Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 31.358 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.350 billion yuan, up 20.34% year-on-year for the same period [1] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 8.611 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, and a net profit of 2.940 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 10.36% year-on-year [1] Product Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the sales revenue of mid-to-high-end liquor reached 22.614 billion yuan, growing by 14.26% year-on-year, while other liquor categories generated 8.638 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 26.87% [2] - In Q3 2024, the sales revenue for mid-to-high-end liquor and other liquor categories were 6.188 billion yuan and 2.405 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.74% and 25.65% [2] - The Qinghua series showed a recovery in growth, and the increase in sales of the glass Fen product line contributed to the rapid growth of other liquor categories [2] Sales Channels - In the first three quarters of 2024, direct sales (group purchases) generated 0.179 billion yuan, a decline of 47.87% year-on-year, while agency sales reached 29.301 billion yuan, up 17.44% year-on-year, and e-commerce platform sales amounted to 1.772 billion yuan, growing by 35.64% [2] - In Q3 2024, the sales revenue from direct sales, agency sales, and e-commerce platforms were 0.051 billion yuan, 8.288 billion yuan, and 0.254 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -57.14%, +16.37%, and -46.19% [2] Regional Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the sales revenue in the domestic market was 11.900 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.58%, while the revenue from the external market was 19.353 billion yuan, with a growth of 21.44% [3] - In Q3 2024, the sales revenue from the external and domestic markets were 3.506 billion yuan and 5.087 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.12% and 10.95% [3] - The company added 5 distributors in the domestic market and 423 in the external market during the first three quarters of 2024 [3] Financial Metrics - The gross profit margin in Q3 2024 was 74.29%, a slight decrease of 0.75 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The tax and additional rate was 14.62%, down 1.40 percentage points year-on-year, while the sales expense ratio was 10.54%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points [3] - The net profit margin in Q3 2024 was 34.14%, down 0.31 percentage points year-on-year [3] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 37.325 billion yuan, 42.648 billion yuan, and 48.227 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.9%, 14.3%, and 13.1% respectively [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 12.368 billion yuan, 14.497 billion yuan, and 16.627 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 18.5%, 17.2%, and 14.7% respectively [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 10.14 yuan, 11.88 yuan, and 13.63 yuan for the years 2024 to 2026 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue growth of 12.8% and a net profit growth of 17.3% for the fiscal year 2024, with a slight decline in Q4 2024 revenue and net profit [7] - For Q1 2025, revenue and net profit increased by 7.7% and 6.2% respectively, with a rise in sales expense ratio impacting profit growth [7] - The company aims to enhance shareholder returns with a dividend payout ratio of 60% for 2024, resulting in a dividend yield of 3.0% [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 31,928 in 2023 to 36,011 in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.79% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million RMB) is expected to rise from 10,438 in 2023 to 12,243 in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.29% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 8.56 in 2023 to 10.04 in 2024 [1] Product and Regional Performance - The company's liquor revenue grew by 13.0% in 2024, with specific products like Qinghua and waist products showing strong performance [7] - Revenue growth in domestic and international markets was 11.7% and 13.8% respectively, indicating balanced growth across regions [7] Margin and Cost Structure - The gross margin improved by 0.9 percentage points to 76.2% in 2024, driven by effective inventory control [7] - The net profit margin increased by 1.3 percentage points to 34.0%, attributed to better gross margin and tax rate improvements [7] Future Projections - The company’s net profit is projected to reach 13,470 million RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.02% [1] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 18.39, 16.13, and 13.68 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue growth of 12.8% and a net profit growth of 17.3% for the fiscal year 2024, with a slight decline in Q4 2024 revenue and net profit [7] - For Q1 2025, revenue and net profit increased by 7.7% and 6.2% respectively, with a rise in sales expense ratio impacting profit growth [7] - The company aims to enhance shareholder returns with a dividend payout ratio of 60% for 2024, resulting in a dividend yield of 3.0% [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 31,928 in 2023 to 36,011 in 2024, and further to 40,058 in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.79% and 11.24% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 10,438 in 2023 to 12,243 in 2024, and to 13,470 in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.93% and 17.29% respectively [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 8.56 in 2023 to 10.04 in 2024, and to 11.04 in 2025 [1] Product and Regional Performance - The company's liquor revenue grew by 13.0% in 2024, with the Qinghua product line increasing by approximately 15% [7] - Revenue growth was observed both domestically and internationally, with increases of 11.7% and 13.8% respectively [7] - The company has implemented strict inventory control, leading to improved gross margin performance, with a gross margin of 76.2% for 2024 [7] Cost and Expense Management - The sales net profit margin improved by 1.3 percentage points to 34.0% due to enhancements in gross margin and a decrease in tax rates [7] - Sales and management expenses increased by 15.8% and 23.6% respectively, attributed to personnel expansion and salary increases [7] Future Profitability Outlook - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is adjusted to 13.5 billion RMB for 2025 and 15.4 billion RMB for 2026, with growth rates of 10% and 14% respectively [7] - The projected net profit for 2027 is 18.1 billion RMB, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase [7]