【8月28日上期所能源化工仓单数据公布】8月28日，上期所发布能源化工仓单及变化数据。中质含硫原 油期货仓单5721000桶，环比持平；低硫燃料油期货仓库仓单35110吨，环比持平。燃料油期货仓单 119580吨，环比持平；石油沥青期货仓库仓单29790吨，环比持平；石油沥青期货厂库仓单41710吨，环 比持平。纸浆期货仓库仓单231068吨，环比减少656吨；纸浆期货厂库仓单18240吨，环比持平。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-08-28 原油端扰动盘面，市场交投氛围平淡 市场分析 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 1、8月27日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2510合约下午收盘价3471元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌54元/吨，跌幅 1.53%；持仓136243手，环比下降23879手，成交167989手，环比上涨7553手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3806—4086元/吨；山东，3470—3800元/吨；华南，3490—3510元/吨； 华东，3560—3750元/吨。 昨日东北以及山东市场价格均出现下跌，其余地区沥青现货价格大体企稳。对于沥青现货市场而言，尽管个别品 牌沥青现货流通量紧张，但由于原油价格以及沥青期货下跌，对现货端情绪存在利空，加之沥青刚性需求整体表 现欠佳，市场实际交投氛围平淡。就沥青自身基本面而言，当前供需两弱格局延续，虽然供应端增长受限，在天 气与资金因素影响下刚需同样改善乏力，投机需求偏 ...

Report Overview - **Date**: June 26, 2025 - **Report Type**: Main Variety Strategy Breakfast - **Covered Industries**: Commodity Futures and Options (including Metal and New Energy Materials, Livestock and Soft Commodities, Energy and Chemicals) Metal and New Energy Materials - Copper Investment Ratings - **Intraday View**: 78300 - 79300 [1] - **Medium - term View**: 60000 - 90000 [1] Core View - The Fed's expected rate cut, declining scrap copper supply, tight supply - demand of copper concentrates, increased US trade demand, and continuous destocking of domestic inventories will boost copper prices [4] Summary by Section - **Macro**: Most Fed officials believe it is appropriate to cut interest rates later this year [1] - **Supply**: In May, total scrap copper imports decreased by 9.55% month - on - month and 6.63% year - on - year. The proportion of scrap copper imports from the US will fall below 5% in June. Spot supply in the Guangdong market increased, while that in the North China market was normal [1] - **Demand**: In May, the total export volume of refined copper rods increased by 17.57% month - on - month and 34% year - on - year. However, terminal demand weakened in June. Many recycled copper rod enterprises had insufficient orders, and downstream copper factories in Chongqing almost stopped purchasing [2] - **Inventory**: On June 25, LME copper inventory decreased by 1200 tons to 93475 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 955 tons to 21470 tons [2] - **Strategy**: Adopt an operation idea of sideways with a bullish bias and sell deep out - of - the - money put options [1] Livestock and Soft Commodities - Protein Meal Investment Ratings - **Intraday View**: Soybean meal 2509 will oscillate weakly [5] - **Medium - term View**: Soybean meal 2509 will build a bottom in the range of [2900, 3100] [5] Core View - Domestic soybean meal is influenced by multiple factors. After recent declines fully digesting negative factors, it may build a phased bottom around 3000 points. The "sell out - of - the - money call options on soybean oil 2509 - C - 8400" strategy can be continued [5][7] Summary by Section - **Weather and Geopolitics**: In late June, soybean meal 2509 entered a volatile market due to uncertain weather in US and Canadian rapeseed producing areas. The easing of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict has affected the price of soybean meal [5] - **International Soybeans**: As of the week ending June 22, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%. Forecasts show sufficient import volumes of soybeans from June to August. Anec raised Brazil's soybean export forecast for June to 14.99 million tons [6] - **Rapeseed**: Canadian new - crop rapeseed is planted relatively fast but is experiencing mild drought. The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture raised the export volume of old - crop rapeseed by 500,000 tons to 9 million tons [6] - **Strategy**: Continue to hold the position of selling out - of - the - money call options on soybean oil 2509 - C - 8400 [5] Energy and Chemicals - Petroleum Asphalt Investment Ratings - **Intraday View**: Weak sideways movement [8] - **Medium - term View**: Under pressure [9] Core View - The cease - fire between Israel and Iran has led to a sharp decline in oil prices, and asphalt futures prices have also followed. In the long term, the asphalt fundamentals are relatively weak in summer, and the asphalt crack spread will continue to weaken [11] Summary by Section - **Supply**: Local refineries' losses in asphalt production have decreased, and the domestic asphalt plant operating rate and production have increased. It is expected that they will continue to rise before the peak season [9] - **Demand**: High prices in the north and rainfall in the south have restricted demand. Some downstream enterprises have pre - stocking demand. The operating rate of waterproofing membrane enterprises has increased significantly. Asphalt plant inventories have continued to decline, and the decline in social inventories has slowed down [10] - **Cost**: In the short term, oil prices have fallen due to the extrusion of geopolitical premiums. In the long term, oil prices are still under pressure [10] - **Strategy**: Short fuel oil and long asphalt spread [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For copper, the market is influenced by multiple factors. The US government's policies may intensify the global supply - demand tightness, but domestic factors like canceled photovoltaic projects and the off - season in the copper industry reduce the upward momentum. For protein粕, the market is complex with different trends in related products, and the future trend of bean粕 depends on factors such as US soybean weather. For petroleum asphalt, the demand is weak due to rainfall and project funds, and the supply is increasing, so the price is expected to be under pressure in the long - term [1][3][4][6][8][10]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: Intraday view is in the range of 77000 - 78600, and the mid - term view is in the range of 60000 - 90000. The reference strategy is to adopt an oscillating operation idea [1]. - **Core Logic**: Macroscopically, there are concerns about high tariffs on imported copper. Supply - wise, the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine will resume operation at the end of June, and the global copper concentrate supply - demand tightness persists. Demand - wise, the开工 rate of refined copper rod enterprises is expected to rise slightly this week but may decline in June. Consumption in different regions is weak. In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory decreased and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased on June 4 [1][2]. - **Outlook**: The US government's policies may exacerbate the supply - demand tightness, but domestic factors reduce the upward momentum [3]. Protein粕 - **Core Logic**: This week, the meal market oscillated. The pressure from domestic traders' large - scale purchases of South American soybeans may have been released. The weather speculation of US soybeans before the end of August may help bean粕 2509 build a bottom. The vegetable oil market has different trends, affected by policies and planting progress [4]. - **International Situation**: US soybean planting is going smoothly. The expected soybean arrivals in June, July, and August are 1200, 950, and 850 million tons respectively. Canadian rapeseed planting is faster than usual, and the global rapeseed production is expected to increase in the 25/26 season [5]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the USDA and MPOB monthly reports next week. Bean粕 2509 will generally oscillate, and it is advisable to consider selling out - of - the - money put options on the near - month contracts [6]. - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: Intraday, bean粕 2509 oscillates in the range of [2900, 3000]. Mid - term, it searches for a bottom at a relatively low position in the range of [2800, 3100]. The reference strategy is to continue holding the sold out - of - the - money put option of bean粕 2509 - P - 2850 [7]. Petroleum Asphalt - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: Intraday, it runs under pressure, and mid - term, it oscillates weakly. The reference strategy is to sell high [8]. - **Core Logic**: Supply - side, local refineries' losses in asphalt production have deepened, but the domestic asphalt plant operating rate has increased. Demand - side, due to rainfall and project funds, the demand is weak. Inventory - wise, the plant inventory has declined for three consecutive weeks, and the social inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks. The cost is affected by the oil price, which has some upward potential but also faces pressure from OPEC+ [8][9]. - **Outlook**: The release of asphalt's rigid demand is less than expected. In the long - term, with the increase in supply, if the oil price falls, the asphalt price is expected to follow a weak trend [10].

Group 1: Investment Rating - The unilateral investment rating is oscillating weakly, while there are no ratings for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Group 2: Core View - On April 10, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2506 was 3240 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan/ton or 2.84% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 177,622 lots, a decrease of 10,286 lots, and the trading volume was 386,207 lots, a decrease of 69,170 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast 3690 - 4056 yuan/ton, Shandong 3300 - 3550 yuan/ton, South China 3330 - 3600 yuan/ton, and East China 3540 - 3720 yuan/ton [1] - Due to Trump's authorization to suspend tariffs on non - retaliatory countries for 90 days, risk assets that had fallen sharply due to tariff concerns rebounded. The Brent crude oil price rose to around $65/barrel, driving up the futures prices of downstream energy and chemical products including asphalt. Currently, the asphalt market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with no obvious overall contradictions. Local spot prices have declined, and the basis has narrowed. The current market drive mainly comes from the macro and crude oil aspects, and it may fluctuate repeatedly in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Futures market: The main asphalt futures contract BU2506 showed price increase, decreased open interest, and decreased trading volume on April 10 [1] - Spot market: Different regions have different ranges of heavy - traffic asphalt spot settlement prices [1] - Market drive: The price increase is mainly due to the rebound of risk assets and crude oil, while the asphalt's own fundamentals are weak in supply and demand [1] Strategy - Unilateral: The strategy is oscillating weakly, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Figures - There are figures showing various aspects of asphalt, including spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), futures contract prices (index, main, near - month), trading volume and open interest of futures, domestic asphalt production (weekly, from independent refineries, in different regions), domestic asphalt consumption (road, waterproof, coking, ship - fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery, social) [3]