北京时间2025年7月1日凌晨0点，美国农业部公布种植面积报告和季度库存报告，报告公布后，美豆、美玉米、美小麦价格大幅回落。 数据如下： | TradingHer0.com | | | --- | --- | | 06-30 22:05 | 06-30 23:25 | 预计美国2025年大豆种植面积为8340万英亩，市场预期为8365.5万英亩，3月种植意向报告为8349.5万英亩。截至2025年6月1日，美国旧作大豆库存总量为 10.08亿蒲式耳，市场预期为9.8亿蒲式耳，去年同期为9.7亿蒲式耳。 预计美国2025年玉米种植面积为9520万英亩，市场预期为9535万英亩，3月种植意向报告为9532.6万英亩。截至2025年6月1日，美国旧作玉米库存总量为 46.44亿蒲式耳，市场预期为46.41亿蒲式耳，去年同期为49.93亿蒲式耳。 预计美国2025年小麦种植面积为4550万英亩，市场预期为4543.8万英亩，3月种植意向报告为4535万英亩。截至2025年6月1日，美国旧作小麦库存总量为8.51 亿蒲式耳，市场预期为8.36亿蒲式耳，去年同期为7.02亿蒲式耳。 ②预测美国2025年玉米种植面积为95 ...

Group 1 - The core issue is that China has not imported any U.S. crude oil for two consecutive months, resulting in the cancellation of 18 million barrels of orders, leading to over $10 billion in losses for U.S. shale oil companies [1][3] - The U.S. oil export volume has reached a five-year low due to this situation, with 40% of drilling platforms in Texas being shut down and thousands of workers losing their jobs [3][4] - The U.S. shale oil production cost has risen to $65 per barrel, while the current international oil price is only $61, indicating a loss of $4 for every barrel sold [3] Group 2 - China's refusal to purchase U.S. crude oil is supported by its strategic reserves and a significant reduction in traditional fuel demand due to the rapid development of its new energy vehicle sector [6] - Russia has expressed readiness to supply as much oil as China needs, while OPEC plans to increase oil production, further diminishing U.S. leverage in the energy market [6] - The U.S. has lost its competitive edge in various sectors, including agriculture, where imports of U.S. soybeans and other products have drastically decreased since the trade war began [9]