行业点评报告 | 食品饮料 证券研究报告 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2026 年 02 月 24 日 相关研究 【兴证食饮】餐饮链克危寻机，同时关 注食品春节备货-2026.01.21 【兴证食饮】保健品行业：赛道长青， 新消费重构增长逻辑-2026.01.12 分析师：沈昊 S0190525010006 shenhao@xyzq.com.cn 投资要点： 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/3 ⚫ 春节动销符合预期，高端突出，大众价格带表现稳健。根据渠道反馈，春节白酒动销普 遍下滑 10-20%，边际改善，整体表现符合此前预期。分区域看，经济基础、饮酒氛围 好的河南、四川、华东等市场反馈动销下滑约 10%左右，山东、安徽等市场下滑幅度约 20%。分场景看，受禁酒令影响商务宴请依旧承压，礼赠需求有所恢复，自饮及中低端 宴席需求相对稳健。春节期间，不同价格带动销表现有所分化，高端表现突出，i 茅台 上线普飞刺激需求，100-200 元大众价格带动销平稳，而次高端价格带承压较大、春节 期间动销下滑约 20%左右。 ⚫ 茅台市场化改革初步显效，基本面表现好于预期。茅台以消费者为中心，积极推进市场 化转型，强化 ...

Group 1: Structural Opportunities in the Fragrant Liquor Industry - The sales of fragrant liquor are expected to exceed 100 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 13% and profit growth of 17%, significantly outpacing the 3%-4% growth of sauce liquor [4] - The growth is driven by two main factors: the value enhancement led by Fenjiu, particularly its Qinghua series, and the expansion of the mid-to-high-end light bottle liquor segment, which is expected to grow over 25% in 2024 [4] - The characteristics of fragrant liquor, such as being easy to drink and quick to wake up, are making it a preferred choice for social gatherings, replacing lower-end boxed liquor [4] Group 2: Intensifying Competition and Survival Pressures - The industry is experiencing increased concentration, putting regional liquor companies under dual pressure from top brands like Fenjiu, which holds a 40% market share with nearly 40 billion yuan in revenue [5] - Regional liquor companies face ecological imbalances, lacking the collaborative model seen in sauce liquor, with many brands failing to exceed 10 billion yuan in revenue [5] - Over-reliance on a single production area, such as the Shanxi Xinghuacun region, exposes companies to risks from environmental policies and raw material price fluctuations [5] Group 3: Policy and Consumer Trends Reshaping the Market - The upgrade of the "strictest ban on alcohol" in 2025 will have structural impacts, extending regulation to state-owned enterprises and making high-end liquor demand shrink significantly [6] - Consumer trends are shifting towards rationality, with increased demand for quality transparency, diverse consumption scenarios, and local cultural recognition [6] Group 4: Core Development Challenges for Regional Liquor Companies - Regional liquor companies often suffer from weak brand recognition, with some like Tianyoude having 68.49% of revenue from within their province, struggling to break regional barriers [8] - Supply chain issues arise from a paradox of decentralization and concentration, leading to high production costs and inefficiencies [9] - The product structure is heavily skewed towards low-end offerings, with over 80% of regional fragrant liquor companies relying on products priced below 50 yuan [9] Group 5: Strategies for Breakthrough and Implementation Paths - Companies should focus on mid-to-high-end light bottle liquor priced between 50-150 yuan, creating differentiated products that emphasize quality and cultural elements [12] - A three-step approach for establishing model markets includes precise research, targeted breakthroughs in restaurant channels, and lightweight marketing strategies [12] - Digital upgrades and channel innovations are essential, including the introduction of blockchain for transparency and the development of an app for distributors [14] Group 6: Building Brand Recognition through Regional Culture - Companies should allocate 70% of resources to their home markets, utilizing local cultural events and community engagement to strengthen brand recognition [15] - Engaging younger consumers through social media and experiential marketing can help penetrate new market segments [15] - Establishing a positive public image through community projects can enhance brand perception and drive sales [15] Group 7: Conclusion on Sustainable Development - The breakthrough for regional fragrant liquor companies lies in balancing "category dividends" and "industry pressures," focusing on mid-to-high-end segments while building barriers through digitalization and regional branding [17] - Key to success includes maintaining the quality of pure grain brewing, expressing regional cultural differences, and fostering win-win channel relationships [17]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperforming the Market" [3][20]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is entering a phase of rapid performance clearing, with demand expected to show weak recovery as policy pressures ease. The industry is currently at a low valuation, and pessimistic expectations are fully priced in, indicating a clearer direction for future industry clearing [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-growth consumer goods sectors, where new products and channels are expected to drive market interest and valuation premiums for "scarce" growth targets [2]. - The report highlights the strategic responses of leading companies like Shanxi Fenjiu and Wuliangye to industry adjustments, focusing on brand value maintenance and consumer-driven strategies [3]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is expected to see a weak recovery in demand due to easing policy pressures, with leading companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu being recommended for their stable pricing and strong dividend yields [2]. - Shanxi Fenjiu's 2025 global dealer conference outlined a focus on national expansion, youth engagement, and precise consumer targeting, indicating a proactive approach to market share growth during industry adjustments [3]. - Wuliangye has adjusted its 2025 investment plan, reducing total investment while increasing brand promotion efforts, aiming to stabilize pricing and maintain brand integrity amid market discussions about price reductions [3]. Consumer Goods Sector - The report suggests focusing on high-growth consumer goods, with companies like Wancheng Group and Dongpeng Beverage showing promising growth trajectories [2]. - The consumer goods sector is characterized by ongoing innovation and new channel development, which are expected to attract market interest and valuation premiums [2].

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Fenjiu has maintained a unique market performance in 2025 despite the industry's deep adjustment period, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 remaining intact [1] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, revenue from Fenjiu and other liquor categories reached 3.217 billion and 65 million yuan respectively, showing year-on-year changes of +5.5% and -15.9% [1] - Domestic revenue for the same period was 1.101 billion yuan, down 7.5% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province was 2.181 billion yuan, up 12.7% year-on-year [1] Market Dynamics - The high base in domestic sales has led to significant inventory pressure, while the external market remains relatively healthy with substantial growth potential [1] - The secondary high-end Qinghua series has outperformed the industry, attributed to its unique flavor profile and high consumer loyalty, which is expected to continue [1] Strategic Outlook - With a well-structured product lineup and a healthy national distribution strategy, Fenjiu's market performance is significantly better than the industry average [1] - As the industry improves, both product structure and valuation are expected to have upward flexibility, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Group 1: Industry Strategies and Developments - The end-of-year dealer conference cycle has sparked widespread attention on the strategies of leading liquor companies for the upcoming year [1] - Wuliangye has clarified that it is not adjusting the payment price but rather increasing support for channel policies, with a focus on boosting sales [2] - The company has implemented a tiered subsidy support system for 2025, with subsidies returned in stages after payment [2] - Jinjiu has gained attention for its health claims and has seen a significant increase in young female users, with 400 million new female users added in the past two years [4] - Guizhou Wuyou Liquor faced a crisis due to a court ruling involving a total of 625.55 million yuan, leading to an apology from its chairman and a focus on stabilizing operations [5] - Shanxi Fenjiu reported a share reduction by Huaren, which remains the second-largest shareholder, as part of a fund liquidation process [6] - JD's discount supermarket has launched low-priced pure grain liquor, marking its eighth store opening nationwide [7] - iMoutai has introduced a wine authentication appointment service, allowing users to verify both new and old wines [8] - Wuliangye Group has completed its investment in Sichuan Airlines Group, aiming to explore smart logistics in air freight [9] Group 2: Company-Specific Updates - Shanxi Fenjiu's 2026 strategy focuses on national expansion, youth innovation, and international breakthroughs, with a goal of becoming a "world cultural famous liquor" [10][11] - The company aims to enhance its product offerings and address existing challenges in brand collaboration and market penetration [12] - Jinzhongzi Liquor announced the resignation of its deputy general manager, marking a significant leadership change within the company [13] - He Yanzhao has been appointed as the general manager of Bancheng Liquor, previously leading a marketing company [14] - Wu Jiawei, a board member of Zhujiang Beer, has retired due to reaching the legal retirement age [15] - Moutai has launched a commemorative liquor for the Panama International Exposition, which sold out on its first day [16][17] - Xinbahe has reported a 66% increase in sales for 2025, with new product launches aimed at expanding its market presence [18] - Anheuser-Busch plans to acquire a majority stake in BeatBox for approximately $490 million, enhancing its "Beyond Beer" product portfolio [20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance in a challenging industry environment, with a projected net profit of CNY 12.28 billion, CNY 13.13 billion, and CNY 14.42 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of +0.3%, +6.9%, and +9.8% respectively [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be CNY 10.07, CNY 10.76, and CNY 11.82 for the same period, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 19.9, 18.6, and 17.0 times [4] - The company has a robust product structure and a healthy national distribution, which has allowed it to outperform the industry [4] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue from Shanxi Fenjiu was CNY 32.17 billion, with a year-on-year increase of +5.5%, while other liquor categories saw a decline of -15.9% [5] - Provincial revenue was CNY 11.01 billion, down -7.5%, while out-of-province revenue reached CNY 21.81 billion, up +12.7% [5] - The company has actively optimized its distributor structure, canceling contracts with 33 distributors and penalizing over 400 for violations [6] Market Position - The company has maintained a competitive edge with its next-high-end Qinghua series, which has shown significant growth due to its unique flavor profile and high consumer loyalty [5] - Despite industry challenges, the profitability of distributors for Shanxi Fenjiu remains strong, supported by a diverse product mix and stable pricing [7] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Projected operating revenue for 2025 is CNY 37.865 billion, with a year-on-year growth of +5.1% [8] - The gross margin is expected to be 74.5%, and the net margin is projected at 32.4% for 2025 [8] - Return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to decline to 28.5% by 2025, reflecting a strategic focus on sustainable growth [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" due to strong brand power and relatively low historical valuation levels, with projected PE ratios for 2025-2027 at 20x, 19x, and 18x respectively [6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 11.67 billion, 12.27 billion, and 13.33 billion for the years 2025-2027, reflecting a year-on-year change of -4.6%, +5.1%, and +8.7% respectively [6]. - The company has a robust product matrix and competitive advantages in various price segments, maintaining a healthy channel state even during industry downturns, indicating significant growth potential if the industry rebounds [6]. - The marketing strategy for 2026 focuses on national expansion, targeting core customers and channels, and enhancing brand presence through differentiated marketing strategies aimed at various consumer demographics [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to be 36.03 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.1% [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at 11.67 billion for 2025, with a slight decrease from the previous year [5]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable around 75.7% for 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 29.9% [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company held its 2025 dealer conference recently, indicating ongoing engagement with its distribution network [4] - The company is expected to achieve stable growth despite industry adjustments, with a focus on high-quality development and maintaining reasonable inventory levels [6] - The financial forecast for 2025-2027 shows expected net profits of 11.67 billion, 12.27 billion, and 13.33 billion respectively, with a slight decline in 2025 followed by growth in subsequent years [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 36,032 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.1% [5] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 11,674 million, reflecting a decrease of 4.6% compared to the previous year [5] - The earnings per share for 2025 is forecasted to be 9.57 yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 20 [5] - The company maintains a gross margin of approximately 75.7% for 2025 [5] Market Performance - The company's stock closed at 192.16 yuan, with a market capitalization of 234,428 million [1] - The stock has a dividend yield of 3.15%, calculated based on the most recent dividend announcements [1] - The company’s price-to-book ratio stands at 6.0, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to its book value [1]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a significant restructuring and bubble clearing as of late 2025, with prices of premium products like Moutai dropping below official guidance and high inventory levels leading to widespread losses among distributors [1][3][5] Price Collapse and Inventory Issues - The price system in the liquor industry is experiencing a comprehensive loosening, with Moutai's wholesale price falling below 1600 yuan and e-commerce platforms offering prices as low as 1299 yuan, representing a decline of over 50% from its peak in 2021 [3][5] - This "benchmark effect" has spread across the industry, with major brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao also seeing significant price drops, leading to over 60% of liquor companies facing price inversions [5][7] - The industry is facing severe inventory issues, with turnover days reaching 900 days and a 300% increase in private inventory circulation, indicating a collapse of speculative buying expectations [5][7] Performance Data - The liquor industry reported its worst quarterly performance in nearly a decade in Q3 2025, with 20 listed companies in A-shares generating a total revenue of 3177.79 billion yuan (down 5.90% year-on-year) and a net profit of 1225.71 billion yuan (down 6.93% year-on-year) [7][9] - Over 80% of companies reported a decline in net profit, with Wuliangye's revenue plummeting by 52% and Yanghe's profit dropping by 158% [7] Changing Consumer Logic - The core issue facing the industry is the failure of traditional growth logic, as government and business consumption models have become ineffective due to strict regulations and economic downturns [9][11] - Younger consumers are increasingly rejecting the traditional liquor culture, leading to a significant decline in white liquor consumption at social events [9][11] - Consumer demand is shifting from a focus on social consumption to a balance of social and personal enjoyment, with new consumption scenarios like casual drinking and home consumption emerging as growth areas [11][12] Strategic Adjustments - Shanxi Fenjiu is one of the few companies maintaining growth, with a revenue increase of 5% in the first three quarters of 2025, attributed to its product advantages and market strategies [15][18] - The company plans to adopt a "dual-line" strategy focusing on traditional markets and expanding into younger and international markets, with new product lines aimed at attracting younger consumers [15][18] Industry Transformation - The liquor industry is transitioning from a focus on investment to a focus on quality, with a projected decline in consumption volume over the next decade [19][20] - Companies are expected to prioritize producing better quality liquor and adapting to changing consumer demands, with a notable increase in the storage of high-quality base liquor [20] - The industry is moving towards a new phase characterized by social drinking, personal enjoyment, and investment collection, necessitating higher standards for product innovation and brand management [19][20]

Core Insights - The event organized by Fenjiu in collaboration with Golf It Up in Toronto has garnered significant attention within the Chinese community, showcasing a blend of traditional Chinese liquor and high-end sports socializing [1][11] - Fenjiu's strategy focuses on high-end and international branding, aiming to integrate traditional Chinese liquor culture with modern lifestyle experiences [11][15] Event Highlights - The event featured a unique cocktail series called "Fen Yun San Diao," which includes three innovative cocktails that combine Fenjiu with various ingredients, enhancing the traditional drinking experience [3][5] - Interactive activities such as "recent flagpole challenge" and "fun putting competition" were organized to engage participants, deepening their brand recognition of Fenjiu [9][15] Brand Positioning - Fenjiu, as one of China's four famous liquors, emphasizes cultural heritage and quality, with the Qinghua series being central to its high-end product line [11][15] - The collaboration with Golf It Up aligns with Fenjiu's goal to connect with high-end consumer segments and promote Chinese liquor culture on an international stage [13][15]