Group 1 - The impact of US tariffs is increasingly reflected across various global industries, with US cotton exports to China plummeting by approximately 90% year-on-year as of June this year [1] - In contrast, US cotton exports to countries like Pakistan and Turkey have increased, with exports to Vietnam nearly doubling [1] - The initial announcement of a 145% tariff on Chinese goods by Trump in April was later negotiated down to 30% in May, but uncertainty in future negotiations has led many exporters to reduce exports to China and seek alternative markets [1] Group 2 - The decline in exports to China has resulted in significant pain for the US, with the USDA reporting a reduction in US cotton export volume to 2.613 million tons, a decrease of 109,000 tons month-on-month [2] - Cotton prices are currently low due to market downturns caused by tariffs, with benchmark New York cotton futures hovering around 66 cents per pound, down slightly from 69 cents at the beginning of the year [2] - China is actively seeking to reduce its dependence on US agricultural products, significantly lowering imports of US soybeans and corn, and is looking for cotton suppliers outside the US, with Brazil expected to be the largest cotton exporter to China in 2024 [2]

（文章来源：新华财经） 美国农业部最新每周作物生长报告显示，截至2025年8月17日当周，美国棉花优良率为55%，前一周为 53%，上年同期为42%。当周棉花结铃率为73%，上一周为65%，上年同期为83%，五年均值为80%。 ...

Core Insights - The projected soybean planting area in the U.S. for 2025 is 83.4 million acres, slightly below market expectations of 83.65 million acres, and a decrease of 4% year-over-year [2][3] - The projected corn planting area for 2025 is 95.2 million acres, representing a 5% increase year-over-year, marking the third-highest level recorded since 1944 [3] - The projected wheat planting area for 2025 is 45.5 million acres, a decrease of 1% year-over-year, with winter wheat area slightly increasing from previous estimates [3] - The projected cotton planting area for 2025 is 10.1 million acres, a significant decrease of 10% year-over-year [3] Planting Area Summary - Soybean planting area is expected to decrease, with 25 out of 29 states showing reduced or stable planting [3] - Corn planting area is expected to increase, with 41 out of 48 states showing increased or stable planting [3] - Wheat planting area is expected to decrease, with a notable increase in winter wheat area compared to previous forecasts [3] - Cotton planting area is expected to decrease significantly, with dryland cotton area also showing a reduction [3] Inventory Summary - As of June 1, 2025, U.S. old crop soybean inventory totals 1.008 billion bushels, an increase of 4% year-over-year [6] - U.S. old crop corn inventory totals 4.644 billion bushels, a decrease of 7% year-over-year [6] - U.S. old crop wheat inventory totals 851 million bushels, an increase of 22% year-over-year [6]

Group 1 - The core issue is that China has not imported any U.S. crude oil for two consecutive months, resulting in the cancellation of 18 million barrels of orders, leading to over $10 billion in losses for U.S. shale oil companies [1][3] - The U.S. oil export volume has reached a five-year low due to this situation, with 40% of drilling platforms in Texas being shut down and thousands of workers losing their jobs [3][4] - The U.S. shale oil production cost has risen to $65 per barrel, while the current international oil price is only $61, indicating a loss of $4 for every barrel sold [3] Group 2 - China's refusal to purchase U.S. crude oil is supported by its strategic reserves and a significant reduction in traditional fuel demand due to the rapid development of its new energy vehicle sector [6] - Russia has expressed readiness to supply as much oil as China needs, while OPEC plans to increase oil production, further diminishing U.S. leverage in the energy market [6] - The U.S. has lost its competitive edge in various sectors, including agriculture, where imports of U.S. soybeans and other products have drastically decreased since the trade war began [9]