Core Viewpoint - The online music industry is transitioning from a copyright-driven model to an algorithm-driven era, reshaping platform dynamics and user engagement [6][18]. Group 1: Historical Development - The initial phase of China's digital music industry was characterized by disorder, dominated by piracy and unauthorized content, with platforms like QQ Music and KuGou Music relying on user-uploaded content [8][9]. - The introduction of regulatory measures in 2015 led to significant content removal, marking the beginning of a copyright governance era, with over 2.2 million songs taken down by major platforms [11][9]. - The competitive landscape shifted as Tencent Music consolidated its platforms and established a dual-monopoly with NetEase Cloud Music, focusing on stable copyright partnerships and user retention [17][15]. Group 2: Platform Competition - Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music adopted different strategies: Tencent focused on traffic synergy and product differentiation, while NetEase emphasized community engagement and user-generated content [14][15]. - By 2020, Tencent Music reported a 56% increase in music subscription revenue, reaching 5.56 billion yuan, while NetEase Cloud Music faced a net loss of nearly 3 billion yuan despite generating 4.9 billion yuan in revenue [15][17]. Group 3: Emergence of New Competitors - The entry of Douyin with its "Soda Music" app disrupted the market by leveraging algorithm-driven content distribution, contrasting with traditional music apps that relied on user-initiated searches [19][20]. - By September 2025, Douyin's music products showed significant user growth, with "Tomato Listening" and "Soda Music" achieving 92.4% and 90.7% year-on-year growth, respectively, while Tencent's platforms experienced declines [20][22]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The digital music market is at a crossroads, facing the choice between strengthening content barriers through libraries and subscriptions or adopting algorithm-driven models for user engagement [24]. - The competition dynamics have shifted, with algorithmic recommendations becoming a key factor in user acquisition and retention, challenging the traditional value chain of music distribution [24][22].

Core Insights - The traditional growth logic of online music platforms, centered around "paid" and "copyright," is showing signs of instability as Tencent Music's growth stabilizes and NetEase Cloud Music experiences stagnation in revenue growth [1][2] - The industry appears to be entering a "next problem cycle," with ByteDance's free music platforms rapidly gaining user engagement, leading to a clear "cross curve" where mainstream paid platforms are slowing down while free platforms are surging [1][8] Tencent Music Performance - Tencent Music reported a total revenue of 84.6 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, marking a new high since last year [2] - The adjusted net profit reached 24.1 billion yuan, with online music service revenue growing by 27.2% to 69.7 billion yuan [2][4] - Online music paying users increased by 5.6% year-on-year to 125.7 million, with ARPPU rising from 10.8 yuan to 11.9 yuan, a growth of 10.2% [4] User Engagement Trends - Despite strong revenue figures, Tencent Music's online music mobile MAU declined by 4.3% year-on-year to 551 million, marking the 16th consecutive quarter of decline [5] - The growth of paying users is slowing, with a noticeable decrease in the net increase of paying users since Q2 2024, leading to a negative market reaction with a nearly 13% drop in stock price post-earnings report [5][7] NetEase Cloud Music Performance - NetEase Cloud Music reported a net revenue of 2.0 billion yuan (approximately 275.9 million USD) in Q3 2025, a decline of 1.8% compared to the same period last year [5] - The gross profit for Q3 was 655.2 million yuan, remaining relatively stable year-on-year [5] Industry Challenges - A common issue for both platforms is the slowing subscription growth, indicating that the traditional "copyright barrier + library scale" logic is no longer sufficient for high growth [7] - High copyright costs and a slowdown in the addition of premium content, combined with fragmented listening habits among younger users, are diminishing the persuasive power of library differentiation [7] Rise of Free Music Platforms - ByteDance's free music platforms, such as Soda Music and Tomato Listening, are rapidly gaining traction, with Soda Music's MAU growing from 6 million to 120 million in just three years, achieving a year-on-year growth rate of 90.7% [10][12] - The user base of Tencent's KuGou and QQ Music has seen a decline, with significant user migration to Soda Music, which has captured over 17 million users from Tencent Music [12] Strategic Shifts - The competition is shifting from a focus on paid platforms to a battle for user attention, with free platforms leveraging algorithm-driven recommendations to attract users who are less sensitive to copyright and payment [14][15] - Tencent Music is exploring global partnerships and expanding its content supply system while launching a simplified music service targeting students and light users to counter the impact of ByteDance's free offerings [15][19] Conclusion - The music industry is transitioning from a "paid model competition" to a "attention model competition," indicating a significant structural change driven by the rise of free music platforms [20][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the media industry as of July 28, 2025 [6] Core Insights - The music industry is expected to transition from a paid growth model to a dual growth model of traffic and payment, driven by the expansion of audio content and refined operations of fan economy [4][10] - The resilience of streaming music against macroeconomic headwinds is highlighted, with a projected CAGR of 22% for China's streaming music industry from 2021 to 2024, significantly outpacing retail sales growth [9][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding content pools to shift the music market from a stock game to a growth game, with Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music both enhancing their content offerings [9][10] Summary by Sections 1. Emotional Value Driving High Growth in Online Music Platforms - China's online music platforms are projected to reach revenues of 27.1 billion in 2024, reflecting a 25% year-on-year growth [18][19] - The emotional value derived from music consumption is increasingly recognized, with a shift towards subscription models providing significant psychological benefits to users [20] 2. Traffic: Copyright Expansion Expected to Drive Growth - The overall DAU for the music industry is expected to reach 183.73 million in 2024, with a 2% year-on-year increase [22] - Tencent Music's DAU has been declining, but the acquisition of Himalaya is anticipated to reverse this trend by introducing long audio users [24][41] - ByteDance's platforms have seen significant DAU growth, with a 100% increase in the first half of 2025 [26] 3. Payment: Expansion of Rights Driving Payment Increases - The report notes a significant increase in the proportion of songs available to VIP members, with QQ Music's share rising from 38% to 95% and NetEase Cloud Music's from 4% to 48% [48][49] - The introduction of SVIP memberships is expected to enhance ARPPU, with Tencent Music's acquisition of SM Entertainment and Himalaya providing additional content [50][51] 4. Cost: Operational Leverage and AI Expected to Optimize Margins - The report discusses how the management of top-tier copyrights is improving, leading to increased gross margins for music platforms [9] - AI is expected to decentralize music production, further optimizing margins [9] 5. Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests focusing on Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music due to their strategic acquisitions and content expansions, which are expected to drive user growth and payment increases [4][13]

Core Viewpoint - The audio industry is undergoing a phase of consolidation driven by the importance of scale in the content sector, with free business models demonstrating a strong ability to attract users and traffic, potentially breaking market size limits [1][4][25] Group 1: Company Developments - Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) plans to acquire Ximalaya for $2.4 billion, with the agreement potentially reached in the coming weeks [1] - TME's online music service revenue increased by 25.5% year-on-year, accounting for over 75% of total revenue, highlighting its growth strategy focused on online music [5][6] - TME's monthly active users for online music services have shown a decline from 620 million in 2022 to 570 million in 2024, indicating challenges in user retention [7] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The audio market has seen a lack of platform-level companies, with many players reverting to content production rather than platform development [1][4] - The audio industry faces a growth ceiling due to high content production costs and the uncertainty of monetization, leading to a trend where platforms must scale to survive [4][19] - The overall user base for online audio has stagnated at 335 million, with a notable decline in usage time from 58 minutes in 2020 to 25 minutes [22][24] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Ximalaya, despite facing challenges in commercialization and high content costs, boasts a significant user base of 303 million monthly active users, capturing 60% of mobile listening time in China [11][18] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou capturing market share from traditional audio live streaming services [8][20] - The trend of free models in content consumption has proven effective in other sectors, suggesting a potential for similar disruption in the audio market [25][26]