证券研究报告·公司点评报告·通用设备 [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2025 年 10 月 28 日 证券分析师 周尔双 执业证书：S0600515110002 021-60199784 zhouersh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李文意 执业证书：S0600524080005 liwenyi@dwzq.com.cn 新莱应材（300260） 2025 年三季度报点评：Q3 营收稳健增长，看 好公司持续受益于半导体&液冷双增长极 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 2,711 | 2,849 | 3,018 | 3,422 | 3,989 | | 同比（%） | 3.49 | 5.08 | 5.93 | 13.40 | 16.57 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 235.90 | 226.34 | 254.72 | 314.03 | 414.73 | | ...

新莱应材 20251027 摘要 公司前三季度营收同比增长 4%，但利润同比下降 25%。食品业务贡献 4.8 亿元收入，保持稳定增长；半导体业务贡献 2.8 亿元，增速最快但 毛利率下降；医药业务贡献 8,000 万元，面临市场竞争和毛利率下滑。 公司重点布局气体阀门和真空阀门，真空阀门已在国内头部客户实现批 量出货，与 VAT 等国际品牌竞争。气体系统产品在调压阀、隔膜阀等领 域取得突破，受益于国产替代趋势。 毛利率下滑主要由于固定资产投入增加、人员成本上升以及中美关系影 响导致海外高毛利客户减少。公司预计未来几年可能面临价格竞争压力， 将加强研发和技术布局。 预计四季度各板块延续前三季度趋势。食品板块保持稳定增长，半导体 板块扩产计划不变，医药板块短期内难见转折。公司将优化研发能力和 技术布局应对市场变化。 半导体新品交付周期约为一个季度，三季度半导体业务收入为 2.8 亿元， 较上半年 4.4 亿元有显著增长，预计四季度环比仍将保持增长态势。 公司计划 2026 年开工建设新产能，预计 2027 年底或 2028 年初投产， 达产后产能约为 15 亿元，爬坡期约为 4 年，到 2031 年前后基本满产 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from dual growth in the semiconductor and liquid cooling sectors [1] - The company's revenue for H1 2025 was 1.409 billion, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.6%, with the food business showing a 5.4% increase [7] - The company has made significant progress in domestic substitution and is optimizing its customer structure in the semiconductor field [7] - The report has adjusted the net profit forecast for 2025-2027 to 255 million, 314 million, and 415 million respectively, reflecting a dynamic PE of 62, 50, and 38 times [1][7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 2.711 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 3.49% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 235.9 million, down 31.58% year-on-year [1] - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 24.5%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The operating cash flow for H1 2025 improved significantly, reaching 130 million, a year-on-year increase of 41.8% [7] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 38.73 yuan, with a market capitalization of 15.794 billion [5] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is currently at 66.95 [5] - The company has a total asset-liability ratio of 60.01% [6]

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint highlights the unprecedented removal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by Trump, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential for more "Trump-aligned" appointees, which could lead to increased expectations for interest rate cuts in the future [1] - Following the removal announcement, market reactions included rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices, while the U.S. dollar index declined, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards risk assets [1] Fixed Income - The report indicates a cautious approach in the convertible bond market, suggesting a reduction in exposure to high-priced targets while increasing allocations to ETFs to balance risks [2][3] - The 10-year government bond yield increased from 1.745% to 1.785%, reflecting market adjustments to macroeconomic conditions [2] Industry Insights - New Lai Ying Material (300260) reported improved Q2 performance, benefiting from growth in the semiconductor and liquid cooling sectors, with a focus on domestic substitution and an optimized customer structure [5][6] - Li Yuan Heng (688499) achieved profitability with a robust order backlog in solid-state battery equipment, indicating a strong operational cash flow and successful delivery to major clients [7] - Jin Zai Food (003000) is experiencing a Q2 adjustment period, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027, reflecting a mismatch between internal expansion strategies and external market conditions [8][9] - Anpei Long (301413) reported steady growth in its temperature and pressure sensor business while investing in humanoid robotics, adjusting profit forecasts for 2025-2026 [10] - Xinde New Materials (301349) is seeing significant growth in fast-charging products, with profit forecasts adjusted upwards due to improved margins [11] - The report on China National Railway (601766) indicates strong growth in H1 2025, driven by recovery in railway fixed asset investments [18] - The report on China Duty Free Group (601888) highlights a narrowing revenue decline in Q2 2025, with a focus on expanding city store operations to boost sales [31] - Yun Aluminum (000807) reported a 17.98% increase in revenue for H1 2025, with a focus on maintaining high profit margins amid fluctuating aluminum prices [32][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from dual growth in the semiconductor and liquid cooling sectors, with a projected revenue increase from 2,711 million RMB in 2023 to 3,989 million RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.57% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to recover from 226.34 million RMB in 2024 to 414.73 million RMB in 2027, indicating a significant growth trajectory [1] - The company has made strides in optimizing its customer structure and enhancing its product offerings in the semiconductor sector, which is expected to drive future growth [8] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.409 billion RMB, a slight decrease of 0.6% year-on-year, with the food business showing a 5.4% increase in revenue [8] - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 24.5%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.6%, down 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The company has improved its operating cash flow, achieving a net cash flow from operating activities of 130 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 41.8% [8] Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively pursuing opportunities in the liquid cooling market, focusing on key components such as CDU and fluid pipelines, which are essential for AI infrastructure [8] - The company has established itself as a primary supplier for major semiconductor equipment manufacturers, enhancing its competitive position in the market [8] - The report highlights the company's commitment to increasing R&D investment to develop high-value products, which is expected to strengthen its market position further [8]

格隆汇8月22日丨东方钽业(000962.SZ)在互动平台表示，公司目前不生产"真空阀门"产品。 ...

Group 1 - The China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo (Chain Expo) serves as an efficient platform for companies to address supply chain shortcomings and challenges [2] - Sichuan Tianlian Robot, among 29 participating Sichuan enterprises, aims to adopt new solutions if breakthroughs in battery energy density are achieved [1][2] - Chengdu Zongheng Co. showcased a new pure electric flagship model with a battery life exceeding 3 hours, attracting interest from overseas customers [2] Group 2 - The expo facilitates equal dialogue between small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and industry giants, exemplified by Sichuan Shanghao Tea's successful negotiations with major beverage companies [4] - Dongfang Electric Group presented advanced clean energy products, including a 50 MW heavy gas turbine and the world's largest 26 MW offshore wind turbine [4] - Zhongke Jiuwai's participation in the expo has led to investment interest from various government delegations, highlighting the event's role as an investment accelerator [5] Group 3 - Sichuan signed multiple projects during the expo, with a total value exceeding 2.5 billion yuan, including a $10 million investment from Ocean Logistics Group for a supply chain center project [5] - The project aims to leverage Chengdu's strategic location on the Eurasian corridor to enhance trade and supply chain services for ASEAN enterprises entering the Chinese market [5]