华源证券近日发布大能源行业2026年第7周周报：2025年国网总部总计招标金额894亿元，超过2022年的 2倍，相比2024年增长27%，增速有所加快。从金额来看，组合电器、变压器、电缆及附件、开关柜、 继电保护、通信网设备、电抗器是招标金额排名前7的设备，除通信网设备和断路器外，其余设备中标 金额均同比增加。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点： 电网：2025年国网总部招标总结 本报告总结国网总部2025年输变电设备招标（不含单一来源采购）情况。2025年国网总部总计招标金额 894亿元，超过2022年的2倍，相比2024年增长27%，增速有所加快。从金额来看，组合电器、变压器、 电缆及附件、开关柜、继电保护、通信网设备、电抗器是招标金额排名前7的设备，除通信网设备和断 路器外，其余设备中标金额均同比增加。上市公司中，中国西电（601179）、平高电气（600312）、思 源电气（002028）、特变电工（600089）、国网信通（600131）、国电南瑞（600406）中标金额排名前 6，除国电南瑞外其它公司中标金额均有较高增长，其中思源电气相比2024年中标金额增长接近80%。 主要设备招标量、中标金额 ...

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - The document pertains to the power industry, specifically focusing on the State Grid Corporation of China and its upcoming bidding activities for 2026. Key Points and Arguments - The State Grid is initiating the bidding process for 2026, with a supplementary bid for 2025's third batch, maintaining the same bidding volume as previously announced for this batch [1]. - A total of approximately 16.95 million smart meters are to be bid on, categorized as follows: - Class A: 14.91 million units - Class B: 1.69 million units - Class C: 0.34 million units - Class D: 0.0102 million units - High-end electric meters: 2,915 units [1]. - For transformers, the current bidding includes 882 units, which represents 13% of the total planned for 2025 [1]. - The bidding for switchgear includes 1,472 units, accounting for 9% of the total for 2025 [1]. - In terms of protection and monitoring equipment, the bidding includes: - 3,952 units of protection devices, representing 10% of the total for 2025 - 284 sets of substation monitoring equipment, showing a year-on-year increase of 8%, which accounts for 12% of the total for 2025 [1]. - The expected opening date for both bidding processes is March 2, 2025 [1]. Additional Important Information - The document emphasizes the consistency in bidding volumes compared to previous announcements, indicating a stable demand in the power equipment sector [1].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The document pertains to the State Grid Corporation of China and its upcoming bidding activities for metering and substation equipment in 2025 and 2026 [1]. Core Insights and Arguments - The 2025 third batch of supplementary bidding for metering equipment has been initiated, with the bidding volume consistent with the previously announced figures for the same batch [1]. - A total of approximately 16.95 million smart meters are to be bid on, which includes: - Class A meters: 14.91 million - Class B meters: 1.69 million - Class C meters: 0.34 million - Class D meters: 0.0102 million - High-end meters: 2,915 units [1]. - The first batch of bidding for substation equipment includes: - Transformers: 882 units, accounting for 13% of the total for 2025 [1]. - Switchgear: 1,472 units, representing 9% of the total for 2025 [1]. - Relay protection and monitoring: 3,952 units for relay protection, making up 10% of the total for 2025; substation monitoring bids are for 284 units, showing an 8% year-on-year increase and accounting for 12% of the total for 2025 [1]. - The expected opening date for both bidding activities is March 2, 2025 [1]. Other Important Details - The document highlights the significant scale of the bidding process, indicating a robust demand for smart metering and substation equipment in the upcoming years [1]. - The year-on-year increase in substation monitoring bids suggests a growing emphasis on monitoring technology within the industry [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the synchronized demand for domestic power equipment, with both internal and external markets showing positive trends [1] - Domestic demand for power equipment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is experiencing a resonance in market conditions, with strong demand for transformers and switchgear [1] - The pace of ultra-high voltage (UHV) project advancement is slightly below expectations, while flexible direct current (DC) applications are reaching a turning point [1] Group 2 - The price of electric meters continues to decline, but the implementation of new standards in 2025 is expected to drive a price recovery [1] - The external market is projected to see a significant slowdown in demand growth for power generation by 2025, while demand on the consumption side remains relatively weak [1] - With the increase in AI server power, the AIDC power supply and distribution method is expected to evolve along the UPS-HVDC-SST path, with the global AIDC power equipment market projected to exceed 410 billion yuan by 2030 [1] Group 3 - The State Grid's fixed asset investment for the "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, representing a 40% increase compared to the "14th Five-Year Plan," indicating a continuous record high in grid investment [1] - The Carbon Neutrality 50 ETF (159861) tracks the Environmental Protection 50 Index (930614), which selects 50 companies from the Chinese A-share market that excel in environmental protection, clean energy, and energy-saving technologies [1] - The index covers various sub-industries, including water treatment, air pollution control, solid waste management, and renewable energy, reflecting a focus on environmentally friendly enterprises [1]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月05日 AIDC与电力设备2026年度投资策略 国内需求确定性夯实，出海与AIDC发展空间可期 行业研究 · 行业投资策略 电力设备新能源 · 电力设备 投资评级：优于大市 | 证券分析师：王蔚祺 | 证券分析师：王晓声 | 证券分析师：袁阳 | | --- | --- | --- | | 010-88005313 | 010-88005231 | 0755-22940078 | | wangweiqi2@guosen.com.cn | wangxiaosheng@guosen.com.cn | yuanyang2@guosen.com.cn | | S0980520080003 | S0980523050002 | S0980524030002 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 u "十四五"电力设备行业复盘：网内外需求景气共振，龙头企业出海加速 "十四五"以来，在新能源装机放量带动下，电源投资高速增长；电网投资保持稳健增长，但增速显著低于电源投资。在电源和电网投资带动下，"十四五"国内电力设备需求呈现网内外景 气共振态势。网内市场方面，变压器、组合电 ...

Core Viewpoint - The electric power sector is experiencing high growth due to significant investments in grid construction, with a notable influx of capital into the sector, particularly benefiting companies like China XD Electric [2][6]. Investment Trends - The State Grid's investment plan of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan marks a historic high, focusing on building a new type of grid platform that enhances transmission capacity and supports large-scale renewable energy projects [6][10]. - The investment is expected to drive demand for ultra-high voltage direct current projects, distribution network upgrades, and smart microgrid developments, indicating a strong market outlook [6][7]. Market Dynamics - The demand for grid equipment is being catalyzed by global energy transitions and technological advancements, with European data centers driving the need for enhanced power supply solutions [4][5]. - Domestic technological breakthroughs are also contributing to the efficiency and upgrade of power equipment, further supporting the industry's growth [4]. Company Performance - China XD Electric has secured significant contracts, including a total of 24.52 billion yuan from two major projects, positioning itself as a key player in the electric power investment chain [9][10]. - The company reported a revenue of 16.96 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting an 11.85% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising by 19.29% [9][10]. Industry Outlook - The electric power equipment sector is witnessing a collective bullish trend, with companies like Siyi Electric and TBEA reporting substantial revenue growth, indicating a robust industry environment [11][12]. - The stock performance of major players in the sector has surged, with average gains of 30.39% in the transmission and distribution equipment segment since the beginning of 2026, driven by strong fundamentals and order backlogs [13].

Group 1: Investment Overview - The State Grid Corporation of China plans to invest 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, marking a historical high and a 40% increase compared to the previous period [1][2] - In 2023, the company completed a grid investment of 538.1 billion yuan, which is expected to rise to 609.2 billion yuan in 2024, surpassing 600 billion yuan for the first time [1][2] - By 2025, the fixed asset investment is projected to exceed 650 billion yuan, setting another historical record [1] Group 2: Infrastructure Development - The investment will focus on technological innovation and the construction of a new power system, including a backbone grid, distribution networks, and smart microgrids [1][2] - The new grid platform aims to enhance cross-regional transmission capacity by over 30% compared to the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][3] - The development of the grid will support the integration of approximately 30% of renewable energy generation and enhance distributed energy capacity to 900 million kilowatts [3] Group 3: Industry Opportunities - The investment plan is expected to create a high-growth cycle for equipment manufacturers related to ultra-high voltage construction, including key components like converters and transformers [4] - Companies such as TBEA Co., Ltd. and Henan Pinggao Electric Co., Ltd. are positioned to capitalize on the market opportunities arising from the grid upgrades and digital transformation [4][5] - The focus on digitalization will drive demand for smart meters, digital dispatch systems, and AI applications in grid operations [4][5]

Group 1 - The global AI computing power competition is shifting from the chip level to the energy level, creating unprecedented structural opportunities in the power equipment industry as AI server shipments continue to rise [1] - The AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) is reshaping the growth logic of the power equipment industry, with leading companies experiencing synchronized leaps in performance and valuation [1] - Policies are being implemented to support the development of "AI + energy," with clear timelines and roadmaps established by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration [1] Group 2 - The demand for electricity from AI computing power is increasing, necessitating upgrades to the power grid and restructuring of power equipment demand [2] - From 2020 to 2030, global computing power is expected to grow nearly tenfold, with data centers projected to consume 1500 TWh of electricity annually, equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of approximately 500 million households [2] - Investment in domestic and international power grid projects is accelerating, with cumulative investment in national grid projects reaching 560.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9% [2] Group 3 - Strong demand growth is being transmitted to listed companies in the industry, with core equipment manufacturers experiencing significant increases in orders and performance [3] - Hainan Jinpan Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. announced a contract worth 98.99 million USD for power products for data center projects with overseas clients [3] - Shenzhen Oulutong Electronics Co., Ltd. is actively expanding its global market presence, with international clients including LG, HP, Walmart, Google, and others [3] Group 4 - Shenzhen Invid Tech Co., Ltd. is a leading provider of liquid cooling solutions, benefiting from the high-density heat dissipation needs of AI servers, and has established a comprehensive liquid cooling business platform [4]

Core Viewpoint - The electric grid equipment sector is experiencing a significant structural change, with domestic investments increasing while foreign capital is retreating, indicating a new growth phase for the industry in 2026 [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance and Key Developments - On January 7, 2026, China XD Electric (601179.SH) saw a strong surge, nearing its historical high of 11.08 yuan, following its successful bid for a 1.447 billion yuan project from the State Grid [2][3]. - The electric grid equipment index rose by 1.88% on the same day, reaching a one-month high, with significant gains observed in other companies like Sanbian Technology (002112.SZ) and Far East Holdings (600869.SH) [3]. - In 2025, the electric grid equipment index increased by 33%, reaching a historical peak, driven by accelerated investments from the State Grid and high demand for overseas grid upgrades [3][5]. Group 2: Investment Trends and Structural Changes - The total market size for domestic electric grid equipment is projected to exceed 2 trillion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 15%, supported by stable investments from the State Grid and Southern Grid [5]. - The bidding amount for State Grid's transmission and transformation equipment reached 91.9 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 26% year-on-year increase, with significant growth in the bidding for ultra-high voltage transformers and combined electrical devices [5]. - The structural changes in investment direction are leading to a divergence in the performance of different segments within the electric grid equipment industry, with high demand for main grid and transformer exports while some segments face pressure [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Opportunities - The acceleration of ultra-high voltage project approvals is expected to provide clear guidance for State Grid's investment growth in 2026, with projections for four new direct current lines to be approved [6]. - The demand for electric transformers is anticipated to remain high due to aging infrastructure in the U.S. and a significant supply gap, presenting a historic opportunity for domestic companies to expand internationally [7]. - The introduction of next-generation solid-state transformers, which can improve power supply efficiency to over 90%, is expected to be a key development in 2026, with domestic companies likely to benefit from high-margin orders [7].

Core Viewpoint - The electric grid equipment sector is experiencing a significant upturn in the A-share market, with leading company China Xidian (601179.SH) recently winning a bid for over 1.4 billion yuan in transmission and transformation projects, marking a strong start to 2026 [3][4][6]. Industry Overview - The electric grid equipment industry is entering a new phase characterized by stable overall growth and structural differentiation, with domestic main grid transmission and transformation and overseas power equipment exports becoming core growth engines [3][4][7]. - The market size for domestic electric grid equipment enterprises is projected to exceed 2 trillion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15%, driven by stable investment from State Grid and Southern Grid [7]. Investment Trends - The investment in the electric grid is expected to accelerate in 2026, supported by policy enhancements and the rapid approval of ultra-high voltage projects, which will provide clear guidance for State Grid's investment growth [9][10]. - The bidding volume for State Grid's transmission and transformation equipment saw a significant increase in 2025, with the total amount reaching 91.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 26% [7][10]. Structural Changes - The internal dynamics of the electric grid equipment sector are showing signs of structural differentiation, with high demand for main grid and transformer exports, while segments like smart meters are facing some pressure [7][10]. - The approval of ultra-high voltage projects is expected to provide ample project reserves for related enterprises, enhancing visibility for future performance over the next 2-3 years [10][11]. Export Opportunities - The demand for overseas upgrades and renovations in the electric grid is creating significant export opportunities for Chinese companies, with transformer exports reaching 5.5 billion USD in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 49% [7][11]. - The new generation of solid-state transformers is anticipated to become a key focus in 2026, with efficiency improvements over traditional transformers [11]. Market Sentiment - The recent surge in electric grid equipment stocks is attributed to market expectations of accelerated investment and sustained high demand for exports in 2026 [9][10]. - Analysts suggest that the electric power transformer has become a "hard currency" in the global supply-demand mismatch, indicating strong future demand for Chinese electric equipment exporters [11].