文丨华策咨询 王云利 清香型白酒行业竞争格局：机遇与挤压并存 1、品类复兴态势下的结构性机遇 2024 年清香型白酒销售额突破 1000 亿元，同比增长 13%，利润增速达 17%，远超酱酒 3%-4% 的增速水平。这一增长得益于两大核心驱动：一是汾酒引 领的品类价值提升，其青花系列在 500-1000 元价格带快速放量，推动清香型高端化进程；二是中高线光瓶酒赛道扩容，消费升级使光瓶酒从 "低端代名 词" 转变为品质消费载体，2024 年该赛道增速超 25%，成为区域酒企差异化竞争的战略窗口。 清香型白酒 "入口顺、醒酒快" 的特性，适配家庭聚餐、朋友小聚等高频场景，正在替代百元盒装酒的聚饮市场。区域酒企深耕本地多年积累的纯粮酿造 信任基础，使其在性价比竞争中具备天然优势 —— 无需承担一线品牌的品牌溢价，可将成本聚焦于品质提升，精准契合中高线光瓶酒的核心需求。 2、马太效应加剧的生存挤压 行业集中度提升使区域酒企面临 "上挤下压" 的双重压力：头部品牌方面，汾酒以近 400 亿元体量占据清香型市场 40% 份额，通过 "深度分销 + 品牌高举 高打" 持续下沉；浓香、酱酒品牌亦跨界渗透，茅台、五粮液通过子品 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperforming the Market" [3][20]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is entering a phase of rapid performance clearing, with demand expected to show weak recovery as policy pressures ease. The industry is currently at a low valuation, and pessimistic expectations are fully priced in, indicating a clearer direction for future industry clearing [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-growth consumer goods sectors, where new products and channels are expected to drive market interest and valuation premiums for "scarce" growth targets [2]. - The report highlights the strategic responses of leading companies like Shanxi Fenjiu and Wuliangye to industry adjustments, focusing on brand value maintenance and consumer-driven strategies [3]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is expected to see a weak recovery in demand due to easing policy pressures, with leading companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu being recommended for their stable pricing and strong dividend yields [2]. - Shanxi Fenjiu's 2025 global dealer conference outlined a focus on national expansion, youth engagement, and precise consumer targeting, indicating a proactive approach to market share growth during industry adjustments [3]. - Wuliangye has adjusted its 2025 investment plan, reducing total investment while increasing brand promotion efforts, aiming to stabilize pricing and maintain brand integrity amid market discussions about price reductions [3]. Consumer Goods Sector - The report suggests focusing on high-growth consumer goods, with companies like Wancheng Group and Dongpeng Beverage showing promising growth trajectories [2]. - The consumer goods sector is characterized by ongoing innovation and new channel development, which are expected to attract market interest and valuation premiums [2].

开源证券研报指出，面对行业深度调整期，山西汾酒在2025年仍然走出了独立行情，维持2025-2027年 盈利预测。产品结构来看，2025年前三季度汾酒/其他酒类收入分别321.7/6.5亿元，同比分别 +5.5%/-15.9%。分地区看前三季度省内收入110.1亿元，同比-7.5%，省外收入218.1亿元，同比+12.7%。 省内基数高去库存压力较大，省外相对健康，仍有较大发展潜力。次高端青花系列明显好于行业，本质 原因是香型具有差异性，消费群体忠诚度高，未来这一优势仍将持续。得益于完善的产品结构、健康的 全国化布局，汾酒市场实际表现确实明显好于行业，后续随着行业改善，产品结构和估值都有弹性，维 持"买入"评级。 ...

年末经销商大会周期到来，新一年各家头部酒企的策略受到广泛关注。 五粮液回应：并非打款价调整 是渠道政策支持力度加大 12月5日，有市场消息称，五粮液将从明年起调整第八代五粮液价格，在1019元/瓶打款价不变的基础 上，给予打款折扣119元/瓶，即开票价为900元/瓶。据中国新闻周刊报道，有业内人士称如果算上厂家 补贴还可以降至800多元/瓶。 对此，21世纪经济报道记者向五粮液方面求证，获得的回应是，目前并非打款价调整，而是针对渠道的 支持政策力度加大。 21记者今年中秋国庆走访各类终端了解到，五粮液今年加大了对渠道的费用支持，目的是提振动销。有 知情人士介绍，今年五粮液的渠道费用进一步与开瓶扫码绑定，目的是让经销商实际销售给C端消费 者，避免窜货。 新一年的渠道政策，包括具体打款方式、如何补贴，还有待明确。针对2025年，五粮液采取的是阶梯式 补贴支持，补贴费用是打款后分阶段后返。 五粮液上次正式下调第八代五粮液的出厂价，还是十年前的2014年，当时白酒行业处于上一轮调整期， 第八代五粮液价格由729元下降到609元/瓶。 2024年2月， 第八代五粮液的出厂价上调了50元，首次站上了千元。 劲酒回应：并非 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance in a challenging industry environment, with a projected net profit of CNY 12.28 billion, CNY 13.13 billion, and CNY 14.42 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of +0.3%, +6.9%, and +9.8% respectively [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be CNY 10.07, CNY 10.76, and CNY 11.82 for the same period, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 19.9, 18.6, and 17.0 times [4] - The company has a robust product structure and a healthy national distribution, which has allowed it to outperform the industry [4] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue from Shanxi Fenjiu was CNY 32.17 billion, with a year-on-year increase of +5.5%, while other liquor categories saw a decline of -15.9% [5] - Provincial revenue was CNY 11.01 billion, down -7.5%, while out-of-province revenue reached CNY 21.81 billion, up +12.7% [5] - The company has actively optimized its distributor structure, canceling contracts with 33 distributors and penalizing over 400 for violations [6] Market Position - The company has maintained a competitive edge with its next-high-end Qinghua series, which has shown significant growth due to its unique flavor profile and high consumer loyalty [5] - Despite industry challenges, the profitability of distributors for Shanxi Fenjiu remains strong, supported by a diverse product mix and stable pricing [7] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Projected operating revenue for 2025 is CNY 37.865 billion, with a year-on-year growth of +5.1% [8] - The gross margin is expected to be 74.5%, and the net margin is projected at 32.4% for 2025 [8] - Return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to decline to 28.5% by 2025, reflecting a strategic focus on sustainable growth [8]

市公司 머副▷公司书 报告原因:有信息公布需要点评 型入(维持) | / הודדין | | | --- | --- | | 据: | 2025 年 12月 02 | | 市场数据: 2025 年 12 月 02 日 | | --- | | 192.16 收盘价（元） | | 一年内最高/最低（元） 228.93/168.30 | | 市净率 6.0 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） 3.15 | | 流通 A 股市值 (百万元) 234,428 | | 上证指数/深证成指 3,897.71/13,056.70 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | 基础数据: | 2025年09月30日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产 (元) | 31.79 | | 资产负债率% | 28.00 | | 总股本/流通 A 股 (百万) | 1,220/1,220 | | 流通 B 股/H 股 (百万) | -/- | -年内股价与大盛对比走势： and and the local of the local of the local to the local the local the loc ...

| 买入（维持） | | --- | | 市场数据： 2025 年 12 月 02 日 | 上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 报告原因：有信息公布需要点评 | 市场数据： 2025 年 12 月 02 日 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 192.16 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 228.93/168.30 | | 市净率 | 6.0 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 3.15 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 234,428 | | 上证指数/深证成指 3,897.71/13,056.70 | | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 31.79 | | 资产负债率% | 28.00 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 1,220/1,220 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 12-02 01-02 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a significant restructuring and bubble clearing as of late 2025, with prices of premium products like Moutai dropping below official guidance and high inventory levels leading to widespread losses among distributors [1][3][5] Price Collapse and Inventory Issues - The price system in the liquor industry is experiencing a comprehensive loosening, with Moutai's wholesale price falling below 1600 yuan and e-commerce platforms offering prices as low as 1299 yuan, representing a decline of over 50% from its peak in 2021 [3][5] - This "benchmark effect" has spread across the industry, with major brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao also seeing significant price drops, leading to over 60% of liquor companies facing price inversions [5][7] - The industry is facing severe inventory issues, with turnover days reaching 900 days and a 300% increase in private inventory circulation, indicating a collapse of speculative buying expectations [5][7] Performance Data - The liquor industry reported its worst quarterly performance in nearly a decade in Q3 2025, with 20 listed companies in A-shares generating a total revenue of 3177.79 billion yuan (down 5.90% year-on-year) and a net profit of 1225.71 billion yuan (down 6.93% year-on-year) [7][9] - Over 80% of companies reported a decline in net profit, with Wuliangye's revenue plummeting by 52% and Yanghe's profit dropping by 158% [7] Changing Consumer Logic - The core issue facing the industry is the failure of traditional growth logic, as government and business consumption models have become ineffective due to strict regulations and economic downturns [9][11] - Younger consumers are increasingly rejecting the traditional liquor culture, leading to a significant decline in white liquor consumption at social events [9][11] - Consumer demand is shifting from a focus on social consumption to a balance of social and personal enjoyment, with new consumption scenarios like casual drinking and home consumption emerging as growth areas [11][12] Strategic Adjustments - Shanxi Fenjiu is one of the few companies maintaining growth, with a revenue increase of 5% in the first three quarters of 2025, attributed to its product advantages and market strategies [15][18] - The company plans to adopt a "dual-line" strategy focusing on traditional markets and expanding into younger and international markets, with new product lines aimed at attracting younger consumers [15][18] Industry Transformation - The liquor industry is transitioning from a focus on investment to a focus on quality, with a projected decline in consumption volume over the next decade [19][20] - Companies are expected to prioritize producing better quality liquor and adapting to changing consumer demands, with a notable increase in the storage of high-quality base liquor [20] - The industry is moving towards a new phase characterized by social drinking, personal enjoyment, and investment collection, necessitating higher standards for product innovation and brand management [19][20]

【新华企业资讯11月24日】近日，由汾酒联合多伦多知名高尔夫会所Golf It Up举办的高球品酒会活动，在多伦多华人圈里引起广泛关注。在此次活动上， 汾酒携青花系列产品以及丝绸之路系列核心产品，以中国经典传统白酒酿造底蕴赋能高端运动社交，与近百位高尔夫爱好者、本地华人精英及流量达人博主 共同见证这场融合竞技激情、东方美学与品质品味的圈层盛会。 本次活动特别推出"汾韵三调"鸡尾酒系列： 汾光玫影（Rose Glow） 以玫瑰汾酒融合汤力水与红石榴，将花香与酒韵揉成温柔的甜调； 汾香茶语（Tea Harmony） 选用丝绸之路汾酒搭配中式茶，酒液裹着茶的清润，让传统味觉有了新层次； 荔露汾清（Lychee Breeze） 则以荔枝、薄荷衬出汾酒的爽利，酸甜凉感适配夏夜微醺。 三款特调既保留了汾酒的醇厚，又以创新搭配打破传统烈酒的饮用场景，将千年清香与现代调酒艺术创新融合，成为现场宾客的"打卡必选"。而青花汾酒30 领衔的纯饮区则尽显经典底蕴，其醇厚的口感，让嘉宾在轻酌慢品中感受传统工艺的匠心，领略东方白酒的纯粹质感。 9.1946 Neder K 0 La : 11928817 D % (Tags) f 0 r ...

哈喽，大家好，小玖今天要和大家聊聊白酒圈的大新闻：五粮液2025年第三季度的财报简直是"平地惊雷"，营收和净利润直接断崖式下跌，连多年的"茅五 领跑"格局都被打破了。 10月30日晚间，五粮液（000858.SZ）披露的三季度报告显示，单季度营收仅81.74亿元，同比下滑52.66%；归母净利润20.19亿元，同比骤降65.62%。 更让人意外的是，山西汾酒同期营收和净利润双双反超五粮液，结束了白酒行业长期由茅台、五粮液主导的双雄格局。 这组数据不仅让投资者哗然，更暴露了高端白酒行业深层的渠道危机。 价格倒挂成"元凶"，线上低价倒逼经销商承压 小玖梳理数据时发现，五粮液业绩暴跌的核心症结的是持续发酵的价格倒挂问题。 以核心大单品八代普五为例，目前线下经销商批价维持在850-900元/瓶，但电商平台的"百亿补贴"频道直接把价格压到640元左右，价差最高可达260元。 这种悬殊的价格差，让消费者宁愿冒着买到假酒的风险，也要选择线上渠道。更严峻的是，电商低价背后还暗藏假货隐患。 五粮液近期鉴定数据显示，线上平台购买的148瓶产品中，假冒产品占比达12%，其中77%的假货来自电商"百亿补贴"专区。 | | 本报告期 ...