以下文章来源于斑马消费 ，作者陈碧婷 斑马消费 . 寻找泛消费领域的斑马企业 来源丨 斑马消费（ID:banmaxiaofei） 作者丨陈碧婷 图源丨豆包AI 在线音乐行业，正在走出一个漫长的周期。从平台格局到商业模式，从内容分发到用户留存，这场由 版权驱动的旧秩序，正在被算法与行为数据重构。 数字音乐市场在过去十几年里完成了从盗版野蛮生长到正版平台化竞争的转折。但随着抖音以汽水音 乐为代表的搅局者入局，一个算法主导下的后版权时代也正在加速显形。 草莽时期，"神仙"难下手 中国的数字音乐产业最初处于无序发展阶段，整个市场被盗版和未经授权的内容主导。彼时的主流音 乐平台，包括千千静听、酷狗音乐、百度 MP3 等，普遍采用 P2P 搜索与聚合方式构建曲库。这些 平台依赖用户上传和互联网抓取构建音乐数据库，并通过广告或客户端推广获得收入。 以虾米音乐为例，公开资料显示，其初期以用户上传为主，强调编辑打榜和社区推荐，曲库大多由用 户贡献。用户对"免费听歌"的预期长期固化，也缺乏对内容付费的基本认知。 这一阶段的盈利困境同样反映在新兴平台上。网易云音乐于 2013 年正式上线，初期在无版权积累基 础下，主要依赖广告联盟 ...

在传统在线音乐平台的增长逻辑里，"付费"、"版权"一直是最稳健、最可预测的商业引擎。但今年三季报的信号正在松动这一共识：腾讯音乐增速趋稳、 多项核心指标到达平台期；网易云音乐则陷入营收增长停滞。 这些变化或许并不只是单个平台的阶段性波动，而是音乐行业整体踏入了"下一个问题周期"。同时期内，字节系的汽水音乐和番茄畅听音乐版则以更激进 的增长速度不断蚕食用户时长，让今年行业内首次出现一条清晰的"交叉曲线"——主流付费平台增长放缓，免费入口以更快的速度向上突破。 竞争版图因此出现新的裂缝，并在被重新书写。 主流平台的增长触顶： 三季报释放的行业级信号 从营收数据看，腾讯音乐在第三季度依旧维持着行业头部的稳健表现。 财报显示，腾讯音乐三季度总营收达84.6亿元，同比增长20.6%，创去年同期以来的新高；调整后净利润24.1亿元，其中在线音乐服务收入以27.2%的增速 冲至69.7亿元。 但在强势数字背后，更关键的指标正在释放拐点信号。 用户付费表现依然稳固。在线音乐付费用户同比增长5.6%至1.257亿，ARPPU从10.8元升至11.9元，同比增长10.2%。内容与平台的"一体两翼"策略仍在发 挥作用，国际唱片合作 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the media industry as of July 28, 2025 [6] Core Insights - The music industry is expected to transition from a paid growth model to a dual growth model of traffic and payment, driven by the expansion of audio content and refined operations of fan economy [4][10] - The resilience of streaming music against macroeconomic headwinds is highlighted, with a projected CAGR of 22% for China's streaming music industry from 2021 to 2024, significantly outpacing retail sales growth [9][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding content pools to shift the music market from a stock game to a growth game, with Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music both enhancing their content offerings [9][10] Summary by Sections 1. Emotional Value Driving High Growth in Online Music Platforms - China's online music platforms are projected to reach revenues of 27.1 billion in 2024, reflecting a 25% year-on-year growth [18][19] - The emotional value derived from music consumption is increasingly recognized, with a shift towards subscription models providing significant psychological benefits to users [20] 2. Traffic: Copyright Expansion Expected to Drive Growth - The overall DAU for the music industry is expected to reach 183.73 million in 2024, with a 2% year-on-year increase [22] - Tencent Music's DAU has been declining, but the acquisition of Himalaya is anticipated to reverse this trend by introducing long audio users [24][41] - ByteDance's platforms have seen significant DAU growth, with a 100% increase in the first half of 2025 [26] 3. Payment: Expansion of Rights Driving Payment Increases - The report notes a significant increase in the proportion of songs available to VIP members, with QQ Music's share rising from 38% to 95% and NetEase Cloud Music's from 4% to 48% [48][49] - The introduction of SVIP memberships is expected to enhance ARPPU, with Tencent Music's acquisition of SM Entertainment and Himalaya providing additional content [50][51] 4. Cost: Operational Leverage and AI Expected to Optimize Margins - The report discusses how the management of top-tier copyrights is improving, leading to increased gross margins for music platforms [9] - AI is expected to decentralize music production, further optimizing margins [9] 5. Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests focusing on Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music due to their strategic acquisitions and content expansions, which are expected to drive user growth and payment increases [4][13]

Core Viewpoint - The audio industry is undergoing a phase of consolidation driven by the importance of scale in the content sector, with free business models demonstrating a strong ability to attract users and traffic, potentially breaking market size limits [1][4][25] Group 1: Company Developments - Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) plans to acquire Ximalaya for $2.4 billion, with the agreement potentially reached in the coming weeks [1] - TME's online music service revenue increased by 25.5% year-on-year, accounting for over 75% of total revenue, highlighting its growth strategy focused on online music [5][6] - TME's monthly active users for online music services have shown a decline from 620 million in 2022 to 570 million in 2024, indicating challenges in user retention [7] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The audio market has seen a lack of platform-level companies, with many players reverting to content production rather than platform development [1][4] - The audio industry faces a growth ceiling due to high content production costs and the uncertainty of monetization, leading to a trend where platforms must scale to survive [4][19] - The overall user base for online audio has stagnated at 335 million, with a notable decline in usage time from 58 minutes in 2020 to 25 minutes [22][24] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Ximalaya, despite facing challenges in commercialization and high content costs, boasts a significant user base of 303 million monthly active users, capturing 60% of mobile listening time in China [11][18] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou capturing market share from traditional audio live streaming services [8][20] - The trend of free models in content consumption has proven effective in other sectors, suggesting a potential for similar disruption in the audio market [25][26]