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美元武器化
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瑞典谈判前夕,美国先来下马威:中美是打是和,就看下周中方表现
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-25 05:39
Group 1 - The U.S. is applying pressure on China while simultaneously seeking access to its rare earth resources, highlighting a contradictory approach in trade relations [1][3] - China's trade with ASEAN surged by 15.8% in the first half of the year, while its trade share with the U.S. fell to a ten-year low, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [1] - The U.S. has imposed a 93.5% anti-dumping tax on Chinese graphite, raising the total tax rate to 160%, which directly impacts China's dominance in the electric vehicle battery supply chain [3][5] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen threatened to impose a 100% "secondary tariff" on China if it purchases Russian oil, aiming to control China's energy imports [5] - China's response includes a strong stance against unilateral sanctions and a potential use of financial countermeasures, with the central bank governor joining the negotiation team [5] - The negotiation environment in Sweden, away from Washington, may reveal more genuine intentions from the U.S. government, despite underlying personal business interests linked to the Trump family [1][3]
人民币国际化的新机遇
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-06-30 07:11
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical and current challenges faced by currencies like the Ruble, Yen, Euro, and the potential for the Renminbi to challenge the dominance of the US dollar in the global financial system [1][2][3][4][5][6][9][10]. Group 1: Historical Context of Currency Competition - The Ruble was once considered a competitor to the dollar until the economic weaknesses of the Soviet Union became apparent [1]. - The Plaza Accord in 1985 led to a rapid appreciation of the Yen, which contributed to Japan's asset bubble, but did not result in the Yen becoming a major global reserve currency [2][3]. - The Euro has faced significant challenges since its inception, particularly during the Eurozone debt crisis, which highlighted the lack of a unified fiscal policy among member states [3][4]. Group 2: Characteristics of Global Reserve Currencies - A global reserve currency typically requires military power to ensure its dominance, as seen with historical currencies of Spain, the Netherlands, and the UK [5]. - The US has maintained its position as the global reserve currency due to its military spending and the favorable external environment post-World War II [5][6]. Group 3: Current and Future Prospects for the Renminbi - The increasing global attention on the Renminbi is partly due to the erosion of trust in the US dollar under Trump's administration, leading to a search for alternative reserve currencies [6][9]. - The Renminbi's potential as a reserve currency is hindered by its limited circulation and the lack of liquid Renminbi-denominated assets [7][9]. - For the Renminbi to challenge the dollar, it must establish a settlement network, particularly in Asia, and build trust in its stability and convertibility [10].
澳前总理顾问:美制造业“空心化”不是贸易造成的 再全球化不可逆
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-24 16:19
Group 1 - The article emphasizes that the recent U.S. tariff increases are ineffective and that the trend of re-globalization is irreversible [1][3] - It discusses the anxiety in the U.S. regarding its declining global dominance, which has led to current tensions, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations [3][4] - The article highlights that the U.S. has shifted from multilateralism to a more transactional approach, which reveals a lack of strategic coherence [3][4] Group 2 - It points out that the U.S. manufacturing sector's decline is not solely due to trade agreements but is a result of a deep transformation of American capital over the past 40 years [4][5] - The article notes that while the U.S. continues to produce high-end and advanced technology products, these sectors are capital-intensive and cannot replace the jobs lost in labor-intensive manufacturing [4][5] - It mentions that emerging economies are increasingly seeking alternatives to the U.S. dollar for trade, particularly in the context of regional trade agreements [5][6] Group 3 - The article concludes that the U.S.-China trade dispute reflects a broader historical trend towards multipolarity and diversification of global reserve currencies [5][6] - It asserts that the world is not experiencing de-globalization but is instead advancing re-globalization under new conditions and rules [5][6]
问题在于美元的武器化,而不是美国的国债
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-30 05:17
Group 1 - The core argument is that Elon Musk and DOGE have reportedly prevented the theft of $175 billion from American taxpayers, which was allegedly funneled to fraudulent companies benefiting political allies [2] - The article emphasizes the contrast between Trump's military spending and his portrayal as a peace president, suggesting that internal and external threats are manipulated for political gain [3] - It argues that as long as the dollar remains the world's reserve currency, the U.S. deficit is not a significant issue, as foreign central banks are happy to hold U.S. debt [4] Group 2 - The article highlights that the real danger to U.S. debt financing comes from sanctions, which have led to the rise of BRICS nations seeking alternatives to the dollar [5] - It warns that losing the status of the world's reserve currency could have catastrophic consequences, drawing a parallel to the decline of Britain post-World War II [6]