盈利预测与投资建议 结合三季报中需求明显回暖、但不同客群恢复节奏存在分化的情况，整体较前次报告小幅下调了盈利预 测。预计25-27年经调整净利润为26.95/30.99/33.7亿元（前次25-26年预测为31.92/37.50亿元）。估值方 面，仍采用自由现金流折现法，对应合理市值797.44亿元，按港币兑人民币0.9088折算，对应877.47亿 港元，目标价91.15港元/股，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 利润端：高毛利结构巩固，经调整净利率再上台阶。25Q3单季，公司实现净利润7.75亿元，同比 +67.2%；经调整净利润9.92亿元，同比+34.2%，增速显著快于收入。单季毛利率约85.8%，较上年 +2.2pct，主要受高毛利的线上招聘服务占比提升，以及算法与AI工具带来合效率改善的带动。在收入 恢复的同时，公司在费用投入节奏上依然保持克制，从而带来更强的利润弹性。 分红与展望：常态化股东回报，AI与新职类拓展支撑中长期。三季度公司已完成年度股息派发，同时 于8月将股份回购计划延长至2026年8月，授权回购总额不超过2.5亿美元，"分红+回购"的股东回报框架 基本成型。业绩展望方面，公司预计25Q ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 91.15 per share, reflecting a reasonable market capitalization of approximately HKD 877.47 billion [3][6]. Core Insights - The company has shown a robust revenue acceleration with a significant increase in profit margins, achieving a net profit of CNY 7.75 billion in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 67.2% [10]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be CNY 26.95 billion, slightly down from previous estimates due to varying recovery rates among different customer segments [3][10]. - The company is focusing on integrating AI into its operations, which is expected to enhance matching efficiency and support the expansion into new job categories [10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at CNY 5,952 million, with a year-on-year growth of 32%, and is expected to reach CNY 10,390 million by 2027, maintaining a steady growth rate of 12% [5][12]. - The gross margin is expected to remain high at around 84% from 2025 to 2027, while the net profit margin is projected to stabilize around 32% to 34% during the same period [5][12]. - The company has a strong cash position, with cash and cash equivalents expected to grow from CNY 2,473 million in 2023 to CNY 11,235 million by 2027 [12][13].

Group 1 - BOSS Zhipin's stock rose nearly 2.5% following the release of its Q3 2025 financial report, which showed revenue of 2.163 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, and a net profit of 775 million RMB, up 67.2% year-on-year [1][2] - The improvement in profit is attributed to effective control of sales and marketing expenses, which decreased by 24.6% year-on-year [1][2] - The revenue structure of BOSS Zhipin is primarily from online recruitment services for corporate clients, accounting for over 99% of total revenue, with other service revenues declining due to optimization efforts [3][7] Group 2 - BOSS Zhipin's growth is driven by market demand recovery, user growth, AI integration, and cost control, leading to significant improvements in profitability [2][14] - The number of paying corporate clients reached 6.8 million, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, supported by a recovering macroeconomic environment [16][32] - The company has successfully reduced operational costs, with total expenses decreasing by 7.0% year-on-year, and marketing expenses down by 24.6% [15][20] Group 3 - BOSS Zhipin's growth is also fueled by capturing new market segments, particularly in the blue-collar job market and lower-tier cities, which have historically low online penetration [26][27] - The platform is focusing on enhancing the matching efficiency between employers and job seekers, which is crucial for maintaining user engagement and revenue growth [30][34] - The overall employment market recovery, with a 5.4% increase in the service sector's value added, has contributed to the demand for recruitment services [32][33]

Core Insights - BOSS Zhipin's stock rose by 3.95% to HKD 81.55 following the release of its Q3 2025 financial report, indicating a recovery in the recruitment market and increased penetration in blue-collar and lower-tier cities [1] Financial Performance - The company reported revenue of RMB 2.16 billion for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.2% [1] - Revenue primarily came from online recruitment services for corporate clients, amounting to RMB 2.15 billion [1] - The number of paid corporate clients reached 6.8 million, a year-on-year increase of 13.3% [1] Management Commentary - The CEO highlighted high-quality business growth in Q3, with solid progress in user growth, commercialization, and AI technology implementation [2] - The recovery in corporate recruitment demand has accelerated revenue growth, while profit margins improved alongside stable user growth, reinforcing the company's leading position in China's online recruitment market [2] Profitability and Forecast - Non-GAAP net profit for Q3 2025 increased by 34% to RMB 999.2 million, exceeding consensus estimates by 9% and the expectations of CMB International by 15% [2] - This profit growth was attributed to effective control of sales and R&D expenses, which decreased by 25% and 12% year-on-year, respectively [2] - Positive indicators noted by management include improved ratios of recruiters to job seekers, increased corporate renewal rates, and higher net revenue retention rates, all suggesting a supportive environment for future revenue growth [2] - CMB International raised the company's earnings forecast for 2025-2027 by 6%-7% due to better-than-expected profit margin expansion [2]

Core Viewpoint - BOSS Zhipin (02076) reported a strong third-quarter performance, leading to a nearly 4% increase in stock price, reflecting positive market sentiment towards the company's growth prospects [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 2.16 billion yuan in the third quarter, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.2% [1] - Net profit for the period was 775 million yuan, which is a significant increase of 67.2% compared to the previous year [1] - Revenue primarily came from online recruitment services for corporate clients, amounting to 2.15 billion yuan [1] Client Growth - As of September 30, 2025, the number of paid corporate clients reached 6.8 million, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.3% [1] Market Trends - The third quarter saw a steady recovery in the recruitment market, with the company's services gaining traction in blue-collar jobs and in third-tier and lower-tier cities [1] - The penetration of AI-driven product features in both recruitment and job-seeking segments is accelerating [1]

Core Insights - BOSS Zhipin reported Q3 2025 revenue of 2.16 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.2% [1] - The majority of the company's revenue, 2.15 billion yuan, came from online recruitment services for corporate clients [1] - As of September 30, 2025, the number of paying corporate clients reached 6.8 million, an increase of 13.3% year-on-year [1] - The company noted a steady recovery in the recruitment market, with increasing penetration in blue-collar and lower-tier cities [1]

Core Insights - BOSS Zhipin (NASDAQ: BZ, HK: 2076) reported its Q3 2025 financial results on November 18, indicating a steady recovery in the recruitment market and increased penetration in blue-collar and lower-tier cities [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 2.16 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.2% [1] - Revenue primarily came from online recruitment services for corporate clients, amounting to 2.15 billion yuan [1] Client Growth - As of September 30, 2025, the number of paid corporate clients reached 6.8 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.3% [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" for the internet sector, maintaining a positive outlook on recruitment platforms [6]. Core Insights - The recruitment industry is showing signs of recovery driven by macroeconomic improvement and targeted policy support, with expectations for growth in the second half of 2025 [1]. - There is a notable divergence in revenue trends among leading recruitment platforms, with BOSS Zhipin experiencing a year-on-year revenue increase of 11.2% in the first half of 2025, while Zhilian and Liepin saw declines of 13.2% and 10% respectively [2]. - The recovery in payment collections and new job postings is evident, with BOSS Zhipin projected to see a year-on-year revenue growth of 14.6% in Q3 2025, indicating a positive trend [3]. - Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are driving significant growth in job postings, particularly in the blue-collar sector, with BOSS Zhipin's blue-collar revenue growth outpacing white-collar growth [4]. - The recruitment platforms are expected to see improved earnings performance in the latter half of 2025, with BOSS Zhipin's strong performance validating its competitive position and potential for valuation increase [5]. Summary by Sections Recruitment Trends - Recruitment demand is recovering, with online platforms showing a positive trend in job postings and revenue collections [1][3]. Revenue Performance - BOSS Zhipin reported a revenue of 40.3 billion in H1 2025, while Zhilian and Liepin faced declines, highlighting a shift in market dynamics [2]. Job Postings - New job postings are on the rise, with BOSS Zhipin seeing a 20% year-on-year increase in July 2025, indicating a strong recovery in recruitment demand [3]. SME Growth - SMEs are increasingly contributing to job postings, with BOSS Zhipin seeing significant growth in positions from companies with fewer than 100 employees [4]. Earnings Outlook - The earnings outlook for recruitment platforms is optimistic, with BOSS Zhipin expected to continue outperforming market expectations [5].

Core Insights - BOSS Zhipin-W (02076) saw a stock price increase of over 5%, closing at HKD 86.15 with a trading volume of HKD 9.8849 million [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, BOSS Zhipin reported total revenue of RMB 4.026 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.19% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached RMB 1.235 billion, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 85.17% [1] - Revenue from online recruitment services for corporate clients increased from RMB 3.577 billion in the same period of 2024 to RMB 3.979 billion, marking an increase of 11.2% [1] - Other services revenue, primarily from paid value-added services to job seekers, rose from RMB 43.7 million in 2024 to RMB 46.7 million, a growth of 6.9% [1] User Engagement - The average monthly active users reached 60.6 million, a 19.8% increase compared to 50.6 million in the same period of 2024 [1] - The average daily active users to monthly active users ratio stood at 25.0% for the six months ending June 30, 2025 [1] Shareholder Returns - The board approved an annual dividend policy, with the dividend amount set at approximately USD 80 million for the year [1] - A share repurchase plan of up to USD 250 million was also announced [1]

Core Viewpoint - BOSS Zhipin (02076) reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by growth in paying enterprise clients and online recruitment services [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for the period reached 4.026 billion RMB, representing an 11.19% year-on-year increase [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.235 billion RMB, showing an impressive 85.17% year-on-year growth [1] - Revenue from online recruitment services for enterprise clients increased from 3.577 billion RMB in the same period of 2024 to 3.979 billion RMB, a rise of 11.2% [1] - Other services revenue, primarily from paid value-added services to job seekers, grew from 43.7 million RMB to 46.7 million RMB, marking a 6.9% increase [1] User Engagement - The average monthly active users reached 60.6 million, a 19.8% increase compared to 50.6 million in the same period of 2024 [1] - The average daily active users to monthly active users ratio stood at 25.0% for the six months ending June 30, 2025 [1] Shareholder Returns - The board approved an annual dividend policy, with the dividend amount set at approximately 80 million USD for the year [1] - A share repurchase plan of up to 250 million USD was also announced [1]