新粮销售偏快，玉米要涨价？ 弘业期货金融研究院 陈春雷 从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 （5）饲料需求旺盛，深加工需求向好。猪价自低位反弹，养殖亏损幅度收窄。据wind：截至10月31日，外购仔猪养 殖利润为-179.72元/头，亏损收窄；自繁自养利润为-89.3元/头，亏损收窄。能繁母猪产能调减偏慢，9月全国能繁母 猪存栏为4035万头，较上月减少3万头，距离调控目标较远。市场压栏及二育增加，三季度末生猪存栏为43680万头，环 比增29%，同比增23%。短期存栏难减。禽类方面，蛋价反弹，蛋鸡养殖微亏；鸡苗销量下降，老鸡淘汰增加，10月在产 蛋鸡存栏微降；但产能调整仍慢。饲料需求维持旺盛。 2025年11月7日 玉米主力2601合约企稳反弹。现货价格稳中有涨，鲅鱼圈玉米平舱价由2140元/吨涨至2165元/吨附近；蛇口港玉米 到港价稳定在2250元/吨附近。玉米基差震荡走弱，盘面小幅贴水。 淀粉主力2601合约震荡反弹。潍坊金玉米淀粉价格稳定在2800元/吨附近，基差震荡走弱。 （1）新粮销售偏快，市场去东北屯粮。随着玉米收获基本结束，市场迎来购销期；而华北、黄淮等地此前因连 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the contrasting market sentiments for U.S. soybeans and corn, which are experiencing bearish trends, while U.S. wheat is showing an independent bullish trend [1] - The USDA drought report is identified as a key factor influencing these market divergences, providing insights into the underlying trading logic [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Bearish sentiment is prevalent in U.S. soybeans and corn markets, indicating a lack of confidence among traders [1] - In contrast, U.S. wheat is exhibiting a unique market behavior, suggesting a potential opportunity for investors [1] Group 2: USDA Drought Report - The latest USDA drought report is highlighted as a critical element that explains the differing market trends for these commodities [1] - The report's findings are essential for understanding the current trading dynamics and potential future movements in the agricultural sector [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights a slight rebound in the prices of U.S. soybeans and corn, driven by positive signals from trade agreements, but emphasizes that the actual fulfillment of export orders is a critical variable for continued price increases [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - U.S. soybean and corn prices have shown a minor rebound [1] - Positive signals from trade agreements are influencing market sentiment [1] - The ability to convert trade agreements into actual export orders is essential for sustaining price growth [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent decline in soybean prices and questions whether trade agreements can provide new support for the market [1] - It highlights increased volatility in corn prices, raising concerns about whether weather issues might trigger short covering [1] Group 1: Soybean Market - Soybean prices have experienced a downturn, prompting discussions on potential support mechanisms such as trade agreements [1] - The impact of trade agreements on soybean prices remains uncertain, indicating a need for close monitoring of market developments [1] Group 2: Corn Market - Corn prices are showing heightened volatility, which could be influenced by weather-related factors [1] - There is speculation that adverse weather conditions may lead to short covering among traders, affecting overall market dynamics [1]

Core Insights - The quality rating of U.S. soybeans remains unchanged, while the quality rating of U.S. corn has seen a slight increase, raising questions about when weather-related speculation will resume and how future prices will develop [1] Group 1 - U.S. soybean quality rating is stagnant, indicating no improvement or decline in crop conditions [1] - U.S. corn quality rating has increased slightly, suggesting a potential for better yields [1] - The market is anticipating future weather conditions that could influence price movements [1]

Core Insights - The projected soybean planting area in the U.S. for 2025 is 83.4 million acres, slightly below market expectations of 83.65 million acres, and a decrease of 4% year-over-year [2][3] - The projected corn planting area for 2025 is 95.2 million acres, representing a 5% increase year-over-year, marking the third-highest level recorded since 1944 [3] - The projected wheat planting area for 2025 is 45.5 million acres, a decrease of 1% year-over-year, with winter wheat area slightly increasing from previous estimates [3] - The projected cotton planting area for 2025 is 10.1 million acres, a significant decrease of 10% year-over-year [3] Planting Area Summary - Soybean planting area is expected to decrease, with 25 out of 29 states showing reduced or stable planting [3] - Corn planting area is expected to increase, with 41 out of 48 states showing increased or stable planting [3] - Wheat planting area is expected to decrease, with a notable increase in winter wheat area compared to previous forecasts [3] - Cotton planting area is expected to decrease significantly, with dryland cotton area also showing a reduction [3] Inventory Summary - As of June 1, 2025, U.S. old crop soybean inventory totals 1.008 billion bushels, an increase of 4% year-over-year [6] - U.S. old crop corn inventory totals 4.644 billion bushels, a decrease of 7% year-over-year [6] - U.S. old crop wheat inventory totals 851 million bushels, an increase of 22% year-over-year [6]

Core Insights - The USDA report has caused significant declines in the prices of U.S. soybeans, corn, and wheat, indicating market volatility and potential supply concerns [1] - U.S. soybean planting area has been reported at levels below analyst expectations for the 11th consecutive year, suggesting ongoing challenges in meeting demand [1] - Quarterly inventory levels for U.S. soybeans have exceeded market expectations, which may impact future pricing and supply strategies [1] Group 1 - U.S. soybean planting area is reported to be lower than analyst average predictions for 11 consecutive years [1] - The USDA report has led to sharp declines in the prices of U.S. soybeans, corn, and wheat [1] - Quarterly soybean inventory levels are higher than market expectations, indicating potential supply adjustments [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global financial market is experiencing significant fluctuations due to geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand imbalances, and macro - policy adjustments. Geopolitical risks, especially the Israel - Iran conflict, are affecting the energy market, while macro - economic data and policy expectations are influencing various asset classes such as commodities, bonds, and foreign exchange [3][9][15]. - Different sectors show diverse trends. For example, the agricultural sector has mixed performance, the metal market has both rising and falling prices, and the energy market is under pressure from both supply - side disruptions and demand - side forecasts [2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Category Overnight Night - Market Trends - In the domestic futures market, some contracts like rapeseed oil, 20 - number rubber, and coking coal rose over 1%, while low - sulfur fuel oil, styrene, etc. had significant declines [2]. - Internationally, oil prices weakened, with the U.S. oil main contract down 2.06% at $71.48 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.68% at $72.98 per barrel [3]. - International precious metal futures had mixed results, with COMEX gold down 1.40% and COMEX silver up 0.04% [4]. - London base metals mostly rose, with LME zinc up 1.41% and LME lead up 0.80% [5]. - International agricultural products also showed mixed trends, with U.S. soybeans up 0.02%, U.S. corn down 2.31%, etc. [6] Important Information Macro - Information - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) increased by 4.6% as of June 16, 2025 [9]. - In May, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month, and 6.3% from January to May [9]. - In May, the housing prices of commercial residential buildings in large and medium - sized cities declined month - on - month, but the year - on - year decline narrowed [9]. - Israel attacked Iranian military headquarters on June 16, and Iran signaled a willingness to end hostilities and resume nuclear negotiations [10][11]. - The U.S. "Nimitz" aircraft carrier changed its route towards the Middle East [13]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of June 16, the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased, and there is an expectation of further de - stocking [15]. - Citi analysts expect Brent crude to trade around $70 - 80 per barrel in the near term but maintain a long - term forecast of $60 - 65 per barrel [15]. - OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, and OPEC + increased production in May [15]. - Israel's largest refinery operator shut down all facilities due to an attack [16]. Metal Futures - In May 2025, the production and sales of pickups increased year - on - year [20]. - UBS recommends buying on dips and is optimistic about global stocks, defense, and gold, expecting the gold price to reach $3,500 per ounce by the end of 2025 [21]. Black - Series Futures - From June 9 - 15, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, with different trends in Australia and Brazil [23]. - The CML Ghana manganese mine is operating normally, and the manganese ore market is in a price - consolidation state [23]. - The arrival volume of iron ore at Chinese ports decreased from June 9 - 15, 2025 [23]. - From January to May, the real estate development investment, construction area, new construction area, and completion area all declined year - on - year [24]. Agricultural Futures - Recently, the inventory of imported soybeans in domestic oil mills increased, and the crushing volume is expected to rise [28]. - Malaysia's palm oil export volume increased from June 1 - 15, while the production decreased [29][30]. - In Brazil, the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production in the central - southern region increased in the second half of May [31]. - As of June 16, the inventory of imported soybeans at Chinese ports decreased [32]. - The U.S. soybean export inspection volume decreased in the week ending June 12 [32]. - In May 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing volume and豆油 inventory changed compared to market expectations [33][35]. - In the second week of June 2025, Brazil's soybean and sugar shipments had different trends compared to last year [35]. - As of June 14, Brazil's soybean harvest rate reached 100% [36]. - As of June 15, the U.S. soybean's good - rate and sowing rate were lower than expected [36]. Financial Market Commodities - International oil prices weakened, and Western Oil expects prices to fall if the Israel - Iran conflict remains unchanged [3][41]. - International precious metal futures had mixed results, and investors are seeking safe - haven assets due to geopolitical risks [4]. - London base metals mostly rose, and their prices are affected by macro - economic expectations and demand [5]. - OPEC maintained its crude oil demand growth forecasts, and OPEC + increased production in May [41]. - Some shipping companies suspended services for Middle - East routes, raising concerns about energy exports [41]. - The price of lithium carbonate futures dropped, affecting the downstream market, and lithium enterprises are focusing on overseas markets [42]. Bonds - The domestic bond market was mostly volatile on Monday, with some bond yields rising and falling, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations [43]. - The Israeli - Iranian conflict may have a long - term impact on the 10 - year U.S. Treasury bonds, and U.S. bond yields rose [43][46]. - The Japanese central bank is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate and may slow down the pace of reducing bond purchases [46]. - European bond yields generally fell as traders increased bets on currency easing by the European Central Bank [46]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose slightly on Monday, while the central parity rate was depreciated [47]. - The RMB exchange - rate index set new lows in different currency baskets in the week ending June 13 [47]. - The South Korean won's trend will continue to be affected by the RMB [47]. - The U.S. dollar index rose slightly, and non - U.S. currencies mostly rose [48]. Upcoming Events - There are important economic data releases such as Spain's Q1 labor cost, Germany's June ZEW economic sentiment index, etc. [52]. - There are also significant events including China's central - bank open - market operations, Japan's central - bank monetary - policy press conference, and IEA's monthly oil - market report [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn: The planting progress of US corn is accelerating, and the price is oscillating at the bottom. The price below 440 cents per bushel has limited downside potential. Northeast corn prices are stable, while North Port inventory continues to decline, with stable spot prices. In North China, the supply of corn is increasing, causing spot prices to fall. As wheat is gradually entering the market with weak prices, the price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed to around 0 yuan per ton. There is still room for spot prices to rise due to a shortage of corn this year. The 07 futures contract is oscillating at the bottom, but considering the large number of warehouse receipts and weak acceptance willingness, the futures price must be at a discount. The 09 futures contract is expected to have limited upside due to potential state grain reserve sales and acceptance time factors. - Starch: The operating rate of starch factories is decreasing, but downstream demand remains weak, with reduced提货. Starch inventory has slightly decreased. Corn prices in the Northeast and North China are falling, while by - product prices have slightly increased. Spot starch prices are stable, and factory losses are decreasing. The operating rate of North China starch enterprises will continue to decline, and there is still room for spot starch prices to rise. The 09 starch futures contract is experiencing large losses, and the price difference between the 09 corn and starch futures contracts is expected to widen [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Corn Situation**: US corn planting progress is accelerating, but weather factors may still be hyped later. There is support around 420 cents per bushel. Port inventory is continuously decreasing, and downstream restocking continues, so corn spot prices will remain strong. Corn warehouse receipts are at a high level, and there is still room for the price difference between the 07 futures contract and the spot price to narrow. Considering potential state grain reserve sales and acceptance willingness, the 09 corn futures contract is over - valued, with limited upside. - **Starch Situation**: The operating rate of starch factories is decreasing, downstream demand is weak, and inventory has slightly decreased. Spot starch prices are stable, and losses are decreasing. The price difference between the 09 corn and starch futures contracts has large losses and room for profit repair, so it is expected to widen. - **Trading Strategies** - **Single - sided**: Consider buying US corn 07 below 440 cents per bushel. The 07 corn futures contract will oscillate within a narrow range. - **Arbitrage**: Buy 09 starch and sell 09 corn, entering the market when the spread is below 370. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [3][4] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **International - Planting Progress and Market Conditions**: The planting progress of US corn is accelerating, and the price is oscillating at the bottom. As of June 1st, the planting progress was 93%, which is the same as the 5 - year average. The import tariffs for US corn and sorghum are 26% and 23% respectively. The domestic import profit has expanded, with a profit of 404 yuan per ton for Brazilian corn arriving in July at Guangdong Port. As of May 29th, the weekly export inspection of US corn was 1.58 million tons, with a cumulative export of 48.58 million tons. The weekly export to China was 0 tons, with a cumulative export of 27,000 tons, accounting for 0.06%. In April, 180,000 tons of corn were imported, and from January to April, a total of 440,000 tons were imported, compared with 9.08 million tons in the same period last year. The non - commercial net short position of US corn has increased, and ethanol production has rebounded [8][9]. - **Domestic - Inventory and Consumption**: The consumption of deep - processing enterprises has slightly increased. In the 23rd week of 2025 (May 31st - June 4th), 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.2077 million tons of corn, an increase of 14,600 tons from the previous week. Deep - processing inventory has slightly increased, but it is expected to decrease next week. As of June 4th, the inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 4.654 million tons, a 2.81% increase from the previous week. The corn inventory of feed enterprises has decreased but is higher than the same period last year. As of June 5th, the average inventory of 47 large - scale feed mills was 35.35 days, a decrease of 1.19 days from the previous week and a 12.15% increase from the same period last year. North Port corn inventory and South Port grain inventory have both decreased [17][20]. - **Starch - Production and Inventory**: The operating rate of starch factories has decreased. From May 31st to June 4th, the national corn processing volume was 551,700 tons, and the starch production was 267,900 tons, a decrease of 13,200 tons from the previous week. The operating rate was 51.78%, a decrease of 2.55% from the previous week. Spot starch prices are stable, and losses have decreased. The downstream提货 volume has decreased, and inventory has slightly decreased. As of June 4th, the corn starch inventory was 1.404 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 0.57% week - on - week, 0.57% month - on - month, and a year - on - year increase of 31.6% [23]. - **Substitutes - Wheat Prices**: Wheat prices are basically stable. The factory - delivered price in North China is around 2,430 yuan per ton, and the price is weak. The price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed, North China corn prices have fallen, while Northeast corn prices have risen, narrowing the price difference between North and Northeast China. The price difference between North China corn and the 09 futures contract has also decreased [30]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Livestock and Poultry**: For pigs, from May 31st to June 4th, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 95 yuan per head, an increase of 3 yuan per head from the previous week, and the profit from purchasing piglets was 39.5 yuan per head, also an increase of 3 yuan per head from the previous week. For white - feather broilers, the breeding profit was 0.19 yuan per chicken this week, compared with 0.23 yuan per chicken last week. For laying hens, the breeding cost this week was 3.50 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit was - 0.61 yuan per catty, compared with - 0.56 yuan per catty last week [37][41]. - **Deep - processing Downstream Consumption**: The operating rate of starch sugar has changed. The operating rate of F55 high - fructose corn syrup this week was 54.9%, an increase of 0.68% from the previous week, and the operating rate of maltose syrup was 47.97%, a decrease of 0.88% from the previous week. The operating rate of paper mills has increased. The operating rate of corrugated paper this week was 64.49%, an increase of 0.55% from the previous week, and the operating rate of boxboard paper was 68.48%, an increase of 0.15% from the previous week [44]. - **Prices of Corn and Substitutes**: Information on price trends such as the FOB price at Jinzhou Port, the ex - factory price of Weifang starch, and the price differences between wheat, sorghum, and corn is presented through charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [46][48].

Core Insights - The U.S. corn crop is experiencing its worst start in six years in terms of good-to-excellent ratings, raising concerns about future yields and market dynamics [1] - The upcoming weather patterns in June are expected to influence market speculation, particularly regarding soybean prices [1] Group 1 - The current good-to-excellent rating for U.S. corn is at its lowest level in six years, indicating potential challenges for the crop yield [1] - Market participants are advised to monitor weather developments closely as they will play a crucial role in shaping the agricultural commodity prices in the coming months [1] Group 2 - The focus will shift to how soybean prices will react to the anticipated weather changes, which could lead to increased volatility in the market [1] - The period after June is expected to be critical for weather-related trading activities, impacting both corn and soybean markets [1]