交易商表示，根据新贸易协议，印尼恐难以兑现大幅增加美国农产品进口的承诺。其中，美国豆粕进口 量需要巨幅增长，这一重担将落在一家新接手饲料采购任务的国有机构身上。 "每年采购 350 万吨的承诺需要实事求是评估，以免超出国内需求、扰乱供需平衡。" 印尼上周敲定一项贸易协议，美国将对印尼商品的关税从 32% 降至 19%，棕榈油、可可、橡胶等关键 商品免征进口关税。 作为交换，印尼承诺： 一家向印尼供应小麦与饲料谷物的国际贸易商交易员称： "印尼面粉厂已经在增加采购美国小麦。"该国 2025 年美国小麦进口量已从 75 万吨增至110 万 吨。"2026 年最多也就买 125 万~130 万吨。" 大豆与豆粕 美国是主要农产品供应国，正寻求将农产品出口市场多元化，减少对头号买家中国的依赖 —— 后者因 与美方的贸易紧张正在缩减采购。 在大豆方面，印尼为满足豆腐、丹贝（传统发酵豆制品）需求上升，目前大部分大豆已从美国采购。而 其对美方的新承诺已超过该国全年大豆总进口量。 印尼大豆进口商协会 Akindo 数据显示，印尼每年大豆消费量为270 万~290 万吨，几乎全部依赖进口。 Akindo 主席 Hidayatu ...

（来源：锦桥纺织网） 来源：锦桥纺织网 2月20日(周五)，据美国农业部(USDA)数据，截至2026年2月19日(周四)当周，美国棉花现货平均报价较 前周上扬257点。 当周，七个指定市场的基础品质棉花(色度41、叶屑4、纤维34、马克隆值35-36及43-49、强力27.0- 28.9、整齐度81.0-81.9)平均报价为61.03美分/磅，高于前周的58.46美分/磅，但低于去年同期的64.60美 分/磅。日均报价介于2月17日(周二)低点60.75美分/磅和2月19日(周四)高点61.25美分/磅之间。 截至2月19日当周，棉花现货交易量总计62666包，前周为54118包，去年同期为23999包。 2025/26年度(8月1日开始)现货总成交量为1112630包，上年度同期为733621包。 东南部市场 现货棉花交易平缓。供应量适中。需求旺盛。生产商供应量适中。当地现货均价走高。 美国东南部南部地区以晴转多云为主。日间最高气温维持在华氏70多度(约21-27℃)，夜间最低气温在华 氏40多度至50多度(约4-10℃)。阿拉巴马州中部、佛罗里达州狭长地带、佐治亚州全境本周累计降水量 介于0.25-1英 ...

Group 1 - The impact of US tariffs is increasingly reflected across various global industries, with US cotton exports to China plummeting by approximately 90% year-on-year as of June this year [1] - In contrast, US cotton exports to countries like Pakistan and Turkey have increased, with exports to Vietnam nearly doubling [1] - The initial announcement of a 145% tariff on Chinese goods by Trump in April was later negotiated down to 30% in May, but uncertainty in future negotiations has led many exporters to reduce exports to China and seek alternative markets [1] Group 2 - The decline in exports to China has resulted in significant pain for the US, with the USDA reporting a reduction in US cotton export volume to 2.613 million tons, a decrease of 109,000 tons month-on-month [2] - Cotton prices are currently low due to market downturns caused by tariffs, with benchmark New York cotton futures hovering around 66 cents per pound, down slightly from 69 cents at the beginning of the year [2] - China is actively seeking to reduce its dependence on US agricultural products, significantly lowering imports of US soybeans and corn, and is looking for cotton suppliers outside the US, with Brazil expected to be the largest cotton exporter to China in 2024 [2]

Core Insights - The latest USDA weekly crop progress report indicates that as of the week ending August 17, 2025, the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. cotton stands at 55%, an increase from 53% the previous week and significantly higher than 42% during the same period last year [1] - The cotton setting rate for the same week is reported at 73%, up from 65% the previous week but lower than the 83% recorded in the same week last year and below the five-year average of 80% [1]

Core Insights - The projected soybean planting area in the U.S. for 2025 is 83.4 million acres, slightly below market expectations of 83.65 million acres, and a decrease of 4% year-over-year [2][3] - The projected corn planting area for 2025 is 95.2 million acres, representing a 5% increase year-over-year, marking the third-highest level recorded since 1944 [3] - The projected wheat planting area for 2025 is 45.5 million acres, a decrease of 1% year-over-year, with winter wheat area slightly increasing from previous estimates [3] - The projected cotton planting area for 2025 is 10.1 million acres, a significant decrease of 10% year-over-year [3] Planting Area Summary - Soybean planting area is expected to decrease, with 25 out of 29 states showing reduced or stable planting [3] - Corn planting area is expected to increase, with 41 out of 48 states showing increased or stable planting [3] - Wheat planting area is expected to decrease, with a notable increase in winter wheat area compared to previous forecasts [3] - Cotton planting area is expected to decrease significantly, with dryland cotton area also showing a reduction [3] Inventory Summary - As of June 1, 2025, U.S. old crop soybean inventory totals 1.008 billion bushels, an increase of 4% year-over-year [6] - U.S. old crop corn inventory totals 4.644 billion bushels, a decrease of 7% year-over-year [6] - U.S. old crop wheat inventory totals 851 million bushels, an increase of 22% year-over-year [6]

Group 1 - The core issue is that China has not imported any U.S. crude oil for two consecutive months, resulting in the cancellation of 18 million barrels of orders, leading to over $10 billion in losses for U.S. shale oil companies [1][3] - The U.S. oil export volume has reached a five-year low due to this situation, with 40% of drilling platforms in Texas being shut down and thousands of workers losing their jobs [3][4] - The U.S. shale oil production cost has risen to $65 per barrel, while the current international oil price is only $61, indicating a loss of $4 for every barrel sold [3] Group 2 - China's refusal to purchase U.S. crude oil is supported by its strategic reserves and a significant reduction in traditional fuel demand due to the rapid development of its new energy vehicle sector [6] - Russia has expressed readiness to supply as much oil as China needs, while OPEC plans to increase oil production, further diminishing U.S. leverage in the energy market [6] - The U.S. has lost its competitive edge in various sectors, including agriculture, where imports of U.S. soybeans and other products have drastically decreased since the trade war began [9]