公司公告1-3Q25 收入、归母净利、扣非归母219.9、23.5、21.9 亿元（+11%、-21%、-21%），其中 3Q25 收入、归母净利润、扣非归母净利71.8、5.4、4.9 亿元（+27%、-4%、+10%），收入增长主因并 表天士力，归母净利下滑主因呼吸品类较弱。我们认为公司CHC 业务在品牌优势与渠道加持下具备较 强的经营韧性，处方药业务消化集采影响后有望逐步企稳回升，对昆药集团与天士力的收购有望推动公 司的跨越式发展，维持"增持"评级。 维持"增持"评级 考虑到并表影响提升整体费用率（上调销售、研发费用率，下调管理费用率），我们下调盈利预测，预 计25-27 年归母净利润35.0/39.7/44.8 亿元（+4%、+14%、+13% yoy）。给予公司26 年15x PE（参考公 司近十年PE TTM均值18x，考虑到当前行业整体面临下行压力有所折价），对应目标价35.67元（前值 38.10 元，基于25 年35.3 亿归母净利和25 年18x PE）。 风险提示：药店行业景气度下降，并购整合不及预期。 呼吸品类短期调整、秋冬有望好转，其余OTC 与处方药稳健增长我们估算公司内生业务（剔 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [7][5]. Core Views - The company reported revenue of 21.99 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.35 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting an 11% increase in revenue but a 21% decline in net profit [1]. - The integration of Tian Shi Li is progressing smoothly, with expectations for synergy benefits and alignment with the 14th Five-Year Plan [4]. - The company's CHC business shows strong operational resilience due to brand advantages and channel support, while the prescription drug business is expected to stabilize after absorbing the impact of centralized procurement [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 7.18 billion yuan, a 27% increase year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 4% to 540 million yuan [1][2]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 53.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company’s operating cash flow was 23.35 billion yuan, representing 106% of its revenue, indicating strong cash flow stability [3]. Business Segments - The respiratory category experienced a decline in revenue due to a drop in disease incidence, but the company is actively stocking up and expanding its product line [2]. - Other OTC categories, such as skin and gastrointestinal products, maintained steady growth despite industry pressures [2]. - The prescription drug segment is expected to perform steadily as it adapts to centralized procurement pressures, focusing on clinical value and a mix of self-research and business development [2]. Strategic Developments - The integration of Tian Shi Li is expected to enhance channel collaboration and cost optimization, contributing to a differentiated competitive advantage in the market [4]. - The company aims to leverage synergies with Huazhong Sanjiu and Kunming Pharmaceutical Group to strengthen its market position [4]. Profit Forecasts - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 3.50 billion, 3.97 billion, and 4.48 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 4%, 14%, and 13% year-on-year, respectively [5][10]. - The target price for the company is set at 35.67 yuan, based on a 15x PE ratio for 2026 [5].

Summary of Minsheng Health Conference Call Company Overview - Minsheng Health focuses on a "Four New Strategy" targeting 21 Jinweita, probiotics, therapeutic OTC products, and the Minsheng Tongchun series to enrich its product matrix, expand target demographics, and strengthen R&D and sales channels, driving company growth [2][7][10] Core Products and Market Performance - The core product, 21 Jinweita, has shown stable performance, primarily sold through pharmacies, benefiting from its OTC classification which allows for reimbursement through medical insurance [4][10] - In Q1 2025, revenue from vitamin and mineral supplements grew by 11%, while health food products saw a 49% increase [28][30] - The company acquired the probiotic company Zhongke Jiayi, enhancing its product line and achieving a 200% year-on-year growth in probiotic revenue [4][26] New Product Launches - Plans for 2025 include launching several new products such as aluminum magnesium carbonate suspension, famotidine tablets, varenicline smoking cessation medication, and minoxidil topical solution, with varenicline expected to have a high average transaction value and significant market potential [25][30] Online and Offline Channel Development - Online sales currently account for 33% of total sales, with a goal to reach 50% for both online and offline channels. The company is actively investing in e-commerce platforms, which have shown significant growth contributions [27][28] Financial Performance - The overall gross margin remains high, with the core product 21 Jinweita achieving a gross margin of 70%. Despite new product launches causing a temporary decline in gross margin, the company remains optimistic about overall profitability [14][30] Management and Strategic Direction - The management team has strong control over pharmacy sales channels, which is beneficial for expanding therapeutic OTC product distribution [11][12] - The company is exploring new consumption trends in the health sector, particularly in the area of food and medicine integration, and is leveraging private traffic for marketing [13] Market Competition and Trends - The OTC market is competitive, with key players including Centrum, Wyeth, Bayer, and Jiangzhong Pharmaceutical. Minsheng Health's 21 Jinweita brand has a strong historical presence and consumer education advantage in the domestic market [16][20] - The health supplement market is expected to grow at a mid-to-high single-digit CAGR, driven by increasing demand across various demographics [17][20] Future Outlook - Minsheng Health's strategic focus on therapeutic OTC products and the health sector positions it well for future growth, especially with the introduction of high-potential products and expansion into medical aesthetics and international markets [10][29]