特朗普政府动用美国财政工具以提振阿根廷总统政治前景的举动，正引发市场对美元"武器化"的深层忧 虑。 最新动态是，特朗普政府宣布将向阿根廷提供金融支持，特朗普和财政部长贝森特将其描述为一种"互 换"。然而，分析人士指出，这并非传统意义上由央行执行的、旨在稳定市场的流动性互换安排，而更 像是一笔动用纳税人资金、由财政部自由裁量的贷款。 贝森特毫不讳言此举的政治动机，称其目的是为了给阿根廷总统哈维尔·米莱（Javier Milei）的政党在 近期地方选举中表现不佳后，提供一座"通往（中期）选举的桥梁"，以改善其政治命运。 这一举动直接冲击了过去美国动用此类财政工具的惯例。以往，美国财政部外汇稳定基金（ESF）的使 用通常限于应对意料之外的外部冲击或可能威胁美国金融稳定的系统性危机。此次为支持特定政治人物 而动用财政火力，让外界愈发担忧，在特朗普明确寻求让美联储服务于其政治目标的背景下，原本独立 的美联储是否还能在全球危机中，如以往一样可靠地提供美元流动性。 名为"互换"，实为"贷款" 此次对阿根廷的金融支持，其性质的界定至关重要。 据媒体的一篇分析文章指出，尽管细节仍不明确，但美国财政部提供的可能并非中央银行间的" ...

围绕美联储政治化的讨论，过去主要集中在其利率决策的独立性。但另一项可能对全球金融稳定具有更 大意义的政策工具，如今重新进入公众视野：美元互换额度（dollar swap lines）。 这是一种美元流动性的管道，美联储在2008年和2020年等危机时期向其他央行开放，以避免美元主导的 全球金融体系陷入停滞。也就是说，当全球迫切需要美元时，美联储会承担起最后贷款人的角色，提供 美元。 在危机中，受特朗普影响的美联储会向外国央行提供美元吗？可能会向某些国家提供，但并非所有国 家。 首尔在7月与华盛顿达成一份初步贸易协议，但由于其中涉及3500亿美元投资计划的外汇影响，尚未正 式签署。 韩国央行理事周二表示："我个人认为，外汇互换是一个高度政治化的问题，而不是经济问题。"就在一 天前，总统李在明告诉路透社，如果在没有保障措施（如货币互换）的情况下接受华盛顿的要求，韩国 经济可能陷入堪比1997年危机的困境。 与此同时，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）周一表示，包括货币互换额度在内的"所有选 项"都在考虑范围之内，以稳定阿根廷市场。阿根廷正再次遭遇严重的信心危机。贝森特强调，美国对 右翼总统米 ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell by Donald Trump could lead to significant economic, financial market, and international order repercussions. Legal challenges and political reactions are expected if Trump successfully appoints a new chairman [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Structure and Decision-Making - The Federal Reserve Chairman's power is not solely derived from legal authority but also from long-standing operational traditions within the Fed, particularly in reaching consensus with the Board of Governors (BoG) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [1][2]. - Historically, FOMC votes have typically concluded with unanimous support, indicating strong backing for the chairman from committee members. If the new chairman can secure sufficient voting power within the BoG, they will wield significant decision-making authority [2]. Group 2: Powers of the New Chairman - The new chairman will have the authority to set the interest rate on reserves, which is crucial for executing monetary policy. This power allows the chairman to influence both the U.S. and global economic directions [2]. - The new chairman will also appoint the Federal Reserve's General Counsel, whose role is to provide legal guidance for the Fed's actions. A General Counsel willing to push legal boundaries could expand the chairman's operational latitude [4]. - Additionally, the new chairman may influence the appointment of regional Federal Reserve bank presidents, potentially ensuring that FOMC members align with Trump's policies, especially if funding is needed for initiatives like the border wall [4]. Group 3: Challenges and Political Dynamics - A significant challenge for Trump will be mobilizing support from existing BoG members, most of whom were appointed during the Biden or Obama administrations and have long terms. Their opposition could hinder the new chairman's aggressive policy agenda [6]. - If Trump successfully dismisses Powell, he might overhaul the Fed by appointing loyal supporters, which could lead to extreme measures such as large-scale money printing or altering swap lines with specific countries, potentially impacting the international economy [6]. Group 4: Constraints on Presidential Power - The only potential check on Trump's overreach may come from Congress, which could reassert its authority over the Federal Reserve. However, given the current political climate, optimism regarding this possibility is limited [7].

Core Viewpoint - The statement from the Federal Reserve's Musalem emphasizes that the dollar swap lines provided to foreign central banks play a crucial role in enhancing financial stability in the U.S. market [1] Group 1 - The dollar swap lines are instrumental in providing liquidity to foreign central banks, which in turn supports the stability of the U.S. financial system [1] - These arrangements help mitigate potential financial disruptions that could arise from global market fluctuations [1] - The availability of these swap lines reflects the interconnectedness of global financial markets and the importance of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency [1]