Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - In January, international pulp prices increased, with Arauco softwood pulp rising by $10 to $710 per ton and hardwood pulp by $20 to $590 per ton, providing cost support and potential stabilization in paper prices [3][5] - The report highlights the upcoming announcement from the U.S. regarding the tariff decision related to Trump's global tariff measures, which could impact the export chain [3][5] - E-commerce performance in December for personal care products showed overall weakness, with some emerging brands maintaining rapid growth [3] Summary by Sections Export Chain - The U.S. is expected to announce the tariff decision next week, with a predicted 28% chance of supporting current tariffs. If rejected, tariffs imposed in 2025 may be lifted [5] - The postponement of tariffs on upholstered furniture and cabinets until 2027 may alleviate CPI increases in the U.S. and support demand recovery [5] - Companies like Dream Lily and Fashion Bed Group are expanding into the Canadian market, while Zhongxin Co. plans to establish a factory in the U.S. to enhance global competitiveness [5] Home Furnishing - The furniture manufacturing industry's revenue from January to November 2025 decreased by 9.1% year-on-year, with a widening decline in residential sales [5] - IKEA announced the closure of several stores in China while shifting focus to smaller stores and online channels [5] - The report suggests that despite the ongoing adjustment period in the home furnishing and real estate sectors, valuations are at historical lows, presenting potential investment opportunities [5] Paper and Packaging - As of January 9, 2026, prices for various paper types showed mixed trends, with some prices remaining stable while others decreased [5] - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong production capacity and fiber supply, such as Nine Dragons Paper and Shanying International [5] Consumer Goods - Sales growth for sanitary napkins on major e-commerce platforms showed a decline, while some brands on Douyin experienced rapid growth [5] - The report highlights strategic collaborations and product launches by companies like Morning Glory and the potential for recovery in the stationery sector [5] New Tobacco Products - New regulations regarding non-combustible nicotine products will take effect in April 2026, indicating a shift towards a more concentrated market structure [5] - Companies like Smoore International are expected to benefit from the global rollout of their products [5] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector underperformed the market, with a reported increase in net profit for companies like Bailong Oriental, driven by strong order volumes [5]

CONTENTS 目录 金银价格驱动存在分化， 进入重点观察时点 贵金属周报 2026/01/10 0755-23375141 zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 钟俊轩（宏观金融组） 01 周度评估及行情展望 04 宏观经济数据 02 市场回顾 05 贵金属价差 03 利率与流动性 06 贵金属库存 01 周度评估及行情展望 周度总结 ◆ 本周行情回顾：本周贵金属价格出现偏强势的反弹，沪金涨2.96%，报1006.48 元/克，沪银涨9.70%，报18731.00 元/千克；COMEX金涨 4.07%，报4518.40 美元/盎司，COMEX银涨10.41%，报79.79 美元/盎司； 10年期美债收益率报4.18 %；美元指数涨0.69%，报99.14 ； ◆ 特朗普政府的多维度政策进一步冲击美元信用，驱动黄金价格表现强势：特朗普政府对于委内瑞拉总统马杜罗的直接抓捕极大程度上对美元 信用形成冲击，特朗普本人同时称将对伊朗和格陵兰岛进行进一步措施，并表明"不需要国际法"。黄金是美元信用的对标物，美国继2025 年进行大幅度财政扩张措施后，在 ...

智通财经APP注意到，美国最高法院即将就前总统特朗普运用紧急关税权力作出裁决，该决定可能震动 金融市场，若大法官们推翻相关关税则影响尤甚。 此案最早可能于周五宣判，将决定特朗普能否在未经国会批准的情况下，依据《国际紧急经济权力法》 征收关税。在11月的口头辩论中，大法官们对特朗普征收关税的权力表示了质疑。目前，线上预测市场 认为法院维持关税的概率为30%。 分析师和投资者表示，若关税被推翻，可能影响政府收入，推高美债收益率，并在股市引发新一轮波 动。 KEY Advisors财富管理公司首席执行官埃迪·加布尔表示，"我们从未见过一项裁决能产生如此巨大的经 济影响，""如果最高法院作出不利于总统的裁决，并迫使政府退还所有关税，那对市场将是重大利空。 这相当于从系统中抽走流动性。" 去年四月特朗普宣布加征关税时，股市下跌近5%，美债收益率最初也大幅下挫，因投资者为规避不确 定性而涌入避险资产。此后股市反弹，2025年累计上涨超16%，并在此过程中屡创新高。 股市或迎短期提振，但风险犹存 一些投资者认为，如果法院撤销现有关税，股市可能反弹，对那些不得不承担高额进口成本的公司尤其 如此。 一些投资顾问已开始将资金投向 ...

Group 1 - The core investment themes identified by Goldman Sachs for 2026 include a shift in AI infrastructure investment towards data centers and power suppliers [1] - Pharmaceutical research is transitioning from weight loss drugs to cardiovascular treatments, indicating a change in focus within the healthcare sector [1] - China's economic growth is expected to exceed market expectations, driven primarily by technological advancements and exports [1] Group 2 - Political uncertainties, such as Federal Reserve policies and tariff decisions, are anticipated to dominate the market in the first half of the year [1]

Lawyers see a small chance that the ruling could come out this week. ...

Group 1: Trade and Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs indicates that even if the U.S. Supreme Court rules Trump's tariffs illegal, the overall impact on trade will be limited, with a predicted decrease in the probability of maintaining tariffs by about 10 percentage points [1] - The Supreme Court's decision is expected between December 2025 and January 2026, and if tariffs are deemed illegal, the government may need months to refund approximately $115 to $145 billion in tariffs [1] - Jefferies maintains a low allocation stance on U.S. Treasuries, noting that the Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs could lead to significant market volatility [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - TD Securities forecasts a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England in November, with a close vote expected at 5-4 [4] - Danske Bank also anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England, highlighting the importance of the votes from the Governor and Deputy Governor [7] - The Bank of England's decision-making is influenced by ongoing inflation and labor market conditions, with a cautious approach to further easing [7] Group 3: Commodity and Sector Analysis - CITIC Securities predicts that gold prices will continue to rise, driven by geopolitical tensions and weak U.S. economic performance [8] - CITIC Securities also notes that the white liquor industry is at a bottom, with a recovery expected in 2026, while the beer sector is anticipated to see stable revenue and profit [9] - CITIC Securities reports that the aluminum sector is experiencing high profit expansion, with demand for electrolytic aluminum exceeding expectations [10] Group 4: Market Trends and Investment Strategies - CITIC Securities highlights that the current market rally is characterized by an increase in total deposits and a need for improvement in total wealth [11] - The firm expects that 2026 will be a critical year for real estate companies to repair their balance sheets, with some firms potentially reaching profitability [12] - The outlook for AI capital expenditures remains optimistic, with significant growth expected in 2025 and 2026, despite uncertainties in 2027 [13]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that the U.S. Supreme Court's decision regarding tariff rulings remains closely contested, with a ruling expected in December 2025 or January 2026. The firm believes that even an unfavorable ruling may not fundamentally alter the tariff landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Court Proceedings and Predictions - Goldman Sachs' chief economist Jan Hatzius' team reported that during the oral arguments on November 5, 2025, most justices expressed skepticism about the president's authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), leading to a market probability adjustment for maintaining tariffs from 40% to around 30% [2][3]. - The firm predicts that even if the court rejects IEEPA tariffs, the Trump administration could still implement similar tariffs through other legal avenues, resulting in an actual tariff rate decrease of only about 1 percentage point [2][5]. Group 2: Current Tariff Impact and Future Scenarios - As of September, the government had collected approximately $89 billion in IEEPA tariffs, which is expected to rise to between $115 billion and $145 billion by the time of the court's ruling. The refund process for these tariffs could take several months, indicating that the economic impact of these tariffs will persist [5][6]. - Goldman Sachs notes that a court ruling does not equate to the end of tariffs, as the government has various alternative legal tools at its disposal to impose tariffs, including provisions from the Trade Act of 1974 and the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 [7][8]. Group 3: Judicial Dynamics and Key Justices - The internal dynamics of the court reveal a split, with four justices likely opposing the government and three supporting it, while two justices remain undecided. This indicates a highly competitive ruling process [2][6]. - Key swing votes are held by Justices Barrett and Chief Justice Roberts, with Barrett questioning the intent of Congress in granting broad tariff powers through IEEPA, and Roberts emphasizing that taxation is a core power of Congress, while acknowledging the importance of tariffs as a tool of foreign policy [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that the U.S. Supreme Court's decision on tariff rulings remains closely contested, with a ruling expected in December 2025 or January 2026. The firm believes that even an unfavorable ruling may not fundamentally alter the tariff landscape [1]. Group 1: Court Proceedings and Predictions - The Supreme Court's oral arguments on November 5, 2025, revealed skepticism among most justices regarding the president's authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), leading Goldman Sachs to lower the market's probability of maintaining tariffs from 40% to around 30% [1][2]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that if the court rejects the IEEPA tariffs, the Trump administration could still implement similar tariffs through other legal avenues, resulting in an actual tariff rate decrease of only about 1 percentage point [1]. Group 2: Financial Implications and Refund Processes - As of September, the government had collected approximately $89 billion in IEEPA tariffs, which is expected to rise to between $115 billion and $145 billion by the time of the court's ruling. The refund process for any potential tariff reversals could take several months [3]. - Even if the court rules against the IEEPA tariffs, the government has various alternative legal tools to impose tariffs, including provisions from the Trade Act of 1974 and the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which could allow for the reimplementation of similar tariffs, particularly against major trading partners [3]. Group 3: Judicial Dynamics - The oral arguments highlighted a division among justices, with three liberal justices explicitly questioning the government's position, while some conservative justices also leaned towards opposing the government based on congressional delegation of power [4]. - Key swing votes appear to be Justices Barrett and Chief Justice Roberts, with Barrett questioning whether Congress intended to grant broad tariff powers through the IEEPA, and Roberts emphasizing that taxation is a core power of Congress, although recognizing tariffs as tools of foreign policy [4].

Group 1 - The global largest gold ETF held 1,038.63 tons as of November 4, with a reduction of 3.15 tons from the previous day and a net increase of 26.32 tons from the previous month [1] - The U.S. Supreme Court is debating a tariff case, with conservative Chief Justice questioning its reasonableness, leading to a decreased probability of a Trump victory [2] - The U.S. government shutdown lasted 36 days, impacting the stock market, airline industry, and food assistance programs, but Trump still anticipates new highs in the stock market [2] Group 2 - Economic data shows that U.S. ADP employment increased by 42,000 in October, exceeding expectations, but labor demand is slowing and wage growth is stagnant [2] - The service sector activity in October expanded at the fastest pace in eight months, surpassing economists' predictions [2] - The U.S. Treasury maintained its quarterly refinancing scale but hinted at potential increases in the future, leading to a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield [2] Group 3 - Gold prices are currently operating below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with a bearish crossover in the KD indicator [4] - The strategy for gold trading today suggests buying on dips between 3,965.9 and 3,971.9, with a stop loss at 3,960.9 and a target range of 3,975.9 to 3,981.9 [4] - Silver prices are also below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with a similar bearish crossover in the KD indicator, recommending selling on highs between 48.21 and 48.71 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The newly appointed Federal Reserve Governor, Milan, believes that continuing interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is a "reasonable action," including a potential cut in the upcoming December meeting [1]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Milan supports further interest rate cuts, aiming to adjust the policy rate to a "neutral level" that neither stimulates nor suppresses economic growth [1]. - The Federal Reserve recently voted to cut rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4%, although Milan opposed this decision, advocating for a 50 basis point cut instead [1][2]. - There is a divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding the need for further rate cuts, with some expressing concerns about inflation and hesitance towards a December cut [1]. Group 2: Labor Market Insights - Milan remains optimistic about the labor market, citing a rebound in private sector employment with an addition of 42,000 jobs in October, following a loss of 29,000 jobs in September [2]. - Despite the positive employment data, Milan notes that overall trends indicate moderate job growth, slowing wage growth, and potentially weaker labor demand, suggesting that interest rates could be lower than current levels [2]. Group 3: Tariff and Economic Impact - Milan warns that a potential Supreme Court ruling against tariffs imposed by the Trump administration could increase economic uncertainty and burden the economy, as these tariffs have generated nearly $200 billion in revenue as of September 30 [2][3]. - He emphasizes that tariff revenues effectively increase national savings, which typically leads to lower interest rates; thus, the removal of these revenues could impact monetary policy significantly [3].