另外，考虑到局势的多变，预计美联储近期决策所受影响有限。然而，若油价呈现下跌趋势并带动 汽油价格走低，将有助缓解当前通胀问题，并可能为宽松货币政策创造条件。在其他条件不变的情况 下，这对股市将是积极信号。 智通财经APP获悉，嘉信理财指出，石油输出国组织的减产决定可能限制了油价的短期下跌空间。 由于预期供应增加将导致价格下降，石油期货市场中远期合约(即2026年末至2027年)的价格可能会大幅 下跌。近期合约或较短期的期货合约受到影响可能较小，因为委内瑞拉的重质原油进入市场需要时间， 可能长达数年。 嘉信理财亦指，尽管委内瑞拉局势仍不稳定，并会继续变化，但迄今为止全球市场的反应相对平 稳。后市很大程度上将取决于美国对委内瑞拉的介入程度、两国之外的主要石油生产国将如何回应，以 及能源市场是否会出现剧烈波动。不确定性可能影响长期国债收益率走向，进而引发股市波动，但纵观 历史，地缘政治事件很少对市场产生长期影响。 嘉信理财认为，尽管委内瑞拉并非主要石油出口国，但出于对潜在大宗商品影响的担忧，油价波动 可能会持续。委内瑞拉的石油日产量曾超过300万桶，但现在已低于100万桶。相比之下，美国的日产量 为1300万桶。委 ...

格隆汇1月7日｜由于特朗普表示委内瑞拉将向美国移交3000万至5000万桶受制裁石油并进行销售，石油 期货价格走低。TP ICAP的Scott Shelton在报告中表示，这一声明增加了委内瑞拉临时总统与美国合作 的可能性，"对我而言，这是看跌信号，因为它消除了上行空间，同时增加了下行潜力。"不过他补充 称，3000万至5000万桶重质原油的短期影响"并不会真正影响轻质原油的平衡"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil futures experienced a decline in the early Asian session following President Trump's announcement on Truth Social regarding the shipment of Venezuelan oil to the U.S. [1] Group 1 - The announcement by President Trump indicates a potential shift in U.S. oil supply dynamics, particularly involving Venezuelan oil [1] - The market reaction, reflected in the drop of oil futures, suggests investor concerns over the implications of increased Venezuelan oil supply [1]

机构分析指出，投资者严阵以待，准备迎接美国股市和 石油期货于当地时间本周日晚些时候开盘交 易。GasBuddy石油分析主管帕特里克·德哈恩表示，石油期货可能出现波动。短期内，如果市场持续担 忧委内瑞拉政权及其短期石油产出，石油期货可能"因不确定性而小幅上涨"。此外，欧佩克周日重申， 将在第一季度暂停增产。德哈恩表示，一旦政权稳定下来，油价最终可能走低。"我预计开盘时会出现 相当大的波动。我认为市场情绪将是：短期风险，长期乐观，"他表示。WTI原油目前交易价格约为每 桶57美元，而布伦特原油价格约为每桶61美元。期货交易于周日晚上6点（北京时间周一早上7点）开 始。（格隆汇） ...

Oil futures edged lower after making big gains yesterday on the U.S.'s tightening of the blockade of tankers entering or leaving Venezuela. ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil futures have increased as President Trump has intensified the blockade against Venezuela, impacting the global oil market and supply dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The blockade is expected to further restrict Venezuela's oil exports, which have already been significantly reduced, leading to tighter global oil supply [1] - Oil prices have shown a notable increase, reflecting market reactions to geopolitical tensions and supply constraints [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Context - The U.S. government's actions are part of a broader strategy to apply pressure on the Venezuelan government, which is seen as a key factor influencing oil market stability [1] - The intensification of the blockade may lead to increased volatility in oil prices as traders react to ongoing developments in Venezuela [1]

Report Summary Core View - The EIA's July oil supply report confirmed the production and demand situation in the US in June. After the decline in the oil price center, the resilience of US crude oil production was still evident, while the growth of demand was weaker than the seasonal level, and the demand for gasoline and diesel was at a five - year low for the same period. Due to the improvement of refining profits, the net input of refinery feedstock rebounded [3]. Specific Data - **Production**: In May, US crude oil production was 13.488 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 24,000 barrels per day [3]. - **Demand**: In May, US petroleum product demand was 20.023 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 110,000 barrels per day. Gasoline demand showed seasonal growth, with a month - on - month increase of 174,000 barrels per day, while diesel demand decreased by 94,000 barrels per day month - on - month [3]. - **Refinery Feedstock**: In May, the net input of refinery feedstock increased by 724,000 barrels per day month - on - month, getting out of the year - on - year slump from March to April [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of upcoming tariffs on oil prices and the easing of sanctions threats against Russia, highlighting the market's need for a risk premium due to potential secondary sanctions on countries importing Russian oil [1] Group 1: Tariffs and Oil Prices - Oil futures are fluctuating between slight increases and decreases as the tariff deadline approaches, with tariffs set to be implemented on August 7 [1] - The tariffs are expected to heighten concerns regarding oil demand, contributing to market volatility [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Rystad Energy's report indicates that oil prices are supported by the need to maintain a risk premium for potential secondary sanctions against Russian oil importers for at least one week [1] - The anticipated weak economic growth and oil demand outlook is negatively impacting oil prices, primarily affecting the refined oil market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are expected to trade within a narrow range this week, as the market has already priced in the anticipated increase in production by OPEC+ [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - OPEC+ is expected to agree on an increase of 411,000 barrels per day in August [1] - The supply from OPEC+ is under the control of investors, indicating a stable market environment [1] Group 2: Price Dynamics - Prices seem to have already absorbed the news of the production increase, suggesting limited short-term volatility [1] - A weaker dollar may extend any upward momentum in oil prices [1]

Group 1 - Oil prices are attempting to rebound after experiencing a sell-off due to easing tensions in the Israel-Iran conflict [1] - The market focus has shifted back to fundamentals, with traders questioning whether oil prices can regain upward momentum from current levels [1] - Prior to the recent escalation in conflict, oil prices had already been on an upward trend since April [1]