Core Insights - The launch of "Valorant: Source Energy Action" on August 19 is significant for the FPS gaming market in China, as it will test the hypothesis that the FPS genre can continue to grow without cannibalizing existing titles [1][4] - Tencent's Q2 earnings call highlighted the success of multiple FPS games in China, suggesting a healthy competitive environment rather than severe market cannibalization [1][6] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Tencent's FPS games, including "Call of Duty," "Apex Legends," and "Fortnite," have shown strong performance without significantly impacting each other, indicating a large differentiation space within the genre [1][6] - The FPS segment in China is experiencing growth, with shooting games projected to account for 6% of the top 100 mobile games by number and 17.03% by revenue by mid-2025 [7] Group 2: Product Strategy - "Valorant" mobile aims to enhance gameplay by simplifying operations while retaining strategic elements, thus catering to mobile users [4][3] - Tencent plans to invest over 1.5 billion in the mobile ecosystem over the next three years, focusing on a comprehensive esports ecosystem that includes a significant presence in universities [4][6] Group 3: User Engagement - The mobile version of "Valorant" is expected to attract a younger audience, particularly college students, as the gaming demographic in China evolves [6][8] - Tencent's "Delta Action" has surpassed 20 million daily active users, indicating strong user engagement and market penetration [8] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The FPS market in China is becoming increasingly competitive, with various companies, including NetEase and Bilibili, entering the space to capture market share [8][9] - Tencent's strategy includes diversifying gameplay mechanics to maintain user interest and drive market growth, suggesting that innovation will be key in this competitive landscape [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [4] Core Views - The company has exceeded revenue and profit expectations, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 1800.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 1756.0 billion yuan. Non-IFRS net profit was 613.3 billion yuan, up 22.0% year-on-year, also exceeding expectations [2][14] - AI is making substantial contributions to the gaming and advertising industries, enhancing product differentiation and driving revenue growth [3][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 1800.2 billion yuan, up 12.9% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [2][14] - Non-IFRS net profit for Q1 2025 was 613.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.0%, also above consensus estimates [2][14] Gaming Business - Online gaming revenue reached 595 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 23.7% year-on-year increase, surpassing expectations [20] - Domestic gaming revenue was 429 billion yuan, up 24.3% year-on-year, while international gaming revenue was 166 billion yuan, up 22.1% year-on-year [21] Advertising Revenue - Advertising revenue for Q1 2025 was 319 billion yuan, a 20.4% year-on-year increase, exceeding expectations [24] - The growth in advertising revenue is attributed to increased user engagement, AI upgrades, and optimization of the WeChat ecosystem [24] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue was 549 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 5.0% year-on-year increase, slightly below expectations [28] - The growth in financial technology is driven by consumer loan services and wealth management services [28] Profitability Metrics - Overall gross margin for Q1 2025 was 56%, up 3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by high-margin revenue sources [33] - The gross margin for value-added services was 60%, reflecting growth in both domestic and international gaming revenue [33] Future Earnings Forecast - The report forecasts adjusted net profits of 2441 billion yuan, 2693 billion yuan, and 2984 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 16, and 14 times [4][43]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese gaming industry is experiencing a "two extremes" situation, with top companies achieving record growth while mid-sized firms face declines and losses, leading to intensified competition and market concentration [2][4]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The top ten gaming companies in China are seeing significant shifts in their rankings, with the revenue threshold for entering the top ten increasing from 40 billion yuan in 2022 to 47 billion yuan in 2024 [2][9]. - Tencent and NetEase dominate the market, accounting for over 80% of the top ten's revenue, with Tencent's gaming revenue reaching 1,977 billion yuan in 2024, a 9.9% increase year-on-year [3][4]. - The overall gaming industry revenue, including domestic and overseas markets, is estimated at around 4,500 billion yuan, with the top ten companies contributing nearly 80% of this total [4][9]. Group 2: Company Performance - Tencent's gaming business has rebounded strongly, with a notable increase in revenue driven by both long-standing games and new releases, achieving a quarterly revenue peak of 595 billion yuan in Q1 2025 [5][6]. - NetEase's gaming revenue for 2024 was 836 billion yuan, with a modest growth of 2.5%, facing challenges in maintaining its dual-hit strategy due to a lack of new blockbuster games [7][8]. - Century Huatong's revenue surged by 70.3% to 226.2 billion yuan, largely due to the success of its hit game "Whiteout Survival" [3][10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The gaming industry is becoming increasingly concentrated, making it harder for smaller companies to compete, while opportunities still exist for mid-sized firms to create hit games [9][11]. - Companies like Bilibili and Kingsoft have made significant gains by launching successful titles, with Bilibili's gaming revenue growing by 40% to 56.1 billion yuan in 2024 [10][11]. - The decline of previously strong companies like Perfect World, which reported a net loss of 12.88 billion yuan in 2024, highlights the challenges of strategic misalignment and market competition [12][13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The gaming industry is shifting from broad expansion to a focus on quality and innovation, with companies needing to either leverage resources to build ecosystems or specialize in niche markets to survive [13][14].

Core Insights - The Chinese gaming industry is experiencing a bifurcation, with top-tier companies achieving record growth while mid-tier and smaller firms face declines and challenges in transformation [1] - The revenue threshold for the top ten gaming companies has increased significantly, indicating a trend towards greater market concentration [1][11] - Tencent and NetEase dominate the market, with their combined revenue exceeding 80% of the top ten companies' total revenue [4][5] Industry Overview - The gaming industry is witnessing a slowdown in growth, with the top ten companies generating approximately 3.5 trillion yuan in gaming revenue for 2024, accounting for nearly 80% of the total industry revenue [4][11] - The revenue threshold for entering the top ten has risen to 4.7 billion yuan, reflecting a 17.5% increase from 2022 [11] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with companies like Century Huatong and Bilibili leveraging hit games to improve their standings [1][12] Company Performance - Tencent's gaming revenue for 2024 reached 197.7 billion yuan, marking a 9.9% year-on-year increase, driven by both legacy and new titles [5][6] - NetEase's gaming revenue was 83.6 billion yuan, with a modest growth of 2.5%, indicating challenges in maintaining momentum [8][10] - Century Huatong's revenue surged by 70.3% to 22.62 billion yuan, largely due to the success of its hit game [3][12] Market Dynamics - The industry is increasingly favoring larger companies, making it difficult for smaller firms to compete effectively [1][11] - Companies that can innovate and create blockbuster games are more likely to survive, while those lacking in IP and product cycles may struggle [12][17] - The trend of focusing on long-standing games is becoming a more viable strategy for growth amid rising development costs [7][10] Future Outlook - The gaming market is shifting towards quality competition, with a clear divide between companies that can leverage resources to build ecosystems and those that focus on niche markets [17] - The potential for smaller companies to carve out niches remains, but they must innovate and adapt to changing market conditions [12][17] - The success of companies like Bilibili and Century Huatong suggests that opportunities still exist for those willing to invest in quality and creativity [12][13]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (700 HK) with a target price of HKD 583.00, indicating a potential upside of 16.1% from the current price of HKD 502.00 [1][4][31]. Core Insights - Tencent's evergreen games contribute approximately 20% to the total revenue, with a significant focus on MOBA and shooting genres, showing strong overseas growth that outpaces the industry [2][8]. - The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the gaming industry, with a projected 9% revenue growth in 2025, contributing 30% to total revenue [17][22]. - Tencent's market share in the domestic market remains stable at around 55%, while overseas gaming revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 11% from 2022 to 2024 [22][24]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Tencent are as follows: - 2023: RMB 609,015 million - 2024: RMB 660,257 million - 2025E: RMB 713,818 million - 2026E: RMB 767,880 million - 2027E: RMB 818,920 million - The year-on-year growth rates are projected to be 9.8% for 2023, 8.4% for 2024, and gradually declining to 6.6% by 2027 [3][32]. - Net profit estimates are as follows: - 2023: RMB 157,688 million - 2024: RMB 222,703 million - 2025E: RMB 244,774 million - 2026E: RMB 268,648 million - 2027E: RMB 289,453 million - Earnings per share are projected to increase from RMB 16.33 in 2023 to RMB 31.91 in 2027 [3][32]. Game Performance and Strategy - Tencent's evergreen games are expected to maintain a strong revenue contribution, with 12 to 14 titles projected for 2023/24, generating an estimated RMB 1,300 to 1,400 billion in revenue [8][11]. - The company has a robust pipeline of new games, with over 25 titles in development, many based on popular IPs, which are expected to foster the growth of more evergreen games [11][12]. - The anticipated performance of new titles such as "Dungeon & Fighter: Origin" and "Delta Force" is expected to significantly contribute to revenue streams [11][12]. Market Position - Tencent's gaming division is expected to see a revenue increase of 9% in 2025, with domestic and overseas games projected to grow by 8% and 12% respectively [17][22]. - The report highlights the differentiation in game genres among competitors, with Tencent focusing on MOBA and shooting games, while others like NetEase and miHoYo target MMORPG and RPG genres [14][15].

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 26 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 502.00 | 港元 583.00 | +16.1% | | | 腾讯控股 (700 HK) | | | | | | 常青游戏贡献总收入 20%，MOBA/射击优势显著，海外增长领先行业 | 财务数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 609,015 | 660,257 | 713,818 | 767,880 | 818,920 | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 609,015 | 660,257 | 713,818 | 767,880 | 818,920 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 同比增长 (%) | 9.8 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 7. ...