弘业期货金融研究院 陈春雷 从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 玉米震荡反弹，远月乐观 2026年1月9日 玉米主力2603合约延续反弹走势。现货价格偏稳，其中鲅鱼圈玉米平舱价在2310元/吨附近；蛇口港玉米到港价在 2450元/吨附近。玉米基差震荡走弱，盘面贴水收窄。 淀粉主力2603合约震荡反弹。淀粉价格稳定，潍坊金玉米淀粉价格在2800元/吨，基差震荡走弱。 （1）新粮销售区域分化，农户惜售。现货价格平稳，农户挺价惜售，售粮进度虽仍偏快，但节奏有所放缓。据钢 联：截至1月8日，全国售粮总进度为5%，同比快2%；其中东北地区为49%，同比快6%；华北地区为45%，同比慢2%；西北 地区为65%，同比慢1%。中储粮公开竞价与采购进行，进口拍卖补充，市场看涨情绪有所减弱。 （2）港口库存不一，下游企业继续增库。据钢联数据：截至1月2日，北港玉米库存为153.8万吨，环比回落，大幅 低于去年同期；周度下海量为59.3万吨，自高位回落。广东港内贸玉米库存为47.8万吨，环比持续回升；外贸玉米库存 为29.4万吨，环比回落。下游深加工、饲企库存续增；截至1月9日，深加工企业玉米库存为35 ...

12月25日（周四）适逢美国圣诞节假期，金融市场交易时间有所调整。 外盘交易所休市安排如下：均为北京时间 | 交易所 | 市场/交易品种 | 2025年12月24日 | 2025年12月25日 | 2025年12月26日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (星期三) | (星期四) | (星期五) | | CME | 股指 | 电子盘次日凌晨2:15提前收市 | 休市 | 正常交易 | | | 利率 | 电子盘次日凌晨2:15提前收市 | 休市 | 正常交易 | | | 外汇 | 电子盘次日凌晨2:45提前收市 | 休市 | 正常交易 | | NYMEX | 美原油、美燃油、汽油 | 电子盘次日凌晨2:45提前收市 | 休市 | 正常交易 | | | 铂金、铝合 | 电子盘次日凌晨2:45提前收市 | 休市 | 正常交易 | | COMEX | 铜、金、银 | 电子盘次日凌晨2:45提前收市 | 休市 | 正常交易 | | CBOT | 美豆、美玉米、美豆粗、美豆油、美麦 | 电子盘次日凌晨2:05提前收市 | 休市 | 延迟至22:30开市 | | ICE(美国 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The article provides a detailed schedule of trading hours for various exchanges during the holiday period from December 24 to December 26, 2025, highlighting early closures and market holidays for different commodities and indices [1]. Group 1: Trading Hours Overview - CME will have early closures for stock indices and interest rates on December 24, with no trading on December 25, and normal trading resuming on December 26 [1]. - NYMEX will also close early for crude oil and other energy products on December 24, with a complete market holiday on December 25, and normal trading on December 26 [1]. - CBOT will see early closures for agricultural products on December 24, a market holiday on December 25, and delayed opening on December 26 [1]. Group 2: Specific Commodities and Indices - ICE (U.S.) will have early closures for cotton, coffee, cocoa, and orange juice on December 24, with a market holiday on December 25, and normal trading on December 26 for certain products [1]. - CBOE will close early for the VIX index on December 24, with no trading on December 25, and normal trading on December 26 [1]. - HKEX will operate half-day trading on December 24, with a market holiday on December 25, and no trading on December 26 [1].

Core Insights - The shift in global trade dynamics is a result of the changing balance of international economic power, reinforcing the resilience of the multilateral trade system and promoting more balanced global cooperation [1] Trade Dynamics - The U.S.-led trade order, characterized by high tariffs and unilateral sanctions, has shown inherent weaknesses, as evidenced by the Geneva negotiations [3] - In April 2025, U.S. tariffs on China surged to 145%, affecting key sectors like electronics and steel, prompting a global backlash and collective condemnation from WTO members [3] - China responded with reciprocal measures and deepened cooperation with ASEAN and Belt and Road Initiative countries, indicating that the U.S. can no longer unilaterally dictate trade rules [3][4] Geneva Negotiations - The Geneva negotiations marked a significant shift in global trade patterns, with a rapid agreement reached in just two days, contrasting with the 18 months taken during previous trade disputes [6] - The agreement resulted in a reduction of bilateral average tariffs from over 100% to 10%, unlocking trade potential exceeding $400 billion [6] - The negotiations highlighted China's strengthened economic resilience, with high-end manufacturing exports accounting for 45% of total exports in Q1 [6] Multilateralism and Global Cooperation - The Geneva outcomes reflect a shift in power dynamics, with the U.S. having to concede under domestic inflation pressures and retail protests [8] - The agreement integrates WTO rules and introduces third-party arbitration, reducing the risk of unilateral withdrawal by the U.S. [9] - The Belt and Road Initiative complements these developments, with over 1.3 trillion USD in investments and agreements signed with 152 countries [11] Industry Implications - The negotiations have prompted a restructuring of global supply chains, with China's electric vehicle module exports accounting for 35% and reducing U.S. costs by 8% [11] - The agreement includes provisions for technology sharing and allows Chinese companies to participate in U.S. infrastructure projects, indicating a shift from a defensive to a proactive stance by China [13] - The introduction of a joint intellectual property enforcement mechanism has led to a 13% increase in U.S. patent applications from Chinese companies [15] Future Outlook - Companies are encouraged to leverage the 262 agreements under the Belt and Road Initiative to shift investments towards digital sectors, shortening return cycles by 18% [17] - The agreement's provisions for energy procurement and mutual recognition of standards in solar energy are expected to benefit both U.S. and Chinese companies significantly [17] - The overall impact of the Geneva negotiations is expected to enhance global trade growth by 1.3% by 2025, with a 27% increase in the success rate of Chinese overseas projects [15][19]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View New grain has entered the trading phase with fast sales. There is a trend of sourcing grain from Northeast China, which may lead to a shortage of high - quality grain sources later. With strong demand, it is recommended that deep - processing enterprises buy corn on dips, feed enterprises buy high - quality moist grain on dips, and traders make purchases as needed. It is also advisable to buy far - month hedging on the futures market to avoid price increase risks [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Price and Basis - The main corn 2601 contract has stabilized and rebounded. The spot price has risen steadily. The FOB price of corn in Bayuquan has increased from 2140 yuan/ton to around 2165 yuan/ton, and the arrival price of corn at Shekou Port has remained stable at around 2250 yuan/ton. The corn basis has weakened oscillatingly, and the futures price is slightly at a discount [3]. - The main starch 2601 contract has rebounded oscillatingly. The starch price of Weifang Jinyu has remained stable at around 2800 yuan/ton, and the basis has weakened oscillatingly [3]. Supply - side Factors - New grain sales are fast, and the market is sourcing grain from Northeast China. As of November 6, the national grain sales progress was 22%, 3% faster year - on - year. The sales progress in Northeast China was 18% (3% faster y/y), 20% in North China (1% faster y/y), and 42% in Northwest China (4% faster y/y). Faster sales may lead to a tight supply after the Spring Festival [3]. - Channel inventories are rising, and downstream enterprises are starting to purchase. As of October 31, the corn inventory in North Ports was 102.1 tons and continued to rise, with a weekly shipment volume of 71.6 tons remaining high. The domestic - trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port stopped falling and rebounded to 42.5 tons, while the foreign - trade corn inventory decreased to 31.7 tons. As of November 7, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 279.5 tons, slightly down but generally rising, and the corn inventory of feed enterprises was 24.88 days, stopping the decline and starting to rise [3]. - There is a lack of grain substitution, and imports remain low. The price difference between wheat and corn has widened to over 200, eliminating the substitution advantage. Domestic corn imports remain at a low level. Although there has been a new China - US trade negotiation and mutual tax cuts, a 10% basic tariff remains, and the agreement mainly involves the import of tens of millions of tons of US soybeans, with no mention of corn. It is expected that corn imports will remain low in the short term [4]. Demand - side Factors - Feed demand is strong. Pig prices have rebounded from the low level, and the loss in pig farming has narrowed. As of October 31, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 179.72 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - fattening profit was - 89.3 yuan per head, both showing a reduction in losses. The adjustment of the productive sow capacity is slow. In September, the national productive sow inventory was 40.35 million, a decrease of 30,000 from the previous month, still far from the regulatory target. Market pig retention and secondary fattening have increased. At the end of the third quarter, the live - pig inventory was 436.8 million, a 29% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 23% increase year - on - year. In the poultry sector, egg prices have rebounded, and egg - chicken farming is slightly in the red. Chicken - chick sales have decreased, and the culling of old chickens has increased. The inventory of laying hens in October decreased slightly, but the capacity adjustment is still slow [5]. - The demand of deep - processing enterprises is positive. Starch processing enterprises have been continuously profitable, and the operating rate has increased. As of November 7, the operating rate of starch processing enterprises was 62.77% and continued to rise, and the starch inventory increased month - on - month. Alcohol processing enterprises have suffered large losses again, but the operating rate has remained high at 66.79%. The operating rate of downstream starch - sugar enterprises has stabilized, and the operating rate of paper - making enterprises has increased [5]. International Market - The US corn in the overseas market has rebounded oscillatingly. The US government shutdown continues, but the US Department of Agriculture may release a new supply - demand report. The US corn harvest is almost over, with high yield pressure. Affected by China - US trade negotiations and tax cuts, US corn has been boosted, but it is unclear whether China will import US corn [4].

Core Insights - The article discusses the contrasting market sentiments for U.S. soybeans and corn, which are experiencing bearish trends, while U.S. wheat is showing an independent bullish trend [1] - The USDA drought report is identified as a key factor influencing these market divergences, providing insights into the underlying trading logic [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Bearish sentiment is prevalent in U.S. soybeans and corn markets, indicating a lack of confidence among traders [1] - In contrast, U.S. wheat is exhibiting a unique market behavior, suggesting a potential opportunity for investors [1] Group 2: USDA Drought Report - The latest USDA drought report is highlighted as a critical element that explains the differing market trends for these commodities [1] - The report's findings are essential for understanding the current trading dynamics and potential future movements in the agricultural sector [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights a slight rebound in the prices of U.S. soybeans and corn, driven by positive signals from trade agreements, but emphasizes that the actual fulfillment of export orders is a critical variable for continued price increases [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - U.S. soybean and corn prices have shown a minor rebound [1] - Positive signals from trade agreements are influencing market sentiment [1] - The ability to convert trade agreements into actual export orders is essential for sustaining price growth [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent decline in soybean prices and questions whether trade agreements can provide new support for the market [1] - It highlights increased volatility in corn prices, raising concerns about whether weather issues might trigger short covering [1] Group 1: Soybean Market - Soybean prices have experienced a downturn, prompting discussions on potential support mechanisms such as trade agreements [1] - The impact of trade agreements on soybean prices remains uncertain, indicating a need for close monitoring of market developments [1] Group 2: Corn Market - Corn prices are showing heightened volatility, which could be influenced by weather-related factors [1] - There is speculation that adverse weather conditions may lead to short covering among traders, affecting overall market dynamics [1]

Core Insights - The quality rating of U.S. soybeans remains unchanged, while the quality rating of U.S. corn has seen a slight increase, raising questions about when weather-related speculation will resume and how future prices will develop [1] Group 1 - U.S. soybean quality rating is stagnant, indicating no improvement or decline in crop conditions [1] - U.S. corn quality rating has increased slightly, suggesting a potential for better yields [1] - The market is anticipating future weather conditions that could influence price movements [1]

Core Insights - The projected soybean planting area in the U.S. for 2025 is 83.4 million acres, slightly below market expectations of 83.65 million acres, and a decrease of 4% year-over-year [2][3] - The projected corn planting area for 2025 is 95.2 million acres, representing a 5% increase year-over-year, marking the third-highest level recorded since 1944 [3] - The projected wheat planting area for 2025 is 45.5 million acres, a decrease of 1% year-over-year, with winter wheat area slightly increasing from previous estimates [3] - The projected cotton planting area for 2025 is 10.1 million acres, a significant decrease of 10% year-over-year [3] Planting Area Summary - Soybean planting area is expected to decrease, with 25 out of 29 states showing reduced or stable planting [3] - Corn planting area is expected to increase, with 41 out of 48 states showing increased or stable planting [3] - Wheat planting area is expected to decrease, with a notable increase in winter wheat area compared to previous forecasts [3] - Cotton planting area is expected to decrease significantly, with dryland cotton area also showing a reduction [3] Inventory Summary - As of June 1, 2025, U.S. old crop soybean inventory totals 1.008 billion bushels, an increase of 4% year-over-year [6] - U.S. old crop corn inventory totals 4.644 billion bushels, a decrease of 7% year-over-year [6] - U.S. old crop wheat inventory totals 851 million bushels, an increase of 22% year-over-year [6]