Key Insights - The report highlights the ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran, with President Trump indicating a potential agreement to pause attacks on Iranian energy facilities for five days, although Iran denies these discussions [2] - The Chinese government has implemented temporary price controls on refined oil for the first time in 13 years, with adjustments leading to a decrease of 1160 RMB per ton for gasoline and 1115 RMB per ton for diesel [2] - South Korea plans to impose export controls on naphtha due to instability in supply caused by tensions in the Middle East, and will release strategic oil reserves in mid-April [2] - The total volume of iron ore arriving at 47 Chinese ports increased to 23.83 million tons from March 16 to March 22, a week-on-week increase of 661,000 tons [2] Market Performance - The report provides a detailed overview of various commodity sectors, with notable performances including non-metallic building materials up by 2.57%, precious metals up by 25.02%, and energy sector up by 8.79% [4] - The report also notes significant changes in futures contracts, with adjustments in trading margins and price limits for liquefied petroleum gas futures [3] Asset Class Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a daily decline of 3.63% and a monthly decline of 8.40%, while the S&P 500 showed a slight increase of 1.15% on the same day [6] - The report indicates that WTI crude oil prices fell by 9.54% in the daily performance, but showed a year-to-date increase of 54.54% [6] - The CRB commodity index decreased by 4.46% in the daily performance but has increased by 17.39% year-to-date [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Despite Trump's possible postponement of the planned visit to China, the stable pattern of Sino - US relations this year might not change, and potential outcomes could include tariff arrangements, bilateral trade and investment arrangements, and an extension of the "truce period". Domestically, Trump may intensify economic and industrial policies and forcefully promote constituency redrawing and the SAVE America Act, leading to more intense political games [29]. - After the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, global bond markets have adjusted significantly, especially the short - end of European bonds. The Chinese bond market is relatively stable, and its trend depends on the domestic fundamentals, monetary policy, and supply - demand relationship. It is slightly weak but has limited adjustment space. When the ten - year treasury bond enters the 1.85 - 1.9% range, trading opportunities can be grasped. It is recommended to use medium - and short - term credit bonds as the bottom position, trade long - term interest rates based on odds, and pay attention to structural opportunities such as the steepening of the yield curve and the compression of tax spreads. Convertible bonds should be kept at a low allocation [29]. - Given the possible situation of "rising oil prices - rising inflation - the Federal Reserve pausing rate cuts or even raising rates - increasing possibility of stagflation or even recession", current asset prices may not fully reflect this, and there is a need to be vigilant about potential deep - seated adjustments. In the short term, the development of the Iranian situation should be closely monitored [29]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Data Quick View - In Q4 2025, GDP at constant prices increased by 4.5% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter's 4.8% and the same period last year's 5.4% [1]. - In February 2026, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down from the previous month's 49.2% and the same period last year's 50.2%. The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, unchanged from the previous month but lower than the same period last year's 50.4% [1]. - In February 2026, the monthly value of social financing scale was 2385.5 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous month's 2492.6 billion yuan but higher than the same period last year's 2233.1 billion yuan [1]. - In February 2026, M0, M1, and M2 increased by 14.1%, 5.9%, and 9.0% year - on - year respectively, all higher than the previous month and the same period last year. The monthly value of new RMB loans by financial institutions was 900 billion yuan, higher than the previous month's 390 billion yuan but lower than the same period last year's 1010 billion yuan [1]. - In February 2026, CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year, up from the previous month's 0.7% and turning positive from the same period last year's - 0.7%. PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, an improvement from the previous month's - 2.2% and the same period last year's - 2.2% [1]. - In February 2026, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completed was 1.8%, turning positive from the previous year's - 2.6% but lower than the same period last year's 4.1%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 2.8%, lower than the previous month's 4.0% and the same period last year's 4.0% [1]. - In February 2026, export and import amounts increased by 39.60% and 13.80% year - on - year respectively, significantly higher than the previous month and the same period last year [1]. 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - The Shanghai Gold Exchange warned of significant price fluctuations in precious metals and urged member units to prepare risk - response plans and advised investors to control positions and invest rationally [2]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the daily limit and trading margin levels of liquefied petroleum gas futures contracts starting from the settlement on March 24, 2026 [2]. - The US - Iran negotiation situation is unclear. Trump claimed to have reached an agreement framework and will suspend attacks on Iranian energy facilities for 5 days, but Iran denied having negotiations [2][3]. - On March 23, 2026, 28 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 39 had negative basis. The basis of Shanghai tin, Shanghai nickel, and cast aluminum alloy was the largest, while that of apples, propylene, and butadiene rubber was the smallest [3]. - Trump's remarks on US - Iran negotiations caused a shock in global financial markets. Crude oil prices plunged, US Treasury yields declined, and precious metals rebounded [4]. Metals - There was a market rumor about the low pass - rate of lithium carbonate in the delivery warehouse of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, but the exchange stated that all in - warehouse goods met the delivery quality standards [5]. - On March 23, 2026, the domestic gold price fell below 1000 yuan/gram, and the prices of gold jewelry from major brands continued to decline [5]. - Last week, the gold price dropped by over 10% cumulatively, hitting the largest single - week decline since February 1983. On March 23, the spot gold price further dropped below the 4100 - dollar/ounce mark, erasing all gains in 2026 [6]. - Battery - grade lithium carbonate prices showed a downward trend in the week, and it is expected to fluctuate between 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton in the future [6]. - Posco International plans to build a global supply chain for heavy rare - earth elements, invest in a domestic rare - earth refining enterprise, and strengthen its global procurement network in Southeast Asia [7]. - The US will contribute $250 million to a supply - chain investment fund for energy and rare - earth fields [7]. - On March 20, 2026, copper inventory reached a new high in 7 years and 10 months, while aluminum, nickel, and other metal inventories decreased [7]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Coke prices in Shandong, Xingtai, and Yuncheng are planned to increase, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton starting from March 25, 2026 [8]. Energy and Chemicals - The state implemented temporary price controls on refined oil products on March 23, 2026. The actual increase in gasoline and diesel prices was lower than the calculated increase [9]. - China will adhere to the integrated development of multiple energy sources and build a safe and resilient energy system during the 15th Five - Year Plan period [9][10]. - The US crude oil exports in March 2026 are expected to reach a record 4.6 million barrels per day [11]. - The International Energy Agency is consulting with member countries on releasing oil reserves again, but it warned that this cannot fundamentally solve the supply shortage problem [11]. - The US Energy Secretary believes the possibility of releasing strategic oil reserves again is very low and that the impact of the blocked Hormuz Strait on global energy flow is "short - term" [11]. - The chairman of the Japanese Petroleum Association called for releasing more oil reserves and requested the government to do so [11]. Agricultural Products - Seven departments jointly deployed the work of cracking down on fake agricultural supplies for spring plowing in 2026 to ensure food security and agricultural production [12]. - From January to February 2026, the national industrial feed production was 51.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The prices of major feed products showed mixed trends [12]. - As of last Thursday, 68% of the 2025/26 soybean planting area in Brazil had been harvested [12]. 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - On March 23, 2026, the central bank conducted 8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.40%. After deducting the 137.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due on the same day, the net withdrawal was 129.3 billion yuan [13]. Key News - President Xi Jinping inspected Xiongan New Area and emphasized promoting the high - quality construction and development of Xiongan, advancing the relocation of non - capital functions from Beijing, and providing policy support for relocated projects [14]. - Minister of Finance Lan Fuan stated that fiscal policy will focus more on investing in people, increasing support for people's well - being, and improving the proportion of public service expenditures and government investment in people's livelihood [14]. - Wang Yi met with the UK Prime Minister's National Security Advisor and emphasized promoting the stable development of China - UK relations based on the consensus of the two leaders [15]. - The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors optimized the registration and issuance mechanism for debt financing tools of basic - layer enterprises, including unified registration, expanding the high - quality enterprise scope, and providing different support for different - level enterprises [16]. - In the first two months of 2026, the added value of industries above the designated size in Jiangsu increased by 8% year - on - year, with significant growth in equipment manufacturing, high - tech manufacturing, etc. [16]. - The National Development and Reform Commission implemented temporary price controls on refined oil products to mitigate the impact of rising international oil prices and protect downstream users [17]. - The tense situation in the Middle East has affected the global shipping industry, leading to a shortage of shipping space and rising freight rates. Chinese foreign - trade and logistics enterprises are adjusting their transportation routes and market layouts [17]. - As of March 23, 2026, 20 A - share listed companies have announced convertible bond issuance plans, with a total issuance scale of over 31 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 230% [18]. - Gansu Province plans to issue 63.5 billion yuan of local bonds in the second quarter of 2026 [19]. - The US may launch a ground military operation against Iran's Kharg Island, and Iran warns that it will take countermeasures if attacked [20]. - There were multiple bond events, including the invalidation of bondholder meetings of Pingxiang Huifeng Investment, the passing of the early redemption proposal of "22 Changle Special Bond", etc. [21]. - There were overseas credit rating changes, such as S&P confirming Poly Developments' "BBB" rating, and Fitch revoking Taiyuan Longcheng Development Investment Group's "BBB" rating [22]. Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market in China was under pressure, with most yields of major interest - rate bonds rising. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures contract closed up, and the money market was stable and loose [23]. - In the exchange bond market, some bonds fell, while others rose. The CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index both declined [24]. - Most money - market interest rates showed mixed trends, and Shibor short - end varieties also showed different performances [25][26]. - The winning bid yields of some financial bonds issued by the China Development Bank and the Agricultural Development Bank of China were announced, along with their full - field and marginal multiples [26]. - European and US bond yields generally declined [27]. Foreign Exchange Market Express - On March 23, 2026, the on - shore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell, and the US dollar index also declined. Non - US currencies showed mixed trends [28]. Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the stable pattern of Sino - US relations may remain unchanged this year, and Trump may intensify domestic political games [29]. - Huatai Fixed - Income believes that the Chinese bond market is relatively stable, and it is recommended to adjust the bond investment strategy according to different bond types [29]. - Guosheng Macro's Xiong Yuan warns of potential deep - seated adjustments in asset prices and suggests closely monitoring the Iranian situation [29]. Today's Reminders - On March 24, 2026, 220 bonds will be listed, 185 bonds will be issued, 103 bonds will make payments, and 327 bonds will pay principal and interest [30]. 4. Stock Market Key News - On March 23, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all fell significantly. The market turnover was 2.45 trillion yuan. Precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and other sectors led the decline, while coal stocks and some concepts bucked the trend [32]. - A - share market fluctuated sharply on Monday, but many institutions are optimistic about the long - term trend of A - shares, believing that China has advantages in energy security and supply - chain resilience [32]. - The Hong Kong stock market declined unilaterally, with the Hang Seng Index hitting an 8 - month low. All sectors fell, and southbound funds had a net purchase of over HK$29.7 billion [32].

Group 1 - The Chinese government is urging all parties to cease military actions in the Middle East to prevent further escalation and protect global economic development [2][3] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced temporary adjustments to domestic fuel prices due to significant increases in international oil prices, with gasoline and diesel prices adjusted by approximately 0.87 yuan and 0.95 yuan per liter, respectively [3] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has adjusted the price fluctuation limits and margin levels for liquefied petroleum gas futures contracts, increasing the fluctuation limit from 11% to 14% for certain contracts [4] Group 2 - China Bank is enhancing risk prevention measures in the precious metals market [6] - Several funds, including E Fund and Jiashi, will be suspended from trading on March 24 until 10:30 AM [7][8][9] - WuXi AppTec reported a 105.2% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2025 and plans to distribute a dividend of 15.7927 yuan per share [10] - Fuxiang Pharmaceutical expects a year-on-year net profit increase of 2222.67% to 3250.01% for the first quarter [11] - Huate Gas anticipates limited impact on its 2026 performance from price increases of certain gas products [12] - Dashengda's stock price is significantly deviating from its fundamentals, indicating a risk of rapid decline [13] - Wantong Kai is planning to acquire 100% equity of Zeng Rui Zhi Control and will be suspended from trading starting March 24 [14] - Libet has signed three significant contracts with its subsidiaries [15] Group 3 - Zijin Mining repurchased 21 million A-shares on March 23 [19] - Yongguan New Materials' actual controller plans to increase shareholding by 50 million to 100 million yuan [19] - Changyuan Donggu is planning to acquire 100% equity of Xiangyang Kanghao Electromechanical Engineering Company and will be suspended from trading starting March 24 [19] - Huadian Liaoning Energy has seen a cumulative increase of 89.81% over ten trading days, with no significant changes in daily operations [19] - Cangge Mining plans to repurchase shares worth 200 million to 400 million yuan [19]

Report Overview - The report is a daily analysis of core futures varieties, released on March 16, 2026 [3] Commodity Performance - As of the close on January 16, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Asphalt rose over 10%, bottle chips rose over 7%, ethylene glycol (EG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rose over 3%, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), propylene, polypropylene (PP), plastic, and palm oil rose over 2%. In terms of declines, Shanghai silver fell over 6%, palladium fell over 4%, platinum, container shipping on the European line, rapeseed meal, polysilicon, Shanghai tin, and live pigs fell over 3%, and glass and Shanghai gold fell over 2% [6] - Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 index futures (IF) main contract rose 0.08%, the SSE 50 index futures (IH) main contract fell 0.26%, the CSI 500 index futures (IC) main contract fell 0.62%, and the CSI 1000 index futures (IM) main contract fell 0.23%. Among treasury bond futures, the 2-year treasury bond futures (TS) main contract fell 0.04%, the 5-year treasury bond futures (TF) main contract fell 0.08%, the 10-year treasury bond futures (T) main contract fell 0.11%, and the 30-year treasury bond futures (TL) main contract fell 0.43% [7] Market Analysis Copper - Shanghai copper opened and closed lower. Tensions in the Middle East remain high, and if the conflict continues, inflation pressure will rise, strengthening the US dollar and suppressing copper prices. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, and the expectation of three interest rate cuts this year has converged to one, providing weak support for copper prices [9] - In February 2026, China imported 2.31 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 6.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 12.0%. From January to February 2026, China imported 4.934 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. Domestic copper concentrate inventories are at a relatively low level compared to previous years, and the shortage of copper resources still supports copper prices [9] - The spread between refined and scrap copper in mainstream areas has narrowed. The output of electrolytic copper in March increased by 52,800 tons month-on-month and 6.51% year-on-year. On the demand side, the copper product sector has seen an increase in开工 after the "Golden March and Silver April." However, terminal data shows no optimistic performance, and the feedback on copper prices from the terminal is weak. New energy vehicle production and sales decreased by 21.8% and 14.2% year-on-year respectively [9] - Overall, copper prices are expected to be weak this week. If the war continues and inflation expectations rise, copper prices will remain weak. If the situation eases, copper prices may rebound [10] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened and closed lower today but rebounded at the end of the session. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 156,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,500 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 153,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,500 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day [11] - Lithium concentrate exports from all lithium producers in Zimbabwe have been suspended. Local lithium mining companies are submitting new export license applications to the Zimbabwean government, and the approval process is expected to take 2 to 4 weeks. The domestic production schedule in March 2026 is 106,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 29.4%. There is a high probability of复产 in the domestic lithium mining sector, which is a potential negative factor [11] - Overall inventory continues to decline, but the decline rate is narrowing. Downstream inventory continues to accumulate, but the accumulation rate has slowed down. Terminal demand shows a marginal weakening trend. Overall, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are marginally weakening. If the news of the new export license application is confirmed, the previous gains may be reversed. The supply is expected to continue to increase, while the demand is approaching the photovoltaic tariff window period. The market is expected to be in a wide range of fluctuations in the short term [11] Crude Oil - EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, but the decrease in refined oil inventories was significant, resulting in an overall decrease in oil product inventories [12] - The US, Israel, and Iran are still attacking each other. Iran's daily oil production is about 3.3 million barrels, accounting for 3% of global production, and its daily exports are about 1.6 million barrels. The Strait of Hormuz, where Iran is located, is a major shipping route for crude oil. The near-complete suspension of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz for several days has led to production cuts in Middle Eastern oil-producing countries [12][13] - Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait have cut production by up to 6.7 million barrels per day, equivalent to one-third of their total production capacity and about 6% of global supply. Although Trump said the war is basically over, Iran has stated that it controls the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and has fired on some merchant ships. The US Energy Secretary said it is "highly likely" to provide escort for ships in the Strait of Hormuz by the end of this month [13] - The IEA has announced the release of up to 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, but the delivery speed is slow. The US Treasury Department has temporarily relaxed sanctions on Russian maritime oil. These measures have alleviated short-term supply pressure, but are still less than the previous crude oil shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz. The risk of crude oil price spikes remains, and the frequent news of the Middle East situation has a significant impact on crude oil prices [13] Asphalt - On the supply side, the asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 23.0% last week, which is 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In March 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.187 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 251,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 43,000 tons [14] - After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the开工率 of most asphalt downstream industries increased. The national asphalt shipments increased by 12.67% to 176,100 tons, but are still at a low level. The asphalt plant inventory rate remained unchanged, and the asphalt refinery inventory rate is at the lowest level in recent years [14] - The price of asphalt in Shandong has been adjusted, and the basis has dropped to a relatively low level. The import of Venezuelan crude oil in China is expected to decrease significantly compared to before the US intervention, and the supply of Middle Eastern raw materials will be affected by the US-Israel attack on Iran. The market is concerned about the shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries in March [14] - Dongming Petrochemical has resumed production, and the asphalt开工率 has increased slightly. After the Lantern Festival, terminal demand has gradually recovered. The supply and demand of asphalt have both increased, and the cost support is significant. The market is focused on the tense situation in the Middle East, and the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed navigation. The expected production cuts of refineries have increased. It is expected that the asphalt price will follow the strong performance of crude oil prices in the near future, with large fluctuations [15] PP - As of the week of March 13, the downstream开工率 of PP decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 45.71%. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream's acceptance of high-priced raw materials is not high, and the demand recovery is slow. However, the开工率 of the main downstream plastic products of PP continued to increase by 2.88 percentage points to 40.54% [16] - On March 16, some parking devices such as the first-phase second-line of Zhongjing Petrochemical restarted, and the PP enterprise开工率 increased to about 77.5%, which is at a relatively low level. The production ratio of standard-grade PP decreased to about 23.5%. After the Spring Festival holiday, the petrochemical inventory has continued to decline, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [16] - On the cost side, although the IEA has announced the release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow. The crude oil price has continued to rebound due to the attacks on multiple ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the statement of the Iranian Supreme Leader to continue to block the Strait of Hormuz. The number of parking devices has increased recently. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream rigid demand has been released intensively, and the price of downstream BOPP films has increased [16] - The domestic supply and demand pattern of PP has improved, and there is still an expectation of anti-involution in the chemical industry. The Middle East situation has boosted the energy and chemical industry. Although PP does not rely on Middle Eastern imports, its upstream depends on Middle Eastern liquefied petroleum gas and crude oil. The shortage of raw materials has led to an increase in the reduction of olefin devices at home and abroad. The downstream has shown resistance to high prices, and the spot trading is weak. However, under the high sentiment of the chemical industry, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the reduction of refineries will further increase. The PP price is likely to rise rather than fall in the near future [16] Plastic - On March 16, there was little change in the parking devices, and the plastic开工率 remained at about 87.5%, which is at a neutral level. As of the week of March 13, the downstream开工率 of PE increased by 5.21 percentage points to 33.83%. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream has gradually resumed production, but has not yet returned to the pre-holiday level. The overall downstream开工率 of PE shows seasonal changes [17][18] - After the Spring Festival holiday, the petrochemical inventory has continued to decline, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. On the cost side, although the IEA has announced the release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow. The crude oil price has continued to rebound due to the attacks on multiple ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the statement of the Iranian Supreme Leader to continue to block the Strait of Hormuz [18] - In terms of supply, the new production capacity of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA was put into production in January 2026. There are no plans to put new production capacity into operation in the first quarter. The plastic开工率 has decreased recently. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream factories have increased their resumption of work, and the rigid demand has been released intensively. The prices of agricultural films in North China, East China, and South China have all increased [18] - The domestic supply and demand pattern of plastic has improved, and there is still an expectation of anti-involution in the chemical industry. The Middle East situation has boosted the energy and chemical industry. Iranian PE imports account for about 8% of China's total imports and about 3% of domestic production. The imports from the entire Middle East region account for about 20% of domestic production. The shortage of raw materials has led to an increase in the reduction of olefin devices at home and abroad. The downstream has shown resistance to high prices, and the procurement has become more cautious. The spot trading is weak. However, under the high sentiment of the chemical industry, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the reduction of refineries will further increase. The plastic price is likely to rise rather than fall in the near future [18] PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the upstream northwest region has increased by 50 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the PVC开工率 increased by 0.24 percentage points to 81.35%, and the PVC开工率 has increased, but is still at a neutral to high level in recent years. After the third week of the Spring Festival holiday, the average downstream开工率 of PVC increased by 3.49 percentage points to 39.33%, which is 3.13 percentage points lower than the same period last year. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream has gradually resumed production [19] - In terms of exports, due to the increase in Asian market prices, export inquiries have improved. The social inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival holiday and continued to increase last week, and is still at a relatively high level. The inventory pressure is still large. From January to February 2026, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the year-on-year decline in investment, sales, new construction, and completion areas is still large. After the third week of the Spring Festival holiday, the commercial housing transactions have increased month-on-month, but are still at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. The improvement of the real estate market still takes time [19] - The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the social inventory continues to increase. However, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment has stated that it will focus on key links such as the research and development of mercury-free catalysts to accelerate the mercury-free transformation of the polyvinyl chloride industry. The supply of upstream raw materials for PVC is tight, and the prices of ethylene and calcium carbide continue to rise. There is an expectation of load reduction in the domestic and international PVC markets. This week, ethylene-based devices such as Xinpu Chemical and Zhejiang Jiahua will reduce their operating loads. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. Under the high sentiment of the chemical industry, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the PVC price is likely to rise rather than fall in the near future [19][20] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened and closed lower but closed higher on the day. Fundamentally, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased last week, and the domestic mine开工率 has reached 87.16%, a month-on-month increase of 4.84%. The production and开工率 are both at a relatively high level year-on-year. However, due to the impact of overseas military conflicts, the price of coking coal has increased, leading to an increase in the downstream's purchasing sentiment. The coking coal inventory has decreased significantly this period, a month-on-month decrease of 85,800 tons. The downstream coking enterprises and steel mills have replenished their inventories, a month-on-month increase of 199,800 tons and 19,900 tons respectively. However, the coke production has not increased significantly, and the steel mills' profitability has recovered, with the开工 rate increasing by 0.63%, but the start-up speed is slower than in previous years [21] - Although the fundamentals of coking coal have no upward driving force, it is still in a strong consolidation state recently due to the stimulation of inflation expectations and the expectation of energy shortage. If the Middle East situation shows no sign of stopping in the short term, the energy and chemical industry will remain strong. Otherwise, there is a risk of a rapid decline [21] Urea - The market sentiment was high last week, and the rise of futures and international urea has driven the enthusiasm of spot trading. Most regions remained stable this weekend. The ex-factory prices of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan range from 1,810 to 1,840 yuan/ton [22] - Fundamentally, the state reserve of urea has been released, and the daily production has continuously reached new highs. At present, the gas-based devices have basically completed their resumption of production, and there are sporadic shutdown plans for upstream factories. The resumption and shutdown are parallel, with basically no major changes. The raw material prices of compound fertilizers have all increased to varying degrees this week, and the terminal sales are smooth. The cost and demand have jointly driven the price of compound fertilizer products to rise. Although the开工 rate is gradually increasing, the finished product inventory is still decreasing. Although the topdressing of wheat during the greening period is basically over, subsequent products such as spring corn still require a large amount of high-nitrogen compound fertilizers. Although the increase in raw material prices has squeezed the factory profits, the high demand still corresponds to the high supply [22] - After the sharp increase, the downstream buys when the price rises and does not buy when the price falls, and the terminal sales are smooth. The upstream factory inventory has continued to decrease. Although the current daily production is higher than last year, the inventory has not shown a large increase due to the digestion of downstream demand and the drive of exports. Instead, it shows a looser situation than last year, with no obvious inventory pressure, which is an important reason to support the strong market. Overall, due to the combination of farming and the Middle East situation, urea shows a slight over-increase. Ensuring supply and stabilizing prices during the spring plowing season is still the main tone of the market. The opportunity for a significant increase in the future depends on the export quota after the end of the spring plowing season. It is expected to stabilize in the short term [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE), and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) have announced adjustments to trading limits, margin requirements, and price fluctuation limits for various futures contracts, effective from March 4, 2026 [2][5][6]. Group 1: Trading Limits Adjustments - For fuel oil futures, the maximum daily opening position for non-futures company members and foreign special non-broker participants is set at 6,000 lots [2]. - For crude oil futures, the maximum daily opening position is set at 1,200 lots, while for low-sulfur fuel oil futures, it is also 6,000 lots, and for the shipping index (European line), it is 50 lots [3][4]. Group 2: Margin and Price Fluctuation Adjustments - The price fluctuation limit for crude oil futures contracts (sc2607 to sc2903) is set at 12%, with a hedging margin requirement of 13% and a general margin requirement of 14% [5]. - Similarly, for low-sulfur fuel oil futures contracts (lu2604 to lu2703), the price fluctuation limit is also 12%, with the same margin requirements as crude oil [5]. Group 3: Market Performance - On March 3, multiple energy and chemical futures saw significant increases, with main contracts for crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, methanol, liquefied petroleum gas, and the shipping index (European line) reaching their daily limit [8].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy chemicals showed a significant decline, with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) futures main contract opening at 4203.00 CNY/ton and experiencing a drop of approximately 2.71% [1] - The highest price for LPG futures reached 4208.00 CNY/ton, while the lowest was 4115.00 CNY/ton during the trading session [1] Group 2 - Petrobras (Brazilian National Oil Company) projected a total oil and gas production of 2.99 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2025, exceeding its targets [2] - The Russian Ministry of Finance reported that the country's budget received 8.48 trillion rubles (approximately 108 billion USD) in oil and gas tax revenue last year, marking a 24% decrease from 2024 and the lowest level since 2020 [2] - The EIA reported that as of January 9, the total U.S. natural gas inventory was 31,850 billion cubic feet, a decrease of 710 billion cubic feet from the previous week, but an increase of 330 billion cubic feet year-on-year, reflecting a 1.0% increase [2] Group 3 - Market outlook for LPG futures indicates a bearish trend, with supply exceeding demand, leading to a downward price adjustment expected [3] - Zhonghui Futures noted that the cost side of oil prices has increased uncertainty in the short term, while the overall market sentiment remains bearish [3] - Ruida Futures highlighted that short-term supply and demand pressures are manageable, but volatility due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S.-Iran conflict, is expected to result in wide fluctuations in LPG prices [3]

Group 1 - The main contract for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) futures experienced a high-level fluctuation, reaching a peak of 4336.00 yuan, and closed at 4313.00 yuan with an increase of 1.82% [1] - According to Galaxy Futures, the LPG market may see a short-term rebound due to tight supply from the Middle East and rising Saudi CP prices, which exceeded market expectations [2] - Newhu Futures noted that the LPG market remains strong, with tight spot supply in January and February, and an expected increase in exports from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait in March [3] Group 2 - The ongoing geopolitical situation in Iran is influencing the LPG market positively, contributing to a stronger market outlook in the short term [3] - The domestic market is facing challenges with high import costs leading to continuous losses in PDH profits, which may result in a decrease in operating rates [2] - The supply-demand dynamics are expected to face a tug-of-war as foreign supply increases while new PDH facilities are set to come online domestically [3]

Group 1: Natural Gas Market - Azerbaijan exported over 25 billion cubic meters of natural gas last year and has the potential to increase export volumes further, with plans to supply two additional countries [1] - As of the week ending December 30, the net long positions of natural gas speculators decreased by 3,293 contracts to 123,988 contracts in the major markets [1] - On January 5, natural gas futures trading volume reached 828,902 contracts, an increase of 421,980 contracts from the previous trading day, with open interest rising by 5,107 contracts to 1,576,553 [1] Group 2: Oil and LPG Market - The oil market continues to price in geopolitical risks, with the Iranian situation being more directly impactful on the LPG market compared to the US-Venezuela conflict [2] - In the past week, Middle Eastern propane shipments remained low, while US inventories showed an unusual seasonal increase, putting some pressure on prices [2] - The overall supply remains tight domestically, with low port arrivals and continuous inventory depletion, while demand remains stable, particularly in the chemical sector [2] - Geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ production pauses, and concerns over future supply excess are causing fluctuations in international oil prices [3] - Limited Middle Eastern supply and peak demand in the Far East are supporting LPG prices, despite some refinery operational instability and increased external supply [3] - Short-term expectations indicate a decrease in port arrivals, with a potential increase in inventory due to lower temperatures boosting combustion demand [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that precious metals are expected to maintain an upward trend due to geopolitical conflicts, the onset of interest rate cuts, and the decline of the US dollar's credibility [1] - The market for platinum and palladium is supported by industrial properties, showing significant elasticity and notable price increases [1] - Key factors to monitor include the Federal Reserve's policy statements, the situation regarding the Fed chair candidates, and geopolitical changes [1] Group 2 - Current observations in the London market show no signs of liquidity exhaustion for palladium, unlike platinum, although the pace of ETF accumulation for palladium has slowed [2] - The domestic main contracts show mixed results, with platinum reaching the limit up, lithium carbonate and palladium rising over 5%, while ethylene glycol and liquefied gas fell over 1% [3] - The macroeconomic expectations of easing, combined with industrial support, suggest that prices are undervalued relative to gold, leading to a potential long-term upward trend despite short-term corrections [4]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals showed mixed results, with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) futures experiencing fluctuations, opening at 4142.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 4144.00 CNY before dropping to a low of 3996.00 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 2.00% [1] Group 2 - Kpler reported that Myanmar is expected to resume liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports next year, having received half a shipment last month, ending a four-year hiatus in LNG imports [2] - The Egyptian Ministry of Petroleum announced a new oil and gas exploration agreement with the UK-based Tullow Oil [2] - As of December 22, the Dalian Commodity Exchange recorded 5368 LPG futures warehouse receipts, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a cumulative decrease of 108 receipts over the past week, representing a decline of 1.97%, while there was a cumulative increase of 807 receipts over the past month, indicating a growth of 17.69% [2] Group 3 - Zhonghui Futures indicated that from a medium to long-term perspective, the supply of crude oil exceeds demand, leading to a downward adjustment in price levels, suggesting that LPG prices still have room for compression. The short-term technical outlook shows a rebound in costs, but the medium to long-term outlook remains under pressure, with a weak trend expected. The strategy recommended is to maintain short positions, focusing on the price range of 4050-4150 CNY [2] - Nanhua Futures analyzed that the domestic supply remains tight, with low port arrivals and inventory depletion. Demand has not changed significantly, with stable chemical demand and PDH operations recovering to 75% despite ongoing losses. Overall, there is still relative support in the near term, with attention to marginal changes [2]