Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market may see an increase in risk appetite due to Sino - US talks, and the trading volume has rebounded. The monetary policy is expected to be further loosened in the fourth quarter. [13][14] - The prices of various commodities show different trends. For example, some are expected to be in a narrow - range shock, some are expected to be weak, and some are expected to be strong in the short - term. The trends are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international situations. [17][19][24] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - At the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference, central bank governor Pan Gongsheng, Financial Regulatory Administration director Li Yunze, and CSRC chairman Wu Qing made important statements. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, resume Treasury bond trading in the open market, and strengthen macro - prudential management. [8] - In September, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 21.6% year - on - year, with faster growth in high - tech and equipment manufacturing, and significant acceleration in the profits of private and foreign - funded enterprises. [8] - The CSRC issued the "Work Plan for Optimizing the Qualified Foreign Investor System" and the "Several Opinions on Strengthening the Protection of Small and Medium - Sized Investors in the Capital Market", which are expected to enhance the attractiveness of foreign capital and improve the protection of investors. [9] Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt the strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation. The A - share market rose on Monday, and Sino - US talks may boost risk appetite. The trading volume has rebounded, and the monetary policy is expected to be loosened. [13] Treasury Bond Futures - The monetary policy is expected to be further loosened, and bonds still have upward momentum. Although the bond market was suppressed in the morning due to the increase in risk appetite, the central bank's decision to restart bond - buying led to a significant decline in bond yields. [15] Black Steel and Iron Ore - In the short - term, the market may rebound slightly, but the space is limited. In the medium - term, it will maintain a volatile trend. Pay attention to Sino - US relations and policies at the end of the year. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is fair. The supply of molten iron remains high, and the prices of raw materials are volatile. [17] Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to be volatile and strong in the short - term. Pay attention to production inspections at coal mines and changes in molten iron output. The supply may shrink in the short - term, and the demand is supported, but the weakening demand for steel in the off - season may limit the upward space. [19] Ferroalloys - The over - supply situation of ferroalloys is difficult to reverse in the medium - term. It is recommended to short on rallies. The prices of ferroalloys were affected by the strong performance of the black market and macro - sentiment, and the silicon iron price was more volatile due to the decline in thermal coal prices. [20][21] Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, short - term short positions can take profits. For glass, it is recommended to wait and see. The inventory of soda ash has decreased slightly, and the supply has declined. The new capacity of glass needs time to be released, and the mid - stream inventory is high. [22] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - For aluminum, it is recommended to wait and see. The market sentiment is boosted by factors such as interest rate cuts and Sino - US talks, but the domestic market may follow the upward trend weakly. For alumina, it is recommended to short on rallies as the supply surplus pressure is large. [24] Zinc - Hold short positions. The domestic zinc inventory has increased, and the spot trading is light. The import of refined zinc has decreased significantly. The domestic and international market logics are different, and the zinc price has shown a downward resonance since October. [25] Lithium Carbonate - It will be in a strong and volatile state in the short - term. The demand is strong, and the supply is close to the peak. The current supply - demand situation drives the price upward. [26] Industrial Silicon - It will fluctuate weakly in a range. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Although there is a pressure on supply in reality, the supply and demand are in a loose balance considering the reduction in production in the southwest during the dry season. [27][29] Polysilicon - It will continue to fluctuate narrowly in a range. The spot price supports the lower limit, and the upper limit depends on the implementation of capacity merger policies. There is no strong driving force for upward or downward movement. [30] Agricultural Products Cotton - Adopt the strategy of shorting on rallies with caution. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. Although Sino - US trade relations may bring some fluctuations, the actual demand change needs further observation. [32] Sugar - Short positions can be rolled or wait and see. The global sugar market is in surplus, and the long - term demand is worrying. The domestic supply pressure is gradually increasing, but the cost supports the price. [34] Eggs - Trade according to the volatile strategy. Currently, it is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short in the short - term. The egg - laying hen industry is in the process of capacity reduction, and the futures are strong, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the increase in spot prices may be limited. [37] Apples - The price will fluctuate strongly. The prices in the western producing areas are firm, and the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants has increased. Pay attention to the price changes, storage progress, and purchasing sentiment of merchants. [39] Corn - Be cautious and short on near - month contracts, and consider going long on far - month contracts. The spot price has rebounded, but the supply pressure in the northeast is still accumulating. The possible release of policy wheat may have a substitution impact on corn. [40] Red Dates - Wait and see. The market price is stable, but the opening price is expected to decline, leading to a significant decline in the futures price. [41] Pigs - Wait and see in the short - term. The supply - demand situation is deadlocked, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to the slaughter rhythm of large - scale enterprises at the end of the month. [41] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The supply - demand contradiction of crude oil is expected to become more prominent, and the oil price is likely to fall. Although the price has rebounded due to geopolitical conflicts and Sino - US macro - expectations, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand may be suppressed. [43] Fuel Oil - The price will follow the oil price. The supply - demand structure of fuel oil is loose, and the short - term focus is on the impact of sanctions on Russia's supply. [44] Plastics - It will fluctuate weakly. The supply pressure of polyolefins is large, and the upstream profit has slightly recovered after the recent rebound, with limited upward momentum. [45] Rubber - There is no obvious trend, and it is mainly in a shock state. Short - term double - selling strategies or short - term long - buying on pullbacks can be considered. [47] Methanol - Adopt a volatile strategy and wait for the opportunity to go long in small positions after the rebound driver appears. The market is in a game around factors such as the arrival of Iranian goods, and the supply pressure is large, but there are also some positive factors. [48] Caustic Soda - Adopt a volatile strategy. Although the spot price is weak, there is cost support, and the weak performance of alumina suppresses the futures price. [49] Asphalt - The price trend is strong. The oil price has no main - line logic, and the later focus is on the concern about raw materials caused by the US military threat to Venezuela. The current demand is in the peak season, and the inventory is decreasing at a normal rate. [50] Printing Paper - It is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply may be excessive due to the resumption of production by Chenming during the off - season. In the short - term, the fundamental situation has no obvious change, and some option strategies can be considered. [52] Polyester Industry Chain - Consider going long in small positions on dips in the short - term. The market sentiment has been boosted by the improvement of the macro - environment and news. The supply - demand situations of PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. have different changes. [53] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The short - term trend is strong, but the supply is abundant. The demand for the blending oil market may weaken, and the profit of PDH has recovered. The Sino - US trade negotiation may affect the price. [54] Pulp - Observe the inventory reduction at ports and spot trading. If the spot price is stable, long positions can be established in the far - month 01 contract in small positions. [55] Logs - Be cautious when shorting. After the rebound, short positions can be established in small positions. The import cost may decrease, the supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand is weakening. [56] Urea - Adopt a weakly volatile strategy. Pay attention to the impact of the cost side on the futures. The supply - demand situation has deteriorated compared with the previous period. [56] Synthetic Rubber - The short - term trend is weak. Be cautious when shorting on sharp drops, and consider selling call options on rebounds. [57]

Core Viewpoint - The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) has reported changes in chemical product warehouse receipts as of October 23, indicating fluctuations in various futures contracts [1] Group 1: Warehouse Receipts Changes - Polyethylene futures warehouse receipts stand at 12,958 lots, a decrease of 6 lots compared to the previous period [1] - Polyvinyl chloride futures warehouse receipts are at 121,448 lots, down by 333 lots from the last report [1] - Polypropylene futures warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 14,586 lots [1] - Styrene futures warehouse receipts total 858 lots, reflecting a decrease of 249 lots [1] - Ethylene glycol futures warehouse receipts are stable at 7,945 lots [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas futures warehouse receipts have increased to 2,416 lots, up by 116 lots [1]

Core Insights - The Dalian Commodity Exchange released data on chemical product warehouse receipts on October 23, indicating various changes in futures warehouse receipts for different chemicals [1] Group 1: Warehouse Receipt Data - Polyethylene futures warehouse receipts totaled 12,958 lots, a decrease of 6 lots compared to the previous period [1] - Polyvinyl chloride futures warehouse receipts amounted to 121,448 lots, down by 333 lots from the previous period [1] - Polypropylene futures warehouse receipts remained stable at 14,586 lots, showing no change [1] - Styrene futures warehouse receipts were recorded at 858 lots, reflecting a decrease of 249 lots [1] - Ethylene glycol futures warehouse receipts stood at 7,945 lots, with no change [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas futures warehouse receipts increased to 2,416 lots, up by 116 lots [1]

沙特10月CP公布，丙烷为495美元/吨，较上月跌25美元/吨，丁烷为475美元/吨，较上月跌15美元/吨。 市场心态偏悲观，不过考虑运费及贴水后，华东丙烷进口成本为4300元/吨，华东丁烷进口成本为4230 元/吨，这将有助于改善PDH装置需求。10月底中美关税政策到期，预期10月下旬的中美谈判，大概率 延续当前的关税政策。2025年4月，美国贸易代表办公室(USTR)宣布了一项针对中国运营船舶的收费措 施，暂定于2025年10月14日实施，部分观点认为该项举措是否落地存在较大的不确定性，但若落地实 施，将影响约12%的VLGC船舶，美国至远东的海运费将走强，从而抑制我国的进口需求。国庆假期炼 厂库存累积，节后有排库需求，此外国庆期间原油价格震荡下跌，进口成本支撑减弱。假期过后，预期 盘面震荡偏弱，待炼厂排库结束后，PG2511有望企稳。 瑞达期货：预计短期LPG震荡偏多运行 10月9日盘中，液化石油气期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至4048.00元。截止发稿，液化石 油气主力合约报4066.00元，跌幅5.33%。 机构 核心观点 新湖期货 LPG2511有望企稳 瑞达期货（002961） 预计短 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear short - term upward trend with investment opportunities [1] - Fuel Oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively clear short - term upward trend with investment opportunities [1] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively clear short - term trend with investment opportunities [1] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear short - term trend with investment opportunities [1] Core Viewpoints - The international oil price rebounded overnight. Geopolitical risks may increase in the period around National Day, with short - term upward risks remaining, but the medium - term surplus pressure means the bearish trend continues. Crude - related futures hedging short positions should be combined with call options [1] - Multiple factors such as the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the advancement of the Iranian nuclear issue have driven up oil prices and fuel oil prices. The continuous attacks on Russian refineries have affected fuel supply, and the market's expectation of a reduction in Russian fuel exports may strengthen. Low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure from weak demand and other factors [2] - In the asphalt market, there is a pre - holiday rush for work in the north, and typhoon weather affects demand in the south. The supply pressure is weaker than expected, and the supply - demand balance continues [2] - For liquefied petroleum gas, refinery self - use has squeezed external supply, and import arrivals are affected by weather. With the coming of the gas consumption peak season, the overall consumption is expected to increase, and the market has bottomed out and rebounded [2] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices continued to rebound, with the SC11 contract rising 0.49%. Geopolitical risks may increase around National Day, mainly in the Russia - Ukraine and Iranian nuclear issues. Without direct military conflicts, the restoration of Iranian nuclear sanctions and restricted Venezuelan exports have limited long - term impact on actual exports, but short - term fluctuations and changes in export directions may occur. If the situation in Eastern Europe further deteriorates, Russian oil and refined product exports may decrease. Trump urged Turkey to stop buying Russian oil, and Russia extended its gasoline and diesel export bans until the end of the year. Short - term upward risks remain, but the medium - term surplus pressure means the bearish trend has not ended [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Multiple international factors have driven up oil prices and fuel oil prices. The continuous attacks on Russian refineries have led to a decline in the operating rate, and Russia extended its diesel and gasoline export bans until the end of the year, intensifying the impact on refined product supply. If export restrictions expand to non - gasoline products, the market's expectation of a reduction in Russian fuel exports will strengthen, directly supporting high - sulfur fuel oil. Low - sulfur fuel oil is still under pressure from weak demand, increased overseas production, and sufficient domestic quotas [2] Asphalt - There is a pre - holiday rush for work in northern regions, and typhoon weather affects demand in southern regions. Refinery and social inventories have slightly increased. The national production plan for October is 350,000 tons more than the same period last year and 4,000 tons less than the previous month, with supply pressure weaker than expected, and the supply - demand balance continues [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Refinery self - use has squeezed external supply, resulting in a decline in commercial volume compared to last week. Typhoon weather in South China affects import arrivals, and the import volume in East China has increased but remains at a low level. Chemical demand is stable, and with the coming of the gas consumption peak season, overall consumption is expected to increase. The market has bottomed out and rebounded [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for crude oil-related products experienced a decline across the board on September 22, with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) leading the drop at over 2% [1]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of September 22, the main crude oil futures fell by 1.65%, settling at 483.10 yuan per barrel [1]. - Fuel oil futures decreased by 1.24%, priced at 2783.00 yuan per ton [1]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil futures saw a decline of 0.65%, with a price of 3383.00 yuan per ton [1]. - Liquefied petroleum gas futures dropped by 2.59%, now at 4255.00 yuan per ton [1]. - The opening prices for various contracts on September 22 included SC crude oil at 485.20 yuan, fuel oil at 2793.00 yuan, and LPG at 4359.00 yuan [2]. Group 2: Warehouse Data - As of September 19, the warehouse data indicated that the futures warehouse receipts for medium-sulfur crude oil remained unchanged at 5,401,000 barrels [3]. - Fuel oil futures warehouse receipts were stable at 127,140 tons [3]. - The warehouse receipts for asphalt futures decreased by 1,330 tons, totaling 40,440 tons [3]. - LPG futures warehouse receipts remained steady at 12,974 contracts [3]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts were unchanged at 10,020 tons [3]. Group 3: Basis Data - The basis data as of September 19 showed a phenomenon of "backwardation" for fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, and low-sulfur fuel oil, where spot prices exceeded futures prices [3]. - The basis for fuel oil was calculated at 2,632 yuan, with a basis rate of 48.29% [3]. - The basis for asphalt was 205 yuan, with a basis rate of 5.65% [3]. - The basis for LPG was 234 yuan, with a basis rate of 5.08% [3]. - The basis for low-sulfur fuel oil was 144 yuan, with a basis rate of 4.07% [3].

Market Review - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) futures showed weak fluctuations, with the 2511 contract closing at 4425 yuan/ton, and the price difference between October and November around 50 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - As of September 17, the Dalian Commodity Exchange had 13,002 LPG futures warehouse receipts, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - Analysts from Rabobank, including Florence Schmit, expect European natural gas prices to stabilize at over 20 euros per megawatt-hour starting in the second quarter of next year due to new liquefied natural gas (LNG) production capacity coming online [2] - Nippon Yusen KK, Japan's largest shipping company, plans to expand its LNG fleet by approximately 50% by early 2029 to meet the growing global demand for this ultra-low temperature fuel [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhonghui Futures indicates that there is insufficient upward momentum on the cost side, with downstream PDH profits declining, maintaining a bearish outlook on LPG. The decrease in crude oil demand and increased supply lead to rising oversupply pressure, suggesting further downside potential. The main contract's basis remains relatively high, while PDH profits are expected to weaken, although demand remains acceptable with current operating rates exceeding 70% [3] - Hualian Futures notes that international oil prices briefly rebounded above a series of moving averages. Domestic LPG supply decreased week-on-week but remains at a multi-year high. Inventory levels have risen, with port storage rates at mid-range for recent years. Refinery storage rates have increased but are still near multi-year lows. The demand side is experiencing a seasonal lull, with gasoline consumption at a four-year low, declining growth in restaurant consumption, and overall chemical demand weakening. PDH weekly capacity utilization has dropped to multi-year lows, while alkylation and MTBE capacity utilizations have also decreased, with margins remaining low. The "gas/oil" price ratio is neutral to high. The strategy suggests holding a small long position with stop-loss references around 4300-4400 [3]

Report Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Asphalt: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The energy market is influenced by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels. Different energy products show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4][5] Summary by Product Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, with the SC10 contract dropping 3.3% intraday. From August 27, the US imposed a 25% tariff on India for buying Russian oil, and Indian refineries will reduce Russian oil purchases after October. Brent crude near $70/barrel has priced in the positive impact of Russian oil supply risks, and oil may turn to a sideways trend before geopolitical risks further intensify [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - After a significant oil price correction, fuel - related futures declined under pressure. As of the end of July, Singapore's marine fuel sales and China's bonded marine fuel bunker demand decreased year - on - year, but domestic refinery production enthusiasm was also low, with supply down 19% year - on - year. Fuel oil inventories in Singapore and Fujairah decreased, and the inventory pressure eased. High - sulfur resources are supported by geopolitical premiums, and the FU crack spread is still supported [3] Asphalt - After experiencing an unexpected increase in September production and a significant oil price decline, asphalt showed strong resistance in the oil products market, and the crack spread strengthened. In August, the shipment volume of sample refineries increased by 8% year - on - year, and leading indicators related to demand were positive, indicating potential demand. Factory and social inventories decreased, and low inventories supported prices. The BU2510 contract was supported at 3470 yuan/ton, and the crack spread rebounded significantly today [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The international LPG market rebounded due to import demand, and domestic arrivals continued to increase. With low - cost imported goods in the early stage, sales pressure was limited. The naphtha - propane spread remained at an advantageous level, and high chemical demand could be maintained in the short term. The spot market's negative pressure has been released, and the market is in a repair phase. In the long term, overseas production increase pressure exists, causing the far - month contracts to be under pressure, resulting in a near - strong and far - weak market structure [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Financial Futures and Options**: The global risk sentiment is boosted by the Fed's dovish stance, and the A - share market shows positive signs in terms of funds and policies. The bond market is affected by factors such as capital liquidity, the stock - bond relationship, and economic fundamentals [1][3]. - **Commodity Futures and Options**: Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, nickel is expected to trade in a range, while industrial silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum are expected to show a relatively strong performance [4][6][12]. - **Black and Building Materials**: The prices of steel products are under pressure due to changes in raw material supply - demand and limited policy - driven production cuts [15][17]. - **Agricultural and Livestock Products**: The sugar market shows different trends at home and abroad, and the protein meal market is affected by factors such as crop yields and trade policies [18][20]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The LPG market is affected by supply, demand, and cost factors, and the PVC market is influenced by cost, supply, demand, and inventory factors [24][27]. 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM)**: - **Intraday View**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [1] - **Medium - term View**: Bullish - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in IF2509 and buy IO - 4300 - P put options for protection - **Core Logic**: Dovish Fed stance, high market trading volume, and positive policies [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL)**: - **Intraday View**: Fluctuate widely and wait for a rebound - **Medium - term View**: Accumulate strength for a rebound - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in TL2512 - **Core Logic**: Ample capital liquidity, the stock - bond relationship, and slow economic recovery [2][3] Commodity Futures and Options - **Nickel**: - **Intraday View**: Trade in the range of 118,000 - 124,000 - **Medium - term View**: Trade in the range of 115,000 - 132,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Sell N2509I - C - 124000 and NI2509 - P - 116000 - **Core Logic**: Complex supply - demand factors, including production in Indonesia, stainless - steel production, and battery demand [4][5] - **Industrial Silicon**: - **Intraday View**: Run strongly in the range of 8,700 - 9,000 - **Medium - term View**: Run strongly in the range of 8,500 - 9,500 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a bullish approach - **Core Logic**: Decreased production, decreased demand, high inventory, and industry initiatives [6][7] - **Polysilicon**: - **Intraday View**: Run strongly in the range of 50,000 - 53,000 - **Medium - term View**: Run strongly in the range of 45,000 - 65,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a bullish approach - **Core Logic**: Decreased production, decreased demand, high inventory, and "anti - involution" expectations [8][9][11] - **Aluminum**: - **Intraday View**: Trade at a high level in the range of 20,600 - 20,900 - **Medium - term View**: Run strongly in the range of 19,500 - 21,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Sell AL2509 - P - 19300 put options - **Core Logic**: Limited production capacity increase, low inventory, and strong demand in the automotive market [12] - **Lithium Carbonate**: - **Intraday View**: Fluctuate widely in the range of 75,000 - 85,000 - **Medium - term View**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias in the range of 70,000 - 100,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a bullish approach - **Core Logic**: High supply, high inventory, and price fluctuations affected by industry information [13] Black and Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: - **Intraday View**: Decline in the short term but with limited downside space - **Medium - term View**: Lack of upward momentum - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold short positions in out - of - the - money put options on rebar, such as RB2510 - P - 2900 - **Core Logic**: Changes in raw material supply - demand and limited policy - driven production cuts [15][17] Agricultural and Livestock Products - **Sugar**: - **Intraday View**: Weak performance - **Medium - term View**: Strong support at the bottom - **Reference Strategy**: The price has strong support at the bottom - **Core Logic**: Different trends at home and abroad, with potential supply increases in major producing countries [18] - **Protein Meal**: - **Intraday View**: The price of soybean meal 2601 will continue to oscillate in the range of [3075, 3175] - **Medium - term View**: The price of soybean meal 2601 will fluctuate sharply in August and September - **Reference Strategy**: Exit the short - soybean meal 2601 and long - rapeseed meal 2601 strategy; continue to hold the short - soybean oil 2601 and long - palm oil 2601 strategy - **Core Logic**: Crop yields in North America and trade policies between the US and China [20][22] Energy and Chemicals - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: - **Intraday View**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias - **Medium - term View**: Face pressure - **Reference Strategy**: Hold short positions in out - of - the - money call options on PG2510 - **Core Logic**: Decreased supply, low demand, and rising costs in the short term, but an overall loose supply - demand pattern in the long term [24][25] - **PVC**: - **Intraday View**: Stabilize and rebound - **Medium - term View**: Supported at the bottom - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold short positions in out - of - the - money put options on PVC - **Core Logic**: Rising raw material costs, decreased supply, weak demand, high inventory, and potential export changes [27][28][29]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, but with limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Fuel Oil: ★☆★ (the specific meaning is not clearly defined in the context) [1] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, but with limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, but with limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: ☆☆☆ (suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor trading opportunities, advisable to wait and see) [1] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical factors such as sanctions on Iran's oil exports and the stagnation of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have led to price fluctuations in the energy market. Short - term geopolitical risks remain uncertain, and investors are advised to use appropriate strategies to manage risks [1]. - The fundamentals of different energy products vary. Some show signs of supply - demand balance improvement, while others face challenges such as cost pressure and high inventory [1][2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices continued to rise, with the SC10 contract up 0.55% during the day. Sanctions on Iran's oil exports and the stagnation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks have led to a re - evaluation of the market's previous pricing of geopolitical easing. It is recommended to hold a long - straddle strategy for out - of - the - money options to hedge risks and then enter medium - term short positions after the volatility increases [1]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - On Friday, affected by the news of increased US sanctions on Iran's oil exports, oil product futures strengthened. FU rose more than 3% in the early trading session, and LU rose nearly 1%. As of the end of July, Singapore's marine fuel sales decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and China's bonded marine fuel bunkering demand decreased by 1% year - on - year. However, domestic refineries' enthusiasm for producing marine fuel was also low, with supply down 19% year - on - year as of July. Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory decreased by 6.5% month - on - month, and Fujairah's fuel oil inventory decreased by 17.5% month - on - month. The fundamentals are generally more bullish, and the price spread between different varieties has changed [2]. Asphalt - Sanctions on Iran's oil have led to a stronger geopolitical premium for crude oil, and asphalt prices have followed suit, with the main contract approaching the short - term upper boundary. Since mid - August, the diversion effect of US imports of Venezuelan oil on North Asian resources has increased. Sinopec's asphalt production has shown a widening year - on - year decline due to increased deep - processing loads. In August, the shipment volume of sample refineries increased by 8% year - on - year, breaking the growth bottleneck from June to July. Leading indicators such as the issuance of special bonds for new toll roads and the cumulative domestic sales of road rollers have improved significantly year - on - year, indicating potential demand for asphalt. The basis has declined due to the strengthening of the futures market and the stability of spot prices. The asphalt market's fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and its price trend mainly follows that of crude oil [2]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The overseas market has recently stabilized. Although exports are increasing, the procurement demand in East Asia supported by strong chemical profits provides support. In China, the volume of imported liquefied petroleum gas arriving at ports and the volume released by refineries have increased, putting pressure on domestic - produced gas. After the decline of naphtha prices, the cost advantage of propane has been continuously weakened. With the expected decline in chemical profit margins in the future, the sustainability of the current high operating rate should be monitored. With a high level of warehouse receipts, the upward pressure is relatively strong, and the high - basis pattern can continue, maintaining a volatile trend [3].