每周 一 景 ：甘孜藏族自治州四川省贡嘎雪山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【电新】电力设备出海专题——数据中心等带动变压器，开关需求，供给缺口明显 扩产周期导致供需缺口短期无法缓解 。 全球市场已对电力设备需求激增作出积极回应，并宣布了新的扩产计划和投资。然而，产能扩张需要时间。 目前变压器订单积压严重。根据 IEA 披露的变压器积压订单情况表，预计 2025 年交货周期仍将处于高位，产能紧张局面预计难以缓解。 我们认为，当需求在短期内集中爆发，而变压器产能的提升需要时间，就会成为供应链中的瓶颈，导致缺货。 2025 年美国电力变压器需求预计将超出供应 30% ，配电变压器缺口达 10% 。 中国变压器出口占全球 1/4 ，欧美市场依赖进口。 全球范围，电力变压器贸易在 2018 年至 2023 年间增长了 80% ，但供应链相对集中，中国、意大利、韩国和土耳其合计占总贸易额的一半，其中中国单 独贡献了四分之一。 数据中心、新能源建设，带动变压器，开关需求 。 全球数据中心市场持续增长。根据 Fortune Business Insights ，全球数据中心市场规模将由 2024 年 2427.2 亿美元，增 ...

消息面上，近日，西门子能源披露2026年第一财季财报，得益于燃气轮机和电网设备需求持续旺盛，该 公司本财季的订单额大增34%至176.09亿欧元，使得积压订单达到创纪录的1460亿欧元。财通证券认 为，当前海外重燃主机厂扩产节奏克制，供需硬缺口将长期延续。估计2025年全球重燃意向订单已超 80GW，而实际可交付产能仅约50GW，三菱重工测算GTCC联合循环重燃市场需求或接近100GW，供 需矛盾显著。核心原因在于头部厂商扩产周期(3-5年)滞后于AIDC、调峰等需求爆发。 华泰证券指出，数据中心Time to power诉求下，轻燃、内燃机成为多元化的主供电新方案。头部重燃扩 产仍待2027年后释放，30%+的供需缺口下需求外溢趋势短期内仍将加强。一方面，国内轻燃已实现自 主知识产权和热部件自供能力，看好国产燃机出海趋势。另一方面，传统用于备电和船舶的内燃机在电 力短缺下亦有望提供主供电解决方案，看好国内内燃机及相关产业链出海。 电力设备股逆市上扬，截至发稿，东方电气(01072)涨13.8%，报39.9港元；哈尔滨电气(01133)涨 4.15%，报27.08港元；上海电气(02727)涨3.66%，报4 ...

在中国，电网投资的宏伟蓝图已经率先展开。1月15日，国家电网正式宣布，"十五五"期间（2026— 2030年）固定资产投资总额将达4万亿元，较"十四五"时期增长40%，年均投资规模达8000亿元。紧随 其后，1月19日，南方电网也披露2026年固定资产投资安排1800亿元，连续五年创下新高，年均增速达 9.5%，如未来几年按此增速，南方电网未来5年预计总固定资产投资或将在1万亿元左右。 海外市场方面，当前人工智能快速迭代、数据中心大规模建设，引发巨量电力需求。以欧美为代表的发 达经济体，正面临电网基础设施严重老化的问题。去年以来，全球掀起中国变压器抢购潮，我国大量变 压器工厂已经处于满产状态。 智通财经2月25日讯（记者 肖良华）2月25日，四连板汉缆股份(002498.SZ)发布业绩快报，2025年度公 司增收不增利。此外，据公司去年上半年数据，公司海外市场份额极低，在全球缺电，中国变压器等电 力设备大力出海的背景下，或难享出海红利。 汉缆股份发布的业绩快报显示，公司2025年实现营业总收入104.67亿元，同比增长13.04%；净利润5.92 亿元，同比下降9.59%。 公司表示，2025年公司在市场开发 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance on February 4, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up while the ChiNext Index declined, and the electric grid equipment sector experienced a brief surge before retreating [1] - The only ETF tracking the CSI Electric Grid Equipment Theme Index, the electric grid equipment ETF (159326), fell by 0.61% with a trading volume of 558 million yuan, while stocks like Hangzhou Electric and Hongsheng Huayuan hit the daily limit [1] - According to the General Administration of Customs, key power equipment exports are projected to reach 71.5 billion USD from January to November 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 20%, with transformers, winding wires, insulators, and switchgear showing significant growth rates of 35%, 24%, 45%, and 29% respectively [1] Group 2 - China Galaxy Securities anticipates a potential acceleration in electric grid investment, with overseas supply unable to meet demand, leading to extended delivery times for power transformers and high-voltage cables in Europe and the U.S., which could extend into the 2030s [1] - The company believes that Chinese electric equipment manufacturers are entering a golden development period for overseas exports, with expectations for continued growth in both volume and price in 2026 [1] - According to Chengtong Securities, there is a pressing need for the replacement of aging electric grid equipment in developed economies, where over 20% of equipment has exceeded its 20-year lifespan, benefiting domestic electric grid companies amid increasing investment growth [1] Group 3 - The electric grid equipment ETF (159326) is the only ETF in the market tracking the CSI Electric Grid Equipment Theme Index, with a strong representation in sectors such as power transmission and transformation equipment, grid automation equipment, cable components, and distribution equipment [2] - The ETF includes leading companies in overseas markets such as Tebian Electric, China XD Electric, and Baobian Electric, showcasing its comprehensive industry coverage [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is currently experiencing a short-term adjustment, but institutions remain optimistic about the potential for upward movement in February, traditionally a strong month for the market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44% this week, while the Shenzhen Component dropped by 1.62%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.09%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index declined by 3.54% [1]. - Historical data indicates that February has a 76% probability of positive returns, with an average increase of 3.4% and a median increase of 3.0%, making it a traditional window for bullish sentiment in the A-share market [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Focus areas for investment include sectors with strong performance indicators such as AI hardware, storage chips, and industrial software, as well as the renewable energy sector, particularly in energy storage and lithium battery supply chains [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of sectors highlighted in the 14th Five-Year Plan, including commercial aerospace, 6G technology, nuclear power, hydrogen energy, quantum communication, and brain-computer interfaces, which are expected to receive policy support [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market's short-term fluctuations are attributed to natural digestion after high turnover rates and a peak in the proportion of transactions in non-ferrous metals, but the underlying logic for a spring rally remains intact [3]. - The liquidity environment is expected to remain supportive, with multiple factors such as increased insurance allocations, the maturation of fixed deposits, and foreign capital inflows contributing to a favorable market outlook [3]. Group 4: Sector Rotation - The A-share market is experiencing accelerated sector rotation, with semiconductors, liquor, and real estate showing temporary gains, although the sustainability of these trends is uncertain [4]. - The report suggests that structural opportunities will continue to arise, particularly in technology innovation themes and manufacturing sectors, with a focus on recovery paths for profitability in resource sectors [4]. Group 5: Market Sentiment - The market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with technology and cyclical sectors reaching historical valuation highs, indicating that upward movement will depend on substantial industry trends and earnings growth [5]. - The focus remains on cyclical recovery and advanced manufacturing, with ongoing attention to sectors such as non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals, which are expected to show resilience despite market fluctuations [6].

Core Insights - The power crisis triggered by the surge in AI computing power is creating new opportunities for public funds to explore Chinese power equipment assets overseas [1] - Public funds are intensively reallocating their portfolios, prioritizing the power equipment sector as a key investment area [2] Group 1: Investment Trends - Major public funds such as Ping An Fund, Debon Fund, and others are increasing their positions in smart distribution and gas turbine sectors, with companies like Yingliu Co., Jereh, and Dongfang Electric becoming core holdings [2] - New ETFs focused on power equipment and energy infrastructure are being launched by institutions like Invesco Great Wall and Huabao Fund, indicating a strong interest in this sector [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The ongoing power gap in North America has led fund managers to recognize the critical role of traditional power sources, with Morgan Stanley raising the projected power shortfall for U.S. data centers from 44 GW to 47 GW [3] - The International Energy Agency warns that global data center power demand will exceed 900 TWh by 2030, with NVIDIA's GPU clusters alone consuming 150-200 GW of power [3] Group 3: Market Performance - The power equipment sector saw an overall increase of over 40% in 2025, with specific segments like smart distribution and gas turbine components rising over 60% [5] - Companies like Siyuan Electric have seen their stock prices soar, with a cumulative increase of 14 times since 2020, benefiting from the upgrade of power grids and overseas demand [4] Group 4: Strategic Insights - The consensus that "AI's end is electricity" is driving public funds to focus on power equipment, as the demand for stable power sources in data centers is increasing [6] - Fund managers emphasize the importance of energy as a hard asset in the context of the AI revolution, highlighting the need for rapid upgrades in power infrastructure to meet growing energy demands [6][7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Insights - The State Grid's "14th Five-Year Plan" investment is projected to reach 4 trillion yuan, representing a growth of over 40% compared to the previous plan, with an average annual investment compound growth rate of approximately 7% during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [9] - The focus remains on UHV (Ultra High Voltage) and power transmission, with a target to enhance cross-regional transmission capacity by over 30% by the end of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [9] - There is optimism regarding investment opportunities in distribution networks and smart technologies, particularly in urban and rural areas, to support zero-carbon initiatives and meet the demand for charging facilities [9] - The report highlights the potential for domestic power equipment companies to expand into North America due to a shortage of electricity, which is expected to drive both volume and price increases [9] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - Investment suggestion: The implementation of the State Grid's 4 trillion yuan investment plan is expected to sustain high prosperity in the domestic power equipment industry, with additional demand from North America and new technology requirements [3] - Key targets include: - UHV-related companies: Pinggao Electric (600312), XJ Electric (000400), China West Electric (601179) [3] - Companies related to power equipment exports and SST solid-state transformers: Jinpan Technology (688676), Siyuan Electric (002028), Sifang Co. (601126), Igor (002922), Anke Zhidian (300617) [3]

Core Viewpoint - China Galaxy Securities predicts that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the investment scale in the power grid may reach around 1 trillion yuan annually, with significant growth expected in the investment from State Grid and Southern Grid in 2026 [1] Group 1: Investment Outlook - The total fixed asset investment by State Grid is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan," a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, while Southern Grid's investment is projected to be around 1 trillion yuan [1] - The anticipated investment amounts for State Grid and Southern Grid in 2026 are 700 billion yuan and 189 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 7.6% and 8.0% [1] Group 2: High Voltage and Main Network - By the end of 2025, State Grid plans to complete 42 high-voltage projects, with expectations for further approvals and construction of additional projects in 2026 [2] - The demand for core equipment in the power system is increasing, with a projected tender amount for State Grid's transmission and transformation equipment reaching 91.88 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25.3% [2] Group 3: Distribution Network and Metering - The distribution network is expected to see significant growth, with a total tender amount of 124.57 billion yuan in 2025, driven by the demand for smart upgrades [3] - The new standards for metering equipment are expected to lead to a recovery in prices, with 2026 anticipated to be a year of simultaneous volume and price increases [3] Group 4: Global Trends and AI Demand - North America is facing a significant electricity shortfall, with AI data center (AIDC) demand projected to increase electricity consumption from 176 TWh in 2023 to between 325-580 TWh by 2028 [4] - Global electricity and grid investment is expected to reach new highs, with projections of $1.5 trillion in 2024 and over $3.3 trillion by 2035, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% from 2025 to 2035 [4] Group 5: Export Opportunities - The overseas supply of power equipment is expected to face shortages, with delivery times for transformers and high-voltage cables in Europe and the U.S. nearly doubling [5] - In the first 11 months of 2025, exports of transformers, meters, and other electrical equipment showed significant growth, indicating a continued upward trend in 2026 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The power grid equipment sector in China is experiencing a sustained high level of activity, with significant investments and structural changes expected in 2026, driven by domestic demand and overseas expansion opportunities [1][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance and Investment - China Xidian (601179.SH) recently won a bid for a power transmission project worth over 1.4 billion yuan, marking a strong start to the year [1][2]. - The stock price of China Xidian approached its historical high of 11.08 yuan, reflecting positive market sentiment [1][3]. - The overall power grid equipment index rose by 33% in 2025, reaching a historical peak, supported by increased investments from the State Grid [2][5]. Group 2: Structural Changes and Growth Drivers - The power grid equipment industry is entering a phase of stable growth with structural differentiation, where domestic transmission and transformation and overseas power equipment exports are expected to be the main growth engines [1][6]. - The total market size for domestic power grid equipment is projected to exceed 2 trillion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 15% [3][4]. - The bidding amount for transmission and transformation equipment reached 91.9 billion yuan in 2025, a 26% increase year-on-year, indicating strong demand [4][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - In 2026, the approval of four key direct current lines is anticipated, which will further enhance the project pipeline for related companies [6][7]. - The demand for solid-state transformers is expected to rise significantly, with efficiency improvements over traditional transformers, marking 2026 as a critical year for their introduction [7]. - The ongoing structural changes in the power grid investment landscape are expected to provide a solid foundation for the performance of leading companies in the sector [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Huaming Equipment with a "Buy" rating, assigning a target price of 29.5 RMB based on a 30.4x PE for 2026 [3][8][15]. Core Views - Huaming Equipment ranks first in the domestic transformer tap changer industry and second globally, with a robust growth outlook driven by overseas expansion, maintenance services, and ultra-high voltage (UHV) business [3][15]. - The global power grid investment is entering an upward cycle, which is expected to boost the company's performance significantly, with a projected CAGR of 18.7% for net profit from 2025 to 2027 [3][15]. - The company is transitioning from a "device manufacturer" to a "full lifecycle service provider," leveraging its high installed base for maintenance services, which presents substantial growth potential [5][18]. Summary by Sections Investment Outlook - The report highlights that global power grid investments are on the rise, with significant constraints on overseas power equipment supply. The company’s export scale is expected to grow, with direct and indirect exports projected at 3.4 billion, 4.9 billion, and 3.1 billion RMB for 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 61.9%, 42.6%, and 45.3% [4][16]. - The company is actively exploring opportunities in Europe, Southeast Asia, and North America, with a focus on localized layouts and customized solutions [4][16]. Ultra-High Voltage and Maintenance Services - The domestic ultra-high voltage market is anticipated to grow significantly, with the company expected to capture a 60% market share, translating to an additional revenue of 2.2 billion RMB during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [5][17]. - The maintenance business is projected to reach a potential revenue scale of 7 billion RMB, with a significant increase in orders expected in the coming years [18]. Competitive Advantages - The company maintains a high gross margin, consistently above 55% since 2019, attributed to its strong market position and R&D capabilities, which create substantial barriers to entry for competitors [6][19]. - Huaming Equipment's comprehensive manufacturing capabilities, with 80% of components produced in-house, enhance its cost control and supply chain stability, particularly advantageous during periods of overseas market tightness [6][19]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits of 7.30 billion, 8.66 billion, and 10.28 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.81, 0.97, and 1.15 RMB [7][12]. - The company’s overall revenue is expected to grow from 2.32 billion RMB in 2024 to 3.29 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [12][13].