| [Table_Authors] | 王一凡(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-38031722 | | | wangyifan4@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524120001 | | | 唐元懋(分析师) | | | 0755-23976753 | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 回望 25 年，高弹性强动量占优 2026.01.02 利率互换 IRS 能预测资金松紧甚至降息吗？ 2025.12.31 关注信用债 3Y-1Y 的骑乘机会 2025.12.29 银行二永债周度数据库更新（2025.12.19-12.26） 2025.12.29 冲击趋缓，深跌反弹 2025.12.28 证 券 研 究 报 告 债 券 研 究 曲径分岔：政策分化中把握中久期良机 本报告导读： 日本央行加息 25bp，全球货币政策分化加剧。美债曲线平坦化，短端回落明显。建 议配置 5-7 年中久期资产。 投资要点： 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01. ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) issued 45 billion offshore RMB central bank bills, marking a record single issuance for the year, interpreted as a measure to stabilize the RMB exchange rate and counteract short-selling activities in the offshore market [2][3][4]. Group 1: Central Bank Bills and Market Impact - The issuance of 45 billion RMB central bank bills removed nearly 5% of RMB liquidity from the offshore market, significantly increasing short-term funding costs, with the 3-month HIBOR rising by 106 basis points to 4.56% [3]. - The operation sent a clear policy signal that the central bank will not allow a unilateral depreciation of the RMB, with historical data indicating potential appreciation of 0.8% to 1.2% within a month following similar past issuances [4]. - Following the issuance, the short positions in offshore RMB decreased by 37%, reaching the lowest level since 2022, indicating a strong deterrent effect on short-selling activities [5]. Group 2: Policy Implications and Strategic Goals - The PBOC aims to enhance the international appeal of RMB assets by regularly issuing central bank bills, with RMB bond issuance in Hong Kong increasing by 48% year-on-year [6]. - The central bank's approach balances short-term stability with long-term flexibility, as evidenced by a reduction in the volatility of the CFETS RMB exchange rate index [7]. - The dual-track system for bill issuance, requiring institutions to submit trading strategies, aims to prevent malicious short-selling, while enhanced monitoring of abnormal fund flows has led to a significant increase in the detection of illegal forex trading cases [8]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Effects - Export companies are experiencing reduced foreign exchange risk, with a 1% appreciation of the RMB potentially increasing annual profits by approximately 12 million RMB [9]. - The offshore RMB funding pool has expanded to over 1.8 trillion RMB, with new financial products attracting significant investment [10]. - Foreign capital inflows into A-shares have accelerated, with net purchases exceeding 90 billion RMB in November alone, driven by a stabilized RMB exchange rate [11]. Group 4: Global Perspective and Future Outlook - The PBOC has developed a unique policy toolkit to manage exchange rates, contrasting with traditional methods used by other central banks [12]. - China is navigating the "impossible trinity" of capital mobility, exchange rate stability, and monetary policy independence through offshore central bank bills [12]. - Predictions suggest that the RMB exchange rate will stabilize within a range of 7.15 to 7.25 against the USD by the end of 2025, with potential challenges to the 7.0 mark if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates [13]. - The completion of deposit rate marketization reforms by 2026 is expected to enhance the pricing power of RMB assets [13]. - The expansion of digital RMB cross-border payment trials may create a new paradigm for exchange rate stability tools [14].

Group 1 - The recent strengthening of the RMB against the USD is driven by multiple internal and external factors, including a weaker USD index and strong domestic equity market performance attracting foreign capital inflow [1][2] - The RMB's appreciation is also influenced by the acceleration of the RMB/USD central parity rate and the issuance of offshore RMB central bank bills, which may tighten offshore RMB liquidity [2][3] - China's economic recovery and improving fundamentals provide long-term support for the stability of the RMB exchange rate, with policies promoting consumption and innovation contributing to market confidence [3][4] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of monitoring cross-border capital flows and maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level [4] - Analysts predict that the RMB exchange rate will likely continue to exhibit a trend of "stability with an upward bias" and "two-way fluctuations" in the future [4] - Companies are advised to adapt to the normalcy of exchange rate fluctuations and manage foreign exchange risk exposure within reasonable limits to avoid impacting normal operations [4]