Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, urea prices continued to oscillate and search for a bottom, with frequent rapid rebounds. Supply remained high, and production increased year - on - year. In 2026, supply is expected to grow further, with a potential 3.5% increase in capacity and a 3.5% increase in production, or 2 - 2.5% if prices fall. Agricultural demand is expected to rise by 2.67%. Domestic industrial demand may remain weak, with a 2% decline in melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin demand. Urea export policies may continue, but the stimulus from exports is weakening. Without unexpected export demand, urea prices will slowly decline until production shows negative feedback [3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Market Review - In 2025, urea prices oscillated downward. Key factors included continuous domestic capacity expansion (355 million tons in 2025, 317 million tons expected in 2026, and 600 million tons from 2027 - 2028), decent agricultural demand during peak seasons, changes in export policies, and stable industrial demand [12][14]. - Quarterly events included winter gas restrictions and rising international natural gas prices in Q3, which pushed up international nitrogen fertilizer prices. There were also factors such as spring plowing demand, changes in compound fertilizer export policies, and the start of summer demand [10]. Capacity Trends - China's urea is in a capacity expansion cycle. In 2025, net new capacity was 4.18 million tons, and 2.94 million tons are expected in 2026. Future plans involve adding about 14 million tons and removing 3 - 5 million tons in the next three years, resulting in a net increase of 9 - 11 million tons [19][24]. - Some fixed - bed processes using anthracite are being phased out, with about 13.61 million tons of such capacity (18% of the total) likely to be eliminated in the next five years [24]. Production and Profitability - In 2025, gas - based urea production was unprofitable, but production was not significantly affected due to planned gas supply and export quota support. However, long - term low prices may lead to reduced production [28]. - In 2026, urea production is expected to increase by 3.6%. But due to limited room for increasing the production rate and low prices for gas - based production, the increase in production may be less than the increase in capacity. If prices fall, output growth may drop to 2.3% [34][39]. Nitrogen Fertilizer Market - Production of nitrogen - containing fertilizers has grown rapidly in recent years. In 2025, synthetic ammonia production is expected to be 34.5% higher than in 2022. Urea remains cost - effective compared to other nitrogen fertilizers, but the substitution demand has decreased [49][53]. - Ammonium chloride and ammonium sulfate markets are moving towards a more balanced supply, with supply increasing and the substitution demand for urea limited. The substitution of ammonium sulfate for urea exports may weaken [54][60][62]. - Overall nitrogen fertilizer supply has increased significantly. In 2025, the total nitrogen - containing output of nitrogen fertilizers is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 10%. However, international nitrogen fertilizer prices have weakened, and future export momentum may decline [64][66]. Demand Trends - Agricultural demand is expected to continue to grow moderately. From 2020 - 2024, grain sowing area and production increased. Policies aim to increase grain production by 100 billion jin by 2030. In 2026, agricultural and other demand is expected to rise by 2.7%, and compound fertilizer demand may increase by 1.7% [70][82][85]. - Industrial demand is related to the real - estate market and furniture exports. With weak real - estate demand and falling furniture export prices, the demand for melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin is expected to decline by 2% in 2026 [88][97]. Export Situation - Export policies are crucial. Historically, policies have changed frequently. In 2025, export policies were relaxed through quotas, and exports may reach 4.76 million tons, with a possible increase to 5 million tons in 2026. India's import demand may decrease, while non - China and India regions are expected to add 4 million tons of new capacity in 2026. Export profit remains high, and the quota system is expected to continue in 2026 [102][111][113][116]. Balance Sheet - In 2026, domestic new capacity will continue to be put into operation. Without considering production cuts due to losses, urea production is expected to increase by about 2.54 million tons (3.7%). Demand is expected to see a 2.7% increase in agricultural and other sectors, a 1.7% increase in compound fertilizers, a 2% decrease in industrial demand, and stable or increasing exports. Overall, supply may slightly exceed demand, but there is still a possibility of short - term strength due to export policies [120][121].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2026, the central price of urea may rise. After the peak agricultural demand season, the central price is expected to gradually decline in the second half of the year, with a volatile pattern throughout the year. The market may mainly trade on the expectations and discrepancies of urea's peak agricultural demand, export, and storage drives. Traders are advised to focus on band opportunities. The export - related policy adjustment in 2026 remains a key factor in adjusting the domestic fundamentals. The expected operating range of urea prices in 2026 is 1,550 - 1,950 yuan/ton. Strategies suggest focusing on the 5 - 9 positive spread at low prices, and the 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 reverse spreads at high prices [1][86]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 H2 Urea Trend Review - **Q3**: With sufficient production profit, the overall operating rate and output of the urea industry remained high. Agricultural demand weakened, but new export quotas and the "anti - involution" macro - logic supported the price, resulting in wide - range price fluctuations [5]. - **Q4**: The strong expectations for September were falsified. Supply remained high, and export and domestic demand could not match the supply pressure, leading to a downward price trend. There was a phased rebound in November due to mid - stream reserve replenishment and increased export quotas [9]. 3.2 Demand Side: Urea Demand in 2026 is Expected to Increase - **Agricultural End**: The growth of urea agricultural demand in 2026 may continue, but the growth rate is expected to decline slightly. The demand increment is mainly concentrated from February to May, and corn is the main source of actual demand growth [13][15][17]. - **Industrial End**: A cautious and pessimistic attitude is taken towards the domestic industrial demand for urea in 2026. The demand from melamine, urea - formaldehyde resin, and thermal power denitrification is expected to have no significant increase [13]. - **Export End**: Urea exports in 2026 may continue to grow, mainly concentrated in the third and fourth quarters [14][48]. 3.3 Supply Side: Urea Supply in 2026 is Expected to Increase - **Output**: The urea industry is expected to add 6.51 million tons of new production capacity in 2026, with an annual capacity growth rate of 7.9%. The theoretical capacity will increase from 82.07 million tons to 88.58 million tons, and the output is expected to increase [51][53]. - **Inventory**: In 2026, the upstream enterprise inventory and mid - stream social inventory of urea are expected to show a pattern of destocking in the first half of the year and stockpiling in the second half, with a slightly higher annual average inventory center [51]. - **Profit**: The production profit of urea in 2026 may fluctuate widely. The profit may rebound in the first half depending on the intensity of agricultural demand, and the profit center may decline in the second half, mainly depending on export policies [51].

长江期货尿素周报： 供需面偏稳 关注短期消息影响 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 2025-12-15 【产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员：张 英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 1 市场变化：价格：尿素周度价格下行明显，12月12日尿素2601合约收盘价1625元/吨，较上周下调48元/吨，期间最 高1670元/吨，最低1624元/吨。尿素现货河南市场日均价1670元/吨，较上周下调22元/吨，跌幅1.3%。基差：尿素 现货价格偏稳，期货价格下行，主力基差连续走强，12月12日河南市场主力基差45元/吨，周度基差运行区间28— 45元/吨。价差：尿素1-5价差窄幅震荡，12月12日1-5价差-58元/吨，周度运行区间（-68）—（-58）元/吨。 2 基本面变化：供应端中国尿素开工负荷率83.95%，较上周提升1.19个百分点，其中气头企业开工负荷率63.6%，较 上周降低4.54个百分点，尿素日均产量19.79万吨。供应方面，下周山东检修装置或将复产，日产量仍在20万吨附近。 成本端无烟末煤市场延续下行，块煤价格以稳为主，截至 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The urea market is facing continuous inventory accumulation pressure. Although the supply has decreased due to an increase in maintenance devices, the support from compound fertilizer and other industrial demands has weakened. After a short - term improvement in production and sales, there are still pressures. It is expected that the urea price will fluctuate at the bottom, with a reference range of 1550 - 1650 yuan/ton [5]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - Urea's weekly price fluctuated sideways, rebounding after hitting a new low. On October 17, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1602 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton from last week, a decline of 0.31%. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1541 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan/ton from last week, a rise of 1.72% [5][8]. - The main - contract basis of urea strengthened. On October 17, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 61 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (- 83) - (- 59) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of urea weakened. On October 17, the 1 - 5 spread was - 70 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of (- 70) - (- 68) yuan/ton [5][10]. Fundamental Changes - **Supply**: The operating load rate of Chinese urea plants was 80.23%, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points from last week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 71.33%, a decrease of 1.21 percentage points from last week, and the daily average urea output was 18.86 tons. Next week, maintenance devices in Anhui, Shaanxi and other places will gradually resume production, and the domestic urea spot supply will still be relatively sufficient [5][12]. - **Cost**: The demand - side support for anthracite lump coal was weaker, and the pit - mouth lump coal of coal enterprises in some areas was under significant pressure, with coal prices falling. As of October 16, the含税 price of washed small anthracite blocks with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 820 - 900 yuan/ton, with the price center dropping 35 yuan/ton compared to the closing price on September 30 [5][16]. - **Demand**: - Agricultural demand: Nationwide autumn harvest and sowing have begun. Winter wheat has been sown and emerged in most parts of Xinjiang, eastern Qinghai, eastern Gansu, southern Ningxia, Guanzhong in Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei, Tianjin and other places. In Gansu, nearly 80% of winter wheat has been sown, and in Shaanxi, over 10%. Rape has been sown in Zhejiang, Hubei and other places. In Chongqing, over 40% of rape has been sown, and in Hubei, over 30%. The average pre - sales of major urea production enterprises was 3.6 days, and the weekly production - sales rate of urea enterprises was 94.3%. With the progress of autumn harvest and sowing, agricultural demand moderately increased, and production and sales improved marginally [5][18][21]. - Industrial demand: The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 24.18%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points from last week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 70.91 tons, a decrease of 2.59 tons from last week, and the domestic compound fertilizer inventory pressure was slightly relieved, entering a destocking trend [5][21]. - **Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory was 142.1 tons, an increase of 8.3 tons from last week, showing continuous inventory accumulation. Urea port inventory was 74 tons, an increase of 2 tons from last week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 6294, totaling 12.588 tons [5][28].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The urea market shows a situation of both supply and demand reduction. The report suggests paying attention to the positive spread trading opportunities. The short - term daily output is lower than the same period last year due to increased maintenance devices and a decline in the start - up rate. Agricultural demand is scattered, the compound fertilizer supply - demand pattern has slightly improved but is still in the seasonal inventory accumulation cycle, and other industrial demands are stable. The production and sales of urea are weak, with enterprise inventories continuously increasing and port inventories slightly decreasing. Temporarily focus on the support level of 1630 - 1650 for the 01 contract, and look for positive spread opportunities after the 1 - 5 spread of urea further weakens [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - The urea market's production and sales weakened, and the weekly price continued to run weakly. On September 12, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1663 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton or 2.39% from the previous week. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1645 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan/ton or 3.18% from the previous week [4][7]. - The urea main - contract basis fluctuated within a narrow range. On September 12, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 18 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (- 22) - (- 12) yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread of urea weakened. On September 12, the 1 - 5 spread was - 55 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of (- 55) - (- 40) yuan/ton [4][11]. Fundamental Changes - **Supply**: The operating load rate of Chinese urea enterprises was 77.46%, a decrease of 1.67 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 71.33%, an increase of 0.18 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average output of urea was 18.56 tons. It is expected that the daily output will run between 18 - 19 tons next week [4][14]. - **Cost**: The price of anthracite lump coal remained firm. As of September 11, the含税 price of washed small anthracite blocks with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 840 - 900 yuan/ton, and the含税 price of washed anthracite blocks with S1 - 1.5 in Yangquan, Shanxi was 760 - 800 yuan/ton, both remaining stable compared with the previous week's closing price [4][18]. - **Demand** - **Agricultural demand**: Agricultural demand across the country is currently scattered. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 37.82%, an increase of 4.74 percentage points from the previous week, turning from a decline to an increase. The compound fertilizer inventory was 82.62 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons from the previous week. The domestic compound fertilizer finished - product pick - up was poor, and the slow fertilizer - preparation progress restricted the start - up, waiting for a certain relief of the compound fertilizer inventory pressure [4][25]. - **Industrial demand**: The operating load rate of melamine enterprises was 53.04%, a decrease of 2.07 percentage points from the previous week, with a weekly output of 2.614 tons. It is expected that the average operating load rate of domestic melamine enterprises will increase next week. The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores increased, and the demand support in the panel market improved slightly [28][29]. - **Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventories were 114.6 tons, an increase of 5.2 tons from the previous week, showing continuous inventory accumulation. Urea port inventories were 73.5 tons, a decrease of 6.2 tons from the previous week, with a slight reduction in port inventories. There were 8847 registered urea warehouse receipts, totaling 17.694 tons [4][32]. Key Points of Concern The report suggests focusing on the start - up situation of compound fertilizer, the reduction and maintenance of urea production devices, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [4].