Group 1 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced the trading schedule for the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival in 2025, indicating no night trading on September 30, 2025, and a market closure from October 1 to October 8, 2025 [1][2] - Trading will resume on October 9, 2025, with a collection auction for all futures and options contracts from 08:55 to 09:00 [2] Group 2 - Starting from the settlement on September 29, 2025, margin ratios and price fluctuation limits for various futures contracts will be adjusted, with specific percentages outlined for different commodities [2] - For example, the price fluctuation limit for aluminum alloy futures will be adjusted to 7%, while for gold and silver futures, it will be set at 15% [2] Group 3 - On October 9, 2025, after trading, the price fluctuation limits and margin ratios will revert to their original levels following the first trading day without a one-sided market [3] - Other matters regarding price fluctuation limits and margin ratios will be governed by the Shanghai Futures Exchange's risk control management regulations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for crude oil-related products experienced a decline across the board on September 22, with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) leading the drop at over 2% [1]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of September 22, the main crude oil futures fell by 1.65%, settling at 483.10 yuan per barrel [1]. - Fuel oil futures decreased by 1.24%, priced at 2783.00 yuan per ton [1]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil futures saw a decline of 0.65%, with a price of 3383.00 yuan per ton [1]. - Liquefied petroleum gas futures dropped by 2.59%, now at 4255.00 yuan per ton [1]. - The opening prices for various contracts on September 22 included SC crude oil at 485.20 yuan, fuel oil at 2793.00 yuan, and LPG at 4359.00 yuan [2]. Group 2: Warehouse Data - As of September 19, the warehouse data indicated that the futures warehouse receipts for medium-sulfur crude oil remained unchanged at 5,401,000 barrels [3]. - Fuel oil futures warehouse receipts were stable at 127,140 tons [3]. - The warehouse receipts for asphalt futures decreased by 1,330 tons, totaling 40,440 tons [3]. - LPG futures warehouse receipts remained steady at 12,974 contracts [3]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts were unchanged at 10,020 tons [3]. Group 3: Basis Data - The basis data as of September 19 showed a phenomenon of "backwardation" for fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, and low-sulfur fuel oil, where spot prices exceeded futures prices [3]. - The basis for fuel oil was calculated at 2,632 yuan, with a basis rate of 48.29% [3]. - The basis for asphalt was 205 yuan, with a basis rate of 5.65% [3]. - The basis for LPG was 234 yuan, with a basis rate of 5.08% [3]. - The basis for low-sulfur fuel oil was 144 yuan, with a basis rate of 4.07% [3].

Core Insights - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) is focusing on expanding its international presence and increasing the participation of foreign investors, aiming to promote "Chinese pricing" globally [1][3][10] Group 1: Expansion of Foreign Participation - The number of foreign investors is growing at a double-digit rate annually, with specific pathways for participation including foreign-owned enterprises and qualified foreign institutional investors (QFIs) [8][3] - As of 2024, the number of foreign clients under the specific product pathway has increased by approximately 20%, while QFI clients have surged by about 60%, both exceeding the national average growth rate of 17% [8][3] Group 2: Product Offerings and Internationalization - SHFE has listed 25 futures and 18 options products, with five futures and one options product directly accessible to foreign investors, while 32 products are available for QFI trading [5][8] - The exchange has been actively exploring cross-border cooperation and has introduced an international version of its business rules to facilitate the inclusion of foreign participants [3][2] Group 3: "Shanghai Price" Globalization - The application of "Shanghai pricing" is expanding, with products like crude oil and international copper being used for hedging and pricing in international trade [9][10] - A notable initiative includes the authorization of the settlement price for natural rubber futures to the Osaka Exchange, allowing for direct pricing in RMB, which enhances the international influence of "Chinese pricing" [10][11] Group 4: Future Plans and Collaborations - SHFE plans to steadily increase the number of products available for foreign participation and enhance its cross-border services and international cooperation [2][3] - The exchange is also pursuing partnerships with foreign exchanges to broaden its regulatory reach and facilitate trading for foreign investors [13]

Group 1 - The launch of five new options, including fuel oil, asphalt, and pulp options, enhances the risk management capabilities of the industry chain and increases the number of tradable products for Qualified Foreign Investors (QFI) to 95 [1] - The recent expansion of QFI tradable products is expected to improve international competitiveness and contribute to the formation of a "China price," attracting global resources to participate in the market [1][2] - In the first half of the year, China's futures market added 45 new tradable futures and options, nearly doubling the total number to 91, with 83 in commodities and 7 in financials [1] Group 2 - The newly listed options are expected to meet the diverse needs of enterprises and enhance market liquidity and contract continuity, providing effective risk management during price volatility [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange aims to continuously improve its product system and promote high-level openness in the futures market, supporting the high-quality development of the real economy [2] - Expanding the QFI tradable product range is significant for the high-quality development of the futures industry, enhancing pricing power and optimizing risk management for various sectors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange released data on energy and chemical warehouse receipts, indicating stable inventory levels across various commodities [1] Group 1: Oil and Fuel Inventory - Medium sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts totaled 5,721,000 barrels, unchanged from the previous period [1] - Low sulfur fuel oil futures warehouse receipts stood at 35,110 tons, also unchanged [1] - Fuel oil futures warehouse receipts were recorded at 119,580 tons, remaining stable [1] - Petroleum asphalt futures warehouse receipts amounted to 29,790 tons, with no change [1] - Petroleum asphalt futures factory warehouse receipts reached 41,710 tons, consistent with previous data [1] Group 2: Pulp Inventory - Pulp futures warehouse receipts decreased by 656 tons, totaling 231,068 tons [1] - Pulp futures factory warehouse receipts remained steady at 18,240 tons [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no mention of the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On August 27, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2510 was 3,471 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan/ton or 1.53% from the previous settlement price, with a position of 136,243 lots (down 23,879 lots) and trading volume of 167,989 lots (up 7,553 lots) [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt were 3,806 - 4,086 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 3,470 - 3,800 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,490 - 3,510 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,560 - 3,750 yuan/ton in East China. Prices in Northeast and Shandong markets declined, while those in other regions were generally stable [1]. - The asphalt spot market is affected by falling crude oil and futures prices, with weak rigid demand and a dull trading atmosphere. The current supply - demand weakness persists, and the upward drive of the asphalt market is insufficient, being more influenced by crude oil price fluctuations in the short term [1]. Group 3: Strategy Summary - The strategy for the asphalt market is a unilateral "oscillation," with no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. Group 4: Chart Information - There are multiple charts showing data such as spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest China, Northwest China), asphalt futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract, near - month spread), trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures, domestic asphalt production (weekly, independent refineries, different regions), domestic asphalt consumption (road, waterproof, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery, social) [3].

Report Overview - **Date**: June 26, 2025 - **Report Type**: Main Variety Strategy Breakfast - **Covered Industries**: Commodity Futures and Options (including Metal and New Energy Materials, Livestock and Soft Commodities, Energy and Chemicals) Metal and New Energy Materials - Copper Investment Ratings - **Intraday View**: 78300 - 79300 [1] - **Medium - term View**: 60000 - 90000 [1] Core View - The Fed's expected rate cut, declining scrap copper supply, tight supply - demand of copper concentrates, increased US trade demand, and continuous destocking of domestic inventories will boost copper prices [4] Summary by Section - **Macro**: Most Fed officials believe it is appropriate to cut interest rates later this year [1] - **Supply**: In May, total scrap copper imports decreased by 9.55% month - on - month and 6.63% year - on - year. The proportion of scrap copper imports from the US will fall below 5% in June. Spot supply in the Guangdong market increased, while that in the North China market was normal [1] - **Demand**: In May, the total export volume of refined copper rods increased by 17.57% month - on - month and 34% year - on - year. However, terminal demand weakened in June. Many recycled copper rod enterprises had insufficient orders, and downstream copper factories in Chongqing almost stopped purchasing [2] - **Inventory**: On June 25, LME copper inventory decreased by 1200 tons to 93475 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 955 tons to 21470 tons [2] - **Strategy**: Adopt an operation idea of sideways with a bullish bias and sell deep out - of - the - money put options [1] Livestock and Soft Commodities - Protein Meal Investment Ratings - **Intraday View**: Soybean meal 2509 will oscillate weakly [5] - **Medium - term View**: Soybean meal 2509 will build a bottom in the range of [2900, 3100] [5] Core View - Domestic soybean meal is influenced by multiple factors. After recent declines fully digesting negative factors, it may build a phased bottom around 3000 points. The "sell out - of - the - money call options on soybean oil 2509 - C - 8400" strategy can be continued [5][7] Summary by Section - **Weather and Geopolitics**: In late June, soybean meal 2509 entered a volatile market due to uncertain weather in US and Canadian rapeseed producing areas. The easing of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict has affected the price of soybean meal [5] - **International Soybeans**: As of the week ending June 22, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%. Forecasts show sufficient import volumes of soybeans from June to August. Anec raised Brazil's soybean export forecast for June to 14.99 million tons [6] - **Rapeseed**: Canadian new - crop rapeseed is planted relatively fast but is experiencing mild drought. The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture raised the export volume of old - crop rapeseed by 500,000 tons to 9 million tons [6] - **Strategy**: Continue to hold the position of selling out - of - the - money call options on soybean oil 2509 - C - 8400 [5] Energy and Chemicals - Petroleum Asphalt Investment Ratings - **Intraday View**: Weak sideways movement [8] - **Medium - term View**: Under pressure [9] Core View - The cease - fire between Israel and Iran has led to a sharp decline in oil prices, and asphalt futures prices have also followed. In the long term, the asphalt fundamentals are relatively weak in summer, and the asphalt crack spread will continue to weaken [11] Summary by Section - **Supply**: Local refineries' losses in asphalt production have decreased, and the domestic asphalt plant operating rate and production have increased. It is expected that they will continue to rise before the peak season [9] - **Demand**: High prices in the north and rainfall in the south have restricted demand. Some downstream enterprises have pre - stocking demand. The operating rate of waterproofing membrane enterprises has increased significantly. Asphalt plant inventories have continued to decline, and the decline in social inventories has slowed down [10] - **Cost**: In the short term, oil prices have fallen due to the extrusion of geopolitical premiums. In the long term, oil prices are still under pressure [10] - **Strategy**: Short fuel oil and long asphalt spread [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For copper, the market is influenced by multiple factors. The US government's policies may intensify the global supply - demand tightness, but domestic factors like canceled photovoltaic projects and the off - season in the copper industry reduce the upward momentum. For protein粕, the market is complex with different trends in related products, and the future trend of bean粕 depends on factors such as US soybean weather. For petroleum asphalt, the demand is weak due to rainfall and project funds, and the supply is increasing, so the price is expected to be under pressure in the long - term [1][3][4][6][8][10]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: Intraday view is in the range of 77000 - 78600, and the mid - term view is in the range of 60000 - 90000. The reference strategy is to adopt an oscillating operation idea [1]. - **Core Logic**: Macroscopically, there are concerns about high tariffs on imported copper. Supply - wise, the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine will resume operation at the end of June, and the global copper concentrate supply - demand tightness persists. Demand - wise, the开工 rate of refined copper rod enterprises is expected to rise slightly this week but may decline in June. Consumption in different regions is weak. In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory decreased and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased on June 4 [1][2]. - **Outlook**: The US government's policies may exacerbate the supply - demand tightness, but domestic factors reduce the upward momentum [3]. Protein粕 - **Core Logic**: This week, the meal market oscillated. The pressure from domestic traders' large - scale purchases of South American soybeans may have been released. The weather speculation of US soybeans before the end of August may help bean粕 2509 build a bottom. The vegetable oil market has different trends, affected by policies and planting progress [4]. - **International Situation**: US soybean planting is going smoothly. The expected soybean arrivals in June, July, and August are 1200, 950, and 850 million tons respectively. Canadian rapeseed planting is faster than usual, and the global rapeseed production is expected to increase in the 25/26 season [5]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the USDA and MPOB monthly reports next week. Bean粕 2509 will generally oscillate, and it is advisable to consider selling out - of - the - money put options on the near - month contracts [6]. - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: Intraday, bean粕 2509 oscillates in the range of [2900, 3000]. Mid - term, it searches for a bottom at a relatively low position in the range of [2800, 3100]. The reference strategy is to continue holding the sold out - of - the - money put option of bean粕 2509 - P - 2850 [7]. Petroleum Asphalt - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: Intraday, it runs under pressure, and mid - term, it oscillates weakly. The reference strategy is to sell high [8]. - **Core Logic**: Supply - side, local refineries' losses in asphalt production have deepened, but the domestic asphalt plant operating rate has increased. Demand - side, due to rainfall and project funds, the demand is weak. Inventory - wise, the plant inventory has declined for three consecutive weeks, and the social inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks. The cost is affected by the oil price, which has some upward potential but also faces pressure from OPEC+ [8][9]. - **Outlook**: The release of asphalt's rigid demand is less than expected. In the long - term, with the increase in supply, if the oil price falls, the asphalt price is expected to follow a weak trend [10].

Group 1: Investment Rating - The unilateral investment rating is oscillating weakly, while there are no ratings for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Group 2: Core View - On April 10, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2506 was 3240 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan/ton or 2.84% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 177,622 lots, a decrease of 10,286 lots, and the trading volume was 386,207 lots, a decrease of 69,170 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast 3690 - 4056 yuan/ton, Shandong 3300 - 3550 yuan/ton, South China 3330 - 3600 yuan/ton, and East China 3540 - 3720 yuan/ton [1] - Due to Trump's authorization to suspend tariffs on non - retaliatory countries for 90 days, risk assets that had fallen sharply due to tariff concerns rebounded. The Brent crude oil price rose to around $65/barrel, driving up the futures prices of downstream energy and chemical products including asphalt. Currently, the asphalt market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with no obvious overall contradictions. Local spot prices have declined, and the basis has narrowed. The current market drive mainly comes from the macro and crude oil aspects, and it may fluctuate repeatedly in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Futures market: The main asphalt futures contract BU2506 showed price increase, decreased open interest, and decreased trading volume on April 10 [1] - Spot market: Different regions have different ranges of heavy - traffic asphalt spot settlement prices [1] - Market drive: The price increase is mainly due to the rebound of risk assets and crude oil, while the asphalt's own fundamentals are weak in supply and demand [1] Strategy - Unilateral: The strategy is oscillating weakly, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Figures - There are figures showing various aspects of asphalt, including spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), futures contract prices (index, main, near - month), trading volume and open interest of futures, domestic asphalt production (weekly, from independent refineries, in different regions), domestic asphalt consumption (road, waterproof, coking, ship - fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery, social) [3]