Core Insights - The article discusses the contrasting market sentiments for U.S. soybeans and corn, which are experiencing bearish trends, while U.S. wheat is showing an independent bullish trend [1] - The USDA drought report is identified as a key factor influencing these market divergences, providing insights into the underlying trading logic [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Bearish sentiment is prevalent in U.S. soybeans and corn markets, indicating a lack of confidence among traders [1] - In contrast, U.S. wheat is exhibiting a unique market behavior, suggesting a potential opportunity for investors [1] Group 2: USDA Drought Report - The latest USDA drought report is highlighted as a critical element that explains the differing market trends for these commodities [1] - The report's findings are essential for understanding the current trading dynamics and potential future movements in the agricultural sector [1]

Core Insights - The projected soybean planting area in the U.S. for 2025 is 83.4 million acres, slightly below market expectations of 83.65 million acres, and a decrease of 4% year-over-year [2][3] - The projected corn planting area for 2025 is 95.2 million acres, representing a 5% increase year-over-year, marking the third-highest level recorded since 1944 [3] - The projected wheat planting area for 2025 is 45.5 million acres, a decrease of 1% year-over-year, with winter wheat area slightly increasing from previous estimates [3] - The projected cotton planting area for 2025 is 10.1 million acres, a significant decrease of 10% year-over-year [3] Planting Area Summary - Soybean planting area is expected to decrease, with 25 out of 29 states showing reduced or stable planting [3] - Corn planting area is expected to increase, with 41 out of 48 states showing increased or stable planting [3] - Wheat planting area is expected to decrease, with a notable increase in winter wheat area compared to previous forecasts [3] - Cotton planting area is expected to decrease significantly, with dryland cotton area also showing a reduction [3] Inventory Summary - As of June 1, 2025, U.S. old crop soybean inventory totals 1.008 billion bushels, an increase of 4% year-over-year [6] - U.S. old crop corn inventory totals 4.644 billion bushels, a decrease of 7% year-over-year [6] - U.S. old crop wheat inventory totals 851 million bushels, an increase of 22% year-over-year [6]

Core Insights - The USDA report has caused significant declines in the prices of U.S. soybeans, corn, and wheat, indicating market volatility and potential supply concerns [1] - U.S. soybean planting area has been reported at levels below analyst expectations for the 11th consecutive year, suggesting ongoing challenges in meeting demand [1] - Quarterly inventory levels for U.S. soybeans have exceeded market expectations, which may impact future pricing and supply strategies [1] Group 1 - U.S. soybean planting area is reported to be lower than analyst average predictions for 11 consecutive years [1] - The USDA report has led to sharp declines in the prices of U.S. soybeans, corn, and wheat [1] - Quarterly soybean inventory levels are higher than market expectations, indicating potential supply adjustments [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global financial market is experiencing significant fluctuations due to geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand imbalances, and macro - policy adjustments. Geopolitical risks, especially the Israel - Iran conflict, are affecting the energy market, while macro - economic data and policy expectations are influencing various asset classes such as commodities, bonds, and foreign exchange [3][9][15]. - Different sectors show diverse trends. For example, the agricultural sector has mixed performance, the metal market has both rising and falling prices, and the energy market is under pressure from both supply - side disruptions and demand - side forecasts [2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Category Overnight Night - Market Trends - In the domestic futures market, some contracts like rapeseed oil, 20 - number rubber, and coking coal rose over 1%, while low - sulfur fuel oil, styrene, etc. had significant declines [2]. - Internationally, oil prices weakened, with the U.S. oil main contract down 2.06% at $71.48 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.68% at $72.98 per barrel [3]. - International precious metal futures had mixed results, with COMEX gold down 1.40% and COMEX silver up 0.04% [4]. - London base metals mostly rose, with LME zinc up 1.41% and LME lead up 0.80% [5]. - International agricultural products also showed mixed trends, with U.S. soybeans up 0.02%, U.S. corn down 2.31%, etc. [6] Important Information Macro - Information - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) increased by 4.6% as of June 16, 2025 [9]. - In May, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month, and 6.3% from January to May [9]. - In May, the housing prices of commercial residential buildings in large and medium - sized cities declined month - on - month, but the year - on - year decline narrowed [9]. - Israel attacked Iranian military headquarters on June 16, and Iran signaled a willingness to end hostilities and resume nuclear negotiations [10][11]. - The U.S. "Nimitz" aircraft carrier changed its route towards the Middle East [13]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of June 16, the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased, and there is an expectation of further de - stocking [15]. - Citi analysts expect Brent crude to trade around $70 - 80 per barrel in the near term but maintain a long - term forecast of $60 - 65 per barrel [15]. - OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, and OPEC + increased production in May [15]. - Israel's largest refinery operator shut down all facilities due to an attack [16]. Metal Futures - In May 2025, the production and sales of pickups increased year - on - year [20]. - UBS recommends buying on dips and is optimistic about global stocks, defense, and gold, expecting the gold price to reach $3,500 per ounce by the end of 2025 [21]. Black - Series Futures - From June 9 - 15, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, with different trends in Australia and Brazil [23]. - The CML Ghana manganese mine is operating normally, and the manganese ore market is in a price - consolidation state [23]. - The arrival volume of iron ore at Chinese ports decreased from June 9 - 15, 2025 [23]. - From January to May, the real estate development investment, construction area, new construction area, and completion area all declined year - on - year [24]. Agricultural Futures - Recently, the inventory of imported soybeans in domestic oil mills increased, and the crushing volume is expected to rise [28]. - Malaysia's palm oil export volume increased from June 1 - 15, while the production decreased [29][30]. - In Brazil, the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production in the central - southern region increased in the second half of May [31]. - As of June 16, the inventory of imported soybeans at Chinese ports decreased [32]. - The U.S. soybean export inspection volume decreased in the week ending June 12 [32]. - In May 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing volume and豆油 inventory changed compared to market expectations [33][35]. - In the second week of June 2025, Brazil's soybean and sugar shipments had different trends compared to last year [35]. - As of June 14, Brazil's soybean harvest rate reached 100% [36]. - As of June 15, the U.S. soybean's good - rate and sowing rate were lower than expected [36]. Financial Market Commodities - International oil prices weakened, and Western Oil expects prices to fall if the Israel - Iran conflict remains unchanged [3][41]. - International precious metal futures had mixed results, and investors are seeking safe - haven assets due to geopolitical risks [4]. - London base metals mostly rose, and their prices are affected by macro - economic expectations and demand [5]. - OPEC maintained its crude oil demand growth forecasts, and OPEC + increased production in May [41]. - Some shipping companies suspended services for Middle - East routes, raising concerns about energy exports [41]. - The price of lithium carbonate futures dropped, affecting the downstream market, and lithium enterprises are focusing on overseas markets [42]. Bonds - The domestic bond market was mostly volatile on Monday, with some bond yields rising and falling, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations [43]. - The Israeli - Iranian conflict may have a long - term impact on the 10 - year U.S. Treasury bonds, and U.S. bond yields rose [43][46]. - The Japanese central bank is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate and may slow down the pace of reducing bond purchases [46]. - European bond yields generally fell as traders increased bets on currency easing by the European Central Bank [46]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose slightly on Monday, while the central parity rate was depreciated [47]. - The RMB exchange - rate index set new lows in different currency baskets in the week ending June 13 [47]. - The South Korean won's trend will continue to be affected by the RMB [47]. - The U.S. dollar index rose slightly, and non - U.S. currencies mostly rose [48]. Upcoming Events - There are important economic data releases such as Spain's Q1 labor cost, Germany's June ZEW economic sentiment index, etc. [52]. - There are also significant events including China's central - bank open - market operations, Japan's central - bank monetary - policy press conference, and IEA's monthly oil - market report [54].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the overnight market trends, important macro - economic news, and developments in various financial and commodity sectors, including futures, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It also provides upcoming economic data releases and events. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic futures主力合约涨跌互现，烧碱、纸浆等涨超0.4%，SC原油、氧化铝等跌超1% [2] - International precious metal futures普遍收跌，COMEX黄金期货跌0.56%，COMEX白银期货跌1.39% [3] - International oil prices走弱，美油主力合约收跌1.23%，布伦特原油主力合约跌1.29% [4] - London basic metals收盘多数下跌，LME期锡、期镍、期铜均有不同程度跌幅 [5] - International agricultural product futures涨跌不一，美大豆、美玉米等有涨有跌 [6] Important Information Macro - Information - China's central bank will conduct 500 billion yuan of MLF operations on May 23, 2025 [9] - CFFEX is promoting the dual functions of financial futures [9] - SHFE will improve its product system and promote the R & D and listing of new varieties [9] - US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 17 were 227,000, a four - week low [10] - Iran vows a "devastating response" to any Israeli attack [11] - Trump's tax reform bill passed the House and is sent to the Senate, and the Senate passed a bill to end California's ban on fuel - powered vehicles [12] - Fed Governor Waller expects a rate cut in the second half of 2025 if tariffs decline [13] Energy and Chemical Futures - OPEC + is discussing a possible large - scale production increase in July [16] - China's urea production increased, and domestic soda ash inventory decreased [16] - Singapore's fuel oil, light distillate, and middle distillate inventories all rose [16] - SHFE adjusted the trading fees of natural rubber futures RU2509 contract [17] - US natural gas inventory increased, with a year - on - year decrease of 12.3% [17] - The US was not persuaded to lower the oil price cap at the G7 meeting [18] Metal Futures - Freeport Indonesia's Manyar smelter will resume production in June and reach full capacity in December [20] - CBA expects gold prices to reach $3,750 per ounce in Q4 due to rising safe - haven demand and a weakening dollar [22] - SHFE adjusted the trading fees of alumina futures AO2509 contract [22] - The global lead market had a supply shortage in March 2025 [22] Black - Series Futures - Rebar production increased, factory inventory rose, social inventory decreased, and apparent demand declined [24] - China's cumulative power generation installed capacity increased by 15.9% year - on - year as of the end of April [24] - Steel social inventory in 21 cities decreased in mid - May, with a narrowing decline [24] - Global crude steel production in April 2025 decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [25] - The average profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants varied by region [26] Agricultural Product Futures - Malaysia's palm oil production and exports are expected to increase in May [28] - Nigeria's palm oil prices may rise due to Indonesia's export tax increase [28] - Market rumors suggest the US government may grant small refinery exemptions, reducing biodiesel production and oil consumption [29] - IGC maintains the 2025/26 global soybean production forecast, with increased trade and consumption [29] - US soybean export net sales data for different periods [30] - Canada's rapeseed exports increased, and commercial inventory was reported [30] - The proportion of US soybean and corn planting areas affected by drought [30] - US cotton ON - call unpriced orders data [31] - Argentina's soybean sales accelerated in the first two weeks of May [31] Financial Market Finance - The CSRC will optimize the listing environment for technology companies and implement a more flexible IPO adjustment mechanism [33] - A - shares closed lower on Thursday, with some sectors rising and others falling [35] - Hong Kong stocks declined, but two new stocks had a strong performance in the dark - market trading [35] - CATL's H - shares will be included in MSCI indices [36] - Lenovo Group's Q4 revenue and profit increased [36] Industry - China's cumulative power generation installed capacity increased, with significant growth in solar and wind power [37] - The Cyberspace Administration of China will launch a special campaign to rectify online "black - mouth" against enterprises [37] - The world's first "Intelligent Grading of Humanoid Robots" standard was released [39] - Shanghai introduced measures to promote the high - quality development of the technology service industry [39] - A group standard for all - solid - state batteries was released [39] - TOP100 real - estate enterprises' land reserves decreased in 2024 [39] - China's narrow - sense passenger car retail sales are expected to increase in May [40] - The "JD Takeaway" platform was interviewed by the market supervision department [40] Overseas - Fed Governor Waller suggests a possible rate cut in the second half of 2025 if tariffs stabilize [41] - US manufacturing and service PMI data in May [43] - Harvard University's international student enrollment qualification was revoked [43] - US existing - home sales decreased in April, with a rising median price [43] - US initial jobless claims decreased to a four - week low [43] - Eurozone's May PMI data, with a decline in the composite PMI [44] - European Central Bank's meeting minutes and market expectations for a rate cut [44] - Japan's core machinery orders increased significantly in March [44] - Thailand's court ruled that Yingluck Shinawatra should pay compensation [46] International Stocks - US stocks closed mixed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recording three - day losses [47] - European stocks closed lower due to concerns about bond yields and tax reform [47] - Berkshire Hathaway's Greg Abel met with Japanese trading company executives [48] - Kraken plans to allow non - US customers to trade stocks in token form [48] Commodity - International precious metal futures declined, affected by the US fiscal deficit, inflation, and the dollar [50] - International oil prices weakened, pressured by OPEC + production increase expectations and US inventory [50] - London basic metals mostly fell, with supply - chain changes [50] - OPEC + is discussing a production increase in July [51] - SHFE adjusted the trading fees of alumina and natural rubber futures contracts [51] Bond - China's bond market continued to fluctuate, with the central bank conducting reverse - repurchase operations [52] - A member of the Bank of Japan's council believes no intervention in the bond market is necessary [54] - US Treasury yields declined across the board [54] - European bond yields showed mixed trends [54] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the central parity rate was adjusted up [55] - The RMB ranked fifth in global payment currency in April [55] - Japan's foreign - exchange official stated that exchange rates should be determined by the market [55] - The US dollar index rose, and most non - US currencies fell [57] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Economic data release schedule including UK consumer confidence, Japan's CPI, etc. [59] - Event schedule including Trump's dinner invitation, central bank operations, and corporate earnings reports [61]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/05/20 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 周一夜盘收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌互现，沥青、菜油、棕榈油涨近 1%。跌幅方面，对二甲苯（PX）、PTA 跌超 1%，瓶片、乙二醇、短纤、菜粕跌 近 1%。 2.国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.41%报 3232.20 美元/盎 司，COMEX 白银期货涨 0.44%报 32.50 美元/盎司。 3. 国际油价走强，美油主力合约收涨 0.29%，报 62.15 美元/桶；布伦特原 油主力合约涨 0.17%，报 65.52 美元/桶。 4. 伦敦基本金属收盘涨跌不一，LME 期锡涨 0.98%报 32960.00 美元/吨， LME 期铜涨 0.81%报 9516.00 美元/吨。 5. 国际农产品期货多数上涨，美大豆涨 0.12%，美玉米涨 0.79%，美豆油 涨 1.12%，美豆粕跌 0.24%，美小麦涨 0.86%。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 总机：010-8535 66 ...