隔夜国际油价下跌,SC10合约日内跌3.3%。8月27日起美国因印度购买俄油而对其加征的25%关税正式实施，据悉 印度炼厂10月后对俄油的采购量自上半年的180万桶/天下调至140-160万桶/天。俄油相关的供应风险依然存在，但 布伦特临近70美元/桶已基本定价该因素的利多影响,在地缘风险进一步发酵前原油或转为震荡走势。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 油价大幅回调后燃油系期货亦承压回落。截至7月底,新加坡船燃销量同比下滑1.7%,中国保税船燃加注需求同比 降1%，但同时国内炼厂生产船燃积极性亦低迷,截至7月供应同比下降19%。新加坡陆上燃料油库存、富查伊拉燃料 油库存环比均下降,库存压力呈现缓解态势。基本面整体较此前影响偏利多。因俄罗斯、伊朗仍陷于地缘冲突，高 硫资源受地缘溢价支撑跌幅相对较克制,FU裂解仍有支撑。 【沥青】 | 11/11/2 国家期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月27日 | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 | | 李祖智 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Financial Futures and Options**: The global risk sentiment is boosted by the Fed's dovish stance, and the A - share market shows positive signs in terms of funds and policies. The bond market is affected by factors such as capital liquidity, the stock - bond relationship, and economic fundamentals [1][3]. - **Commodity Futures and Options**: Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, nickel is expected to trade in a range, while industrial silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum are expected to show a relatively strong performance [4][6][12]. - **Black and Building Materials**: The prices of steel products are under pressure due to changes in raw material supply - demand and limited policy - driven production cuts [15][17]. - **Agricultural and Livestock Products**: The sugar market shows different trends at home and abroad, and the protein meal market is affected by factors such as crop yields and trade policies [18][20]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The LPG market is affected by supply, demand, and cost factors, and the PVC market is influenced by cost, supply, demand, and inventory factors [24][27]. 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM)**: - **Intraday View**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [1] - **Medium - term View**: Bullish - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in IF2509 and buy IO - 4300 - P put options for protection - **Core Logic**: Dovish Fed stance, high market trading volume, and positive policies [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL)**: - **Intraday View**: Fluctuate widely and wait for a rebound - **Medium - term View**: Accumulate strength for a rebound - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in TL2512 - **Core Logic**: Ample capital liquidity, the stock - bond relationship, and slow economic recovery [2][3] Commodity Futures and Options - **Nickel**: - **Intraday View**: Trade in the range of 118,000 - 124,000 - **Medium - term View**: Trade in the range of 115,000 - 132,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Sell N2509I - C - 124000 and NI2509 - P - 116000 - **Core Logic**: Complex supply - demand factors, including production in Indonesia, stainless - steel production, and battery demand [4][5] - **Industrial Silicon**: - **Intraday View**: Run strongly in the range of 8,700 - 9,000 - **Medium - term View**: Run strongly in the range of 8,500 - 9,500 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a bullish approach - **Core Logic**: Decreased production, decreased demand, high inventory, and industry initiatives [6][7] - **Polysilicon**: - **Intraday View**: Run strongly in the range of 50,000 - 53,000 - **Medium - term View**: Run strongly in the range of 45,000 - 65,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a bullish approach - **Core Logic**: Decreased production, decreased demand, high inventory, and "anti - involution" expectations [8][9][11] - **Aluminum**: - **Intraday View**: Trade at a high level in the range of 20,600 - 20,900 - **Medium - term View**: Run strongly in the range of 19,500 - 21,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Sell AL2509 - P - 19300 put options - **Core Logic**: Limited production capacity increase, low inventory, and strong demand in the automotive market [12] - **Lithium Carbonate**: - **Intraday View**: Fluctuate widely in the range of 75,000 - 85,000 - **Medium - term View**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias in the range of 70,000 - 100,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a bullish approach - **Core Logic**: High supply, high inventory, and price fluctuations affected by industry information [13] Black and Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: - **Intraday View**: Decline in the short term but with limited downside space - **Medium - term View**: Lack of upward momentum - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold short positions in out - of - the - money put options on rebar, such as RB2510 - P - 2900 - **Core Logic**: Changes in raw material supply - demand and limited policy - driven production cuts [15][17] Agricultural and Livestock Products - **Sugar**: - **Intraday View**: Weak performance - **Medium - term View**: Strong support at the bottom - **Reference Strategy**: The price has strong support at the bottom - **Core Logic**: Different trends at home and abroad, with potential supply increases in major producing countries [18] - **Protein Meal**: - **Intraday View**: The price of soybean meal 2601 will continue to oscillate in the range of [3075, 3175] - **Medium - term View**: The price of soybean meal 2601 will fluctuate sharply in August and September - **Reference Strategy**: Exit the short - soybean meal 2601 and long - rapeseed meal 2601 strategy; continue to hold the short - soybean oil 2601 and long - palm oil 2601 strategy - **Core Logic**: Crop yields in North America and trade policies between the US and China [20][22] Energy and Chemicals - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: - **Intraday View**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias - **Medium - term View**: Face pressure - **Reference Strategy**: Hold short positions in out - of - the - money call options on PG2510 - **Core Logic**: Decreased supply, low demand, and rising costs in the short term, but an overall loose supply - demand pattern in the long term [24][25] - **PVC**: - **Intraday View**: Stabilize and rebound - **Medium - term View**: Supported at the bottom - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold short positions in out - of - the - money put options on PVC - **Core Logic**: Rising raw material costs, decreased supply, weak demand, high inventory, and potential export changes [27][28][29]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, but with limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Fuel Oil: ★☆★ (the specific meaning is not clearly defined in the context) [1] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, but with limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, but with limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: ☆☆☆ (suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor trading opportunities, advisable to wait and see) [1] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical factors such as sanctions on Iran's oil exports and the stagnation of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have led to price fluctuations in the energy market. Short - term geopolitical risks remain uncertain, and investors are advised to use appropriate strategies to manage risks [1]. - The fundamentals of different energy products vary. Some show signs of supply - demand balance improvement, while others face challenges such as cost pressure and high inventory [1][2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices continued to rise, with the SC10 contract up 0.55% during the day. Sanctions on Iran's oil exports and the stagnation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks have led to a re - evaluation of the market's previous pricing of geopolitical easing. It is recommended to hold a long - straddle strategy for out - of - the - money options to hedge risks and then enter medium - term short positions after the volatility increases [1]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - On Friday, affected by the news of increased US sanctions on Iran's oil exports, oil product futures strengthened. FU rose more than 3% in the early trading session, and LU rose nearly 1%. As of the end of July, Singapore's marine fuel sales decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and China's bonded marine fuel bunkering demand decreased by 1% year - on - year. However, domestic refineries' enthusiasm for producing marine fuel was also low, with supply down 19% year - on - year as of July. Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory decreased by 6.5% month - on - month, and Fujairah's fuel oil inventory decreased by 17.5% month - on - month. The fundamentals are generally more bullish, and the price spread between different varieties has changed [2]. Asphalt - Sanctions on Iran's oil have led to a stronger geopolitical premium for crude oil, and asphalt prices have followed suit, with the main contract approaching the short - term upper boundary. Since mid - August, the diversion effect of US imports of Venezuelan oil on North Asian resources has increased. Sinopec's asphalt production has shown a widening year - on - year decline due to increased deep - processing loads. In August, the shipment volume of sample refineries increased by 8% year - on - year, breaking the growth bottleneck from June to July. Leading indicators such as the issuance of special bonds for new toll roads and the cumulative domestic sales of road rollers have improved significantly year - on - year, indicating potential demand for asphalt. The basis has declined due to the strengthening of the futures market and the stability of spot prices. The asphalt market's fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and its price trend mainly follows that of crude oil [2]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The overseas market has recently stabilized. Although exports are increasing, the procurement demand in East Asia supported by strong chemical profits provides support. In China, the volume of imported liquefied petroleum gas arriving at ports and the volume released by refineries have increased, putting pressure on domestic - produced gas. After the decline of naphtha prices, the cost advantage of propane has been continuously weakened. With the expected decline in chemical profit margins in the future, the sustainability of the current high operating rate should be monitored. With a high level of warehouse receipts, the upward pressure is relatively strong, and the high - basis pattern can continue, maintaining a volatile trend [3].

日度报告——综合晨报 8 月 LPR 报价持稳 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-08-21 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美联储会议纪要：大多数委员认为通胀比就业风险更令人担忧 美联储利率纪要显示大多数委员还是更关心通胀，因此维持利 率水平不变，美元继续震荡。 宏观策略（国债期货） 8 月 LPR 报价持稳 近期会议政策相对较为密集，预计股市仍将偏强运行，债市表 现应是偏弱的。短线以偏空思路对待，博弈反弹需谨慎。 综 农产品（豆粕） 合 Pro Farmer 田间巡查第二天结果 晨 报 Pro Farmer 田间巡查显示美豆单产前景良好，显示 CBOT 大豆涨 幅。国内豆粕需求好于预期，油厂豆粕库存同比下降。 有色金属（碳酸锂） 中国 7 月碳酸锂进口量同比减少 42.67% 多头挤兑式平仓、盘面跌停，当前价格已回吐了枧下窝停产以 来的大部分涨幅，而基本面并无实质性超预期利空。 能源化工（液化石油气） 韩国计划重组石脑油裂解产能 消息面影响下周三 PG 合约走强，基本面支撑有限。 | 杨云兰 | 高级分析师 （农产品） | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： [Table_Anal ...

【8月20日大商所多品种期货仓单有变化】8月20日，大商所公布品种仓单及变化情况。苯乙烯期货仓单 637手，环比持平；豆一期货仓单12397手，环比减少100手。 豆二期货仓单2300手，环比减少300手； 聚氯乙烯期货仓单82031手，环比增加1233手。 液化石油气期货仓单13298手，环比减少20手；豆粕期 货仓单10925手，环比持平。 玉米淀粉期货仓单7450手，环比持平；焦煤期货仓单0手，环比持平。 棕 榈油期货仓单1404手，环比减少16手；鸡蛋期货仓单0手，环比持平。 玉米期货仓单110775手，环比减 少2706手；铁矿石期货仓单2000手，环比减少500手。 乙二醇期货仓单2092手，环比增加20手；聚乙烯 期货仓单7684手，环比减少40手。 聚丙烯期货仓单13940手，环比减少100手；豆油期货仓单15310手， 环比持平。 焦炭期货仓单820手，环比持平；生猪期货仓单430手，环比持平。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

Core Insights - The main contract for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) closed at 2509 on August 5, with a decrease of 1.94% and a trading volume of 94,300 contracts, indicating a net short position among the top 20 positions with a difference of 7,148 contracts [1][3]. Trading Volume and Positions - Total trading volume for all LPG contracts reached 146,400 contracts, an increase of 4,721 contracts from the previous day [1][4]. - The top 20 positions for long holdings amounted to 149,100 contracts, increasing by 1,240 contracts, while short holdings reached 161,700 contracts, increasing by 1,440 contracts [1][4]. Major Players - The top three long positions were held by: - CITIC Futures with a total holding of 23,248 contracts - Guotai Junan with 21,420 contracts - Guotou Futures with 11,817 contracts [1][4]. - The top three short positions were held by: - CITIC Futures with 29,072 contracts - Guotai Junan with 26,757 contracts - Dongzheng Futures with 13,659 contracts [1][4]. Changes in Positions - Among the top 20 positions, the largest increases in long positions were from: - CITIC Jiantou with an increase of 870 contracts - Huishang Futures with an increase of 526 contracts - Zhejiang New Century with an increase of 520 contracts [1][3]. - The largest decreases in long positions were from: - Dongzheng Futures with a decrease of 1,023 contracts - Guotai Junan with a decrease of 361 contracts - Galaxy Futures with a decrease of 230 contracts [1][3]. Short Position Changes - The largest increases in short positions were from: - Huatai Futures with an increase of 1,527 contracts - Shanghai Dongya with an increase of 850 contracts - Haitong Futures with an increase of 470 contracts [1][3]. - The largest decreases in short positions were from: - Shenyin Wanguo with a decrease of 262 contracts - Zheshang Futures with a decrease of 254 contracts [1][3].

每经AI快讯，8月5日，液化石油气期货主力日内跌幅达到2.01%，报3842元/吨。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Copper prices are influenced by U.S. non - farm data increasing the expectation of a September interest rate cut, a weaker dollar, and a low inventory in China. The market is overall weak, and attention should be paid to the support level of 78,000 yuan/ton [7] Lithium Carbonate - The market sentiment is cooling, and the market is currently oscillating strongly. If the news of supply - side production cuts is false, the market may turn weak [8] Crude Oil - Due to the seasonal peak travel season and low U.S. crude oil inventories, but with an unexpected large increase in U.S. crude oil stocks and OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, crude oil prices are expected to oscillate [10] Asphalt - With开工率 changes, inventory status, and cost factors, asphalt is expected to oscillate in the near term [11][12] PP - Given factors such as downstream开工率, supply, cost, and policy expectations, PP is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13] Plastic - Considering开工率, demand, cost, and policy factors, plastic is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15] PVC - With supply, demand, inventory, and policy conditions, PVC is expected to oscillate downward, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16] Coking Coal - Although the market sentiment is cooling, due to the expectation of supply tightening, the downward space for coking coal price correction is limited [18] Urea - The market is oscillating, and future trends depend on the purchasing progress of compound fertilizer plants and export conditions. The 09 contract has limited upward and downward space [19] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of August 4, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends. Logs and coking coal rose by over 2%, while eggs fell by over 4%. In terms of capital flow, CSI 1000 2509 had an inflow of 1.063 billion yuan, while CSI 300 2509 had an outflow of 1.092 billion yuan [4] Copper - The U.S. non - farm data increased the probability of a September interest rate cut. China's copper production increased in July, and the TC/RC fee stopped falling. The market is in a slack season with weak demand, and the inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is low [7] Lithium Carbonate - The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. The supply - side开工率 increased, and there is an expected reduction in supply. The cost support is weakening, and downstream demand is expected to increase [8] Crude Oil - It's the seasonal peak travel season, and U.S. crude oil inventories are low. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, and the IEA has adjusted the global crude oil surplus for 2025 [10] Asphalt - The开工率 of asphalt production has rebounded, and the expected production in August has decreased. The downstream开工率 varies, and the inventory of asphalt refineries is at a low level. The cost support is weakening [11][12] PP - The downstream开工率 of PP has slightly increased, and the enterprise开工率 has risen. The upstream propane import is restricted, and there is new production capacity. The downstream recovery is slow, and the inventory pressure is high [13] Plastic - The plastic开工率 is at a neutral level, and the downstream开工率 has increased slightly. There is new production capacity, and the downstream is in a slack season with weak demand and high inventory [14][15] PVC - The PVC开工率 has increased slightly, and the downstream开工率 is low. Exports are affected by policies, and the social inventory is high. The real - estate market is still in adjustment [16] Coking Coal - The coking coal price showed a mixed trend. The supply from Mongolia is high, and the domestic coal production has not significantly decreased. The inventory is being transferred downward, and the downstream demand may be affected by the decline in iron - water production [18] Urea - The urea price weekend decline attracted orders. The production is expected to decrease slightly, and the demand from compound fertilizer plants is increasing. The inventory has started to accumulate [19]

7月15日，国内期市能化板块跌幅居前。其中，液化石油气期货主力合约开盘报4203.00元/吨，今日盘 中低位震荡运行；截至发稿，液化石油气主力最高触及4224.00元，下方探低4111.00元，跌幅达1.60% 附近。 中辉期货指出，成本端油价回落，美国丙烷供给充足，液化气偏弱。成本端油价回落，美国丙烷处于消 费淡季，供给相对充足；下游燃烧需求处于淡季，化工需求有所下降，PDH开工率连降两周。策略：轻 仓布局空单。PG【4100-4200】。 目前来看，液化石油气行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于液化石油气后市行情将如何运行， 相关机构观点汇总如下： 中财期货表示，LPG进口维持高位，下游需求有所恢复但开工维持同期偏低水平，成本端支撑削弱，预 计震荡偏弱。山东民用气价格在4477元/吨，环比-7元/吨，周内化工需求预计尚可，PDH开工有所恢 复，但仍处于同期偏低位置，MTBE与烷基化装置开工尚可，下周期油价在OPEC增产短期延续，美国 关税对于油价的负反馈影响下或有下行可能。 华联期货分析称，基本面LPG国产商品量环比继续回落，略低于去年水平。库存低位反弹，港口库容率 反弹至近年区间中位。炼厂库容率虽然 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading operability) [1] - Fuel Oil: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor trading operability, with a recommendation to wait and see) [1] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, similar to fuel oil) [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ (One star, bullish bias but limited trading operability) [1] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG): ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, balanced short - term trend and poor trading operability) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a judgment of a moderately bullish trend for crude oil in the third quarter, but the upside space for Brent crude above $70 per barrel is limited. For fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, the unilateral and crack spreads are weakening. The asphalt fundamentals are weakening, and its upside space is restricted. LPG is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [2][3][4] Summary by Related Categories Crude Oil - Crude oil futures continued to be strong, with the SC08 contract rising 0.54%. Last week, the US EIA crude oil inventory unexpectedly increased by 7.07 million barrels. Although OPEC+ is increasing production and the global oil inventory is accumulating, the peak - season demand for refined oil in the third quarter, the relatively small impact of macro - level tariffs, and the increased frequency of Houthi ship attacks in the Red Sea support the price. The report maintains a judgment of a moderately bullish trend for crude oil in the third quarter, but the upside space for Brent above $70 per barrel is limited [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, crude oil led the rise in refined oil futures, with the strength order being SC>BU>LU>FU. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the demand for ship bunkering and deep - processing is weak, and the demand for power generation in the Middle East and North Africa in summer fails to boost it. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply benefit from the diversion effect due to the decline in coking profit has disappeared, and the demand lacks a clear driver, with the crack spread declining [2] Asphalt - In June, the actual refinery output exceeded the production plan by 100,000 tons (+4.3%), and the commercial inventory started to accumulate in late June. In July, the shipment volume of 54 sample refineries decreased slightly month - on - month, and the year - on - year increase in cumulative shipment volume since the beginning of the year dropped from 8% to 7%. The overall demand recovery is expected to be delayed. The asphalt price mainly follows the direction of crude oil, but the weakening fundamentals limit its upside space [3] LPG - The international market supply is generally loose, and the price is stable. The new maintenance last week led to a decline in chemical demand, but the decline in import costs promoted the repair of PDH gross profit. The supply pressure continues in summer, and the upside power of the futures price is limited, so it is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [4]