1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains tense, with strong support on the cost side. Although the terminal consumption momentum is weak, there is seasonal recovery potential after the Spring Festival, and the overall inventory level is at a medium - low level. There are still positive drivers for the asphalt fundamentals, but attention should be paid to the significant fluctuations in the unilateral price of the disk after the basis weakens, and the monthly spread opportunities can be focused on [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - On March 18, the closing price of the main BU2606 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 4,425 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 261,472 lots, up 8,479 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 1,132,604 lots, down 286,875 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 4,306 - 4,500 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 3,960 - 4,200 yuan/ton in Shandong, 4,200 - 4,400 yuan/ton in South China, and 4,130 - 4,190 yuan/ton in East China [1] - The spot prices of asphalt in Northeast, Shandong, and East China continued to rise yesterday, while the intended spot price of asphalt in North China declined. The prices in other regions remained generally stable. Crude oil prices and asphalt futures remained volatile at high levels, continuing to support the atmosphere of the asphalt spot market [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term shock is on the strong side, and attention should be paid to the development of the Iranian situation [3] - Inter - period: Pay attention to the opportunity of positive arbitrage on dips (BU2605/2606) [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]

Report Summary 1. Hot News - The US President Trump stated that the war against Iran would "soon" end but "not" this week. If Iran takes any action to block oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, the US will launch a "20 - fold more severe strike" against it. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that the action against Iran "has not ended". Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Garib Abadi said that Iran's current priority is only "resolute defense" and "the end of the war is in Iran's hands" [2] - In the first two months of this year, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 7.73 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.3%. Exports were 4.62 trillion yuan, up 19.2%; imports were 3.11 trillion yuan, up 17.1%. China's imports and exports to the US in the first two months were 609.71 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.9%, while those to ASEAN and the EU both increased by about 20% [2] - The exchanges took action again to prevent market risks. The Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai International Energy Exchange issued notices to adjust the price limit ranges and trading margin ratios of relevant contracts for crude oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, fuel oil, petroleum asphalt, and butadiene rubber futures [2] - From March 2nd to March 8th, 2026, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1.3179 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 396,000 tons. The inventory scale rebounded slightly, and the current inventory is at the second - highest level since the beginning of the year [2] - According to the China Cotton Information Network, based on the spring sowing intention survey, the cotton - planting policy direction in Xinjiang is clear, but implementation measures vary by region. The cotton - planting area for the new year will be slightly reduced month - on - month. The total output calculated based on the three - year average yield per unit area will slightly decrease. The national total output will decrease by 40,000 tons to 7.24 million tons. The annual total supply will decrease by 9 tons to 1,480 tons. The total demand will increase by 70,000 tons to 885,000 tons. The ending inventory for this year will decrease by 160,000 tons to 595,000 tons [3] 2. Key Focus - The key focus includes urea, lithium carbonate, platinum, crude oil, and plastic [4] 3. Night - session Performance - The night - session performance of different commodity sectors shows that the non - metallic building materials sector rose by 2.24%, the precious metals sector by 30.75%, the oilseeds and oils sector by 7.39%, the soft commodities sector by 2.53%, the non - ferrous metals sector by 24.61%, the coal, coke, steel, and ore sector by 8.80%, the energy sector by 7.16%, the chemical sector by 12.84%, the grain sector by 1.04%, and the agricultural and sideline products sector by 2.64% [4] 4. Category Asset Performance | Category | Name | Daily % Change | Monthly % Change | Year - to - date % Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50, CSI 300 | 0.65, 0.64, 1.28 | - 0.95, - 1.89, - 0.76 | 3.89, - 1.63, 0.97 | | | CSI 500 | 1.58 | - 2.87 | 12.65 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.21 | - 1.42 | - 0.94 | | | Hang Seng Index | 2.17 | - 2.52 | 1.29 | | | German DAX | 2.39 | - 5.20 | - 2.13 | | | Nikkei 225 | 2.88 | - 7.82 | 7.77 | | | FTSE 100 | 1.59 | - 4.57 | 4.84 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury bond futures | - 0.00 | - 0.08 | 0.41 | | | 5 - year Treasury bond futures | - 0.00 | - 0.03 | 0.20 | | | 2 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | - 2.48 | 11.31 | 16.48 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 0.00 | 27.18 | 48.70 | | | London Spot Gold | 0.98 | - 1.67 | 20.19 | | | LME Copper | 0.00 | - 2.84 | 3.38 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 1.73 | - 3.31 | 17.43 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.23 | 1.33 | 0.69 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 28.40 | 70.57 | [6]

Group 1: Hot News - Trump said the war between the US and Iran may end soon and the progress is much faster than expected. He also considered taking over the Strait of Hormuz [2] - G7 finance ministers discussed how to deal with the soaring oil prices caused by the war between the US, Israel and Iran and decided not to release strategic oil reserves for the time being [2] - China's CPI in February increased by 1.3% year-on-year, the highest in nearly three years, and the core CPI increased by 1.8%. The PPI decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing for three consecutive months [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted trading limits and transaction fees for fuel oil futures, and adjusted the daily price limits and trading margins for petroleum asphalt and butadiene rubber futures. The Shanghai International Energy Exchange also adjusted trading limits, daily price limits, trading margins and transaction fees for crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures [3] - Four Chinese nickel processing plants in Indonesia announced temporary shutdowns after a fatal landslide at a nickel waste yard in February [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on: urea, lithium carbonate, fuel oil, PP, PVC [4] - Night session performance: Non-metallic building materials rose 2.05%, precious metals rose 30.46%, oilseeds rose 8.01%, coal, coke and steel ore rose 9.18%, energy rose 6.43%, chemicals rose 12.22%, grains rose 1.11%, agricultural and sideline products rose 2.75%, soft commodities rose 2.70%, and non-ferrous metals rose 25.08% [4][5] Group 3: Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days [6] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.67% daily, 1.59% monthly, and rose 3.22% annually. Other major indices also showed different trends [7] - Fixed income: 10-year, 5-year and 2-year treasury bond futures showed different changes in daily, monthly and annual terms [7] - Commodities: The CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper and Wind commodity index showed different trends [7] - Others: The US dollar index and CBOE volatility showed different changes [7] Group 5: Stock Market Risk Preference and Commodity Trends - The chart shows the trends of major commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME copper, etc. [8]

Core Viewpoint - The volatility and risks in the crude oil market are increasing, prompting exchanges to implement measures to mitigate risks and stabilize the market [1][9]. Group 1: Regulatory Measures - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) has announced adjustments to trading limits, price fluctuation limits, and margin requirements for crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures [2][4]. - Starting from March 10, 2026, the price fluctuation limit for crude oil futures contracts will be set at 20%, with a margin requirement of 21% for hedging positions and 22% for general positions [4]. - The INE has also set a maximum daily opening position limit of 400 lots for non-futures company members and special non-broker participants in crude oil futures [4]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The crude oil market is experiencing significant price increases due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with international crude oil prices reaching nearly $120 per barrel, reflecting a rise of over 12% [9]. - The market is influenced by production cuts from several oil-producing countries due to storage pressures and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to heightened volatility in related energy products [9][10]. - Analysts suggest that the current geopolitical situation presents high uncertainty, and prices may experience significant corrections if tensions ease [9]. Group 3: Exchange Actions - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) has also adjusted trading limits for fuel oil futures and made changes to the price fluctuation limits and margin requirements for contracts related to petroleum asphalt and butadiene rubber [5][7]. - Effective from March 10, 2026, the price fluctuation limit for petroleum asphalt futures will be set at 12%, with a margin requirement of 13% for hedging positions and 14% for general positions [7]. - The SHFE has implemented a fee adjustment for fuel oil futures, with trading fees set at 0.01% of the transaction amount starting from March 11, 2026 [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil end remains strong, supporting the spot and futures prices of asphalt. The continuous rise of crude oil prices and asphalt futures has boosted the sentiment in the asphalt spot market. Some refineries and traders are reluctant to sell, and the circulation of asphalt spot has decreased. The main contradiction in the market lies in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, with the core being the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz. The supply of raw materials for domestic refineries is tightening, and the cost - end support for asphalt remains strong [1][2] 3. Summary According to Related Contents Market Analysis - On March 4, the closing price of the main BU2604 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3,660 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton or 2.3% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 96,594 lots, down 14,266 lots compared with the previous day, and the trading volume was 423,643 lots, down 12,781 lots compared with the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast: 3,766 - 3,930 yuan/ton; Shandong: 3,400 - 3,600 yuan/ton; South China: 3,500 - 3,550 yuan/ton; East China: 3,330 - 3,400 yuan/ton [1] - The spot prices of asphalt in various domestic regions increased to different extents yesterday. The continuous rise of crude oil prices and asphalt futures has boosted the sentiment in the asphalt spot market. Some refineries and traders are reluctant to sell, and the circulation of asphalt spot has decreased. The main contradiction in the market lies in the Middle East geopolitical situation, with the core being the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Although the US will escort ships, the situation has not been substantially resolved. The number of oil tankers passing through the strait is extremely low, and the supply of raw materials for domestic refineries is tightening. If this situation persists, refineries may face passive production cuts after inventory depletion, and the cost - end support for asphalt remains strong [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term trend is oscillating upward, and attention should be paid to the development of the Iranian situation. - Inter - period: Not applicable. - Inter - variety: Not applicable. - Futures - spot: Not applicable. - Options: Not applicable. [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an overview of the changes in futures warehouse receipts for various commodities, indicating stability in some while showing increases in others, which may reflect market trends and supply-demand dynamics [1] Group 1: Nickel and Fuel Oil - Nickel futures warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 52,027 tons compared to the previous trading day [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil futures warehouse receipts also remain unchanged at 4,980 tons [1] Group 2: Rubber and Aluminum - 20 rubber futures warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 50,803 tons [1] - Aluminum futures warehouse receipts increased by 33,088 tons to a total of 200,654 tons [1] Group 3: Copper and Steel - International copper futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,001 tons to 14,319 tons [1] - Hot-rolled coil futures warehouse receipts increased by 21,435 tons to 297,854 tons [1] Group 4: Other Commodities - Pulp warehouse futures receipts increased by 4,988 tons to 136,415 tons [1] - Silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 7,531 kilograms to 349,633 kilograms [1] - Lead futures warehouse receipts increased by 6,501 tons to 52,968 tons [1] - Zinc futures warehouse receipts increased by 725 tons to 43,060 tons [1] - Tin futures warehouse receipts increased by 3,780 tons to 10,296 tons [1] - Copper futures warehouse receipts increased by 8,282 tons to 187,179 tons [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai Gold Exchange have announced adjustments to margin ratios and price limits for various futures contracts, as well as work arrangements for the 2026 Spring Festival period to mitigate market risks during this time [1][7][14]. Group 1: Margin Ratio and Price Limit Adjustments - The margin ratios and price limits for newly listed futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc have been adjusted, with price limits set at 10% and margin ratios at 11% for hedged positions and 12% for general positions [4]. - For contracts like nickel and tin, the price limit is set at 12% with margin ratios of 13% for hedged positions and 14% for general positions [4]. - Gold contracts have a price limit of 17% and margin ratios of 18% for hedged positions and 19% for general positions, while silver contracts have a price limit of 20% and margin ratios of 21% for hedged positions and 22% for general positions [4]. - Other contracts, including rebar and hot-rolled coils, have a price limit of 7% and margin ratios of 8% for hedged positions and 9% for general positions [4]. Group 2: Spring Festival Work Arrangements - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will not conduct night trading on February 13, 2026, and will be closed from February 14 to February 23, 2026, resuming trading on February 24, 2026 [8][14]. - On February 24, 2026, all futures and options contracts will undergo a collective auction from 08:55 to 09:00, followed by the resumption of night trading [9]. Group 3: Risk Control Measures - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has implemented measures to adjust margin ratios and price limits for gold and silver contracts to prevent price fluctuations during the Spring Festival [16]. - Starting from the close on February 11, 2026, the margin ratio for gold contracts will increase from 18% to 21%, and the price limit will rise from 17% to 20% [16]. - For silver contracts, the margin ratio will increase from 24% to 27%, with the price limit changing from 23% to 26% [16].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange, Shanghai International Energy Exchange, and Guangzhou Futures Exchange have announced adjustments to the price limits and margin requirements for various futures contracts ahead of the 2026 Spring Festival [1] Group 1: Adjustments by Shanghai Futures Exchange - Starting from the settlement on February 12, 2026, the price limit for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, and alumina futures will be adjusted to 13%, with margin requirements set at 14% for hedging and 15% for general positions [2] - Nickel and tin futures will have a price limit of 15%, with margin requirements of 16% for hedging and 17% for general positions [2] - Futures for casting aluminum alloy, wire rod, and stainless steel will see a price limit of 11%, with margin requirements of 12% for hedging and 13% for general positions [2] - Gold futures will have a price limit of 20%, with margin requirements of 21% for hedging and 22% for general positions [2] - Silver futures will have a price limit of 25%, with margin requirements of 26% for hedging and 27% for general positions [2] - Futures for rebar, hot-rolled coils, pulp, and printing paper will have a price limit of 10%, with margin requirements of 11% for hedging and 12% for general positions [2] - Futures for fuel oil, petroleum asphalt, butadiene rubber, and natural rubber will have a price limit of 12%, with margin requirements of 13% for hedging and 14% for general positions [2] Group 2: Adjustments by Shanghai International Energy Exchange - From February 12, 2026, the price limit for international copper futures will be set at 13%, with margin requirements of 14% for hedging and 15% for general positions [3] - Crude oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and No. 20 rubber futures will have a price limit of 12%, with margin requirements of 13% for hedging and 14% for general positions [3] - The shipping index (European line) futures will have a price limit of 18%, with a margin requirement of 20% [3] Group 3: Adjustments by Guangzhou Futures Exchange - Starting from February 12, 2026, the price limit for industrial silicon futures will be adjusted to 11%, with speculative margin requirements set at 13% and hedging margin requirements at 12% [3] - The price limit for polysilicon futures will be adjusted to 12%, with margin requirements remaining unchanged for both speculative and hedging positions [3] - The price limit for lithium carbonate futures will be adjusted to 15%, with speculative margin requirements set at 17% and hedging margin requirements at 16% [3] - The price limit for platinum and palladium futures will be adjusted to 24%, with both speculative and hedging margin requirements set at 26% [3] Group 4: Resumption of Trading - Trading will resume on February 24, 2026, and the price limits and margin requirements for industrial silicon, polysilicon, platinum, and palladium futures will revert to pre-adjustment levels on the first trading day without price limits and continuous quotes [4] - The price limit for lithium carbonate futures will be adjusted to 13%, with speculative margin requirements set at 15% and hedging margin requirements at 14% [4]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced the trading arrangements for the Spring Festival in 2026, including a market closure from February 14 to February 23, with night trading resuming on February 24 [2] - The margin ratios and price fluctuation limits for various futures contracts will be adjusted starting from the market close on February 12, 2026, with specific percentages outlined for different commodities [2] - The price fluctuation limits and margin ratios will revert to their original levels after the first trading day without a one-sided market following February 24, 2026 [3] Group 2 - Specific adjustments include a 13% price fluctuation limit for copper, aluminum, zinc, and lead futures, with varying margin ratios for hedging and general positions [2] - Nickel and tin futures will have a 15% price fluctuation limit, with higher margin requirements for different types of positions [2] - Gold and silver futures will see significant adjustments, with price fluctuation limits set at 20% and 25% respectively, along with corresponding margin ratio changes [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, focus on the progress of US-Iran negotiations [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the planned negotiations between Iran and the US, the geopolitical situation has eased marginally. This week, crude oil prices have significantly corrected, driving down the prices of energy and chemical products including asphalt. Before a relatively clear result or signal emerges from the Iran - US negotiations, the market may be repeatedly disturbed by news, and caution is needed considering the approaching Spring Festival holiday [1]. - From the perspective of the asphalt market structure, the current fundamentals are in a situation of weak supply and demand, with relatively low trading volume. After the sharp decline in the BU futures market, the futures - spot price of asphalt has converged, and the basis has been repaired. Excluding geopolitical and macro - level disturbances, the contradictions within the asphalt market are relatively limited. The cost and yield changes brought about by raw material switching may gradually become clear after March, and the futures market may turn to a volatile state after a short - term correction [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On the afternoon of February 3, the closing price of the main BU2603 asphalt futures contract was 3,309 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58 yuan/ton or 1.72% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 110,778 lots, a decrease of 16,712 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 167,414 lots, a decrease of 129,940 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast, 3,506 - 3,600 yuan/ton; Shandong, 3,210 - 3,270 yuan/ton; South China, 3,280 - 3,320 yuan/ton; East China, 3,250 - 3,280 yuan/ton [1]. Figures - The report includes figures on asphalt spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), asphalt futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract, near - month spread), trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures (unilateral, main contract), domestic asphalt weekly production (total, independent refineries, in different regions), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery, social) [3]