华福证券 ADC 药物迎来快速发展期，市场规模广阔 团队成员 投资要点： 政策红利加速释放：国家密集出台多项抗体偶联药物专项政策，推动 ADC 药物研发标准化。同时，2024 年医保目录新增 5 款 ADC 药物，国产 药物借政策东风抢占市场先机。 百亿蓝海爆发在即：全球 ADC 市场已突破 140 亿美元，有望在 2030 年突破 660 亿美元（CAGR 30.3%），中国市场发展同样极为迅猛，作为 全球 ADC 市场核心增长极，有望在 2030 年突破 600 亿元人民币。 临床需求刚性凸显：乳腺癌、淋巴瘤等核心适应症全球年新增病例超 240 万，ADC 药物凭借"抗体靶向+毒素杀伤"的特性替代传统化疗趋势 明确，Enhertu® 2024 年销售额达 37.5 亿美元印证临床价值。 风险提示 产业链价值逐渐凸显：中国国内已形成完整 ADC 产业链，上中游企 业受益最为显著。 分析师： 赵月(S0210524050016) zy30563@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 技术研发不及预期；宏观需求变化；医疗事件风险 华福证券 华福证券 策略点评 正文目录 | 1 | 政策指导促进 ADC 药物发展，多 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent reforms in medical insurance payment methods, particularly the special single negotiation mechanism, aim to support the use of innovative drugs and medical devices, addressing concerns about high costs in medical institutions [1][3][4]. Group 1: Special Single Negotiation Mechanism - The special single negotiation mechanism is designed to provide reasonable compensation for medical services when the costs exceed three times the payment standard [2][4]. - The mechanism will be refined in conjunction with national policies supporting the development of innovative drugs and medical devices, indicating a commitment to support medical institutions in treating complex and critical patients [3][4]. - The number of cases eligible for special single negotiation should not exceed 5% of the total discharged cases under the DRG or DIP payment systems [4]. Group 2: Impact on Innovative Drugs - The reforms are expected to benefit drugs listed in the commercial health insurance innovative drug directory, particularly those with high clinical value and patient benefits [5][6]. - The introduction of the commercial health insurance innovative drug directory is anticipated to provide a framework for local authorities to evaluate and implement the special single negotiation policy effectively [5][7]. - Local governments, such as those in Hainan and Guangzhou, are developing their own innovative drug directories to enhance the support for innovative drugs and medical devices [8][9]. Group 3: Regional Initiatives - Regions with relatively abundant medical insurance funds, like Shanghai and Zhejiang, have already launched local supportive directories for innovative drugs and devices [8][10]. - The Zhejiang Medical Security Bureau has established a list of innovative medical technologies eligible for payment incentives, focusing on drugs that have recently entered the basic medical insurance directory [11][12]. - Shanghai has implemented a strategy to adjust payment standards for cases involving new technologies, allowing for full payment without a control ratio for high-cost cases [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, indicating it is expected to outperform the market [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights the breakthrough therapy of TRS005, an ADC targeting CD20, which shows potential to outperform existing treatments for DLBCL [4][40]. - The DLBCL market is projected to grow significantly, with the Chinese market expected to increase from RMB 58 billion in 2019 to RMB 186 billion by 2024, and further to RMB 369 billion by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 26.2% [21][24]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovative drugs and suggests focusing on companies with strong performance and potential catalysts in the upcoming quarters [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index rose by 1.5% during the week of June 23-27, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.5 percentage points [3][49]. - The top five performing stocks included Shenzhou Cell (+30.5%), Haooubo (+27.1%), and Huaren Health (+26.0%) [3][63]. 2. DLBCL and ADC Treatment - DLBCL accounts for approximately 30-40% of all NHL cases, with a significant portion of patients remaining untreated despite existing therapies [4][17]. - The report discusses the transition from traditional chemotherapy to targeted therapies, highlighting the introduction of ADCs as a promising treatment avenue [24][27]. - TRS005 has shown promising results in early trials, with an overall response rate (ORR) of 59.4% in the 1.8 mg/kg dosage group [42][46]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on innovative drugs as a long-term investment strategy, particularly in companies that are expected to report strong Q2 earnings [4][5]. - Recommended stocks include Innovent Biologics, Kintor Pharmaceutical, and Zhenbao Island, among others [5][13]. 4. Industry Trends - The report notes that the ADC sector is gaining traction, with TRS005 being a key focus due to its potential advantages over existing therapies [40][47]. - The overall pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a shift towards innovative treatments, driven by advancements in technology and an aging population [21][24].