Core Viewpoint - The company West Fen Liquor aims to achieve a revenue target of 20 billion in three years, but faces significant challenges in reaching this goal due to past performance and market conditions [2][20]. Group 1: Revenue Goals and Historical Context - At the 2024 global dealer conference, West Fen Liquor's chairman Zhang Zheng reiterated the goal of "breaking through 20 billion" in revenue [2]. - In 2021, the company had previously set a target of achieving a minimum of 20 billion by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, but has not disclosed its revenue for the previous year [2][6]. - The company only recently surpassed the 10 billion revenue mark in 2023, making the goal of doubling revenue seem unlikely [2][20]. Group 2: Market Challenges and Product Confusion - The liquor industry is currently experiencing a contraction, with issues such as price cuts and high inventory levels affecting all players, including West Fen Liquor [7]. - There is significant confusion among consumers regarding the various product lines of West Fen Liquor, with many unable to distinguish between core and developed products [7][8]. - The reliance on a buyout model has led to a bloated product matrix, causing internal competition among similarly priced products [8][11]. Group 3: Pricing and Market Position - The flagship product, Hong Xifeng, is positioned in the 1,000 yuan price range, but market feedback indicates that it often sells below this price, leading to a serious price inversion [12][16]. - West Fen Liquor struggles with brand recognition outside its home province, making it less competitive against other well-known brands [16][18]. - The company has attempted to expand its market presence by adding 100,000 new retail outlets and establishing experience stores in major cities, but high-end and nationwide strategies require more time to develop [16][18]. Group 4: Marketing and Brand Image Issues - Recent marketing missteps, such as the "Sima Nan Head" incident, have damaged West Fen Liquor's brand image and highlighted its weak market control [18]. - The company has faced backlash from consumers due to poor marketing decisions, which have led to a decline in brand perception [18][21]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Growth Challenges - To achieve the 20 billion revenue target by 2028, West Fen Liquor would need to maintain an average annual growth rate of 14.87%, which is challenging given the industry's projected growth of only 5% [20][22]. - The company must address product confusion and restore its brand authority to avoid being trapped in a situation where it is recognized as a famous liquor but operates primarily in regional markets [20][22].

文 | 酒业内参 张奥 作为游离在主流外的老四大名酒，西凤酒又开始"画大饼"了？ 此前召开的西凤酒 2024 年度全球经销商大会上，西凤集团党委书记、董事长、股份公司 董事长张正明确了"三年突破 200 亿"的发展目标。 但值得注意的是，早在 2021 年末，西凤酒就曾放出过"要在十四五末实现保底 200 亿"的 豪言。如今已是规划的最后一年，虽然西凤酒尚未公布去年营收规模，但按照 2023 年才 刚刚迈过百亿大关的速度看，想翻倍可能性很小。 同时，经销商引发的"黄渤诉讼事件""司马南夹头酒风波"等，也让西凤酒多次陷入舆论困 境。 此时，张正再次喊起了口号，但愿意相信的经销商与投资者可能已经寥寥无几。 6 年来首次未公布营收， 董事长在藏什么？ 同样是"老四大名酒"，茅台、泸州老窖、汾酒早已迈入高端白酒头部，只剩西凤酒带着名 酒基因跌跌撞撞。 去年同期，西凤酒官宣 2023 年实现销售收入 103.4 亿元，同比增长 23% 。作为跨 过"百亿大关"后的第二年，西凤酒的业绩表现成为了行业关注的焦点。 然而，张正却并未透露具体销售数据，" 2024 年公司营收稳中有进，达到了预期目 标。"这也是他上任六年来第一 ...