to Tariffs - The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on imported copper, causing significant volatility in the global copper market [1] - COMEX copper futures have seen a three-day increase, reaching $5.59 per pound, with a weekly high of $5.89 per pound, marking a historical peak [1] - LME copper futures experienced a weekly decline of approximately 1.2%, closing at $9,734 per ton, rebounding from a low of $9,553 per ton [1] Group 2: Arbitrage Opportunities and Risks - The price difference between COMEX and LME has widened to $2,500 per ton, significantly exceeding the average stable price difference of $300 per ton [2] - Traders are engaging in arbitrage by buying physical copper and shorting LME to lock in profits, leading to a divergence in price movements [2] - There is an expectation that the price difference will continue to expand until the tariff policy is fully implemented, with potential for increased market volatility [2] Group 3: Inventory Changes - As of July 7, COMEX copper inventory reached 221,000 tons, a significant increase from under 100,000 tons in February [3] - In contrast, LME copper inventory has sharply decreased from 270,900 tons to 97,400 tons since mid-February, a decline of over 64% [3] - The increase in COMEX inventory is not keeping pace with the reduction in LME inventory, indicating potential supply chain issues [3] Group 4: Industry Impact and Supply Chain Adjustments - The tariff policy is expected to restructure the global copper supply chain, with potential cost increases in sectors like automotive and renewable energy [4] - Major copper exporting countries like Chile may redirect their supplies to Asian and European markets, affecting global supply-demand balance [4] - The U.S. is projected to significantly increase copper imports, with estimates suggesting a rise to 1.36 million tons for the year, compared to 900,000 tons last year [5] Group 5: Long-term Supply and Demand Outlook - The global supply of refined copper is not currently short, but there are concerns about a weakening supply-demand balance by 2025 [5] - The anticipated influx of copper into the U.S. may lead to increased inventory levels at COMEX, exerting downward pressure on prices [5] - Domestic copper prices may face challenges due to shipping delays if tariffs are implemented as scheduled, limiting price support [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The IMF has lowered the global economic growth rate forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, and trade policy uncertainty will disrupt the global supply chain. The Fed may be cautious about the timing of interest rate cuts, while the ECB may end the easing cycle. China will continue to implement an expansionary fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year [4]. - In terms of supply, the global copper concentrate supply growth rate is expected to be only 1.7% in 2025 and further decline to 1.4% in 2026. The global refined copper supply growth rate will drop to 2% in 2025. In the second half of the year, domestic small and medium - sized smelters may face production cut risks, and the release of new global refined copper production capacity will be significantly limited [4]. - In terms of demand, copper has become a key strategic reserve resource in the context of global AI and electrification transformation. The global refined copper consumption growth rate is expected to be 3.7% in 2025, and the domestic growth rate will be 3.4% [4]. - The copper price center is expected to continue to rise in the second half of this year, with the risk of periodic high - level corrections due to overseas macro disturbances. The medium - to - long - term upward trend of copper prices remains unchanged. The main operating range of SHFE copper is expected to be 77,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper is 9,500 - 10,500 US dollars/ton [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Review of the First - Half Market in 2025 - In the first half of 2025, copper prices showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. In the first quarter, SHFE copper rose from a low of 73,000 to 83,000 due to supply concerns and macro - economic factors. In the second quarter, prices fluctuated due to trade policy uncertainties, and then rebounded after the Sino - US trade negotiation [11]. - Domestic copper inventory first increased and then decreased. The spot premium changed from discount to premium. In the second half of the year, domestic refined copper spot premium is expected to remain in the premium range, with the center of premium moving up [13]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 Global Trade Situation Eases, and the US Economy Faces Stagflation Risks - The IMF has lowered the economic growth forecasts of major economies in 2025. The Sino - US trade negotiation has reached a preliminary consensus, but the tariff measures after the 90 - day suspension period are uncertain. The US economy has the risk of stagflation, while the eurozone economy shows a weak recovery [15][16]. 2.2 The Fed's Interest Rate Cut Expectations Rise, and the ECB May Slow Down the Rate - Cutting Pace - The Fed may have 1 - 2 small interest rate cuts this year, possibly starting in September. The ECB cut interest rates in June. The future monetary policies of both central banks will be affected by trade policies and economic data [17][19]. 2.3 Strengthen the Domestic Circulation System, and the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Remains Moderately Loose - China's economy faced challenges in the first half of the year. The central bank implemented a series of measures to support the economy. China's economy showed resilience in the first half, and the economic structure is expected to continue to optimize in the second half [21][22]. 3. Copper Ore Supply Analysis 3.1 The Global Concentrate Shortage Exceeds Expectations, and Chinese Enterprises Actively Explore Copper Ore Resources - In the first half of 2025, both Chinese and foreign capital accelerated the development of copper resources. However, the output of major mines was affected by various factors, and the shortage of copper concentrates is expected to exceed market expectations in 2025 - 2026 [25][27]. 3.2 The Global Copper Concentrate Growth Rate in 2025 is Expected to Drop to 1.7% - The planned global copper ore supply increment in 2025 is 115.5 million tons, but the actual increment is expected to be 70 - 80 million tons, with a growth rate dropping to 3%. Considering major interference factors, the actual supply growth rate in 2025 is expected to be only 1.7% and further decline in 2026 [31][33]. 4. Refined Copper Supply Analysis 4.1 Domestic Refined Copper Production Will Slow Down in the Second Half of the Year, and the Annual Year - on - Year Growth Rate May Drop to 4.5% - In the first half of 2025, domestic refined copper output was high, but more than 30% of smelters cut production to some extent. The actual output increment may be significantly lower than expected, and the annual growth rate is expected to slow down to 4.5% [41][43]. 4.2 The Release of Overseas Refined Copper Production in 2025 is Very Slow - Overseas new refined copper smelting capacity in 2025 is only 62 million tons, and the actual output is quite limited. The actual increment is expected to be about 15 million tons [45][46]. 4.3 Refined Copper Imports Will Remain at a Low Level in the Second Half of the Year, and Copper Has Become a Strategic Resource in the Great - Power Game - From January to May 2025, China's refined copper imports decreased year - on - year. In the second half of the year, imports are expected to remain at 25 - 28 million tons per month, and the annual imports will drop significantly compared with last year [48][49]. 4.4 Domestic Scrap Copper Supply is Generally Stable, and Southeast Asia May Fill the Gap in US Scrap Copper Imports - From January to May 2025, China's scrap copper imports decreased slightly year - on - year. The supply of scrap copper is expected to remain stable in the second half of the year, with Southeast Asian imports filling the gap left by the US [66][69]. 4.5 LME Inventories Plummeted by More Than 70% in the First Half of the Year, and the Tight - Balance Reality Has Lowered the Global Inventory Center - As of June 27, global visible inventories decreased significantly. LME inventories are at a low level with a risk of squeezing, while COMEX inventories are rising. Domestic inventories are expected to remain low in the second half of the year [73][75]. 5. Refined Copper Demand Analysis 5.1 This Year's Grid Investment Scale is Expected to Exceed 800 Billion, and the New UHV Grid System is Upgrading at an Accelerated Pace - The planned grid investment in 2025 is expected to reach 825 billion, with an increase of 220 billion compared with 2024. The copper consumption growth rate in grid investment is expected to be 3 - 4% [77]. 5.2 The Real Estate Market is Bottoming Out, and the Real Estate Regulation Policies are Intensifying - The real estate market showed a decline in the first five months of 2025, but the price decline margin narrowed. The market is expected to gradually recover in the second half of the year, with a slight decline in copper consumption growth rate [78][80]. 5.3 The "Two New" Policies Drive the Accelerated Production and Sales of Air - Conditioners - From January to May 2025, air - conditioner production and sales increased year - on - year. However, due to various factors, the production scale may be adjusted in the third quarter, and the export may decline [81][82].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices retreated from their highs. Trump's plan to impose tariffs on countries without trade agreements and strong non - farm payrolls in the US led to concerns, a rebound in the US dollar, and a cooling of the expectation of early interest rate cuts this year. The increase in LME inventory eased the squeeze - out sentiment. Fundamentally, overseas concentrate remained tight, and the low domestic inventory provided support for copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will correct to confirm support in the short term [2][3][8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - LME copper decreased from $9,879/ton on June 27th to $9,852/ton on July 4th, a decline of 0.27%. COMEX copper dropped from 512.5 cents/pound to 506.25 cents/pound, a decrease of 1.22%. SHFE copper fell from 79,920 yuan/ton to 79,730 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.24%. International copper decreased from 71,250 yuan/ton to 70,990 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.36%. The LME spot premium dropped from $240.67/ton to $95.35/ton, a decrease of 60.38%. The Shanghai spot premium increased from 110 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton [4] - Total inventory increased from 445,288 tons on June 27th to 465,300 tons on July 4th, a rise of 4.49%. LME inventory increased by 4,000 tons (4.38%), COMEX inventory increased by 11,673 short tons (5.58%), SHFE inventory increased by 3,039 tons (3.73%), and Shanghai bonded - area inventory increased by 1,300 tons (2.06%) [7] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Copper prices retreated from highs due to Trump's tariff plan, strong non - farm payrolls, and an increase in LME inventory. Fundamentally, overseas concentrate remained tight, and the low domestic inventory provided support. The total global inventory rebounded, which restricted the upward movement of copper prices [8] - Macroscopically, Trump's tariff plan raised market concerns. Strong non - farm payrolls boosted the US dollar and dampened the metal market. The US manufacturing industry was in a downturn with inflation risks. China's central bank maintained a moderately loose monetary policy [9] - In terms of supply and demand, the spot TC remained at - 44 dollars/ton. Some mines in Peru faced road blockades, and domestic refined - copper production was restricted. Demand from the power grid and new - energy vehicles was stable, and the domestic market was in a tight - balance state [10] 3. Industry News - In May, Chile's copper production reached 486,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%. The country approved a law to shorten the mining project approval time [12] - Mines in Peru, such as Las Bambas and Constancia, faced road blockades by non - regular miners, interrupting concentrate transportation [13] - The Cobre Panama copper mine in Panama has shipped over 33,000 tons of copper concentrate, but the hope of resuming mining this year is slim [14] - The processing fee for 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China increased. The transaction volume in the East China market improved slightly, while that in the South China market did not improve significantly. The operating rate of refined - copper rod enterprises is expected to decline in mid - July [15] 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the trends of copper prices, inventory, premiums, spreads, and other indicators, including the trends of LME copper price, LME inventory, global visible inventory, etc [19][22][26][30][36][42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The mid-term investment logic for the steel industry is centered around the concept of "anti-involution," which is expected to improve profitability [10][15]. - Despite some investors questioning the sustainability of the "anti-involution" theme, the report argues that it is a key driver for profit improvement in the steel sector [10][15]. - The report anticipates a shift in the iron ore supply side dynamics, which will further reinforce the mid-term investment logic of "anti-involution" in the steel industry [10][15][16]. Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report highlights the importance of focusing on stable profit and high dividend-paying segments within the electrolytic aluminum sector [9]. - It suggests monitoring companies with high gross profit elasticity per ton of steel, such as Sansteel Minmetals, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel [10]. Steel Industry Analysis - The report indicates that steel demand is better than expected, with a notable increase in rebar consumption [17]. - Total steel inventory is expected to decline further due to the "anti-involution" measures [24]. - Profit margins for long and short process rebar steel are projected to continue expanding [28]. - Steel prices are likely to rise further, with the rebar price showing a significant increase [34]. New Energy Metals - The report notes a substantial year-on-year increase in lithium production, indicating a positive outlook for lithium prices [38]. - The demand for new energy vehicles remains strong, with significant growth in production and sales [42]. Industrial Metals - The report observes a decrease in electrolytic aluminum inventory, suggesting potential price increases [56]. - The global refined copper production is slightly better than expected, with a year-on-year increase [59]. Other Notable Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side reforms in the steel industry, particularly in reducing overcapacity and improving efficiency [16]. - It highlights the role of state-owned enterprises in leading the charge against involutionary competition within the steel sector [16].