Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The urea market is facing continuous inventory accumulation pressure. Although the supply has decreased due to an increase in maintenance devices, the support from compound fertilizer and other industrial demands has weakened. After a short - term improvement in production and sales, there are still pressures. It is expected that the urea price will fluctuate at the bottom, with a reference range of 1550 - 1650 yuan/ton [5]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - Urea's weekly price fluctuated sideways, rebounding after hitting a new low. On October 17, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1602 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton from last week, a decline of 0.31%. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1541 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan/ton from last week, a rise of 1.72% [5][8]. - The main - contract basis of urea strengthened. On October 17, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 61 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (- 83) - (- 59) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of urea weakened. On October 17, the 1 - 5 spread was - 70 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of (- 70) - (- 68) yuan/ton [5][10]. Fundamental Changes - **Supply**: The operating load rate of Chinese urea plants was 80.23%, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points from last week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 71.33%, a decrease of 1.21 percentage points from last week, and the daily average urea output was 18.86 tons. Next week, maintenance devices in Anhui, Shaanxi and other places will gradually resume production, and the domestic urea spot supply will still be relatively sufficient [5][12]. - **Cost**: The demand - side support for anthracite lump coal was weaker, and the pit - mouth lump coal of coal enterprises in some areas was under significant pressure, with coal prices falling. As of October 16, the含税 price of washed small anthracite blocks with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 820 - 900 yuan/ton, with the price center dropping 35 yuan/ton compared to the closing price on September 30 [5][16]. - **Demand**: - Agricultural demand: Nationwide autumn harvest and sowing have begun. Winter wheat has been sown and emerged in most parts of Xinjiang, eastern Qinghai, eastern Gansu, southern Ningxia, Guanzhong in Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei, Tianjin and other places. In Gansu, nearly 80% of winter wheat has been sown, and in Shaanxi, over 10%. Rape has been sown in Zhejiang, Hubei and other places. In Chongqing, over 40% of rape has been sown, and in Hubei, over 30%. The average pre - sales of major urea production enterprises was 3.6 days, and the weekly production - sales rate of urea enterprises was 94.3%. With the progress of autumn harvest and sowing, agricultural demand moderately increased, and production and sales improved marginally [5][18][21]. - Industrial demand: The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 24.18%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points from last week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 70.91 tons, a decrease of 2.59 tons from last week, and the domestic compound fertilizer inventory pressure was slightly relieved, entering a destocking trend [5][21]. - **Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory was 142.1 tons, an increase of 8.3 tons from last week, showing continuous inventory accumulation. Urea port inventory was 74 tons, an increase of 2 tons from last week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 6294, totaling 12.588 tons [5][28].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The urea market shows a situation of both supply and demand reduction. The report suggests paying attention to the positive spread trading opportunities. The short - term daily output is lower than the same period last year due to increased maintenance devices and a decline in the start - up rate. Agricultural demand is scattered, the compound fertilizer supply - demand pattern has slightly improved but is still in the seasonal inventory accumulation cycle, and other industrial demands are stable. The production and sales of urea are weak, with enterprise inventories continuously increasing and port inventories slightly decreasing. Temporarily focus on the support level of 1630 - 1650 for the 01 contract, and look for positive spread opportunities after the 1 - 5 spread of urea further weakens [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - The urea market's production and sales weakened, and the weekly price continued to run weakly. On September 12, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1663 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton or 2.39% from the previous week. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1645 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan/ton or 3.18% from the previous week [4][7]. - The urea main - contract basis fluctuated within a narrow range. On September 12, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 18 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (- 22) - (- 12) yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread of urea weakened. On September 12, the 1 - 5 spread was - 55 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of (- 55) - (- 40) yuan/ton [4][11]. Fundamental Changes - **Supply**: The operating load rate of Chinese urea enterprises was 77.46%, a decrease of 1.67 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 71.33%, an increase of 0.18 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average output of urea was 18.56 tons. It is expected that the daily output will run between 18 - 19 tons next week [4][14]. - **Cost**: The price of anthracite lump coal remained firm. As of September 11, the含税 price of washed small anthracite blocks with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 840 - 900 yuan/ton, and the含税 price of washed anthracite blocks with S1 - 1.5 in Yangquan, Shanxi was 760 - 800 yuan/ton, both remaining stable compared with the previous week's closing price [4][18]. - **Demand** - **Agricultural demand**: Agricultural demand across the country is currently scattered. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 37.82%, an increase of 4.74 percentage points from the previous week, turning from a decline to an increase. The compound fertilizer inventory was 82.62 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons from the previous week. The domestic compound fertilizer finished - product pick - up was poor, and the slow fertilizer - preparation progress restricted the start - up, waiting for a certain relief of the compound fertilizer inventory pressure [4][25]. - **Industrial demand**: The operating load rate of melamine enterprises was 53.04%, a decrease of 2.07 percentage points from the previous week, with a weekly output of 2.614 tons. It is expected that the average operating load rate of domestic melamine enterprises will increase next week. The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores increased, and the demand support in the panel market improved slightly [28][29]. - **Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventories were 114.6 tons, an increase of 5.2 tons from the previous week, showing continuous inventory accumulation. Urea port inventories were 73.5 tons, a decrease of 6.2 tons from the previous week, with a slight reduction in port inventories. There were 8847 registered urea warehouse receipts, totaling 17.694 tons [4][32]. Key Points of Concern The report suggests focusing on the start - up situation of compound fertilizer, the reduction and maintenance of urea production devices, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [4].