Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Limited Partners (LPs) are actively planning to increase investments in private credit and secondary markets, reflecting a shift towards more defensive investment strategies [1][2] - Nearly half (45%) of LPs plan to increase allocations to private credit assets within the next 12 months, up from 37% six months ago [1] - Over one-third (37%) of investors intend to increase allocations to private secondary market strategies, a rise from 29% in December 2024 [1] Group 2 - In the Asia-Pacific region, LPs show the most positive attitude towards alternative assets, with 67% planning to increase investments in this area [1] - The demand for private secondary market strategies has significantly increased, with 64% of Asia-Pacific LPs planning to allocate more to this asset class, up from 42% six months ago [1] - Private credit remains attractive, with half (50%) of Asia-Pacific investors indicating plans to increase investments [1] Group 3 - The report shows that the total transaction volume in the private secondary market reached $160 billion in 2024, continuing to exhibit strong growth [3] - Two-thirds (65%) of LPs believe that the number of General Partner (GP) led transactions in the private credit market will increase in the next two to three years [3] - North American investors have the strongest expectations for this growth at 74%, followed by Europe at 59% and Asia-Pacific at 54% [3] Group 4 - Over half (54%) of global LPs and 58% of Asia-Pacific LPs indicate they are likely to engage in private secondary market transactions for private equity assets in the next two years [3] - More than one-third (36%) of LPs report an increase in the number of spin-off firms in their private market portfolios over the past two to three years [3] - A significant portion (64%) of Asia-Pacific LPs expect the formation of new fund managers to outpace industry consolidation in the coming years [3] Group 5 - The increase in the number of spin-off firms is likely driven by star members from mature investment teams starting their own firms [4] - Over one-quarter (28%) of LPs believe that existing GPs are insufficient in talent development and retention [4] - With the rise of mega funds, 71% of investors see this trend as a challenge to achieving expected investment returns [4]

从本质上来说，任何投资决策都是预测未来。无论你决定购买股票，卖出债券，或者坐拥现金，其实都是基于你对未来做出的判断之上的决策。因此有很多 人认为，如果想要获得好的投资回报，投资者一定要有超凡的预测未来的能力。那么问题来了：事实确实是这样么？ 在分析这个问题之前，我们先来看张图。 图表 1 ：市场对美联储基准利率的预测总是错 数据来源：彭博社，Apollo Chief Economist 上图展示了自2008年以来美联储基准利率的历史（绿色实线）。站在现在回头看，我们可以看到一条非常清晰的历史路径：美联储在2008年金融危机后，立 刻大幅度降息至零，并将零利率水平一直保持到2016年。在2016到2020年间，美联储慢慢逐步升息。然后到了2020年，COVID疫情发生后，美联储再次将利 率降到零。从2022年开始，为了应对通胀压力，美联储又快速将基准利率提到5%左右。 很多人可能没有意识到的是，市场对于美联储未来利率的预测（上图中虚线）， 从来没有正确过 。举例来说，在2008到2016年间，美联储利率始终保持在 零，然而同期市场的共识是：美联储很快就会升息。很少有人会预料到，零利率会整整持续8年。 接下来，让 ...