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三只松鼠(300783):抖音和分销驱动增长 费投加大导致盈利承压
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 00:50
Core Viewpoint - The company reported mixed financial results for the first half of 2025, with revenue growth but significant declines in net profit, indicating challenges in profitability despite revenue increases in certain segments [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.478 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.94%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 138 million yuan, down 52.22% year-on-year [1]. - Q2 2025 revenue was 1.754 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.77%, but net profit was a loss of 101 million yuan, with losses widening compared to the previous year [1]. Revenue Breakdown - Online revenue in H1 2025 was 4.295 billion yuan, up 5% year-on-year, with Douyin, JD, and Tmall contributing 1.478 billion, 808 million, and 882 million yuan respectively, showing growth of 20.8%, 1.9%, and a decline of 18.6% [2]. - Offline distribution revenue reached 938 million yuan, a significant increase of 40.2% year-on-year, while store revenue was 187 million yuan, down 18.7% [2]. Product Performance - In H1 2025, revenue from nuts, baked goods, and comprehensive categories was 2.731 billion, 682 million, and 1.398 billion yuan respectively, with comprehensive category revenue growing by 49.7% year-on-year [2]. Cost and Profitability - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 25.08%, a decrease of 0.77 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising raw material costs for nuts [2]. - In Q2 2025, the gross margin was 21.57%, down 0.33 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting pressure on profitability from increased costs [2]. Expense Analysis - In Q2 2025, the expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs were 24.16%, 5.16%, 0.33%, and 0.17% respectively, with sales expenses rising due to increased market investments [3]. - The increase in management expenses was attributed to higher property depreciation and amortization costs [3]. Strategic Outlook - The company is accelerating its full-category layout and aims for long-term growth through a "high-end cost-performance" strategy, focusing on new snack launches and optimizing supply chain efficiency [3]. - The company is also exploring self-branded "lifestyle stores" to enhance customer reach and service quality [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company expects revenues of 12.534 billion, 14.779 billion, and 16.739 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 18%, 18%, and 13% respectively [4]. - Projected net profits for the same period are 230 million, 567 million, and 720 million yuan, with a significant recovery expected in 2026 [4].
三只松鼠(300783):抖音和分销驱动增长,费投加大导致盈利承压
Guohai Securities· 2025-09-01 14:05
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10]. Core Views - The company's growth is driven by Douyin and distribution channels, but increased expenses are putting pressure on profitability [3][7]. - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.478 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.94%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 138 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52.22% [6][10]. - The company is focusing on a full-category layout and aims for long-term growth through product differentiation and quality enhancement [10]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, online revenue reached 4.295 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%, with Douyin contributing significantly [7]. - Offline distribution revenue was 938 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.2%, while store revenue decreased by 18.7% [7]. - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 25.08%, a decrease of 0.77 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising raw material costs [7][10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its revenue growth, with projected revenues of 12.534 billion yuan, 14.779 billion yuan, and 16.739 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 18%, 18%, and 13% [9][10]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 230 million yuan in 2025, with a significant recovery expected in subsequent years [9][10]. - The company is enhancing its supply chain efficiency and exploring self-branded lifestyle stores to improve its offline presence [10].
三只松鼠(300783):营收快速增长 费用投入&折摊增加利润短期承压 看好线下分销发展
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-28 08:43
Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.478 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.94%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 138 million yuan, a decrease of 52.22% year-on-year [1] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 1.754 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 22.77%, but a net loss attributable to shareholders of 101 million yuan, compared to a loss of 19 million yuan in the same period last year [1] Revenue Breakdown - For the first half of 2025, the nut category generated 2.731 billion yuan in revenue, a decline of 1.03% year-on-year; the baking category achieved 682 million yuan, an increase of 11.96%; and the comprehensive category reached 1.398 billion yuan, a significant increase of 49.70% [1] - Online sales accounted for 4.295 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.01%, with Douyin contributing 1.478 billion yuan (up 20.75%), Tmall at 882 million yuan (down 18.56%), and JD at 808 million yuan (up 1.89%); offline sales reached 1.183 billion yuan, a growth of 20.06% [1] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 25.08%, a slight decrease of 0.77 percentage points year-on-year, while the nut category's gross margin was 23.91%, down 2.64 percentage points [2] - The expense ratio increased significantly, with the second quarter of 2025 showing an expense ratio of 29.82%, up 4.53 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased promotional expenses [2] Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on high-end, quality-oriented, and differentiated products, enhancing its supply chain and increasing the proportion of self-produced nuts and snacks [3] - The company is also expanding its online operations and accelerating offline distribution to adapt to all product categories, launching a matrix of high-demand products [3] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 11.961 billion, 13.717 billion, and 15.540 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.61%, 14.67%, and 13.29% respectively; net profit projections for the same period are 412 million, 537 million, and 642 million yuan, with growth rates of 1.12%, 30.36%, and 19.47% respectively [3]